This is the fourth and final part of our interview with former Texas Tech -- and future Washington State -- football coach Mike Leach. Previously we posted part I, part II and part III.
Q: "In your opinion, which was more thrilling? Harrell to Crabtree or the Insight Bowl against Minnesota?"
A: Well, you know, Harrell to Crabtree, there’s a lot of moments like that. Plays that just didn’t have that timing in the game that that one did. That was a reasonably well executed play we work on every day. That was rewarding from that standpoint.
The Minnesota win, though I have to say, was more. It was the greatest comeback in bowl game history. I forget how many points. You’ll have to look it up: 31 or 35. [It was 31 points. -Eddie] At any rate, so we came back that many points late in the third.
What’s more gratifying about the Minnesota win is that it was a team effort. We got contributions on all sides of the ball. It was the entire team involved with nobody really giving up hope. Harrell to Crabtree, I mean, that was a great team win, too, don’t get me wrong, but just isolated on that play, it doesn’t personify the entire efforts of the team. Minnesota, we had a ton of effort from all kinds of people all over the place, and that was gigantic.
Q: "One of the most striking things I've read about your practices is how every activity focused on the pass. How much do you credit to the number of repetitions versus the defensibility of the scheme itself?"
A: Well, I don’t, that’s not true. We work on the pass. First of all, we spend a lot of time working on the run, as well. We spend more time working on the pass. You want to spend your time based on what you’re going to do and how often you’re going to do it. You say, in a game plan -- I mean, this isn’t a perfect answer -- in a game plan, if you’re going to run a play 10% of the time, that’s about what you have to work on about 10% every day. You may not be able to get those numbers, and stuff like that figured out exactly.
Vertical routes, for example, we need to have more time spent on them. They’re difficult to execute, and the quarterback and receiver all need to be on the same page, so I think they require a little more execution.
We probably emphasize the run more than we actually ran it just because we have a lot of time to work on the pass but the thing is if you call 70% passes, you need to work on throwing the ball 70% of the time.
With the linemen, a lot of times, especially early on when they got there, there would be a real emphasis on pass protection. About ten years ago, you’d get a high school offensive lineman and he wouldn’t have much experience pass protecting. He’d have plenty of experience run blocking but not anything significant pass protecting. You’d really have to develop his skills there, and there’d maybe be an imbalance working on pass protection because of his inexperience. Now, a lot of kids are coming out having pass protected in high school.
I would say that I’d like to think -- and again, it’s not perfect -- that it was in proportion to what plays we called. Sometimes you have deficiencies and it just requires more time on those.
Coach Leach is also the author of "Swing Your Sword" and "Sports for Dorks".
Follow us on Twitter @TFGridiron
Showing posts with label ask an expert. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ask an expert. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Ask an Expert: Mike Leach Responds, Part III
This is part III of our interview with former Texas Tech -- and future Washington State -- football coach Mike Leach. Previously we posted part I and part II.
Q: "If you had to rank the reasons for your success, how would you compare the offensive scheme itself, player development, and identifying overlooked raw talent? Or was there something else that helped you win?"
A: I think it’s all of the above. It’s all very important. I think you try to do all of it. As far as, I can’t really rank the reasons.
I think our scheme is very good and constantly being polished. Our scheme, what is important to me scheme-wise is to utilize all the skill positions so the defense has to account for every skill position. Second is to make sure that our scheme respects all the space sideline to sideline and the downfield. Then, uh, and you don’t need, say, 10 different ways to attack the flat. You need three you can execute really well so you can develop your skill specifically at what you’re going to do. And then, I think somebody may have a better way to attack the flat than us, and I might take their play and take out a couple of mine so we don’t lose ground on the execution level with that.
Player development, I think that’s constant. I think that it means different things. One thing you find when new players come in, no player really knows how hard they can work. You know, everybody has worked at whatever level they’re at, and everybody can work harder. Then, they discover that they, and then they start pushing onto another plateau working hard. Some need to work on focus. Some need to relax. You’d be surprised how many players I get that need to relax. They put too much pressure on themselves.
Then, raw talent, I think you can constantly develop. You look for, sometimes with raw talent there’s just a role. You know, the guy might not be a complete player, but in this role and this situation, he’d be great. You might have some raw defensive linemen -- not very disciplined, not real good against the run maybe -- but great as far as a pass rush. You put him in there on third and long and turn him loose and you get great results. As he develops in that role, he can expand on it and improve.
Then, the other thing that is everybody pulling in the same direction? You know, our number one goal is always to be a team, and I think that’s very important. Be a team.
Q: "The 2003 Houston Bowl between Navy and Texas Tech was the biggest clash of styles I can think of, have you ever talked with Paul Johnson after that game and laughed at the absurdity of it? Also, is that one kid still ringing his bell?"
A: Aw, shoot, I remember that video, and I’m not even going to comment on that because there are several connotations to that on the bell.
Paul Johnson is a friend of mine. Paul Johnson and I did laugh about it. We were the number one offense in the nation. They were the number two. We were the number one passing team in the nation. They were the number one rushing team in the nation. Everybody said that we were totally opposite, which couldn’t be further from the truth.
Very similar teams. The only dissimilarity was that we threw it, they ran it, because our philosophy as far as attacking the field with lots of personnel came from the wishbone. Even though the wishbone ran it all the time, the wishbone made sure all the skill positions touched the ball and made the defense have to account for everybody. In other words, distribution was very important to them.
