Friday, October 28, 2011

Week 9: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2011-10-23




Legitimate Title Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.969 1 0.575 35 35.1 1 8.8 1 153.1 120

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 100 Kent St. 7 at   3 Alabama 48 98.6% 172
2011/09/10   2 Alabama 27 at  33 Penn State 11 79.5% 164
2011/09/17 106 North Texas 0 at   1 Alabama 41 99.1% 153
2011/09/24  12 Arkansas 14 at   1 Alabama 38 86.1% 145
2011/10/01   1 Alabama 38 at   3 Florida 10 58.5% 146
2011/10/08  86 Vanderbilt 0 at   1 Alabama 34 98.5% 140
2011/10/15   1 Alabama 52 at  72 Mississippi 7 96.9% 141
2011/10/22  42 Tennessee 6 at   1 Alabama 37 96.9% 138
2011/11/05   2 LSU 32 at   1 Alabama 36 71.9% 154
2011/11/12   1 Alabama 38 at  37 Mississippi St. 21 94.1% 161
2011/11/26   1 Alabama 42 at  29 Auburn 27 92.9% 159


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs LSU Tigers, 71.9%
Notes: The Crimson Tide have a week off before their last serious challenge. It wasn't that long ago that Alabama was the underdog and ultimately the spoiler. Hopefully they can avoid being on the flip side of that equation.


Boise State Broncos
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.918 3 0.468 74 30.9 5 11.8 6 163.5 82

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  23 Georgia 21 vs   2 Boise St. 35 84.9% 159
2011/09/16   2 Boise St. 40 at  65 Toledo 15 89.8% 181
2011/09/24  52 Tulsa 21 at   2 Boise St. 41 93.1% 162
2011/10/01  45 Nevada 10 at   2 Boise St. 30 91.2% 159
2011/10/07   2 Boise St. 57 at  72 Fresno St. 7 90.9% 161
2011/10/15   2 Boise St. 63 at 109 Colorado St. 13 98.2% 162
2011/10/22  62 Air Force 26 at   3 Boise St. 37 95.9% 158
2011/11/05   3 Boise St. 48 at 115 UNLV 20 98.7% 163
2011/11/12   8 TCU 31 at   3 Boise St. 36 69.8% 162
2011/11/19   3 Boise St. 41 at  66 SDSU 24 92.6% 167
2011/11/26 108 Wyoming 21 at   3 Boise St. 46 98.1% 165
2011/12/03 120 New Mexico 17 at   3 Boise St. 50 99.5% 165


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 69.8%
Notes: A slight scare last week, but beat TCU and they go to nearly 1-to-1 odds of finishing perfect.


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.912 4 0.482 67 31.4 4 12.3 7 160.8 100

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 115 SJSU 3 at   6 Stanford 57 98.8% 162
2011/09/10   6 Stanford 44 at  90 Duke 14 91.4% 155
2011/09/17   5 Stanford 37 at  40 Arizona 10 76.6% 155
2011/10/01  76 UCLA 19 at   4 Stanford 45 95.3% 152
2011/10/08  76 Colorado 7 at   5 Stanford 48 95.2% 155
2011/10/15   4 Stanford 44 at  82 Washington St. 14 93.1% 157
2011/10/22  44 Washington 21 at   4 Stanford 65 91.4% 159
2011/10/29   4 Stanford 36 at  24 USC 31 69.6% 163
2011/11/05   4 Stanford 40 at  59 Oregon St. 26 89.2% 164
2011/11/12   5 Oregon 34 at   4 Stanford 37 56.6% 173
2011/11/19  53 California 25 at   4 Stanford 39 89.4% 164
2011/11/26  20 Notre Dame 28 at   4 Stanford 37 77.2% 165


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.1
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 56.6%
Notes: Unfortunately for Stanford, Oregon keeps getting better, even with their key injuries. On a side note: look at Stanford's schedule to date and the ranks of their opponents. Now look at Boise State's. Now look at Stanford's. Now explain why Stanford currently has more respect than Boise.


LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.936 2 0.677 5 33.5 2 11.5 3 156.7 115

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03   5 Oregon 27 vs   9 LSU 40 45.4% 184
2011/09/15   7 LSU 19 at  35 Mississippi St. 6 69.4% 150
2011/09/24   5 LSU 47 at  21 West Virginia 21 64.4% 188
2011/10/01  62 Kentucky 7 at   5 LSU 35 93.0% 162
2011/10/08   7 Florida 11 at   3 LSU 41 66.6% 141
2011/10/15   3 LSU 38 at  32 Tennessee 7 81.4% 143
2011/10/22  24 Auburn 10 at   2 LSU 45 88.6% 144
2011/11/05   2 LSU 32 at   1 Alabama 36 28.1% 154
2011/11/12  97 Western Kentucky 21 at   2 LSU 46 98.0% 158
2011/11/19   2 LSU 44 at  74 Mississippi 24 95.3% 159
2011/11/25  15 Arkansas 31 at   2 LSU 41 80.8% 163


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.7
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 28.1%
Notes: Beat Alabama and the SEC West is yours, LSU. Well, after you beat Arkansas. But then it's completely yours.


