Monday, December 31, 2012

Week 19: Monday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Mon Dec 31 20:58:04 2012

LSU24Clemson25Final
USC7Georgia Tech21Final
Tulsa31Iowa St.17Final
Vanderbilt38North Carolina St.24Final

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Week 18: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Dec 29 23:44:04 2012

Navy28Arizona St.62Final
TCU16Michigan St.17Final
Texas31Oregon St.27Final
Air Force14Rice33Final
West Virginia14Syracuse38Final

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part VI


Today is Part VI of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl
    Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Northwestern Wildcats
  • Chick-fil-A Bowl
    Clemson Tigers vs LSU Tigers
  • Capital One Bowl
    Georgia Bulldogs vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
  • Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
    Michigan State Spartans vs TCU Horned Frogs
  • Valero Alamo Bowl
    Oregon State Beavers vs Texas Longhorns
Full previews after the jump ....

Friday, December 28, 2012

Week 18: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Dec 28 22:28:05 2012

Texas Tech34Minnesota31Final
Ohio45LA-Monroe14Final
Virginia Tech13Rutgers10Final

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Week 18: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Dec 27 23:14:05 2012

UCLA26Baylor49Final
SJSU29Bowling Green20Final
Duke34Cincinnati48Final

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part V


Today is Part V of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • New Era Pinstripe Bowl
    Syracuse Orange vs West Virginia Mountaineers
  • AutoZone Liberty Bowl
    Iowa State Cyclones vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane
  • Russell Athletic Bowl
    Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Virginia Tech Hokies
  • BBVA Compass Bowl
    Mississippi Rebels vs Pittsburgh Panthers
  • Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
    Baylor Bears vs UCLA Bruins
Full previews after the jump ....

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Week 18: Wednesday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Wed Dec 26 20:58:04 2012

Western Kentucky21Central Michigan24Final

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part IV


Today is Part IV of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
    Rice Owls vs Air Force Falcons
  • Hyundai Sun Bowl
    Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs USC Trojans
  • GoDaddy.com Bowl
    Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Kent State Golden Flashes
  • Discover Orange Bowl
    Florida State Seminoles vs Northern Illinois Huskies
  • Allstate Sugar Bowl
    Florida Gators vs Louisville Cardinals
Full previews after the jump ....

Monday, December 24, 2012

Week 18: Monday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Mon Dec 24 21:28:05 2012

SMU43Fresno St.10Final

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Week 17: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Dec 22 16:58:04 2012

Washington26Boise St.28Final
LA-Lafayette43East Carolina34Final

Friday, December 21, 2012

Week 17: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Dec 21 19:58:04 2012

UCF38Ball St.17Final

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Week 17: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Dec 20 21:28:04 2012

SDSU6BYU23Final

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part III


Today is Part III of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
    Fresno State Bulldogs vs SMU Mustangs
  • Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
    North Carolina State Wolfpack vs Vanderbilt Commodores
  • R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
    East Carolina Pirates vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
  • MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
    Boise State Broncos vs Washington Huskies
  • San Diego Country Credit Union Poinettia Bowl
    BYU Cougars vs San Diego State Aztecs
Full previews after the jump ....

Monday, December 17, 2012

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part II


Today is Part II of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Belk Bowl
    Cincinnati Bearcats vs Duke Blue Devils
  • Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
    Bowling Green Falcons vs San Jose State Spartans
  • Heart of Dallas Bowl
    Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Purdue Boilermakers
  • AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
    Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Ohio Bobcats
  • Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
    Ball State Cardinals vs UCF Knights
Full previews after the jump ....

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Week 16: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Dec 15 16:58:03 2012

Utah St.41Toledo151:42 4th
Nevada48Arizona49Final

Friday, December 14, 2012

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part I


Today is Part I of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Little Caesar's Bowl
    Central Michigan Chippewas vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
  • Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl
    Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
  • Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
    Arizona State Sun Devils vs Navy Midshipmen
  • Gildan New Mexico Bowl
    Arizona Wildcats vs Nevada Wolf Pack
  • Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
    Toledo Rockets vs Utah State Aggies
Full previews after the jump ....

