The 2011 - 2012 TFG/RBA Recap

With the 2011 - 2012 season well in the books, let's take a moment to look back at the year.

2011 - 2012 Season
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
TFG	524.7 - 190.3	73.4	528 - 187	73.8
RBA	522.2 - 192.8	73.0	518 - 197	72.4

This season was notably unpredictable. The TFG system actually tied for the most accurate known prediction system -- as measured by picking straight-up winners -- but was only a tenth of a percentage point ahead of the least accurate winning system over the last 12 years. Anecdotally we saw this through the eyes of one-loss BCS champion Alabama and the lengthy disputes over who should have gotten a shot at LSU in the title game. (We argued that, for once, the BCS got it right.)

As we look back at this season, though, we'll revisit some of the highs and lows through the lens of our various trivia posts.

The State of Parity
In a previous trivia post we attempted to define and measure parity in a league. The definition we settled upon wasn't so much "parity" as it was "disparity": the standard deviation of the expected winning percentages (EWP) of all teams in FBS. The larger this value, the more variance there is between the EWPs, and the greater the spread between the teams; the smaller this value, the more tightly clustered teams are aroudn 0.500. So with another year in the books, let's examine the state of (dis)parity in college football.

This past year actually set a new low in the overall disparity of talent across FBS (0.020547) surpassing the previous low of 0.020669 in the 2007-2008 season; if you'll recall, that year was a bit of a mess for top teams. Thus continues the downward trend in disparity (i.e., a sign of ever-increasing parity in FBS). Realistically what this means is that it will be more difficult to run the table, less likely to see two undefeated teams emerge for a clear-cut title game, and more BCS debates as the overall talent level becomes more evenly distributed instead of hoarded by several top teams.

Biggest Upset
Earlier this year we examined the five biggest post-September upsets since 2003. The bar to get into that club was defeating a 94.4% favorite; in other words, if you had a 1-in-17.8 shot of winning and still pulled it off, you were in. How did this year fare?

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (9-1, 5-1 C-USA) at UAB Blazers (2-8, 2-5 C-USA); November 17, 2011.
TFG Prediction: Southern Miss 47, UAB 28 (92.3% confidence)
Result: UAB 34, Southern Miss 31

It wasn't quite 1-in-17.8, but 1-in-13 is still a pretty steep hill to climb. (47) Southern Miss was on a roll, having won eight straight after a 26-20 setback on the road against Marshall. (114) UAB's two wins had come by a combined eight points, but otherwise had been outscored 95-13 by the two ranked opponents they had played (Houston and Florida). The game started as expected, with Southern Miss going up 14-0 before three minutes of game clock has passed. From there, however, fortunes changed. The next seven drives for Southern Miss -- lasting until the 4th quarter -- were an interception, a fumble, a TD, a punt, the end of the half, a FG, and a FG miss. Thirty-nine seconds into the 4th quarter, UAB rumbled into the end zone to cap off a 31-10 run to put them up by a touchdown. Southern Miss struck quickly, tying it up at 31 with ten minutes remaining. UAB methodically picked their way downfield, burning over seven minutes of clock before getting the go-ahead field goal. USM attempted a desperation five-lateral play as time expired, but only made it to the UAB 40 before getting pushed out of bounds. USM went in as a three-touchdown favorite, and left as 3-point losers.

After the jump we'll examine the most improbable winning streaks as well as the biggest swings in team strength, including ugly swandives and beautiful ascents.

2010 Bowl Previews: Part V

Part V of our bowl preview. Part IV was yesterday.