Their idea of balance wasn’t 50% run, 50% pass. Their idea of balance was distribution. They made sure you were getting contributions out of all the offensive positions, and that’s exactly what’s important to us. We got that from the wishbone, and uh, Paul Johnson running a form of the wishbone -- we were incredibly similar.
We wanted to attack the field. For example, they’re very good sideline to sideline. When you run the option like they do, it kind of layers up as you go upfield because you get overlaps at other levels. Things like that. But, in both cases, we were the two best -- I’m proud to say this and proud to be in the company of Paul Johnson -- we were the two best offenses in America at distributing the football, and that’s why we had the results we did.
Coach Leach is also the author of "Swing Your Sword" and "Sports for Dorks".
Follow us on Twitter @TFGridiron
Q: "If you had to rank the reasons for your success, how would you compare the offensive scheme itself, player development, and identifying overlooked raw talent? Or was there something else that helped you win?"
A: I think it’s all of the above. It’s all very important. I think you try to do all of it. As far as, I can’t really rank the reasons.
I think our scheme is very good and constantly being polished. Our scheme, what is important to me scheme-wise is to utilize all the skill positions so the defense has to account for every skill position. Second is to make sure that our scheme respects all the space sideline to sideline and the downfield. Then, uh, and you don’t need, say, 10 different ways to attack the flat. You need three you can execute really well so you can develop your skill specifically at what you’re going to do. And then, I think somebody may have a better way to attack the flat than us, and I might take their play and take out a couple of mine so we don’t lose ground on the execution level with that.
Player development, I think that’s constant. I think that it means different things. One thing you find when new players come in, no player really knows how hard they can work. You know, everybody has worked at whatever level they’re at, and everybody can work harder. Then, they discover that they, and then they start pushing onto another plateau working hard. Some need to work on focus. Some need to relax. You’d be surprised how many players I get that need to relax. They put too much pressure on themselves.
Then, raw talent, I think you can constantly develop. You look for, sometimes with raw talent there’s just a role. You know, the guy might not be a complete player, but in this role and this situation, he’d be great. You might have some raw defensive linemen -- not very disciplined, not real good against the run maybe -- but great as far as a pass rush. You put him in there on third and long and turn him loose and you get great results. As he develops in that role, he can expand on it and improve.
Then, the other thing that is everybody pulling in the same direction? You know, our number one goal is always to be a team, and I think that’s very important. Be a team.
Q: "The 2003 Houston Bowl between Navy and Texas Tech was the biggest clash of styles I can think of, have you ever talked with Paul Johnson after that game and laughed at the absurdity of it? Also, is that one kid still ringing his bell?"
A: Aw, shoot, I remember that video, and I’m not even going to comment on that because there are several connotations to that on the bell.
Paul Johnson is a friend of mine. Paul Johnson and I did laugh about it. We were the number one offense in the nation. They were the number two. We were the number one passing team in the nation. They were the number one rushing team in the nation. Everybody said that we were totally opposite, which couldn’t be further from the truth.
Very similar teams. The only dissimilarity was that we threw it, they ran it, because our philosophy as far as attacking the field with lots of personnel came from the wishbone. Even though the wishbone ran it all the time, the wishbone made sure all the skill positions touched the ball and made the defense have to account for everybody. In other words, distribution was very important to them.
Their idea of balance wasn’t 50% run, 50% pass. Their idea of balance was distribution. They made sure you were getting contributions out of all the offensive positions, and that’s exactly what’s important to us. We got that from the wishbone, and uh, Paul Johnson running a form of the wishbone -- we were incredibly similar.
We wanted to attack the field. For example, they’re very good sideline to sideline. When you run the option like they do, it kind of layers up as you go upfield because you get overlaps at other levels. Things like that. But, in both cases, we were the two best -- I’m proud to say this and proud to be in the company of Paul Johnson -- we were the two best offenses in America at distributing the football, and that’s why we had the results we did.
Coach Leach is also the author of "Swing Your Sword" and "Sports for Dorks".
Follow us on Twitter @TFGridiron
Monday, December 19, 2011
Ask an Expert: Mike Leach Responds, Part II
This is Part II of our interview with former Texas Tech -- and soon-to-be Washington State -- football coach Mike Leach. Part I can be found here.
Q: "Did you set up all your pirate gear in another location after leaving Tech?"
A: I kind of miss some if it, you know. The pirate thing started when Michael Lewis wrote the article on me in the New York Times magazine, which is worldwide. He talked about a speech. He interviewed several players who talked about a speech I gave where I had a museum replica sword. The gist of it is that we talked about pirates, mixed cultures, and demographics working together for one cause.
In football, your body is your sword. Pirates would sharpen their swords, take care of their swords, and were fully prepared for battle.
And in football, your body’s your sword depending on your weight shifts. To sharpen your skills, you run drills. You run play after play and execute what you can. So then, I start swinging the sword around the room.
So how are you going to swing your sword? You know, I put it over my head and kind of swung it tentatively. Are you going to swing it like this because you’re afraid? You’ll get stabbed because you can’t see what’s going on, and you’re ineffective that way. Are you going to be frantic and not execute well? Are you going to swing it very aggressively where you’re exposed? Somebody that is controlled and calm and executes well kills you. Are you going to have good execution or are you going to swing it like this?
