Sunday, October 23, 2011

Week 8: Saturday Recap

Yet another brutal week thanks to some high-profile upsets.

Week 8
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
TFG  37.1 -  12.9 74.3  35 -  15 70.0
RBA  37.5 -  12.5 75.0  32 -  18 64.0

Game of the Week
Oklahoma State Cowboys 45, Missouri Tigers 24; 187 plays

(22) Missouri 34, (15) Oklahoma St. 33 (57.4%); 176 plays

I said in the preview that this was kind of a risky pick, but it wasn't for the reasons I expected. The shortest scoring drive the Tigers had was 72 yards, and that only netted them a field goal. The Cowboys had four drives that started in Missouri territory, and that netted them 21 points. I think I see Missouri's problem.

(9) Oklahoma St. 34, (28) Missouri 27 (63.8%); 173 plays.

This one was close at the half. Then, Oklahoma State opened it up thanks to the generosity of the Missouri offense, which provided five turnovers in the the second half.  This is in direct conflict with RBA's prediction, but it was that sort of week.  With Oklahoma's loss against Texas Tech, the Cowboys are left holding the banner for the Big XII after their 45-24 victory.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game
Michigan State Spartans 37, Wisconsin Badgers 31; 151 plays

(3) Wisconsin 31, (20) Michigan St. 17 (72.7%); 164 plays

Wisconsin started out with a flourish. Then, Michigan State came back to take a lead. Just when you thought the game was headed for overtime after the Badgers scored 14 points in the 4th quarter, this happened. This kind of freak ending is completely unpredictable, but RBA clearly underestimated the Spartan offense or overestimated the Badger defense. We can scratch one more off the list of unbeatens.

(6) Wisconsin 34, (14) Michigan St. 30 (57.7%); 159 plays

Chalk one up for the immovable object. And that ending?

Unstoppable Force 5, Immovable Object 2

Shootout of the Week
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 27, SMU Mustangs 3; 158 plays

(59) Southern Miss. 35, (46) SMU 34 (53.9%); 169 plays

Of course once we choose a game as the shootout of the week, each team takes that opportunity to put up its lowest point total in a month (or all season). Maybe we should just start tracking how many times the shootout of the week turns into the "they missed the line by HOW much?" game of the week.

(32) Southern Miss. 34, (50) SMU 28 (52.2%); 167 plays

This one wasn't quite the shootout we expected.  In fact, the Golden Eagles finally decided to develop a defense en route to a 27-3 victory.  The Mustangs wasted several drives, including two interceptions, a missed FG, and a turnover on downs.  Again, it was that kind of week for RBA.

Coin Toss Game of the Week
North Carolina State Wolfpack 28, Virginia Cavaliers 14; 172 plays

(87) Virginia 29, (72) North Carolina St. 28 (58.3%); 165 plays

Typical ACC game. I pick the Virginia in a close game, and they wind up losing by 14.  Sure, why not cap off a horrible week with a missed toss-up?

(57) North Carolina St. 32, (78) Virginia 31 (54.7%); 169 plays

RBA fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never pick UVa when a coin toss is on the line"! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha...
[watches the rest of the week collapse around him]

Coin Toss Record: TFG 4, RBA 2.

2011 - 2012 Season
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
TFG 288.4 -  96.6 74.9 281 - 104 73.0
RBA 284.8 - 100.2 74.0 279 - 106 72.5

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