#23: Hawaii Bowl (December 24, 2010)
Hawaii Warriors (10-3, 7-1 WAC) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-3, 6-2 C-USA)
GUGS: 46.9

Justin: GUGS really like this bowl because the teams are reasonably good, the score will be reasonably high, and it will extremely close. Both (52) Hawaii and (57) Tulsa are within 1.1 PPH of each other on both sides of the ball. The Warriors will have home-field advantage on this one, which traditionally has helped them out more than home-field advantage for other teams. Tulsa plays at a sightly higher pace than Hawaii, so the Golden Hurricane may choose to speed things up and see if they can get Hawaii off their game. Either way, this will be a coin toss, with TFG favoring Hawaii, 36-35.
Eddie:  RBA doesn't see this one being quite as close as TFG does.  (59) Hawaii and (64) Tulsa are relatively even offensively, separated by only 0.6 PPH.  The real difference is on defense.  One doesn't think of Hawaii and defense in the same sentence very often, but they hold a 2.9 PPH advantage over the Golden Hurricane defensively.  Adding in home field advantage, this one looks like a Hawaii victory, 38-28, with 54.4% confidence.

#22: Beef ‘O’Brady’s Bowl (December 21, 2010)
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-4, 5-3 C-USA) vs. Louisville Cardinals (6-6, 3-4 Big East)
GUGS: 47.9

Eddie: Justin will tell you I'm lying, but I have actually heard of this bowl, thanks to its ridiculous name.  (44) Louisville has been one of the RBA surprise teams of 2010.  Charlie Strong has turned the Cardinals around from being atrocious to being on the fringe of respectability, as evidenced by their 1.0 +/- 20.7 PPH defense. Their offense isn't much to write home about thanks to a variance of 34.9 PPH, but they've been able to manage.  (57) Southern Miss is more consistent on both sides of the ball but exhibits a worse production on average than Louisville.  Long-time readers know that I'm a closeted Golden Eagle fan, but it doesn't look like they're going to pull this one out.  RBA picks Louisville, 31-27, with 69.5% confidence.
Justin: I've never heard of this bowl, and neither have you (don't lie). The (48) Cardinals play slow, deliberate, and underwhelming football. In other words, they're in the Big East. The (60) Golden Eagles are a bit more uptempo, good offense/bad defense than Louisville, and are 8 points away from being 11-1. This looks to be another close one, but right now the coin toss lands in Louisville's favor. If Southern Miss can find some defense, though, they should be able to stop Louisville's anemic offense. Until then, TFG picks Louisville, 33-32.

#21: Liberty Bowl  (December 31, 2010)
UCF Knights (10-3, 7-1 C-USA) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (6-6, 3-5 SEC)
GUGS: 49.2

Justin: The (23) Bulldogs are a much better team than their 6-6 record indicates, and the (40) Knights aren't as good as their 10-3 record might show. Both teams, however, play slow; don't expect this one to break 160 plays. Georgia is tied for the 8th most efficient offense in FBS (26.5 PPH) but is being held back by a sub-par defense that allows 17.8 PPH. The Knights have a slightly better defense (16.7 PPH) but is about 6.0 PPH short on offense. This slow, grind-em-out game is going to work in Georgia's favor. TFG gives the Dawgs a slight nod, with a 35-31 win predicted at 62.7% confidence.
Eddie:  (21) Georgia is one of the most inconsistent teams in college football.  Their offensive variance is 33.9 PPH, and their defensive variance is 25.9 PPH.  When they're playing to their potential, the Bulldogs can steamroll someone.  The question is whether (61) UCF can prevent that from happening with an offense and defense that are also fairly inconsistent.  If both teams play to the mean, Georgia stomps all over UCF thanks to a 15.7 PPH offensive advantage and an 8.6 PPH defensive advantage.  RBA says Georgia rolls 38-17 with 82.9% confidence.

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(52)	Hawaii	36	(57)	Tulsa	35	52.5	(59)	Hawaii	38	(64)	Tulsa	28	54.4
(48)	Louisville	33	(60)	Southern Miss.	32	56.4	(44)	Louisville	31	(57)	Southern Miss.	27	69.5
(40)	UCF	31	(23)	Georgia	35	62.7	(61)	UCF	17	(21)	Georgia	38	82.8

Week 12: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week
North Carolina State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels.
GUGS Score: 64.4

