Week 17: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: FL-Atlantic (0.064); Oregon (0.036); LSU (0.022); Miami-OH (0.021); Boise State (0.018)

Biggest drops: UAB (-0.071); Hawaii (-0.024); Utah (-0.024); Tennessee (-0.021); Georgia (-0.019)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 9: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: Oregon State (0.086); Mississippi (0.067); South Carolina (0.064); Baylor (0.064); Hawaii (0.058)

Biggest drops: Nevada (-0.092); Vanderbilt (-0.078); Georgia Tech (-0.074); Kentucky (-0.063); Army (-0.060)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 7: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Cincinnati (0.166); Hawaii (0.155); North Carolina (0.127); Western Kentucky (0.126); Miami-OH (0.118)

Biggest drops: Maryland (-0.230); Georgia Tech (-0.167); Marshall (-0.130); Kansas State (-0.129); Kansas (-0.127)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 10: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: Purdue (0.097); UCLA (0.090); Utah (0.069); UTEP (0.061); Charlotte (0.058)

Biggest drops: Auburn (-0.082); Southern Miss. (-0.057); California (-0.043); SJSU (-0.040); Hawaii (-0.039)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 4: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: Arizona St. (0.140); Fresno St. (0.134); Colorado (0.121); Hawaii (0.101); South Carolina (0.097)

Biggest drops: UTSA (-0.190); UAB (-0.121); UCLA (-0.119); FL-Atlantic (-0.118); Coastal Carolina (-0.093)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 3: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: Appalachian St. (0.165); Hawaii (0.110); LA Tech (0.064); Duke (0.062); Vanderbilt (0.055)

Biggest drops: SMU (-0.065); New Mexico St. (-0.062); Colorado St. (-0.058); FIU (-0.055); UTSA (-0.055)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 3: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: Hawaii (0.074); Boise St. (0.062); Army (0.050); Toledo (0.037); Tennessee (0.033)

Biggest drops: Northern Ill. (-0.084); Bowling Green (-0.057); Missouri (-0.047); FIU (-0.045); SMU (-0.044)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 15: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Arkansas St. (0.065); Pittsburgh (0.038); Texas State (0.034); West Virginia (0.028); Hawaii (0.023)

Biggest drops: Middle Tenn. (-0.060); South Florida (-0.043); Kansas (-0.035); Nebraska (-0.029); South Alabama (-0.019)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Iowa St. (0.100); Ball St. (0.088); Connecticut (0.084); Miami-FL (0.070); Hawaii (0.060)

Biggest drops: Ohio (-0.162); Louisville (-0.160); Virginia Tech (-0.081); UNLV (-0.071); LA Tech (-0.053)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Pittsburgh (0.047); Mississippi (0.042); Hawaii (0.040); Fresno St. (0.040); Memphis (0.036)

Biggest drops: Utah (-0.047); Auburn (-0.046); Rutgers (-0.045); UNLV (-0.040); Washington (-0.038)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 6: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: North Carolina (0.111); Texas Tech (0.100); South Alabama (0.097); Middle Tenn. (0.086); BYU (0.081)

Biggest drops: Hawaii (-0.090); Boise St. (-0.079); Ohio (-0.078); Georgia Tech (-0.077); Illinois (-0.076)

Full rankings after the jump.

Tuesday Trivia: Not All Undefeated Teams Are Created Equal

Going undefeated over the course of a college football season is a daunting prospect, and few teams have made it through a full season unscathed. Normally a team that finishes the regular season undefeated has a strong argument for inclusion in the national title game, and usually the human voters and computers sort out which of the undefeated teams should play for the title. Over the last few years, though, we've seen teams from outside the six BCS conferences make it to mid-December with a perfect record and argue they deserve a spot in a BCS bowl, if not the title game itself.

Do these claims have any merit?

