Saturday, September 28, 2013

Week 5: Saturday Predictions


  1Alabama37
 34Mississippi24
  1Alabama41
 30Mississippi21

 23Arizona St.32
 20USC28
 18Arizona St.31
 28USC27

 43Arkansas27
  4Texas A&M37
 34Arkansas27
 12Texas A&M35

 77Ball St.34
 89Toledo29
 67Ball St.34
 75Toledo27

 53Boise St.33
117Southern Miss.19
 43Boise St.45
112Southern Miss.13

 93Boston College18
  3Florida St.34
 83Boston College10
  3Florida St.48

 79Bowling Green32
111Akron22
 37Bowling Green31
114Akron17

109Buffalo21
 62Connecticut28
105Buffalo25
 89Connecticut24

 13Clemson39
103Wake Forest19
 20Clemson45
107Wake Forest13

104Colorado St.31
101UTEP27
104Colorado St.31
 98UTEP28

 75Duke44
116Troy29
 85Duke38
 82Troy27

 17Georgia33
 10LSU30
  8Georgia28
  4LSU24

115Hawaii27
 58Fresno St.37
102Hawaii21
 51Fresno St.38

120Idaho22
 92Temple31
121Idaho21
 77Temple35

 55Illinois36
121Miami-OH18
 96Illinois28
120Miami-OH14

 86Kentucky18
  7Florida27
 81Kentucky13
 10Florida34

108LA-Monroe31
105Tulane28
 94LA-Monroe38
110Tulane21

 91LA Tech34
107Army28
 72LA Tech35
103Army20

 70Minnesota25
 35Iowa28
 66Minnesota27
 61Iowa28

 46Missouri35
 95Arkansas St.22
 36Missouri38
 74Arkansas St.21

 82Nevada35
 96Air Force27
 86Nevada38
 97Air Force21

102New Mexico32
113UNLV28
108New Mexico34
116UNLV24

119New Mexico St.22
 68SDSU35
122New Mexico St.17
 62SDSU45

 37North Carolina29
 54East Carolina24
 47North Carolina35
 69East Carolina17

 50North Carolina St.38
112Central Michigan21
 46North Carolina St.42
111Central Michigan14

 19Notre Dame25
  8Oklahoma27
 15Notre Dame27
  5Oklahoma24

 21Ohio St.27
  5Wisconsin29
 13Ohio St.31
  9Wisconsin21

  2Oregon45
 63California23
  2Oregon52
 70California17

 49Oregon St.39
 94Colorado26
 39Oregon St.45
113Colorado17

 57Pittsburgh33
 76Virginia26
 58Pittsburgh35
 79Virginia21

 88Purdue32
 72Northern Ill.33
 78Purdue27
 53Northern Ill.31

 66Rice36
124FL-Atlantic14
 73Rice42
124FL-Atlantic10

 73South Florida18
 16Miami-FL25
 88South Florida17
 19Miami-FL38

 38TCU29
 64SMU24
 35TCU34
 64SMU17

 61Tennessee41
114South Alabama26
 49Tennessee45
115South Alabama13

106Texas State26
 69Wyoming30
 91Texas State27
 68Wyoming31

 12UCF30
 18South Carolina26
 38UCF27
  6South Carolina31

 83UTSA30
 67Houston29
 99UTSA31
 71Houston28

 56Vanderbilt37
 99UAB24
 26Vanderbilt42
101UAB14

 24Washington31
 26Arizona28
 33Washington31
 41Arizona24

 52Washington St.22
 14Stanford26
 84Washington St.17
 11Stanford35

 65West Virginia28
 15Oklahoma St.36
 48West Virginia24
  7Oklahoma St.35

100Western Kentucky29
 80Navy33
 95Western Kentucky28
 93Navy27

110Western Michigan27
 97Kent St.29
 90Western Michigan28
 87Kent St.31


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 5: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Sep 29 03:59:05 2013