Justin: Yet another ACC game in the "no one has any clue who's going to win this one" game of the week. We should really start capping how often a team can show up here. Regardless, the (30) Tar Heels host the (29) Wolfpack in a showdown that not many people outside of North Carolina will care about. The Wolfpack are about 1.0 PPH on the good side offensively, but 0.5 PPH off in defensive efficiency. Unfortunately for the Tar Heels, home field advantage doesn't matter as much in November as it did in September, so they won't get the boost they're looking for playing in Chapel Hill. Not that this is much of a road game, as the Wolfpack only have a 30 minute bus ride down I-40 to get there. TFG says this one is a coin toss, with the coin favoring the faster-paced Wolfpack, 32-30, but only with 51.1% confidence.
Eddie: Another ACC game that I'm going to get incorrect.  We've talked about both these teams in this space multiple times, so let's get to the numbers.  Neither is pretty offensively, where UNC has a +0.7 PPH advantage.  However, the Tarheels have a decided advantage defensively, sporting a +2.9 PPH advantage.  The game is in Chapel Hill, so add another three points.  Overall, this shapes up to be a Tarheel 31-21 victory at 67.2% confidence.

BCS Game of the Week
West Virginia Mountaineers at Louisville Cardinals
GUGS Score: 57.5

Eddie: Louisville has made tremendous strides under coach Charlie Strong (formerly of Batesville, AR -- my wife's hometown, but I digress).  However, the Cardinals have an extremely high offensive variance of 32.0 PPH.  This doesn't bode well for them because the Mountaineers are a respectable team.  The Louisville offense should expect only 9.7 PPH.  Luckily for them, West Virginia shouldn't be much better at 12.7 PPH.  Home field makes this one closer than it probably should be, but West Virginia should win 24-21.  RBA gives Bill Stewart a 55.6% chance of not screwing this one up.
Justin: TFG has a little bit more faith in the (24) Moutaineers than RBA, and even less faith in the (53) Cardinals. Both teams play a relatively conservative pace -- expect about 163 plays in this game -- and have reasonably good offenses -- 18.8 PPH for WVU, 17.9 PPH for Louisville -- but this game will come down to defense. Mainly it will come down to Louisville's mediocre defense and West Virginia's strong defense. The Mountaineers sport a better defensive efficiency than (11) Nebraska, whereas Louisville is just a shade better than (83) Purdue. In this case, defense will lead West Virginia to a 30-26 victory, with 68.6% confidence.

BCS Upset Watch of the Week
Army Black Knights at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
GUGS Score: 36.8

Justin: Near the end of the season we're scraping the bottom of the barrel for these AQ-versus-non-AQ games, and it shows. (32) Notre Dame hosts (79) Army in a game where the loser will have the better offense; yes, Army has put up better adjusted offensive numbers than the Fighting Irish. Unfortunately Army is also allowing about 9.0 PPH more on defense than Notre Dame; throw in Notre Dame's relatively quick pace, and this one should get out of hand quickly. TFG says the Irish coast to victory by at least a touchdown, with 76.2% confidence.
Eddie: I'm worried about this one.  Don't get me wrong; everything on paper says the Irish roll.  They have a +7.1 PPH offensive advantage and an insane +11.1 PPH defensive advantage.  However, Notre Dame always seems to burn me, especially when they should win big.  RBA says 38-20 with 77.0% confidence.

Kids' Table Game of the Week
Houston Cougars at Southern Miss Golden Eagles
GUGS Score: 58.0

Eddie: This game is a virtual coin flip at 50.2%.  Southern Miss sports a slight +2.1 PPH defensive advantage, while Houston has a +1.1 PPH offensive edge.  They're playing in Hattiesburg, so the Golden Eagles get a three point bump.  In the end, RBA takes the family pick -- Southern Miss over Houston 34-28.
Justin: This game will be fast. Fast, fast, fast. Don't be surprised if these two teams combine for over 180 plays. This game will also feature little to no defense, as both allow in the neighborhood of 19.5 PPH.  Houston has an ever-so-slight edge on offense, though, and that should be enough to return home as victors. TFG says the Cougars take this one, 36-35, but only with 53% confidence.

Games you probably wanted us to preview:

Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan Wolverines.
GUGS Score: 55.0

Michigan drags the average team quality down.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes
GUGS Score: 54.7

Great teams, close game (RBA and TFG actually disagree vehemently about this one; RBA says Iowa, TFG says Ohio State), but ultimately a low-scoring affair.