Some say "no" just on the face of it. They argue that because of the weak schedule these teams face during the regular season that it'd be a surprise if they didn't go undefeated. They say that teams shouldn't be rewarded for playing a schedule full of New Mexicos, Utah States, and Louisiana Techs, no matter how well they do against them. They argue that even if such a team managed a victory against a BCS opponent early on in the season that it doesn't matter since it doesn't reflect sustained performance.

And in many cases they point to the 2007 Hawaii team, a team that went 12-0 in the Western Athletic Conference, only to be ground to a pulp by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. It was the classic David versus Goliath story, except in this case David's sling broke and Goliath had ten of his closest Goliath-sized friends teach the pipsqueak a lesson, sending him back to his tribe as a warning to other potential upstarts. You mess with the bull, you get the horns.

That leaves us wondering, though: are all undefeated teams from outside the BCS conferences created equally? Was Hawaii representative of what an undefeated small-conference team looks like when they take on the might of the dominating SEC? Or are other teams from recent years and the upsets they accomplished the true story?

In order to answer this we took the seven non-BCS teams to finish undefeated in the regular season since 2003 and ranked them from worst to best. We'll look at their schedule, how they played through the year -- the whole body of work, as it were -- and the prediction facing that team as they entered their bowl game.

The full story is after the jump.

Week 4: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Kansas St. (0.113); Utah (0.105); Miami-FL (0.096); Vanderbilt (0.087); Tulane (0.084)

Biggest drops: Mississippi (-0.127); BYU (-0.093); Hawaii (-0.082); UAB (-0.074); Marshall (-0.067)