So, it got to be part of a model to swing your sword. After that happened, I got pirate stuff from everywhere. [Laughing.] You know, books, shirts, hats, eye patches, skull and crossbones. [Texas Tech basketball coach] Pat Knight gave me a six-foot tall skeleton dressed up as a pirate in pirate gear. You’d walk by it, and it had a motion sensor, and it would talk. [Laughing.]
Oh, so this is hilarious. So our film room was right next door to my office. That skeleton was in my office. This cleaning lady would come in. She’d come into the office, and we’d be in the other room watching film, and she’d walk in, and the motion would make the thing go off. His eyes would flash, too. "Oy, matey! Who goes there!" and all this stuff, and you’d hear her start screaming in Spanish. [Laughing.]
And so I got a bunch of really cool pirate gear, costumes, flags start showing up at the stadium. The band got involved in a bunch of pirate stuff out there. I only saw the video of it because I was in the locker room at the time for halftime.
Now all that stuff is stored in storage in Lubbock because [...] it doesn’t all fit in [my house].
Q: "When you watch other teams playing and they do the same-old predictable thing (e.g., "establishing the run" on 1st down and, lucky if they gain yardage), do you sometimes feel like throwing heavy objects at the television? Will this ever change?"
A: Well, I don’t throw heavy objects. I’m not really, uh, I’m more of a guy who looks at the T.V. and analyzes while thoughts roll through. Some people explode, like my wife might throw stuff. [Laughing.] She’s like the most excited football fan ever. Nah, I really don’t.
I mean, they’re a different point of view. I guess part of it is I’ll look at what they do. You know, sometimes you see things that illustrate what not to do. I’m trying to constantly sort of shape my point of view at the velocity of things.
Somebody might do something and it will occur to me, "Well, they didn’t utilize the space well." Or, you know, I need to make sure I don’t do that or fall in a rut. I might even look at a team that doesn’t do things well and see some little aspect and think, "Well, I could incorporate that." Then, the other thing is you see teams do things really effectively and really add some things where I’ve been kind of a, you know I could learn something here.
So, I just try to analyze it. I try to follow teams that I’m kind of excited about what they do scheme-wise. You know, I don’t want to make football sound boring. It’s certainly not at any level, but I don’t really root for teams as much as I do kind of coaches, schemes that I am interested in, you know?
Coach Leach is also the author of "Swing Your Sword" and "Sports for Dorks".
Follow us on Twitter @TFGridiron
Q: "Did you set up all your pirate gear in another location after leaving Tech?"
A: I kind of miss some if it, you know. The pirate thing started when Michael Lewis wrote the article on me in the New York Times magazine, which is worldwide. He talked about a speech. He interviewed several players who talked about a speech I gave where I had a museum replica sword. The gist of it is that we talked about pirates, mixed cultures, and demographics working together for one cause.
In football, your body is your sword. Pirates would sharpen their swords, take care of their swords, and were fully prepared for battle.
And in football, your body’s your sword depending on your weight shifts. To sharpen your skills, you run drills. You run play after play and execute what you can. So then, I start swinging the sword around the room.
So how are you going to swing your sword? You know, I put it over my head and kind of swung it tentatively. Are you going to swing it like this because you’re afraid? You’ll get stabbed because you can’t see what’s going on, and you’re ineffective that way. Are you going to be frantic and not execute well? Are you going to swing it very aggressively where you’re exposed? Somebody that is controlled and calm and executes well kills you. Are you going to have good execution or are you going to swing it like this?
So, it got to be part of a model to swing your sword. After that happened, I got pirate stuff from everywhere. [Laughing.] You know, books, shirts, hats, eye patches, skull and crossbones. [Texas Tech basketball coach] Pat Knight gave me a six-foot tall skeleton dressed up as a pirate in pirate gear. You’d walk by it, and it had a motion sensor, and it would talk. [Laughing.]
Oh, so this is hilarious. So our film room was right next door to my office. That skeleton was in my office. This cleaning lady would come in. She’d come into the office, and we’d be in the other room watching film, and she’d walk in, and the motion would make the thing go off. His eyes would flash, too. "Oy, matey! Who goes there!" and all this stuff, and you’d hear her start screaming in Spanish. [Laughing.]
And so I got a bunch of really cool pirate gear, costumes, flags start showing up at the stadium. The band got involved in a bunch of pirate stuff out there. I only saw the video of it because I was in the locker room at the time for halftime.
Now all that stuff is stored in storage in Lubbock because [...] it doesn’t all fit in [my house].
Q: "When you watch other teams playing and they do the same-old predictable thing (e.g., "establishing the run" on 1st down and, lucky if they gain yardage), do you sometimes feel like throwing heavy objects at the television? Will this ever change?"
A: Well, I don’t throw heavy objects. I’m not really, uh, I’m more of a guy who looks at the T.V. and analyzes while thoughts roll through. Some people explode, like my wife might throw stuff. [Laughing.] She’s like the most excited football fan ever. Nah, I really don’t.
I mean, they’re a different point of view. I guess part of it is I’ll look at what they do. You know, sometimes you see things that illustrate what not to do. I’m trying to constantly sort of shape my point of view at the velocity of things.