Stanford Cardinal at California Golden Bears
GUGS Score: 51.5

Stanford is going to blow out Cal. Book it. Done.

Week 6: Saturday Matchups

Once again our Game of the Week delivered, as the Texas/Oklahoma game came down to the closing seconds. Clemson/Miami turned into another ACC stalemate, Air Force/Navy was a defensive showdown, and UNC proved that they're the best football program in the state of North Carolina.

With that, on to this week's picks.

Game of the Week
Pittsburgh Panthers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
GUGS Score: 66.8

Eddie: (27) Notre Dame are a bunch of 2-3 frauds with a traitorous head coach and pussy mascot.  At least, that's what I'm sure everyone's thinking.  The Irish aren't that efficient against good teams at 13.9 PPH and have a sketchy defense at 17.0 PPH.  However, (33) Pittsburgh isn't any better at 12.0 PPH and 17.0 PPH, respectively.  Expect some missed tackles to go along with a 28-21 Notre Dame victory.  At least RBA is only 54.1% confident you'll have to see that fucking leprechaun dance around when it's all said and done.
Justin: Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be any quality games that are both competitive and have top-notch talent, so your GUGS Game of the Week (by default) is (30) Pitt at (35) Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are really relying home field advantage here, because they're certainly not getting a boost from their underpowered offense (18.1 PPH), although their defense allows a respectible 14.2 PPH. On the other side, Pitt has a relatively high-powered offense, on par with (13) Arizona or (10) Nebraska. Their defense is a bit suspect, though, and TFG thinks that suspect Panther defense plus home field advantage equals a 32-31 Notre Dame win.

BCS Game of the Week
Clemson Tigers at North Carolina Tar Heels.
GUGS Score: 66.6

Justin: I know Eddie's not happy about this pick, but he's welcome to come up with his own system. We've got two top-30 teams facing off, trying to get their first conference wins. Granted this will be a defense-oriented game, but Clemson has produced some good nailbiters. TFG says they don't pull off this one, though, falling to the Tar Heels, 30-29.
Eddie: You've got to be kidding me.  This is the 3rd straight week with a (22) UNC matchup.  If GUGS spits out UNC next week, I'm going to suggest we kick it to the curb.  What can I say this week that hasn't been said so far?  UNC expects 15.0 PPH of offense and 15.0 PPH defense.  (30) Clemson sports a similar offensive and defensive balance at 14.6 PPH and 15.7 PPH, respectively.  UNC has an advantage in both efficiencies and home field advantage.  RBA picks UNC 28-24 with 57.8% confidence.

BCS Upset Watch of the Week
Navy Midshipmen at Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
GUGS Score: 57.0

Eddie: On one side of the coin, you have the same (45) Demon Deacons that gave up 62 to Stanford.  On the other, you have the (55) Midshipmen that lost to Maryland.  Yes, that Maryland.  Navy has been uncharacteristically inefficient on offense this season at 12.2 PPH but have stepped it up defensively to 12.8 PPH.  In fact, the Middie defense varies only 1.8 PPH over the entire range of opponents.  In contrast, Wake Forest has one of the highest variances both offensively (37.3 PPH) and defense (24.8 PPH).  If we look only at efficiencies, this game is dead even.  However, it's played in Winston-Salem, so the Deacons claim a close 27-24 victory, spoiling the upset with 53.8% confidence.
Justin: Eddie and I disagree on this one. The loss that (45) Navy suffered to (77) Maryland was a freak occurence, and (81) Wake had traveled nearly 3,000 miles into the maw of (16) Stanford. Both teams are better than Eddie's examples would have us believe, but unfortunately that's not saying much for Wake. Navy at least has a respectible offense (19.3 PPH) and servicable defense (16.9 PPH), making this a 32-29 Navy win on the road.