Full rankings after the jump.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.945	0.528	45	28.8	7	9.3	1	159.1	107
2	--	Boise St.	0.915	0.471	74	28.8	8	11.2	3	166.6	59
3	+2	Stanford	0.898	0.499	64	31.1	1	13.0	8	160.4	98
4	+2	Oklahoma	0.896	0.653	9	25.5	17	10.8	2	179.7	6
5	+2	LSU	0.890	0.690	5	29.5	3	12.8	7	156.1	118
6	-2	Florida	0.885	0.516	56	26.4	12	11.6	4	161.9	92
7	-4	Ohio St.	0.863	0.481	68	24.2	19	11.6	5	158.3	110
8	+1	Oregon	0.862	0.645	11	27.5	10	13.2	10	185.5	1
9	+4	Wisconsin	0.859	0.474	71	29.8	2	14.5	18	158.4	109
10	-2	TCU	0.854	0.429	89	29.0	5	14.3	16	163.3	80
11	--	Virginia Tech	0.854	0.531	41	25.7	16	12.7	6	156.2	116
12	-2	Arkansas	0.806	0.533	40	27.5	9	15.6	26	169.5	36
13	-1	Florida St.	0.803	0.632	14	26.0	15	14.8	22	157.5	114
14	+5	Texas A&M	0.790	0.557	32	22.4	33	13.2	9	176.3	12
15	+14	Miami-FL	0.781	0.693	4	23.6	22	14.2	14	166.9	53
16	+15	Utah	0.781	0.509	57	24.0	21	14.5	17	165.5	69
17	-2	Oklahoma St.	0.779	0.524	49	26.1	13	15.8	29	182.8	2
18	-1	Nebraska	0.758	0.523	50	24.1	20	15.3	25	165.9	64
19	-5	Auburn	0.753	0.634	13	29.1	4	18.7	55	169.7	33
20	-2	Georgia	0.749	0.715	1	28.9	6	18.6	53	157.9	112
21	-5	West Virginia	0.748	0.507	60	22.8	30	14.8	19	160.0	103
22	+2	Texas	0.740	0.479	70	22.9	28	15.1	23	163.1	83
23	--	USC	0.739	0.553	33	22.4	34	14.8	20	168.3	46
24	-2	Missouri	0.735	0.561	31	20.5	49	13.6	11	171.2	25
25	-5	Iowa	0.734	0.576	26	23.3	23	15.6	27	168.7	41
26	+7	Notre Dame	0.729	0.630	17	22.0	38	14.8	21	169.1	39
27	-6	South Carolina	0.727	0.659	8	27.3	11	18.5	51	160.0	102
28	-2	Clemson	0.723	0.611	20	20.7	48	14.1	13	164.6	73
29	+1	Penn State	0.694	0.668	7	19.9	53	14.3	15	164.0	78
30	-2	Pittsburgh	0.691	0.536	39	22.5	32	16.3	33	164.3	76
Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
31	-6	Michigan St.	0.670	0.525	48	22.8	31	17.1	39	160.3	100
32	+5	Tennessee	0.665	0.632	15	23.1	25	17.6	45	165.3	72
33	-1	Arizona St.	0.658	0.651	10	19.8	56	15.2	24	176.9	9
34	--	Illinois	0.654	0.522	51	21.9	39	16.9	36	164.4	75
35	+1	South Florida	0.654	0.499	63	18.1	72	14.0	12	168.7	42
36	+6	Georgia Tech	0.653	0.488	65	26.1	14	20.3	66	157.7	113
37	+20	Kansas St.	0.647	0.452	80	25.0	18	19.6	60	160.1	101
38	-11	UCF	0.646	0.356	109	20.5	50	16.1	31	154.6	120
39	+7	Maryland	0.626	0.613	19	21.5	42	17.4	42	173.9	18
40	+11	Texas Tech	0.622	0.468	75	21.5	40	17.6	44	181.6	3
41	+9	Michigan	0.609	0.505	61	23.1	26	19.4	57	168.8	40
42	+1	North Carolina	0.606	0.566	28	19.9	54	16.8	35	162.6	90
43	-2	North Carolina St.	0.605	0.574	27	21.4	44	18.1	48	170.6	26
44	-9	Mississippi St.	0.598	0.603	21	18.3	70	15.6	28	169.6	34
45	--	Navy	0.594	0.434	87	23.3	24	20.1	65	156.1	117
46	+2	Baylor	0.593	0.675	6	22.9	29	19.7	61	174.9	15
47	+2	California	0.579	0.550	34	20.0	52	17.6	46	167.3	50
48	-9	Arizona	0.572	0.715	2	17.8	77	15.9	30	169.5	38
49	+3	Air Force	0.571	0.539	37	19.1	64	17.0	37	165.4	70
50	-12	Nevada	0.569	0.402	97	23.1	27	20.7	69	169.5	37
51	+8	Louisville	0.563	0.483	67	19.4	61	17.6	47	160.4	99
52	+3	Tulsa	0.543	0.473	72	21.1	46	19.7	62	176.9	10
53	-9	Northern Ill.	0.539	0.388	101	22.2	35	20.9	72	166.0	63
54	-7	Kentucky	0.539	0.472	73	18.5	69	17.4	41	163.1	82
55	+1	Oregon St.	0.529	0.706	3	18.0	75	17.2	40	166.1	62
56	-2	Temple	0.520	0.285	117	16.6	84	16.1	32	161.7	95
57	+5	Connecticut	0.519	0.531	43	19.3	62	18.7	54	166.6	57
58	-18	BYU	0.512	0.508	58	16.9	82	16.6	34	166.5	60
59	+11	Western Michigan	0.507	0.285	118	19.6	60	19.4	58	170.6	28
60	+5	SDSU	0.498	0.377	103	19.6	59	19.6	59	173.1	20
Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