Mississippi0Alabama25Final
USC41Arizona St.62Final
Texas A&M45Arkansas33Final
Toledo24Ball St.31Final
Southern Miss.7Boise St.60Final
Florida St.48Boston College34Final
Akron14Bowling Green31Final
Connecticut12Buffalo41Final
South Carolina28UCF25Final
Wake Forest7Clemson56Final
UTEP42Colorado St.59Final
Troy31Duke38Final
LSU41Georgia44Final
Fresno St.42Hawaii37Final
Temple24Idaho26Final
Miami-OH14Illinois50Final
Florida24Kentucky7Final
Army35LA Tech16Final
Iowa23Minnesota7Final
Arkansas St.19Missouri41Final
East Carolina55North Carolina31Final
Air Force42Nevada45Final
SDSU26New Mexico St.16Final
UNLV56New Mexico42Final
Central Michigan14North Carolina St.48Final
Tulane31LA-Monroe14Final
Oklahoma35Notre Dame21Final
Wisconsin24Ohio St.31Final
Colorado17Oregon St.44Final
California16Oregon55Final
Virginia3Pittsburgh14Final
Northern Ill.55Purdue24Final
FL-Atlantic14Rice18Final
Miami-FL49South Florida21Final
Wyoming21Texas State42Final
South Alabama24Tennessee31Final
SMU17TCU48Final
Houston59UTSA28Final
UAB24Vanderbilt52Final
Stanford55Washington St.17Final
Arizona13Washington31Final
Oklahoma St.21West Virginia30Final
Navy7Western Kentucky19Final
Kent St.32Western Michigan14Final

Friday, September 27, 2013

Week 5: Friday Predictions


 44BYU28
 71Middle Tenn.22
 17BYU42
100Middle Tenn.7

 81SJSU26
 42Utah St.30
 60SJSU24
 24Utah St.31



Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 5: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Sep 28 00:54:03 2013

Middle Tenn.10BYU37Final
Utah St.40SJSU12Final

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Week 5: Thursday Predictions


 28Georgia Tech28
 39Virginia Tech23
 40Georgia Tech31
 52Virginia Tech21

 74Tulsa29
 59Iowa St.30
 65Tulsa28
 56Iowa St.27


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 5: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Sep 26 23:29:04 2013

Virginia Tech17Georgia Tech10Final
Iowa St.38Tulsa21Final

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Week 5: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Tulane (0.124); Indiana (0.115); North Carolina St. (0.098); Baylor (0.077); Idaho (0.059)

Biggest drops: SDSU (-0.088); Michigan (-0.082); FIU (-0.074); Notre Dame (-0.073); Cincinnati (-0.063)

Full rankings after the jump.


Week 5: Top 25 -- RBA


Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.931 0.551 14 25.0 5 7.8 2 156.2 125
2 +1 Oregon 0.878 0.533 49 29.5 1 9.5 8 177.0 3
3 -1 Florida St. 0.875 0.548 21 26.9 3 7.6 1 165.4 85
4 +2 LSU 0.855 0.550 18 25.6 4 10.8 13 160.5 117
5 -- Oklahoma 0.855 0.548 20 22.5 14 8.4 3 172.0 16
6 -2 South Carolina 0.851 0.545 27 22.9 10 8.9 5 158.1 124
7 +3 Oklahoma St. 0.804 0.553 13 23.4 8 13.7 43 174.5 8
8 +6 Georgia 0.791 0.546 25 24.1 7 13.2 36 160.3 118
9 +3 Wisconsin 0.790 0.533 48 22.3 17 10.5 11 161.5 114
10 +1 Florida 0.786 0.561 4 17.7 46 8.9 6 161.0 115
11 -3 Stanford 0.785 0.542 32 21.2 21 11.2 14 166.9 64
12 +1 Texas A&M 0.785 0.557 8 25.0 6 12.0 24 173.9 10
13 +2 Ohio St. 0.781 0.528 55 22.7 12 12.4 29 160.1 119
14 -7 Michigan 0.751 0.544 28 21.6 20 13.0 33 166.3 72
15 -6 Notre Dame 0.749 0.567 3 17.5 50 9.4 7 164.3 98
16 +1 Kansas St. 0.744 0.535 45 22.6 13 13.9 46 165.6 81
17 +7 BYU 0.736 0.483 77 14.7 78 9.5 9 169.6 28
18 +4 Arizona St. 0.733 0.537 38 22.7 11 14.0 49 174.7 6
19 -- Miami-FL 0.733 0.554 10 23.0 9 11.8 21 162.7 107
20 -- Clemson 0.727 0.531 52 22.3 16 12.5 30 168.3 44
21 -3 Penn State 0.725 0.535 44 18.2 38 9.6 10 164.6 95
22 NA Baylor 0.716 0.560 6 27.9 2 14.5 50 174.7 7
23 -- Michigan St. 0.716 0.546 23 13.6 88 8.5 4 167.0 63
24 NA Utah St. 0.700 0.496 69 17.9 44 11.7 19 169.1 31
25 NA UCLA 0.698 0.546 24 22.1 18 13.0 32 168.9 33
Rankings through games of 2013-09-22

New entries: Baylor, Utah St., UCLA.