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Week 15: Saturday Predictions


102Army34
 71Navy42
114Army28
 84Navy31


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Monday, December 3, 2012

Week 15: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Texas State (0.115); Louisville (0.107); Pittsburgh (0.105); West Virginia (0.052); Wisconsin (0.049)

Biggest drops: Kansas (-0.071); South Florida (-0.054); Rutgers (-0.053); Georgia Tech (-0.038); Nebraska (-0.033)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 15: Top 25 -- TFG


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.968 0.627 17 38.0 1 9.7 1 148.8 124
2 -- Notre Dame 0.888 0.606 20 25.8 24 11.2 2 157.8 103
3 -- LSU 0.878 0.665 7 26.9 16 12.2 3 162.3 83
4 -- Florida 0.873 0.673 4 26.7 18 12.3 4 156.7 109
5 -- Oregon 0.867 0.551 45 31.8 3 15.0 11 180.8 8
6 -- Texas A&M 0.854 0.666 6 27.7 12 13.7 6 185.4 4
7 -- Florida St. 0.840 0.518 59 29.6 7 15.2 12 156.6 110
8 -- Stanford 0.829 0.560 41 26.8 17 14.3 10 160.7 90
9 -- Oklahoma 0.828 0.638 13 25.9 23 13.8 7 175.6 13
10 +2 Wisconsin 0.828 0.567 36 32.6 2 17.4 30 156.3 111
11 +3 Georgia 0.819 0.588 30 29.6 6 16.2 20 162.9 76
12 -2 Boise St. 0.811 0.394 95 27.6 13 15.4 14 156.1 112
13 -2 South Carolina 0.807 0.603 23 28.0 10 15.8 17 156.9 107
14 -1 Oklahoma St. 0.789 0.630 15 26.2 21 15.5 15 184.0 6
15 -- Kansas St. 0.788 0.606 21 31.7 4 18.8 41 154.8 117
16 -- Michigan 0.777 0.567 37 29.7 5 18.1 36 151.9 123
17 +1 USC 0.763 0.565 38 29.0 8 18.2 37 162.3 82
18 +1 Ohio St. 0.758 0.533 52 28.5 9 18.0 34 162.0 86
19 -2 Nebraska 0.740 0.642 10 26.4 20 17.3 28 168.4 43
20 -- Michigan St. 0.735 0.605 22 19.9 70 13.3 5 163.0 75
21 +1 BYU 0.730 0.443 72 21.1 57 14.2 9 162.9 78
22 +2 Cincinnati 0.722 0.503 62 23.0 43 15.7 16 166.8 52
23 -- TCU 0.721 0.581 32 23.0 41 15.8 18 163.3 70
24 -3 Texas 0.718 0.592 27 26.4 19 18.2 38 159.5 95
25 -- Penn State 0.712 0.537 51 19.9 69 13.9 8 169.8 35
Rankings through games of 2012-12-02

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.

Well, here we are: the Alabama/Notre Dame matchup we predicted back in week eight. The SEC title game was a bit closer than we projected, but weird plays like a FG blocked and returned for a touchdown -- along with the ensuing 10-point swing -- can do that. While previous years have been the Year of Non-BCS Teams, this was clearly the Year of the SEC. The SEC holds four of the top six spots in the TFG rankings, and two more in the top 15. The numbers point pretty heavily to yet another Alabama championship, so let's look at some of the other teams.

Notre Dame improved 2.1 PPH on offense, but 3.9 PPH on defense. Even small improvements on defense can yield big results in your win-loss record, and 3.9 PPH is big. Even if Notre Dame hadn't improved their offense at all from last year, they'd be ranked fifth in our top 25 right now.

This year's Oregon team is a slight improvement over last year's model; their offensive efficiency went up 1.9 PPH, and their defense only slipped by 0.3 PPH. Another year of progress along those lines, and they'll be the clear #2 team in the country.

Florida State is good, but ... well, still in the ACC.