61	--	Cincinnati	0.496	0.468	76	22.0	37	22.1	81	169.8	31
62	-2	Washington	0.491	0.624	18	21.0	47	21.3	74	165.8	65
63	+4	Iowa St.	0.482	0.631	16	17.5	80	18.1	49	175.2	14
64	-1	Houston	0.476	0.337	113	21.5	43	22.3	83	180.8	4
65	+3	Rutgers	0.470	0.537	38	19.7	58	20.6	67	161.6	96
66	-8	Hawaii	0.450	0.376	104	22.1	36	24.0	98	162.4	91
67	-3	Toledo	0.447	0.530	44	19.9	55	21.6	77	172.1	21
68	+5	Troy	0.441	0.421	95	19.2	63	21.1	73	179.0	7
69	+6	FIU	0.434	0.360	108	18.7	66	20.8	71	166.3	61
70	-4	Southern Miss.	0.430	0.346	111	19.0	65	21.3	75	174.3	17
71	+13	Ohio	0.429	0.241	120	21.5	41	24.1	99	161.3	97
72	-19	Mississippi	0.428	0.578	25	20.0	51	22.5	84	159.7	104
73	-4	Northwestern	0.415	0.480	69	16.1	90	18.5	52	177.7	8
74	-3	Fresno St.	0.409	0.508	59	21.3	45	24.7	100	162.8	85
75	-1	Colorado	0.409	0.501	62	17.2	81	20.0	63	167.9	49
76	+2	LA Tech	0.390	0.448	83	16.0	91	19.2	56	179.9	5
77	-5	East Carolina	0.389	0.542	35	19.8	57	23.8	95	176.8	11
78	+3	Wake Forest	0.379	0.593	23	18.6	68	22.7	87	168.0	47
79	+15	Vanderbilt	0.377	0.563	30	14.3	102	17.5	43	166.6	58
80	--	SMU	0.372	0.435	86	18.3	71	22.6	86	159.6	105
81	-2	Minnesota	0.370	0.519	55	18.6	67	23.0	90	162.7	87
82	+7	Army	0.353	0.409	96	17.8	76	22.7	88	156.8	115
83	-1	Syracuse	0.351	0.525	47	16.3	87	20.8	70	163.0	84
84	-7	UCLA	0.351	0.565	29	18.0	74	23.0	91	162.8	86
85	-2	Purdue	0.350	0.462	77	14.3	101	18.3	50	174.3	16
86	-10	Boston College	0.343	0.521	53	13.1	110	17.0	38	161.9	94
87	+3	Virginia	0.335	0.520	54	15.8	93	20.7	68	169.9	30
88	--	Washington St.	0.333	0.526	46	16.6	83	21.9	79	168.6	43
89	-3	Arkansas St.	0.329	0.367	106	15.1	97	20.1	64	171.3	24
90	+2	Duke	0.328	0.642	12	16.5	85	21.9	78	171.6	23
Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
91	-4	Kansas	0.303	0.598	22	18.0	73	25.1	103	168.4	45
92	+1	Utah St.	0.292	0.531	42	17.6	79	25.1	102	170.6	27
93	-8	Central Michigan	0.290	0.422	93	15.9	92	22.8	89	167.3	51
94	+2	Miami-OH	0.283	0.388	100	14.8	99	21.5	76	161.9	93
95	--	Bowling Green	0.274	0.311	115	16.2	89	23.9	97	172.1	22
96	+4	Middle Tenn.	0.265	0.325	114	15.0	98	22.6	85	175.7	13
97	--	UTEP	0.262	0.274	119	15.6	95	23.7	94	165.7	66
98	+1	Indiana	0.255	0.428	91	17.7	78	27.2	111	166.8	56
99	-8	Marshall	0.248	0.424	92	14.1	103	22.0	80	166.9	52
100	+1	Rice	0.229	0.436	84	16.5	86	26.7	107	169.6	35
101	+9	Tulane	0.221	0.366	107	15.6	96	25.9	105	164.3	77
102	-4	Idaho	0.216	0.436	85	14.8	100	24.7	101	169.8	32
103	--	LA-Lafayette	0.204	0.377	102	16.3	88	28.1	114	168.6	44
104	-2	Wyoming	0.202	0.433	88	13.6	108	23.5	92	166.9	55
105	+7	UNLV	0.177	0.522	52	15.7	94	29.0	116	163.2	81
106	--	Ball St.	0.164	0.305	116	14.1	104	27.1	110	165.4	71
107	-2	Kent St.	0.142	0.453	79	10.8	117	22.1	82	166.9	54
108	-1	North Texas	0.142	0.449	81	13.7	107	28.0	112	165.6	67
109	+2	Buffalo	0.139	0.337	112	11.4	114	23.6	93	173.4	19
110	+3	LA-Monroe	0.138	0.539	36	12.3	112	25.7	104	163.5	79
111	-3	Western Kentucky	0.137	0.389	99	13.8	106	28.8	115	158.8	108
112	-3	Colorado St.	0.137	0.348	110	12.8	111	26.7	108	158.0	111
113	+2	SJSU	0.126	0.580	24	11.0	116	23.9	96	165.5	68
114	-10	UAB	0.123	0.400	98	13.8	105	30.2	117	162.7	88
115	-1	New Mexico St.	0.117	0.373	105	11.6	113	26.0	106	168.0	48
116	+1	FL-Atlantic	0.081	0.459	78	10.6	118	28.1	113	159.5	106
117	-1	Eastern Michigan	0.080	0.429	90	13.4	109	35.5	120	155.7	119
118	--	New Mexico	0.076	0.486	66	10.0	119	27.1	109	170.5	29
119	--	Memphis	0.062	0.422	94	11.1	115	32.9	119	164.5	74
120	--	Akron	0.045	0.449	82	8.9	120	30.4	118	162.7	89