Dropped out: Cincinnati, Louisville, Vanderbilt.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 5: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Middle Tenn. (0.258); Memphis (0.228); Iowa (0.203); Washington St. (0.187); Mississippi St. (0.183)

Biggest drops: Arkansas St. (-0.173); West Virginia (-0.147); Troy (-0.141); Western Michigan (-0.138); SJSU (-0.107)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 5: Top 25 -- TFG


Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.959 0.649 19 29.7 4 9.1 2 148.8 123
2 -- Oregon 0.950 0.568 37 31.5 2 10.4 7 175.5 26
3 -- Florida St. 0.943 0.550 44 26.9 6 9.4 3 154.2 117
4 -- Texas A&M 0.899 0.740 5 32.0 1 14.1 33 185.5 7
5 -- Wisconsin 0.896 0.466 75 22.6 20 10.0 6 156.7 113
6 NA Louisville 0.879 0.307 113 24.4 10 11.6 12 153.9 118
7 -- Florida 0.872 0.629 21 18.1 51 8.8 1 158.1 107
8 -2 Oklahoma 0.869 0.510 57 21.1 30 10.4 8 168.6 50
9 +10 Baylor 0.862 0.388 95 31.0 3 15.6 51 184.6 9
10 -2 LSU 0.856 0.528 54 24.2 11 12.4 20 161.8 90
11 +9 Penn State 0.856 0.488 68 18.9 41 9.7 5 170.9 41
12 -1 UCF 0.842 0.296 116 24.1 12 12.8 24 153.2 121
13 -- Clemson 0.839 0.703 9 24.4 9 13.2 26 176.2 23
14 -5 Stanford 0.839 0.560 39 22.3 22 12.0 14 157.0 110
15 +2 Oklahoma St. 0.835 0.591 31 26.3 7 14.3 38 186.4 6
16 -6 Miami-FL 0.830 0.372 98 22.1 25 12.2 18 161.8 89
17 -5 Georgia 0.827 0.664 15 27.0 5 15.0 46 166.6 57
18 -4 South Carolina 0.806 0.708 7 22.3 21 13.0 25 159.4 102
19 +2 Notre Dame 0.796 0.586 34 20.1 34 12.1 17 164.2 74
20 +4 USC 0.795 0.534 48 18.7 43 11.3 11 156.5 114
21 -3 Ohio St. 0.792 0.464 76 23.4 14 14.1 34 166.6 58
22 +3 UCLA 0.790 0.486 71 22.1 24 13.4 28 178.5 17
23 -8 Arizona St. 0.774 0.777 1 25.2 8 15.9 58 181.2 13
24 NA Washington 0.771 0.654 18 19.5 38 12.3 19 168.8 47
25 -3 Michigan 0.763 0.446 83 23.4 15 15.1 48 156.8 112
Rankings through games of 2013-09-22

New entries: Louisville, Washington.

Dropped out: Michigan St., Kansas St..

Things we learned this week:

  • It's possible to game the TFG rankings by running up the score on a punching bag (hi, Louisville and Baylor).
  • Penn State does a better job of "all defense, no offense" than Michigan State.
  • This year's Notre Dame 'D' gave up 13 points to this year's MSU offense? Tsk tsk tsk.
  • Both the top 25 and the top 10 continue to be more competitive than last year.

With Alabama's win over A&M, and the relative decline of Stanford mean that both Alabama and Oregon should have a relatively clear path to the title game. It's not exactly uncommon wisdom right now, but it is -- as they say -- what it is. For years now Oregon has been struggling to get their strength-and-pace-adjusted defense on the same level as their offense, and so far this year they seem to be on the right track.

If Florida State can keep from Florida State-ing themselves this year, they'll be in good position to win the ACC. Then again, it's the ACC, so who knows?