Stanford experienced a huge drop-off on offense -- a full 7.7 PPH -- but actually picked it up on defense by 2.4 PPH. That was enough to offset the loss of Andrew Luck, and resulted in only a 0.026 drop in expected win percentage.

Wisconsin has been erratic, winning big against "meh" teams, and losing by a field goal to good teams. Seriously, four of their five losses have been by three points (the fifth was by a touchdown to Ohio State). They're another team that had a big drop-off on offense (6.6 PPH) but clawed some of it back on defense (1.0 PPH).

Boise State entered a rebuilding year, and managed to do pretty well for themselves. They had two losses -- one on the road at Michigan State, and a freak loss to SDSU where the Aztecs got 14 of their 21 points off a kickoff return for a TD and an 8-yard drive off a turnover -- and blew through the rest of their schedule. The Broncos will be moving to the Big East next year, and considering the top Big East team in the TFG rankings is (22) Cincinnati, look for Boise to establish themselves as early favorites.

As for the coming bowl season, watch for our annual bowl previews starting in a few weeks.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 15: Top 25 -- RBA


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 1.000 0.549 14 26.4 2 5.9 1 156.3 124
2 -- Oregon 0.992 0.530 50 27.9 1 11.4 20 177.1 3
3 -- Notre Dame 0.992 0.567 1 18.7 38 7.2 2 164.4 98
4 -- Florida 0.983 0.559 5 18.1 43 8.9 3 161.2 114
5 -- LSU 0.975 0.548 16 22.9 9 9.0 4 160.4 116
6 +1 Texas A&M 0.967 0.555 7 25.9 3 11.3 19 173.7 10
7 -1 Georgia 0.967 0.545 24 23.6 6 11.1 14 160.0 117
8 +1 South Carolina 0.950 0.545 26 23.2 7 9.7 6 158.0 123
9 -1 Kansas St. 0.941 0.532 48 25.6 4 14.2 41 165.6 80
10 +4 Stanford 0.932 0.543 29 20.5 23 10.0 8 167.2 60
11 -- Oklahoma 0.932 0.547 19 22.8 10 11.5 24 172.0 15
12 -2 Oklahoma St. 0.932 0.552 11 22.8 11 14.0 39 174.4 7
13 +3 Wisconsin 0.932 0.532 47 22.2 16 11.2 17 161.7 112
14 -1 Ohio St. 0.924 0.530 49 21.5 20 13.0 30 159.8 118
15 -3 Boise St. 0.915 0.466 93 19.0 31 10.1 10 167.9 52
16 -1 Florida St. 0.878 0.547 17 22.0 17 9.3 5 165.6 82
17 -- USC 0.876 0.535 39 22.7 12 11.5 23 167.0 68
18 -- Clemson 0.875 0.527 56 23.2 8 13.9 38 168.1 48
19 +2 Oregon St. 0.851 0.547 18 17.7 49 10.7 13 170.9 21
20 +2 Michigan 0.851 0.545 23 22.5 15 11.2 18 166.4 73
21 +2 Penn State 0.845 0.539 32 16.6 60 9.8 7 164.5 93
22 +2 Utah St. 0.839 0.494 70 17.5 53 11.5 22 169.0 33
23 -4 Nebraska 0.831 0.534 43 18.8 35 12.1 25 167.1 65
24 NA BYU 0.822 0.482 77 16.7 59 10.2 11 168.9 35
25 -- Michigan St. 0.821 0.545 22 15.4 74 10.0 9 166.9 69
Rankings through games of 2012-12-02


New entries: BYU.

Dropped out: Rutgers.

We arrive at the "end" of the regular season (only Army-Navy remaining) with few surprises.  Alabama finishes the regular season in the top spot thanks to the #1 defense and #2 offense.  Oregon and Notre Dame finish tied for second thanks to the #1 offense and #2 defense, respectively.  Looking forward to the national championship game, RBA will favor the Crimson Tide; the only question is how much.