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2010 - 2011: Final Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Tulsa (+9, 57 to 48); North Carolina State (+7, 33 to 26); Mississippi State (+7, 39 to 32); Syracuse (+7, 83 to 76).

Biggest drops: Michigan State (-8, 35 to 43); Navy (-6, 38 to 44); Connecticut (-6, 49 to 55); Hawaii (-6, 52 to 58).

Full rankings after the jump

2010 Bowl Previews: Part V

Part V of our bowl preview. Part IV was yesterday.

#23: Hawaii Bowl (December 24, 2010)
Hawaii Warriors (10-3, 7-1 WAC) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-3, 6-2 C-USA)
GUGS: 46.9

Justin: GUGS really like this bowl because the teams are reasonably good, the score will be reasonably high, and it will extremely close. Both (52) Hawaii and (57) Tulsa are within 1.1 PPH of each other on both sides of the ball. The Warriors will have home-field advantage on this one, which traditionally has helped them out more than home-field advantage for other teams. Tulsa plays at a sightly higher pace than Hawaii, so the Golden Hurricane may choose to speed things up and see if they can get Hawaii off their game. Either way, this will be a coin toss, with TFG favoring Hawaii, 36-35.
Eddie:  RBA doesn't see this one being quite as close as TFG does.  (59) Hawaii and (64) Tulsa are relatively even offensively, separated by only 0.6 PPH.  The real difference is on defense.  One doesn't think of Hawaii and defense in the same sentence very often, but they hold a 2.9 PPH advantage over the Golden Hurricane defensively.  Adding in home field advantage, this one looks like a Hawaii victory, 38-28, with 54.4% confidence.

#22: Beef ‘O’Brady’s Bowl (December 21, 2010)
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-4, 5-3 C-USA) vs. Louisville Cardinals (6-6, 3-4 Big East)
GUGS: 47.9

Eddie: Justin will tell you I'm lying, but I have actually heard of this bowl, thanks to its ridiculous name.  (44) Louisville has been one of the RBA surprise teams of 2010.  Charlie Strong has turned the Cardinals around from being atrocious to being on the fringe of respectability, as evidenced by their 1.0 +/- 20.7 PPH defense. Their offense isn't much to write home about thanks to a variance of 34.9 PPH, but they've been able to manage.  (57) Southern Miss is more consistent on both sides of the ball but exhibits a worse production on average than Louisville.  Long-time readers know that I'm a closeted Golden Eagle fan, but it doesn't look like they're going to pull this one out.  RBA picks Louisville, 31-27, with 69.5% confidence.
Justin: I've never heard of this bowl, and neither have you (don't lie). The (48) Cardinals play slow, deliberate, and underwhelming football. In other words, they're in the Big East. The (60) Golden Eagles are a bit more uptempo, good offense/bad defense than Louisville, and are 8 points away from being 11-1. This looks to be another close one, but right now the coin toss lands in Louisville's favor. If Southern Miss can find some defense, though, they should be able to stop Louisville's anemic offense. Until then, TFG picks Louisville, 33-32.

