Formula One: Elo Ratings, Post-Italian Grand Prix

It's been six weeks since our last update, due to a combination of the summer break and summer vacation around here, but we're finally back. There's a lot we could cover -- from Rosberg surrendering a 49-point lead in the standings to Hamilton's ongoing technical woes -- but instead we'll just focus on Italy.

Not pictured: Hamilton in the lead.
Source: Daily Mail

Hamilton got onto the pole but made a horrible start, allowing Rosberg to grab the lead. Hamilton was able to charge back through the field and finish second, minimizing the damage of the poor start.

Updated ratings and analysis after the jump.

Formula One: Elo Ratings, Post-Spanish Grand Prix

The 2016 Spanish Grand Prix will be remembered for two things: Max Verstappen shattering the record for the youngest driver to ever win a grand prix, and the Mercedes drivers colliding in turn four and taking each other out of the race.

Max Verstappen claims his maiden victory
Source: motorsport.com

Once Mercedes was out this looked like Ferrari -- the #2 team in the Elo ratings -- would finally get a chance to claim a 1-2 finish. The Red Bull drivers of Ricciardo and Verstappen were in the mix, but everyone expected Vettel and Raikkonen to outpace the Red Bull pair. Both teams ended up going for a split strategy, as Verstappen and Raikkonen opted for two stops while Ricciardo and Vettel made three. The two-stop strategy proved to be the winner, as Verstappen held off Raikkonen for 30 laps.

Formula One: Elo Ratings, Post-Russian Grand Prix

Lewis Hamilton continues to have bad luck, Sebastian Vettel's is even worse, and Nico Rosberg just keeps going. And in news from Thursday night, it appears that Kvyat is out and Verstappen is in at Red Bull, following Kvyat's double collision with Vettel during the opening lap at Sochi. The Russian driver and the teenager are swapping places for the rest of the season, with Kvyat relegated back down to the Toro Rosso team for the final 17 races.

Oops.
Source: Daily Mail

What does Elo have to say about this swap? Is Red Bull making the right choice in promoting Verstappen to the A-team?

Formula One: Elo Ratings, Post-Chinese Grand Prix

A few years ago Bernie Eccelstone floated the idea of ringing the track with sprinklers, which would randomly turn on during the race. The idea was to shake up the ordering and introduce a degree of randomness that would confound the drivers and strategists. While we didn't get an unforeseen rainstorm or "accidental" car into the wall, we did get the next best thing: six different teams placed cars in the top ten on the grid, with Lewis Hamilton getting relegated to the back of the grid due to technical issues.

This lead to a memorable start.

Pictured: A whole lotta oops.
Source: biser3a.com

Vettel and Raikkonen collided in the first corner, while Felipe Nasr slammed into Hamilton while trying to avoid Raikkonen as the Ferrari came back onto the track. By the end of the first lap, Raikkonen, Romain Grosjean, Hamilton, and Nasr all had to pit for new front wings, leaving the track scattered with debris. Race leader Daniel Ricciardo became a victim of this debris, picking up a puncture on the back straight and getting quickly overtaken by Rosberg. By that point the FIA decided that enough was enough, and sent out the safety car to give track workers a chance to clear some debris.

Formula One: Elo Ratings, Post-Bahrain Grand Prix

For the first time since the completion of qualifying at the 2014 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, we have a new leader atop our Elo ratings. Rosberg's seemingly-effortless victory -- his fifth in a row -- has put him ahead of his teammate for the first time in over a year.

Once again Lewis Hamilton failed to convert a pole position to a win, as he got bogged down on the start, shoved wide in the first corner, and surrounded by mid-pack drivers.

Lewis Hamilton (right) about to get tagged by Valteri Bottas (center)
Source: Bleacher Report

Formula One: 2014 and 2015 Elo Ratings

Our first look at the application of our Elo ratings for Formula One will examine the 2014 and 2015 seasons. These seasons were notable for the utter dominance by the Mercedes F1 team and their drivers, Lewis Hamilton (GBR) and Nico Rosberg (GER).

Hamilton leads Rosberg during the 2013 Malaysian GP.

Hamilton won the title in 2008 while driving for the McLaren team, while Rosberg had routinely bested seven-time world champion Michael Schumacher while the two were teammates during Schumacher's return to F1 from 2010-2012. Hamilton and Rosberg had been friends since they were teenagers, teammates in the European Karting Championship. Even then they spoke of being teammates in Formula One, racing against each other for the World Championship.

Mercedes gave them that opportunity.