SEC runner-up Georgia finishes tied with Texas A&M for #6 behind #4 Florida and #5 LSU.  Georgia fans should thank their lucky stars that SEC schedule makers continue to push the easy button for the Bulldogs.  They cakewalked through Auburn and Ole Miss from the west as the Gators played LSU and Texas A&M and the Gamecocks played LSU and Arkansas without a healthy Marcus Lattimore.  You have to wonder if the Bulldogs were really the best team in the SEC East.

Personally, I'm most surprised by Stanford finishing the regular season in the top 10.  There's no way I would have expected a team to lose Andrew Luck, beat Oregon, nearly beat Notre Dame on the road, and find their way into the Rose Bowl.  Much like Texas A&M beating Alabama, that's why they play the games.

Our mid-major of the year remains Boise State, but kudos to Utah State finishing the season at #22.


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Sunday, December 2, 2012

Week 15: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Arkansas St. (0.065); Pittsburgh (0.038); Texas State (0.034); West Virginia (0.028); Hawaii (0.023)

Biggest drops: Middle Tenn. (-0.060); South Florida (-0.043); Kansas (-0.035); Nebraska (-0.029); South Alabama (-0.019)

Full rankings after the jump.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Week 14: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Dec 2 00:28:03 2012

Georgia28Alabama32Final
Middle Tenn.0Arkansas St.45Final
Oklahoma St.34Baylor41Final
Cincinnati34Connecticut17Final
LA-Lafayette35FL-Atlantic21Final
Georgia Tech15Florida St.21Final
South Alabama7Hawaii23Final
Texas24Kansas St.42Final
Wisconsin70Nebraska31Final
Boise St.27Nevada21Final
Pittsburgh27South Florida3Final
New Mexico St.28Texas State66Final
Oklahoma24TCU17Final
UCF27Tulsa33Final
Kansas10West Virginia59Final

Week 14: Saturday Predictions


  1Alabama42
 14Georgia29
  1Alabama31
  6Georgia17

 58Arkansas St.37
 88Middle Tenn.32
 63Arkansas St.34
 91Middle Tenn.24

 36Baylor37
 13Oklahoma St.43
 34Baylor35
 10Oklahoma St.41

 69Connecticut25
 24Cincinnati32
 76Connecticut17
 32Cincinnati31

113FL-Atlantic32
 65LA-Lafayette41
112FL-Atlantic24
 69LA-Lafayette35

  7Florida St.45
 56Georgia Tech34
 15Florida St.38
 47Georgia Tech21

114Hawaii35
117South Alabama34
110Hawaii35
116South Alabama24

 15Kansas St.38
 21Texas35
  8Kansas St.41
 30Texas24

 17Nebraska34
 12Wisconsin37
 19Nebraska28
 16Wisconsin24

 64Nevada31
 10Boise St.42
 64Nevada24
 12Boise St.34

 70South Florida28
 29Pittsburgh34
 79South Florida24
 49Pittsburgh25

 23TCU31
  9Oklahoma35
 33TCU28
 11Oklahoma31

106Texas State40
123New Mexico St.32
111Texas State34
124New Mexico St.21

 44Tulsa33
 33UCF35
 50Tulsa27
 36UCF24

 38West Virginia42
102Kansas30
 46West Virginia42
100Kansas17


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 14: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week
Wisconsin Badgers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers

Justin

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
17 Nebraska 0.770 0.616 18 26.1 22 16.1 20 168.0 47
12 Wisconsin 0.806 0.553 42 30.1 5 17.1 27 156.0 114

Where's the SEC title game? GUGS shades towards close games, and TFG thinks the Dawgs are going to get blown out (no offense, Georgia fans). This, however, should be closer. The last time they played this year it was at Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers eeked out a 3-point victory; that kind of loss seems to be Wisconsin's MO this year, with four losses by exactly a field goal (their other loss was to Ohio State by a touchdown). Wisconsin's lost a lot of offense from last year, but has still been (opponent-and-pace-adjusted) very efficient. Nebraska hasn't been a slouch, either, and with both defenses in the "good" but not "outstanding" category, this looks to be a close, relatively high-scoring affair between two top-20 teams. The Badgers will try and slow things down, while the Huskers will pick up the pace a bit. It'll be a good game with no clear favorite, but since Nebraska doesn't have home field advantage this time, look for the Badgers to eek out a close win in the end. The predicted margin is, fittingly, a field goal. Wisconsin 37, Nebraska 34 (55.5%); 161 plays.