Further down the rankings there's a mish-mash of teams who either are temporarily overrated (Louisville, Baylor, Penn State, and UCF), already have a loss and are in line waiting for some number of other teams to fail (Texas A&M and Wisconsin), have some serious flaw (Oklahoma, Florida and Clemson), or just don't quite have the ability to make it through a tough season undefeated (LSU, Stanford, and Oklahoma State).

Over the next week or two we'll see teams really starting to get into the meat of their schedule, and the week after that TFG will start printing our conference and undefeated projections. Until then ....


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Week 4: Saturday Predictions


 98Air Force28
 74Wyoming31
 92Air Force27
 75Wyoming31

113Akron31
 81LA-Lafayette34
119Akron24
 76LA-Lafayette35

  1Alabama45
109Colorado St.17
  1Alabama48
111Colorado St.3

105Army30
112Wake Forest28
104Army24
108Wake Forest27

 19Baylor46
103LA-Monroe25
 42Baylor45
 88LA-Monroe17

 31BYU29
 36Utah28
 24BYU34
 55Utah21

117Central Michigan27
 89Toledo33
109Central Michigan28
 70Toledo38

 79Connecticut23
 22Michigan30
 81Connecticut17
  7Michigan34

 83Duke28
 44Pittsburgh31
 77Duke28
 58Pittsburgh31

119Eastern Michigan25
 70Ball St.33
117Eastern Michigan21
 63Ball St.34

124FL-Atlantic20
104Middle Tenn.28
123FL-Atlantic17
 99Middle Tenn.31

  7Florida31
 58Tennessee22
 11Florida35
 40Tennessee17

 12Georgia37
 82North Texas22
 14Georgia48
100North Texas14

 35Georgia Tech33
 48North Carolina28
 50Georgia Tech31
 45North Carolina27

 54Indiana32
 50Missouri30
 90Indiana27
 41Missouri35

 59Iowa31
 92Western Michigan23
 64Iowa34
 87Western Michigan20

106Kansas28
 84LA Tech30
105Kansas27
 65LA Tech31

 27Louisville37
120FIU18
 21Louisville42
110FIU6

  8LSU33
 56Auburn22
  6LSU38
 60Auburn14

 61Maryland28
 45West Virginia32
 62Maryland28
 43West Virginia31

123Massachusetts17
 41Vanderbilt34
124Massachusetts10
 25Vanderbilt48

107Memphis26
 76Arkansas St.29
118Memphis24
 71Arkansas St.31

121Miami-OH21
 53Cincinnati35
116Miami-OH24
 16Cincinnati38

 78Minnesota27
 62SJSU29
 66Minnesota28
 56SJSU27

 57Mississippi St.33
 93Troy23
 46Mississippi St.38
 83Troy20

 90Nevada32
110Hawaii27
 74Nevada38
102Hawaii24

 21Notre Dame25
 16Michigan St.21
  9Notre Dame27
 23Michigan St.17

 20Penn State34
 88Kent St.21
 18Penn State41
 73Kent St.14

 64Rice31
 65Houston28
 72Rice31
 80Houston27

 49Rutgers22
 30Arkansas24
 48Rutgers27
 29Arkansas24

 77SDSU25
 39Oregon St.29
 51SDSU27
 27Oregon St.31

 24USC27
 34Utah St.24
 38USC28
 30Utah St.24

  9Stanford31
 15Arizona St.29
  8Stanford34
 22Arizona St.20

 51Syracuse36
102Tulane24
 47Syracuse35
120Tulane10

 46Texas30
 23Kansas St.32
 35Texas28
 17Kansas St.38

  4Texas A&M45
 60SMU26
 13Texas A&M42
 61SMU20

 37Texas Tech37
100Texas State23
 49Texas Tech42
 93Texas State17

 25UCLA45
122New Mexico St.19
 31UCLA52
121New Mexico St.13

 97UTEP31
 86UTSA30
 98UTEP34
 91UTSA27

 42Virginia Tech34
 80Marshall25
 52Virginia Tech35
 78Marshall17

 69Washington St.34
118Idaho20
 97Washington St.38
122Idaho20

  5Wisconsin35
 87Purdue19
 12Wisconsin42
 86Purdue13


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.