#21: Liberty Bowl  (December 31, 2010)
UCF Knights (10-3, 7-1 C-USA) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (6-6, 3-5 SEC)
GUGS: 49.2

Justin: The (23) Bulldogs are a much better team than their 6-6 record indicates, and the (40) Knights aren't as good as their 10-3 record might show. Both teams, however, play slow; don't expect this one to break 160 plays. Georgia is tied for the 8th most efficient offense in FBS (26.5 PPH) but is being held back by a sub-par defense that allows 17.8 PPH. The Knights have a slightly better defense (16.7 PPH) but is about 6.0 PPH short on offense. This slow, grind-em-out game is going to work in Georgia's favor. TFG gives the Dawgs a slight nod, with a 35-31 win predicted at 62.7% confidence.
Eddie:  (21) Georgia is one of the most inconsistent teams in college football.  Their offensive variance is 33.9 PPH, and their defensive variance is 25.9 PPH.  When they're playing to their potential, the Bulldogs can steamroll someone.  The question is whether (61) UCF can prevent that from happening with an offense and defense that are also fairly inconsistent.  If both teams play to the mean, Georgia stomps all over UCF thanks to a 15.7 PPH offensive advantage and an 8.6 PPH defensive advantage.  RBA says Georgia rolls 38-17 with 82.9% confidence.

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(52)	Hawaii	36	(57)	Tulsa	35	52.5	(59)	Hawaii	38	(64)	Tulsa	28	54.4
(48)	Louisville	33	(60)	Southern Miss.	32	56.4	(44)	Louisville	31	(57)	Southern Miss.	27	69.5
(40)	UCF	31	(23)	Georgia	35	62.7	(61)	UCF	17	(21)	Georgia	38	82.8

Week 9: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Hawaii (+16, 71 to 55); Temple (+15, 74 to 59); Louisville (+12, 51 to 39).

Biggest drops: Purdue (-18, 58 to 76); Connecticut (-15, 50 to 65); North Carolina (-13, 19 to 32).

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 15: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Washington (+15, 71 to 56); Wisconsin (+6, 37 to 31); Central Michigan (+4, 40 to 36); Michigan (+4, 68 to 64); LA Tech (+4, 70 to 66).

Biggest drops: California (-10, 43 to 53); Ohio (-10, 60 to 70); Hawaii (-5, 90 to 95).

Week 10: Summary

Overall it was a brutal week for predictions.  Of the 11 games where the favorite had between a 50% and 60% chance to win, I got two correct (Hawaii and LA-Monroe).  Throw in Notre Dame-Navy (with the 60.2% chance of getting it right) and I went 2-for-12 in predicting close games.  Those are a lot of bad bounces.  Overall my record for this week was 36-17, bringing the total for the last three weeks to 122-41 for an accuracy of 74.8%.  In my next post I'll examine some changes I'm making to my system in response to observations and feedback.  But first, the Week 10 recap ....

Games To Watch

(25) Oregon State at (39) California.
I said: Vegas -- and my numbers -- say Cal is the favorite, but look for Oregon State to pull off the upset.
Result: Correct. OSU took control of this game early on and didn't let go.