Eddie

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
19 Nebraska 0.863 0.533 45 18.7 35 11.5 23 167.1 65
16 Wisconsin 0.882 0.531 47 20.8 22 11.0 16 161.6 112

What?  No Alabama-Georgia?  If you must know, it's because RBA doesn't think that game is going to be very competitive (31-17, Alabama).  On the other hand, Nebraska-Wisconsin should be a pretty good game, even if not matching two teams in the BCS top three.  The formerly unstoppable Badger offense has proven itself inconsistent in 2012, notching a 32.6 +/- 23.6 PPH performance.  Their defense isn't Alabama or Notre Dame, but a 4.8 +/- 12.4 PPH very respectable.  The Huskers sport a similarly effective defense at 3.6 +/- 16.0 PPH.  The key in this game is the Nebraska offensive consistency.  They haven't always been flashy, but the Cornhuskers 21.9 +/- 6.3 PPH demonstrates a predictability that RBA likes.  RBA says that Nebraska wins the Big Ten, 28-24, with 58.8% confidence.



Coin Toss Game of the Week
UCF Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
GUGS Score: 58.5

Eddie

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
50 Tulsa 0.609 0.466 92 16.1 66 14.1 43 171.9 16
36 UCF 0.713 0.461 97 18.4 38 14.1 40 163.5 104

For what it's worth, history is on my side.  Tulsa beat UCF three weeks ago, 23-21.  UCF's offense simply isn't consistent.  A 30.7 +/- 24.6 PPH performance will only look good because Tulsa isn't very good on defense at 11.2 +/- 5.8 PPH.  The only reason why Tulsa will win this game is because UCF's 10.0 +/- 8.3 PPH defense is even worse.  It will be ugly, but expect a 27-24 Tulsa victory with 54.4% confidence.


Justin

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
44 Tulsa 0.598 0.421 81 20.0 70 17.1 28 178.3 10
33 UCF 0.636 0.354 114 24.9 27 19.9 50 156.9 108

I'm not sure a two-point victory at home is really having history on your side, but whatever. This game is a tale of two teams with opposing strengths and weaknesses: Tulsa has no offense, but a relatively solid D, while UCF has a good offense, but a middling defense. These teams are also on opposite ends of the tempo spectrum; Tulsa will want to go-go-go, while UCF is a more patient team. This will be close, but TFG thinks the Knights will get revenge for their loss a few weeks ago. UCF 35, Tulsa 33 (54.0%); 167 plays.




SystemExpected
W - L
Expected
% Correct
RBA 10.68 -  4.32 71.17%
TFG 10.65 -  4.35 71.03%

Friday, November 30, 2012

Week 14: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Nov 30 21:28:04 2012

Northern Ill.44Kent St.37Final
UCLA24Stanford27Final

Week 14: Friday Predictions


 66Kent St.31
 27Northern Ill.38
 62Kent St.28
 59Northern Ill.27

  8Stanford38
 46UCLA30
 14Stanford31
 27UCLA21


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 14 RBA Projections: SEC,Pac-12,Sun Belt,Western Athletic

Projected conference champions
  • Pac-12: Stanford
  • SEC: Alabama
  • Sun Belt: Arkansas St.
  • Western Athletic: Utah St.
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: SEC,Pac-12,Sun Belt,Western Athletic

Projected conference champions
  • Pac-12: Stanford
  • SEC: Alabama
  • Sun Belt: Arkansas St.
  • Western Athletic: Utah St.
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Week 14: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Nov 29 20:58:04 2012