Somebody might do something and it will occur to me, "Well, they didn’t utilize the space well." Or, you know, I need to make sure I don’t do that or fall in a rut. I might even look at a team that doesn’t do things well and see some little aspect and think, "Well, I could incorporate that." Then, the other thing is you see teams do things really effectively and really add some things where I’ve been kind of a, you know I could learn something here.
So, I just try to analyze it. I try to follow teams that I’m kind of excited about what they do scheme-wise. You know, I don’t want to make football sound boring. It’s certainly not at any level, but I don’t really root for teams as much as I do kind of coaches, schemes that I am interested in, you know?
Coach Leach is also the author of "Swing Your Sword" and "Sports for Dorks".
Follow us on Twitter @TFGridiron
Friday, December 16, 2011
Ask an Expert: Mike Leach Responds, Part I
We've finally got the answers to the questions you posed to Mike Leach, even if they were a bit late. We had a pretty long conversation with him, so we've decided to break up the content into four parts. Today is Part I.
Q: Do you think that fans and the college football media will ever become fully accepting of coaches who coach to win by doing things like going for it on fourth down and not punting as often, as opposed to conservative coaches that simply try not to lose?
A: I think the fans are in favor of going for it on fourth down and have been for a long time. I mean, you know, it’s funny. There’s two things fans want, and it’s a little bit like if you go up to a kid and say, "I’ll give you an ice cream cone right now or $50 later," typically they’ll take the ice cream cone.
By that same token, fans are result-oriented, too. If you get it, it’s brilliant. If you don’t get it, you should have punted, but I’ve been in some situations where I wouldn’t even dare go for it on fourth down. I mean, the fans are screaming, "Go for it! Go for it!" You know what I mean?
So I doubt that they're not going to complain about the results if it doesn’t come out right, but I think the fans are wholeheartedly in favor of going for it on fourth down.
Not all of them, obviously, but I think most are. I mean, some of it’s just the euphoria. The games provide surprise and opportunity, I think going for it on fourth down is part of it.
Q: Do you think that fans and the college football media will ever become fully accepting of coaches who coach to win by doing things like going for it on fourth down and not punting as often, as opposed to conservative coaches that simply try not to lose?
A: I think the fans are in favor of going for it on fourth down and have been for a long time. I mean, you know, it’s funny. There’s two things fans want, and it’s a little bit like if you go up to a kid and say, "I’ll give you an ice cream cone right now or $50 later," typically they’ll take the ice cream cone.
By that same token, fans are result-oriented, too. If you get it, it’s brilliant. If you don’t get it, you should have punted, but I’ve been in some situations where I wouldn’t even dare go for it on fourth down. I mean, the fans are screaming, "Go for it! Go for it!" You know what I mean?
So I doubt that they're not going to complain about the results if it doesn’t come out right, but I think the fans are wholeheartedly in favor of going for it on fourth down.
Not all of them, obviously, but I think most are. I mean, some of it’s just the euphoria. The games provide surprise and opportunity, I think going for it on fourth down is part of it.
Q: Moneyball revolutionized professional baseball. There exists a similar economic imbalance in college football. Do you think college football will ever embrace a quantitative approach to recruiting, and if so, do you think it could be as successful?
A: I think they’re trying to, as we speak. They’re trying to figure it out. You know, you range from open-minded totally zany ideas where you don’t have core beliefs and you’re trying everything and some of the bizarre stuff too. And stuff like, you know where this is how we’ve always done it and this is the good old days and all that. I think it’s mixed.
But I think football is trying to embrace stuff like that. You don’t know quite how to do it. Baseball lends to itself better because you have a lot of numbers. Now football has all the numbers you need. They may not be measuring the right things and should measure more stuff, like obviously time of possession is ridiculously overrated and the rest, but there’s plenty of numbers.
But I think football is trying to embrace stuff like that. You don’t know quite how to do it. Baseball lends to itself better because you have a lot of numbers. Now football has all the numbers you need. They may not be measuring the right things and should measure more stuff, like obviously time of possession is ridiculously overrated and the rest, but there’s plenty of numbers.
And nobody ... it’s the most technological sport in the world, football. So they don’t lack in technology and numbers. What they lack is baseball, you know, there are standing, static situations. A batter is up to bat. A pitcher pitches. Okay, and then what happens? And then you measure it. The trouble with football is you’ve got twenty-two moving parts on any given play. I mean, there’s twenty-two people moving at once. A variance switch could affect the outcome.
I think being able to bottle that up and measure that I think presents a different set of problems and I think it’s more difficult. We just release a book called "Sports for Dorks" for football -- make sure you blog "Sports for Dorks" for football and "Swing Your Sword" -- but at any rate, uh, yeah, [laughing] because many people will buy them in Boston. [Editor’s note: For the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.] The first book is "Swing Your Sword," which is on my path into coaching and kind of some of my influences.
Yeah, I just don’t want to belabor the point. If you hadn’t heard of it, I was going to tell you -- if you haven’t heard of it -- to just stop me. But "Sports for Dorks for Footbal" is inspired by "Moneyball," "Freakonomics," and the Malcolm Gladwell books. What we did is we reached out to mathemeticians, statisticians -- in fact you should write an article for our next one when we do one again -- statisticians, mathemeticians, an astrophysicist, a world backgammon champion, an expert on the history of the spread offense, and a face reader for the FBI. He talks a little bit about recruiting and measuring individuals, and what’s revealed in expression and things on their face. So there’s a lot of dimension to that question.