Kids Table Game of the Week
East Carolina Pirates at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles.
GUGS Score: 56.8

Justin: On a neutral site, (61) Southern Miss and (63) ECU have the potential to play a several-OT thriller. Both are within 6-thousandths of a percent of 0.500 and play at a good clip (170+ plays per game). In the end, though, Southern Miss is the better team and is playing at home, which is enough to tip this game to their favor, but just barely. TFG says the Golden Eagles win, 34-31, but only with 59.7% confidence.
Eddie: Long-time readers will know that I have a soft spot for (57) Southern Mississippi because my mother and three uncles went there, so I'm happy to report that RBA doesn't expect this game to be very close.  (67) East Carolina sports a 0.8 PPH offensive advantage, but USM holds a 4.6 PPH defensive advantage.  Plus, the game is in Hattiesburg, giving the Golden Eagles another advantage.  Because of the relative strengths, RBA gives this game only 56.6% confidence, but all the advantages point toward a Southern Miss victory.

Games you probably wanted us to preview:

Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines.
GUGS Score: 62.0

This looks to be a close, high-scoring game. However we've only got one spot for a game between two teams in automatic-qualifier conferences, and Clemson and UNC are each top-30 teams. Both TFG and RBA say the fine folks from the Michigan schools are on the wrong side of 30.

LSU Tigers at Florida Gators.
GUGS Score: 60.0

Two top-12 teams, but Florida is still the better team and has home field advantage. Depending on which computer you believe more, this will either be moderately high-scoring but not close (TFG) or moderately close but not high-scoring (RBA). We split the difference and ignore it.

Southern California Trojans at Stanford Cardinal.
GUGS Score: 41.3

Stanford. Book it. Done.

Week 4: Saturday Matchups

Last week's GUGS selections ran the gamut from eerily accurate to accurate for a half to just a weeee bit off. This week's selections run the gamut from somewhat obscure to even more obscure. So with that, here are the games of the week.

Nevada Wolfpack at Brigham Young Cougars.
GUGS Score: 82.2

Justin: The (32) Wolfpack visit the (40) Cougars in what expects to be a close match. BYU is a disciplined team with an effective defense but low-powered offense. Nevada has put up better offensive numbers, but offsets that with poor defense.  Even BYU's anemic offense should put up good numbers against Nevada, but it'll be a very close game. TFG says the Cougars pull off a 1-point victory in Provo, but only with 57.5% odds.
Eddie:  (30) Nevada has been incredibly explosive on the offensive side of the ball and should ring up 20.8 PPH, which is no small feat against a 0.718 strength team like (36) BYU.  Conversely, BYU's offense has been rather anemic against stronger opponents and should expect 16.0 PPH against Nevada. The game is played in Provo, so the Cougars get a small bonus.  RBA says the Wolfpack should win a moderately high scoring game 34-31.  However, the confidence is only 54.4% because Nevada's powerful offense is supplemented by a rather shaky defense (19.8 PPH).

North Carolina Tar Heels at Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
GUGS Score: 81.7

Eddie:  This week's pillow fight is brought to you by the letters 'P' and 'U'.  Is this really one of the top four games of the week?  (47) Rutgers is 2-0 after beating a D-IAA team (that RBA ignores) and needing a 4th quarter touchdown to beat FIU.  (54) North Carolina is 0-2 after losing respectable games to LSU and Georgia Tech.  This game should feature a great deal of offensive incompetence with Rutgers putting up 15.0 PPH and UNC scoring 14.4 PPH.  Rutgers should win by a touchdown 28-21 with 51.5% confidence thanks to the added home field bump.
Justin: I know Eddie doesn't approve of this game, but I think he's just upset that the computers didn't pick Arkansas/Alabama to be closer than it will be. The (34) Tar Heels travel to New Jersey to take on the (43) Scarlet Knights in what will be, admittedly, not exactly an offensive display for the ages. UNC is from the defense-heavy ACC, and Rutgers has a decent offense but averages fewer than 160 plays per game. Expect a deliberate and defense-heavy (but close) victory by the Knights, 30-28.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Northwestern Wildcats.
GUGS Score: 78.5