Louisville20Rutgers17Final

Week 14: Thursday Predictions


 30Rutgers33
 48Louisville32
 20Rutgers28
 52Louisville24


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 14 RBA Projections: Big Ten,Big XII,Mid-American,Mountain West

Projected conference champions
  • Big Ten: Ohio St.
  • Big XII: Kansas St.
  • Mid-American: Northern Ill.
  • Mountain West: Boise St.
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: Big Ten,Big XII,Mid-American,Mountain West

Projected conference champions
  • Big Ten: Nebraska
  • Big XII: Kansas St.
  • Mid-American: Northern Ill.
  • Mountain West: Boise St.
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Week 14 RBA Projections: ACC,Big East,Conference-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions
  • ACC: Florida St.
  • Big East: Rutgers
  • Conference-USA: Tulsa
  • Independents: Notre Dame
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: ACC,Big East,Conference-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions
  • ACC: Florida St.
  • Big East: Rutgers
  • Conference-USA: UCF
  • Independents: Notre Dame
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA


Odds as of games through 2012-11-25


Locks

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.924 13 0.530 49 21.5 20 13.0 30 159.8 118

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  92 Miami-OH 10 at  23 Ohio St. 56 193 85.8%
2012/09/08  62 UCF 16 at  20 Ohio St. 31 161 71.7%
2012/09/15  50 California 28 at  20 Ohio St. 35 176 71.4%
2012/09/22 115 UAB 15 at  19 Ohio St. 29 165 93.1%
2012/09/29  21 Ohio St. 17 at  19 Michigan St. 16 156 42.7%
2012/10/06  20 Nebraska 38 at  11 Ohio St. 63 166 51.1%
2012/10/13   9 Ohio St. 52 at  82 Indiana 49 195 89.8%
2012/10/20  63 Purdue 22 at  17 Ohio St. 29 164 78.1%
2012/10/27  12 Ohio St. 35 at  26 Penn State 23 174 48.8%
2012/11/03  90 Illinois 22 at  13 Ohio St. 52 175 84.9%
2012/11/17  14 Ohio St. 21 at  19 Wisconsin 14 169 43.3%
2012/11/24  22 Michigan 21 at  13 Ohio St. 26 142 61.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.992 3 0.567 1 18.7 36 7.2 2 164.4 99

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  75 Navy 10 vs  20 Notre Dame 50 150 77.7%
2012/09/08  73 Purdue 17 at  17 Notre Dame 20 172 79.4%
2012/09/15   6 Notre Dame 20 at  15 Michigan St. 3 165 49.1%
2012/09/22  22 Michigan 6 at  13 Notre Dame 13 133 50.1%
2012/10/06   9 Notre Dame 41 vs  56 Miami-FL 3 154 80.4%
2012/10/13  13 Stanford 13 at   7 Notre Dame 20 165 50.0%
2012/10/20  28 BYU 14 at   6 Notre Dame 17 145 60.6%
2012/10/27   5 Notre Dame 30 at   8 Oklahoma 13 166 47.3%
2012/11/03  41 Pittsburgh 26 at   7 Notre Dame 29 199 86.7%
2012/11/10   3 Notre Dame 21 at  98 Boston College 6 150 93.5%
2012/11/17  91 Wake Forest 0 at   4 Notre Dame 38 152 91.4%
2012/11/24   3 Notre Dame 22 at  17 USC 13 142 52.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2012-11-25

Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2012-11-25

Two teams have finished out their season undefeated and they ... will not face each other for the title. Thanks to Tattoo-gate, the Ohio State Buckeyes are banned from postseason play this year, and won't even get a chance to play for the Big Ten title. In a way this might actually be good for Ohio State, since TFG ranks them just behind 2006 Boise State and 2004 Utah in terms of undefeated regular season teams that didn't or couldn't play for a title. An interesting footnote: the coach of that 2004 Utah squad with the top-notch offense and middling defense? Urban Meyer.