You know, football has rating systems, a lot of them are effective and some of them are ineffective. The most ineffective, of course, are the recruiting services. You know, the kids have this many stars and so many stars, and it’s based on the media being involved, and obviously if you cover a team all the time, you put recruits on their list that you’re recruiting, and all of a sudden, they’ll get more stars and whatever. So, a lot of that is pretty artificial and ineffective.
You know, football has rating systems, a lot of them are effective and some of them are ineffective. The most ineffective, of course, are the recruiting services. You know, the kids have this many stars and so many stars, and it’s based on the media being involved, and obviously if you cover a team all the time, you put recruits on their list that you’re recruiting, and all of a sudden, they’ll get more stars and whatever. So, a lot of that is pretty artificial and ineffective.
I think that football is trying to. But the challenges are that they are so many people moving so many different directions and different variables. They are trying to capture it, and I think they’re going to make progress. I do think it's going improve recruiting, and I just hope I’m at the top of the curve when it happens.
Part II will be available on Monday the 19th.
Part II will be available on Monday the 19th.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
Ask an Expert: Update
We're taking a brief hiatus from "Ask an Expert" while we type up the answers from Coach Leach. We've got about a half-hour of Q&A with Coach Leach to transcribe, and we'll be posting a few answers each Saturday while we queue up the next round of experts.
Until then, if you can't wait to hear from Coach Leach, there's always his Sports for Dorks book, or his recently-released "Swing Your Sword".
Previous Ask an Expert Q&A
Alex Quigley of WGN Chicago
Ken Massey of the BCS
Until then, if you can't wait to hear from Coach Leach, there's always his Sports for Dorks book, or his recently-released "Swing Your Sword".
Previous Ask an Expert Q&A
Alex Quigley of WGN Chicago
Ken Massey of the BCS
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Ask an Expert Responses: Ken Massey
Thanks to everyone who submitted a question to BCS stats guru Ken Massey. Ken actually went above and beyond the call of duty and answered pretty much all the questions that people submitted. A big, big thanks to Ken to fielding all these questions.
Q: "What is the most unintuitive thing you've learned by studying college football statistics?"
- Anonymous
A: I am always amazed at how thin the line is between a winner and a loser. The better team loses 30% of the time, and the media never seem to realize that head-to-head may not always give you an accurate indicator of which team is really better. It takes an entire season of results to get any sort of accurate assessment.
Q: "Several years ago Bill James wrote an article urging statisticians to avoid participating in the BCS because he felt the rules surrounding what the computers could and couldn't do was fundamentally flawed. Apparently you disagree. Why?"
- Anonymous
A: I take it as a challenge to create a model that gives reasonable results using censored data. Bill James is a very good "hacker" statistician, but I don't think that gives him the right to be critical of others that take a more abstract approach.
Q: "We do this as a hobby, but you do it for the BCS. How much time do you spend working on your algorithm in a given week? Do changes require external approval?"
- Eddie P.
A: The algorithm itself doesn't change much. I did have to modify it to remove all margin of victory from the BCS version several years ago. I spend more time maintaining the ranking comparison. Yes, if I were to change my BCS compliant model, I would have to get approval from the BCS.
Q:"How often do you tweak the inner workings of your system? What situations/scenarios in the past have caused you to take another look at how your rankings work?"
- TempoFreeGridiron
A: I have always started with the mathematical model, and have not been tempted to tweak because of results that I don't personally agree with. Sometimes I don't like how the rankings turn out, but I trust the mathematics. I have tinkered with adding more data to the system (scoring, statistics, etc), but the BCS version doesn't allow any of that.
Q: "Last year there was an issue when the Colley rankings used an incomplete data set for the pre-bowl rankings. It was found and fixed, but how did this happen? Doesn't the BCS give you all the data or spring for a STATS, Inc. subscription?"
- Anonymous
A: No, the BCS does not provide the data. Each of us collects the scores independently. In previous seasons, we informally compared results, and so the Colley mistake was caught, but not until after the official release. Starting this year, we have a protocol to compare checksums of the data before the BCS standings are released.
Q: "Understanding that your formula is proprietary, what factors are considered by your rankings? What factors are not considered?"
- ral315
A: BCS version - who you played, whether you won or lost, and where the game was played. Your results vs teams of your own caliber are most important. So a good team is primarily judged on how it does against other good teams.
Q: "How did you get the BCS gig, anyway? That's a huge accomplishment for a 26 year old statistician."
- Eddie P.
A: I did an undergraduate math project on rating models. After that, I created a web page to continue the project as a hobby. Roy Kramer, commissioner of the SEC, found my site as his group did research on the computer component of the BCS formula. He just called me out of the blue.
Q: "Even though margin of victory is not technically used or allowed in BCS rankings, isnt GOF [Ed. note: Game Outcome Function] affected to some degree by the margin of victory ?"
- mika
A: [Y]es, in my main ratings margin of victory goes into it, but for the BCS I cannot use margin of victory.
Q1: "What are the reasons for dropping Wisconsin 9 spots after losing to a ranked MSU team, in East Lansing, on a last second Hail Mary pass, and then only dropping Oklahoma 6 spots, after losing at home, to an unranked Texas Tech team on the same day?"
- pico
Q2: "So Wisconsin, statistically overall a better team than Oklahoma, loses to a ranked Michigan State and falls more spots than a Oklahoma losing to an unranked Texas Tech, how can that be said to make any sense?"