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.589 46 0.357 105 24.9 18 21.6 77 179.3 6

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  78 UCLA 34 at  63 Houston 38 74.5% 170
2011/09/10  65 Houston 48 at 109 North Texas 23 73.3% 186
2011/09/17  63 Houston 35 at  77 LA Tech 34 51.2% 205
2011/09/29  63 Houston 49 at  96 UTEP 42 62.1% 178
2011/10/08  80 East Carolina 3 at  66 Houston 56 67.1% 182
2011/10/22  94 Marshall 28 at  52 Houston 63 84.8% 169
2011/10/27  98 Rice 31 at  46 Houston 45 87.2% 174
2011/11/05  46 Houston 43 at 109 UAB 31 85.9% 172
2011/11/10  46 Houston 47 at 113 Tulane 31 88.4% 170
2011/11/19  54 SMU 35 at  46 Houston 37 54.9% 170
2011/11/25  46 Houston 39 at  49 Tulsa 37 51.7% 177


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5.3
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 51.7%
Notes: Next.


Long Shots

Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.752 21 0.589 28 24.6 19 15.8 25 169.8 36

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  68 Troy 19 at  34 Clemson 43 80.6% 180
2011/09/17  14 Auburn 24 at  26 Clemson 38 47.7% 181
2011/09/24  13 Florida St. 30 at  28 Clemson 35 49.2% 166
2011/10/01  23 Clemson 23 at  11 Virginia Tech 3 26.8% 162
2011/10/08  88 Boston College 14 at  13 Clemson 36 92.0% 159
2011/10/15  19 Clemson 56 at  55 Maryland 45 67.3% 194
2011/10/22  40 North Carolina 38 at  23 Clemson 59 73.6% 181
2011/10/29  21 Clemson 35 at  41 Georgia Tech 33 55.2% 162
2011/11/12  72 Wake Forest 28 at  21 Clemson 39 82.9% 170
2011/11/19  21 Clemson 37 at  57 North Carolina St. 30 73.1% 168
2011/11/26  21 Clemson 32 at  17 South Carolina 34 48.5% 165


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-6.2
Most difficult game left: November 26, at South Carolina Gamecocks, 48.5%
Notes: Apparently Clemson is playing a football variant of "The First Team to 60 Wins". That's probably not the safest route to an undefeated season.


Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.800 12 0.559 38 26.9 9 15.4 20 181.5 3

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 110 LA-Lafayette 34 at  16 Oklahoma St. 61 96.7% 196
2011/09/08  34 Arizona 14 at  22 Oklahoma St. 37 69.2% 185
2011/09/18  15 Oklahoma St. 59 at  55 Tulsa 33 66.1% 202
2011/09/24  17 Oklahoma St. 30 at  14 Texas A&M 29 38.3% 199
2011/10/08  89 Kansas 28 at  18 Oklahoma St. 70 91.8% 186
2011/10/15  15 Oklahoma St. 38 at  29 Texas 26 51.6% 184
2011/10/22  15 Oklahoma St. 45 at  22 Missouri 24 42.6% 187
2011/10/29  50 Baylor 33 at  12 Oklahoma St. 45 83.3% 178
2011/11/05  30 Kansas St. 34 at  12 Oklahoma St. 39 68.1% 170
2011/11/12  12 Oklahoma St. 40 at  35 Texas Tech 35 66.0% 183
2011/11/18  12 Oklahoma St. 42 at  86 Iowa St. 27 89.4% 179
2011/12/03   6 Oklahoma 37 at  12 Oklahoma St. 34 34.6% 180


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-8.6
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 34.6%
Notes: They've gone from 3-to-1 underdogs to 2-to-1 underdogs. At least they're moving in the right direction.


Absolute Phonies

Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.690 30 0.513 58 26.2 10 19.0 60 159.2 106

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/17 104 Kent St. 0 at  57 Kansas St. 37 89.0% 153
2011/09/24  38 Kansas St. 28 at  15 Miami-FL 24 25.3% 144
2011/10/01  46 Baylor 35 at  36 Kansas St. 36 68.7% 168
2011/10/08  23 Missouri 17 at  35 Kansas St. 24 49.3% 161
2011/10/15  30 Kansas St. 41 at  43 Texas Tech 34 48.6% 193
2011/10/22  33 Kansas St. 59 at  87 Kansas 21 73.3% 166
2011/10/29   6 Oklahoma 36 at  30 Kansas St. 33 32.2% 169
2011/11/05  30 Kansas St. 34 at  12 Oklahoma St. 39 31.9% 170
2011/11/12  14 Texas A&M 35 at  30 Kansas St. 34 41.9% 168
2011/11/19  30 Kansas St. 34 at  32 Texas 33 52.1% 161
2011/12/03  86 Iowa St. 28 at  30 Kansas St. 39 82.3% 168


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-54.2
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Oklahoma State Cowboys, 31.9%
Notes: This patient has one week, two weeks, tops.


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