This brings us to Notre Dame. I've seen many stories talking about how the Irish won't stack up to the SEC champion and will be exposed as frauds in the title game. I will say that if Notre Dame plays Alabama, they will be significant underdogs. But if somehow they get matched up with Georgia, that will be much more of a fair fight. Notre Dame has good wins over (8) Stanford, (9) Oklahoma, (16) Michigan, (18) USC, and (20) Michigan State. TFG ranks their SOS at #21, which is pretty even with Alabama (#19) and miles ahead of Georgia (#50).

The clear favorite for the title right now, though, is Alabama. TFG has them as 90% likely to beat Georgia, and currently puts them as 82.1% against Notre Dame. The Crimson Tide have the top-rated offense and the top-rated defense in FBS. The Irish have the second-best defense, but lag behind both Alabama and Georgia in offense; they've been able to move the ball, but have had trouble getting it into the end zone (see: five FGs against USC, including three from inside the 12).

Georgia has the most difficult path, though. They're heavy underdogs to Alabama (only 10% likely to win), and as it stands right now they'd have a 1-in-3 shot against Notre Dame. This adds up to a 3.4% chance of the Bulldogs taking the BCS title. Georgia has the weakest defense of the three contenders, and definitely has the weakest SOS. The only TFG top 25 the Bulldogs have faced this year are (4) Florida and (11) South Carolina. In their win over Florida, the Gators coughed up the ball six times, and the Bulldogs got 10 of their 17 points on drives that started inside the Gator 30 thanks to Florida turnovers. That type of luck won't strike twice, so Georgia will really need to play better defense to slow down Alabama.

In short, here are your current BCS title odds:

WinnerOdds

Alabama73.9%
Notre Dame     22.7%
Georgia3.4%


Locks

Ohio State Buckeyes*
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.762 19 0.530 52 28.8 8 18.1 37 162.1 83

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  80 Miami-OH 10 at  22 Ohio St. 56 193 89.0%
2012/09/08  52 UCF 16 at  15 Ohio St. 31 161 83.7%
2012/09/15  47 California 28 at  13 Ohio St. 35 176 84.0%
2012/09/22 114 UAB 15 at  16 Ohio St. 29 165 97.4%
2012/09/29  19 Ohio St. 17 at  16 Michigan St. 16 156 35.5%
2012/10/06  18 Nebraska 38 at  20 Ohio St. 63 166 58.2%
2012/10/13  14 Ohio St. 52 at  86 Indiana 49 195 83.5%
2012/10/20  68 Purdue 22 at  19 Ohio St. 29 164 84.5%
2012/10/27  19 Ohio St. 35 at  23 Penn State 23 174 41.5%
2012/11/03  98 Illinois 22 at  17 Ohio St. 52 175 90.4%
2012/11/17  19 Ohio St. 21 at  10 Wisconsin 14 169 38.7%
2012/11/24  14 Michigan 21 at  19 Ohio St. 26 142 45.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.887 2 0.606 21 25.7 24 11.3 2 157.6 103

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  59 Navy 10 vs  16 Notre Dame 50 150 74.7%
2012/09/08  71 Purdue 17 at  13 Notre Dame 20 172 90.6%
2012/09/15  16 Notre Dame 20 at   9 Michigan St. 3 165 30.7%
2012/09/22  24 Michigan 6 at  11 Notre Dame 13 133 74.3%
2012/10/06  11 Notre Dame 41 vs  44 Miami-FL 3 154 78.0%
2012/10/13  10 Stanford 13 at   4 Notre Dame 20 165 65.5%
2012/10/20  31 BYU 14 at   4 Notre Dame 17 145 84.8%
2012/10/27   6 Notre Dame 30 at   3 Oklahoma 13 166 32.0%
2012/11/03  36 Pittsburgh 26 at   3 Notre Dame 29 199 83.9%
2012/11/10   4 Notre Dame 21 at  97 Boston College 6 150 93.5%
2012/11/17  94 Wake Forest 0 at   5 Notre Dame 38 152 94.0%
2012/11/24   2 Notre Dame 22 at  18 USC 13 142 71.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2012-11-25