- WhyteRaven74
A: Another Wisconsin loss answers this question.
Q: "Why do you hate college football? And why isn't a playoff good enough for Division 1-Fbs football when it's good enough for every other football league in the United States?"
Aaron
A: College football may be the only league where the regular season really matters. I'd hate to ruin that with a large playoff. We currently have a 2 team playoff. I'd support a 4 team playoff; 8 at the very most.
Q: "What is the most unintuitive thing you've learned by studying college football statistics?"
- Anonymous
A: I am always amazed at how thin the line is between a winner and a loser. The better team loses 30% of the time, and the media never seem to realize that head-to-head may not always give you an accurate indicator of which team is really better. It takes an entire season of results to get any sort of accurate assessment.
Q: "Several years ago Bill James wrote an article urging statisticians to avoid participating in the BCS because he felt the rules surrounding what the computers could and couldn't do was fundamentally flawed. Apparently you disagree. Why?"
- Anonymous
A: I take it as a challenge to create a model that gives reasonable results using censored data. Bill James is a very good "hacker" statistician, but I don't think that gives him the right to be critical of others that take a more abstract approach.
Q: "We do this as a hobby, but you do it for the BCS. How much time do you spend working on your algorithm in a given week? Do changes require external approval?"
- Eddie P.
A: The algorithm itself doesn't change much. I did have to modify it to remove all margin of victory from the BCS version several years ago. I spend more time maintaining the ranking comparison. Yes, if I were to change my BCS compliant model, I would have to get approval from the BCS.
Q:"How often do you tweak the inner workings of your system? What situations/scenarios in the past have caused you to take another look at how your rankings work?"
- TempoFreeGridiron
A: I have always started with the mathematical model, and have not been tempted to tweak because of results that I don't personally agree with. Sometimes I don't like how the rankings turn out, but I trust the mathematics. I have tinkered with adding more data to the system (scoring, statistics, etc), but the BCS version doesn't allow any of that.
Q: "Last year there was an issue when the Colley rankings used an incomplete data set for the pre-bowl rankings. It was found and fixed, but how did this happen? Doesn't the BCS give you all the data or spring for a STATS, Inc. subscription?"
- Anonymous
A: No, the BCS does not provide the data. Each of us collects the scores independently. In previous seasons, we informally compared results, and so the Colley mistake was caught, but not until after the official release. Starting this year, we have a protocol to compare checksums of the data before the BCS standings are released.
Q: "Understanding that your formula is proprietary, what factors are considered by your rankings? What factors are not considered?"
- ral315
A: BCS version - who you played, whether you won or lost, and where the game was played. Your results vs teams of your own caliber are most important. So a good team is primarily judged on how it does against other good teams.
Q: "How did you get the BCS gig, anyway? That's a huge accomplishment for a 26 year old statistician."
- Eddie P.
A: I did an undergraduate math project on rating models. After that, I created a web page to continue the project as a hobby. Roy Kramer, commissioner of the SEC, found my site as his group did research on the computer component of the BCS formula. He just called me out of the blue.
Q: "Even though margin of victory is not technically used or allowed in BCS rankings, isnt GOF [Ed. note: Game Outcome Function] affected to some degree by the margin of victory ?"
- mika
A: [Y]es, in my main ratings margin of victory goes into it, but for the BCS I cannot use margin of victory.
Q1: "What are the reasons for dropping Wisconsin 9 spots after losing to a ranked MSU team, in East Lansing, on a last second Hail Mary pass, and then only dropping Oklahoma 6 spots, after losing at home, to an unranked Texas Tech team on the same day?"
- pico
Q2: "So Wisconsin, statistically overall a better team than Oklahoma, loses to a ranked Michigan State and falls more spots than a Oklahoma losing to an unranked Texas Tech, how can that be said to make any sense?"
- WhyteRaven74
A: Another Wisconsin loss answers this question.
Q: "Why do you hate college football? And why isn't a playoff good enough for Division 1-Fbs football when it's good enough for every other football league in the United States?"
Aaron
A: College football may be the only league where the regular season really matters. I'd hate to ruin that with a large playoff. We currently have a 2 team playoff. I'd support a 4 team playoff; 8 at the very most.
Saturday, November 5, 2011
Ask an Expert: Mike Leach
This week in "Ask an Expert" we're pleased and honored to have former Texas Tech coach and current CBS Sports commentator Mike Leach. Coach Leach is one of the most intriguing figures in college football.
Current expert: Mike Leach
Submit questions: Google Moderator site.
Deadline: Noon, EDT, November 12th
Responses Posted: November 19th
Bio: Mike Leach is an announcer for CBS College Sports Network. For 10 years ending in 2009 he was head coach of the Texas Tech Red Raiders football team. Leach had a winning season every year during his tenure at Texas Tech. Coach Leach developed the potent "Air Raid" offense, where the philosophy is "to create as much confusion as possible for the defense while keeping things as simple as possible for the offense." Low-tech but data-driven, Coach Leach is known for ignoring convention in favor of what works, even if "what works" isn't popular.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Leach_(coach)
December 2005 New York Times article on Coach Leach
Current expert: Mike Leach
Submit questions: Google Moderator site.