Justin: The (49) Chippewas remain a legitimate top-50 team that closely resembles (statistically) their more famous in-state football brethern in the Big Ten (the Wolverines sneak in an extra 2.6 plays per game and manage an extra 0.7 PPH, but otherwise they're identical). The (63) Wildcats have home field advantage, however, and hope to ride that to victory; they'll need all the help they can get, since the Chippewas have a 1.8 PPH advantage on offense, but that extra FG per game will be offset by home field advantage. Northwestern takes this in a nailbiter, 30-28.
Eddie: (62) Central Michigan can put up a lot of points but has one of the largest drop-offs in D-IA.  The Chippewa offense varies by up to 37.0 PPH, depending on opponent strength.  (70) Northwestern isn't a mindblowing football team, but they are consistent, thanks to an offense that varies by only 5.0 PPH.  All this adds up to an incredibly tight game where home field advantage gives the Wildcats a 27-24 victory with 54.1% confidence.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.
GUGS Score: 72.1

Eddie: RBA doesn't think this game is that interesting.  (63) Southern Miss should have a 4.7 PPH advantage over (82) Louisiana Tech.  Ruston isn't a particularly frightening place to play, but RBA gives the Bulldogs a bonus, anyway.  Even with the home field advantage, RBA says the Golden Eagles wins this game 63.9% of the time by a score of 31-27.
Justin: The (66) Golden Eagles face off against the (82) Bulldogs in what TFG expects will be one of the closest games of the day. Both have faced decent competition for their rankings, but can't seem to get things together on the defensive side; both teams allow about 19 PPH. The difference is that the Golden Eagles put up about 18 PPH on offense, compared to about 15 PPH for LA Tech. Eddie doesn't seem too exciting about this game, but I'll give his computer some more leeway to decide "exciting" when it starts getting more right than my TFG program.

Games you probably wanted us to preview:

California Golden Bears at Arizona Wildcats.
GUGS Score: 78.7

A major Pac-10 showdown. Arizona is the better team and they're playing host to the Golden Bears. TFG is not at all fond of their chances (70.2%) but RBA says this will be a coin toss (51.6%) that Arizona wins by 11 points. Yes, you read that right. No, I don't know how that works.

Oregon State Beavers at Boise State Broncos.
GUGS Score: 45.2

This game is Boise's second and only remaining chance to really impress the BCS voters, and both TFG and RBA says they should have a good shot at doing so. They're two-touchdown favorites, and anywhere from 3-to-1 to 5-to-1 favorites. Oddly enough neither computer is completely sold on the Broncos, either, so this is their time to shine.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks.

GUGS Score: 37.3

Both TFG and RBA say Alabama with over 80% confidence.  Eddie says the computers can eat his poo.  The cumulative weight of the 2010 season is only 15% for RBA.  Arkansas's defense could be better this season.  (It's hard to imagine it being worse.)  Alabama's defense could be worse; it's not like San Jose State, Penn State, and Duke are offensive juggernauts.  Honestly, it's still too early to tell exactly how this one is going to play out.

Week 4: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest Jumps:  Nevada (+23, 53 to 30); Temple (+13, 65 to 53); Southern Miss (+13, 76 to 63)

Biggest Drops:  Missouri (-21, 37 to 58); Kansas (-20, 40 to 60); Oregon State (-18, 19 to 37)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 3: Thursday and Friday Predictions

The Thursday/Friday games of week 3 show TFG and RBA in complete consensus about the projected winners, but TFG is significantly less confident than RBA about the favorites running the table over the next 36 hours. All three projected victors are the visiting teams, and we're still early enough in the season that home field advantage means something. Interestingly enough, one team facing the uphill battle against home field advantage is Kansas, who rode momentum and a track meet against heavy favorite Georgia Tech to an upset victory at home. This week they're on the road facing Southern Miss in what TFG predicts will be a real nailbiter.  This may not be Iowa-Arizona game of Saturday, but both Friday games have the potential to be interesting.

TFG says the favorites have an 18% chance of running the table; RBA says that's closer to 39%. We'll find out soon enough.