(33) Navy at (35) Notre Dame.
 I said:  I predict that Notre Dame will pull off the victory, but only at the end and only if they can keep Navy from getting some quick points.
Result: Somewhat near the target but ultimately wrong. Navy scored on their first two drives to go up 14-0 at the start of the second quarter.  Notre Dame missed two FGs -- including one from the Navy 12 -- gave up a safety, and just couldn't pull it together.  In every category except the one that mattered, Notre Dame one-upped Navy: yards, first downs, punts, etc.  With two minutes left, Notre Dame still had a shot to win, they just couldn't get it done.

(47) Houston at (56) Tulsa.
I said: The main question is whether or not Tulsa will be able to keep up with Houston's frantic pace, averaging an NCAA-high 185 plays per game.  The numbers give Tulsa a 51% nod in what will be a fast-and-furious high-scoring game.
Result: I'm pretty disappointed I didn't get this one right.  I looked at the boxscore and saw Tulsa up 8 with 2:30 minutes to go and Houston at midfield.  Here I thought the worse that would happen would be overtime.  And up 2 with 0:25 left?  Surely this one was in the bag.  But no.  These are the kinds of games that drive me crazy because you're left wondering if there was anything you could have done differently to predict a Houston win.  Sometimes ... it just doesn't work out.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

(90) Utah State at (101) Hawaii.  Not nearly as close as the numbers predicted.  This appears to be a growing trend.

Week 10: Predictions

Last week saw several exciting games, and Week 10 is already off to an equally exciting start.  Last night Bowling Green beat Buffalo on an 18-yard TD with 0:39 remaining.  The numbers had Buffalo winning 31-24, but only with 50.2% odds.  Barring a touchdown from the 7 on 4th down as time expires, games generally don't come much closer than that.  With that, I bring you ...

Games To Watch

(25) Oregon State at (39) California.  This has the potential to be a fast game (around 174 plays) with OK but not excellent defenses.  Oregon State has a similar offensive efficiency as Iowa, they just need to step it up on the defensive side.  California will have the home-field advantage, pushing their defense into West Virginia territory and essentially equivalent to Oregon State.  They'll need to step it up on offense to keep up with Oregon State.  Vegas -- and my numbers -- say Cal is the favorite, but look for Oregon State to pull off the upset.

(33) Navy at (35) Notre Dame.  These are two teams headed in opposite directions in the rankings.  Two weeks ago Notre Dame was in the top 25 and Navy was struggling to stay in the top 40.  Now Notre Dame is only the favorite by virtue of being the home team, hanging their hats on their defensive rating of 15.6.  Navy has a solid offense, though, with an efficiency similar to that of Alabama (24.2).  Notre Dame are 11-point favorites, but I see this game being much closer, with the Fighting Irish having only a 60.2% chance of pulling off the victory.  I predict that Notre Dame will pull off the victory, but only at the end and only if they can keep Navy from getting some quick points.

(47) Houston at (56) Tulsa. Houston currently sits at #15 in the BCS polls, but I don't believe that and neither do the oddsmakers; they're currently split on this game, and for good reason.  Houston has all the defensive abilities of Michigan and the offensive firepower of Nevada.  If that doesn't sound like a top 15 BCS team then ... well, it shouldn't.  Houston has racked up some impressive wins against less-than-impressive opposition.  Tulsa has done more of the same, playing an even weaker slate than Houston.  They don't have the offensive weapons that Houston does, but has a reasonable defense.  The main question is whether or not Tulsa will be able to keep up with Houston's frantic pace, averaging an NCAA-high 185 plays per game.  The numbers give Tulsa a 51% nod in what will be a fast-and-furious high-scoring game.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

(90) Utah State at (101) Hawaii.  Not exactly Penn State/Ohio State, but this one should be much closer.  Hawaii is the 50.9-49.1 favorite in this one.  The numbers say Hawaii, but your guess is as good as mine.

The Bottom Line

The numbers say they should get 40 of the 52 games this week correct for a 76.9% accuracy rate.  They've started out 1-for-2, getting UCF over Marshall but missing Buffalo-Bowling Green.  Full predictions after the jump.