Deadline: Noon, EDT, November 12th
Responses Posted: November 19th
Bio: Mike Leach is an announcer for CBS College Sports Network. For 10 years ending in 2009 he was head coach of the Texas Tech Red Raiders football team. Leach had a winning season every year during his tenure at Texas Tech. Coach Leach developed the potent "Air Raid" offense, where the philosophy is "to create as much confusion as possible for the defense while keeping things as simple as possible for the offense." Low-tech but data-driven, Coach Leach is known for ignoring convention in favor of what works, even if "what works" isn't popular.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Leach_(coach)
December 2005 New York Times article on Coach Leach
Ask an Expert Responses: Alex Quigley
Thanks to everyone who submitted a question for our first expert, WGN of Chicago radio host Alex Quigley. A big thanks to Alex, of course, for being a good sport and stepping up to the plate here. And without further ado we present the top five questions as voted by you, the readers.
Q: On one hand, fans are willing to grind through obscure statistics to pick the perfect fantasy football lineup. On the other hand, they dismiss computers that do the same thing to pick teams in an algorithmic fashion. What gives?
- Eddie
A: I don't think those are the same fans, necessarily. If anything, those uber-FFL stat grinders would love to have a computer program successfully do it for them. But for the anti-Skynet crowd, I think it's more about being able to "do it themselves"; part of the whole draw of FFL is to become the owner/manager/coach, and building a team that's better than everyone else's in your league is a goal that some people want to take full credit for, instead of a computer formula.
Q: You've been made king of D-IA and the BCS. What do you do? Playoff? Keep it how it is? Kill all the bowl games? If you make a playoff, what does it look like?
- Anonymous
A: I wouldn't have answered this way a few years ago...but I'd keep the system as it is. The intensity of the regular season IS effectively a playoff system...we had a couple of freak years where everyone lost 2 games, it seemed, but generally speaking there's a top 2 teams that are apparent at season's end. At least we get a 1 vs 2 game. (Now, if I'm really King of the FBS, I get rid of a few of the lesser bowls that really don't mean a damn thing to anybody and I start paying players above-board, but I think that's a different question.)
Q: Lots of fans root for teams that have zero chance of ever playing for the national championship. As a long-time Cubs fan, what advice do you have for them?
- Anonymous
A: First: HAW HAW YOU FUNNY MORE LIKE FUNNONYMOUS Second: It's not quite the same. Due to the nature of CFB voting and the huge difference that SOS makes for FBS teams, there really is no way Houston would play for the title this year. Every single team could get 2 losses and Houston still wouldn't make it. The Cubs COULD make it one of these years...dammit, I'm flashing back to that 2008 team. Everyone always eulogizes the 2003 team but to me that 2008 team was a steamroller of awesome. Dodgers hit that grand slam in the FIFTH INNING of GAME ONE...and the series was OVER. So disappointing to see the curse of The Curse get into the heads of professional ballplayers. But they're a big-market team with a new GM (didja hear?), and they'll eventually do it. I may not be alive to see it, but it'll happen. You made me allcaps'ed.
Q: Sure, you're frustrated with fantasy football, but do you think that it has a net positive on the sport?
- Eddie
A: Oh, absolutely from a business angle. So much more attention and more money spent on the product. FFL may not have created more football fans, but it certainly converted more casual fans into intense fans. As for the sport itself, I don't think it's been changed by FFL. Bill Belicheck and Mike Shanahan won't allow it. But I do think there's a Billion Dollar League out there somewhere comprised of the most powerful people in the world, and every once in a while I see a stat line or phantom injury that make me think, "ooh, the BDL got to someone this week".
Q: Illinois hired Ron Zook, and the Bears had Rex Grossman for a while. Does Chicago not get TV channels that carry SEC games?
- TempoFreeGridiron
A: Changing topic because the anger is rising: CBS's SEC football theme = best sports TV theme around. For like, 25 years now, right?
Q: On one hand, fans are willing to grind through obscure statistics to pick the perfect fantasy football lineup. On the other hand, they dismiss computers that do the same thing to pick teams in an algorithmic fashion. What gives?
- Eddie
A: I don't think those are the same fans, necessarily. If anything, those uber-FFL stat grinders would love to have a computer program successfully do it for them. But for the anti-Skynet crowd, I think it's more about being able to "do it themselves"; part of the whole draw of FFL is to become the owner/manager/coach, and building a team that's better than everyone else's in your league is a goal that some people want to take full credit for, instead of a computer formula.
Q: You've been made king of D-IA and the BCS. What do you do? Playoff? Keep it how it is? Kill all the bowl games? If you make a playoff, what does it look like?
- Anonymous
A: I wouldn't have answered this way a few years ago...but I'd keep the system as it is. The intensity of the regular season IS effectively a playoff system...we had a couple of freak years where everyone lost 2 games, it seemed, but generally speaking there's a top 2 teams that are apparent at season's end. At least we get a 1 vs 2 game. (Now, if I'm really King of the FBS, I get rid of a few of the lesser bowls that really don't mean a damn thing to anybody and I start paying players above-board, but I think that's a different question.)
Q: Lots of fans root for teams that have zero chance of ever playing for the national championship. As a long-time Cubs fan, what advice do you have for them?