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(66)	North Carolina St.	32	(32)	Cincinnati	34	61.3	(67)	North Carolina St.	27	(44)	Cincinnati	31	64.7
(48)	Nevada	34	(26)	California	36	53.7	(53)	Nevada	21	(7)	California	38	84.4
(72)	Southern Miss.	33	(50)	Kansas	34	55.5	(76)	Southern Miss.	24	(40)	Kansas	34	71.5

Week 2: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Arizona (+15, 38 to 23); South Carolina (+15, 44 to 29); Iowa State (+15, 85 to 70).

Biggest drops: Southern Miss (-17, 58 to 75); Northern Illinois (-16, 71 to 87); Cincinnati (-14, 19 to 33).

Full rankings after the jump.

2009 Bowl Previews: Part III

Welcome to Day Two-and-a-Half Three of our Bowl Preview special.

#29: International Bowl
Northern Illinois Huskies vs South Florida Bulls (47.8 CQR)
Justin: (59) Northern Illinois is the very definition of an average team according to TFG, but they achieved this dubious distinction by playing the 11th-weakest schedule in the Bowl Division.  The Huskies also play at the second-slowest pace in all of FBS, behind only Florida.  The 71st-ranked Bulls play better defense than the Huskies, but also spot Northern Illinois 4.3 PPH on the offensive side.  If South Florida can step it up on the offense and speed up the Huskies out of their comfort zone they've got a shot.  For now TFG gives the slightest of nods to Northern Illinois, 28-27.
Eddie: (63) USF has an advantage over (58) Northern Illinois on the scoreboard with a 16.6 PPH to 15.9 PPH advantage.  However, NIU plays a cleaner game, committing 0.72 fewer turnovers and 1.5 fewer penalties per game.  RBA says this is a close game with only 50.5% confidence:  NIU 28 - USF 27.

#28: New Orleans Bowl
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (49.3 CQR)
Eddie:  My heart weeps for this pick because half my family went to (59) Southern Miss.  (56) Middle Tennessee has a 15.1 PPH to 13.4 PPH edge over Southern Miss.  Although Southern Miss has an advantage in turnovers, it is offset my a more opportunistic Middle Tennessee defense.  My family allegiance says Southern Miss, but RBA picks Middle Tennessee 28-27.
Justin: I'm sure Eddie will be relieved to find out he's wrong on this one, as TFG favors (57) Southern Miss over the 76th-ranked Blue Raiders.  Both teams play at a frantic pace, but Southern Miss has the superior offense and hasn't played the creampuff schedule of Middle Tennessee, which ranks dead-last in their division.  TFG says Southern Miss by 4.

#27: Alamo Bowl
Michigan State Spartans vs Texas Tech Red Raiders (51.6 CQR)
Justin: This bowl scores high on the 'Quality' portion of the CQR metric, the first one in our countdown to sport two teams in the top 50 of the TFG.  Unfortunately it pits the (10) Red Raiders against (47) Michigan State.  Texas Tech has a superior defense and a vastly superior offense.  The Spartans play a relatively uptempo 86.5 plays per half, but the Red Raiders have the 6th-quickest pace in FBS, averaging over 90 PPH.  Barring any major surprises, expect this one to be over by early in the second half.  Texas Tech 38, Michigan State 31.
Eddie: This one shouldn't be close, as it matches up (15) Texas Tech against (57) Michigan State.  (Of course, that's what I said about Fresno State/Wyoming, but just ignore the man behind the curtain.)  Texas Tech holds a 18.9 PPH to 13.5 PPH advantage over the Spartans, as well as a takeaway advantage of 0.82 takeaways per game.  Michigan State is more careful with the football and slightly better in penalties, but things just don't look good for them here.  RBA's prediction is Texas Tech over Michigan State, 34-24.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(59)	Northern Ill.	28	(71)	South Florida	27	56.5	(58)	Northern Ill.	28	(63)	South Florida	27	50.5
(76)	Middle Tenn.	27	(57)	Southern Miss.	31	60.7	(56)	Middle Tenn.	28	(59)	Southern Miss.	27	61.8
(47)	Michigan St.	31	(10)	Texas Tech	38	78.0	(57)	Michigan St.	24	(15)	Texas Tech	34	61.2