- Anonymous
A: First: HAW HAW YOU FUNNY MORE LIKE FUNNONYMOUS Second: It's not quite the same. Due to the nature of CFB voting and the huge difference that SOS makes for FBS teams, there really is no way Houston would play for the title this year. Every single team could get 2 losses and Houston still wouldn't make it. The Cubs COULD make it one of these years...dammit, I'm flashing back to that 2008 team. Everyone always eulogizes the 2003 team but to me that 2008 team was a steamroller of awesome. Dodgers hit that grand slam in the FIFTH INNING of GAME ONE...and the series was OVER. So disappointing to see the curse of The Curse get into the heads of professional ballplayers. But they're a big-market team with a new GM (didja hear?), and they'll eventually do it. I may not be alive to see it, but it'll happen. You made me allcaps'ed.
Q: Sure, you're frustrated with fantasy football, but do you think that it has a net positive on the sport?
- Eddie
A: Oh, absolutely from a business angle. So much more attention and more money spent on the product. FFL may not have created more football fans, but it certainly converted more casual fans into intense fans. As for the sport itself, I don't think it's been changed by FFL. Bill Belicheck and Mike Shanahan won't allow it. But I do think there's a Billion Dollar League out there somewhere comprised of the most powerful people in the world, and every once in a while I see a stat line or phantom injury that make me think, "ooh, the BDL got to someone this week".
Q: Illinois hired Ron Zook, and the Bears had Rex Grossman for a while. Does Chicago not get TV channels that carry SEC games?
- TempoFreeGridiron
A: Changing topic because the anger is rising: CBS's SEC football theme = best sports TV theme around. For like, 25 years now, right?
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Ask an Expert Update: Ken Massey
I just want to remind our readers that you've still got two days left to submit questions for BCS computer guru Ken Massey. The deadline is noon, EDT, this Saturday. Ken's already gone through and answered a few questions in brief, but there's still time to ask new ones and vote on existing ones. We'll post his full answers here on Saturday, November 12th.
Also this Saturday we'll have answers from our first expert, WGN of Chicago host Alex Quigley.
Bio: "Kenneth Massey is an American sports statistician known for his development of a methodology for ranking and rating sports teams in a variety of sports. His ratings have been a part of the Bowl Championship Series since the 1999 season."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Massey
College Football Ranking Comparison
Also this Saturday we'll have answers from our first expert, WGN of Chicago host Alex Quigley.
Bio: "Kenneth Massey is an American sports statistician known for his development of a methodology for ranking and rating sports teams in a variety of sports. His ratings have been a part of the Bowl Championship Series since the 1999 season."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Massey
College Football Ranking Comparison
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Ask an Expert: Kenneth Massey of the BCS
This week in "Ask an Expert" we're pleased and honored to have Kenneth Massey as our expert. His computer ranking system has been part of the BCS for twelve years now, and currently accounts for one-sixth of the BCS computer rankings. He's been part of the BCS through several revisions and tweaks to the system, including several controversies. You'll have a week to think of anything you'd like to ask him, submit questions, and vote existing questions up or down. After a week he'll take the top 4-6 questions, spend a week mulling them over, and post his answers here.
Current expert: Kenneth Massey
Submit questions: Google Moderator site.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Massey
College Football Ranking Comparison
Current expert: Kenneth Massey
Submit questions: Google Moderator site.
Deadline: Noon EDT, November 5th
Responses posted: November 12th
Bio: "Kenneth Massey is an American sports statistician known for his development of a methodology for ranking and rating sports teams in a variety of sports. His ratings have been a part of the Bowl Championship Series since the 1999 season."http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Massey
College Football Ranking Comparison
Saturday, October 22, 2011
New Feature: Ask an Expert
In our never-ending quest to bring you more compelling content, we're tentatively launching a new feature called "Ask an Expert." Ever wanted to ask a sports journalist what it's like to meet his heroes? Ever wanted to rail at a BCS expert about how incredibly broken the system is? Here you'll get a chance to do all that and more.
On Saturday we'll announce the expert for the coming week. You, dear reader, will have a week to come up with questions for the expert, as well as vote on existing questions. The forum will be open for a week with the goal of having five or six good questions by the next Saturday. The expert will then take a week to ponder you questions, cull the depths of their knowledge, and craft brilliant answers. Their genius will then be unleashed upon the world one week later.
Our inaugural expert will be today's guest blogger, WGN of Chicago radio host Alex Quigley. From the WGN website:
The forum will be open from now until Saturday, October 29th. We'll post Alex's answers the following Saturday, November 5th.
On Saturday we'll announce the expert for the coming week. You, dear reader, will have a week to come up with questions for the expert, as well as vote on existing questions. The forum will be open for a week with the goal of having five or six good questions by the next Saturday. The expert will then take a week to ponder you questions, cull the depths of their knowledge, and craft brilliant answers. Their genius will then be unleashed upon the world one week later.
Our inaugural expert will be today's guest blogger, WGN of Chicago radio host Alex Quigley. From the WGN website:
"Alex Quigley is the host of "ChicagoNow Radio" on News 720 WGN. He also hosts "PrepsPlus Chicago" and serves as assistant program director at the station. [...] He attended the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, graduating in 2000 with a degree in broadcast journalism. Quigley also served as a student assistant coach for the University of Illinois Fighting Illini football team, handling kickers, punters, and long snappers.Submit your questions at our Google Moderator site.
[...]
He can be found on Twitter at @alexquigley."
The forum will be open from now until Saturday, October 29th. We'll post Alex's answers the following Saturday, November 5th.
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