Week 10: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Fresno St. (0.146); Boston College (0.137); Ohio (0.125); Arkansas St. (0.120); Central Michigan (0.109)

Biggest drops: Virginia (-0.162); Idaho (-0.112); Utah (-0.111); LA-Lafayette (-0.104); UNLV (-0.096)

Full rankings after the jump.

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews: Part I

Today is Part I of our 2013 - 2014 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
  Ohio Bobcats vs East Carolina Pirates
• Heart of Dallas Bowl
  North Texas Mean Green vs UNLV Rebels
• New Era Pinstripe Bowl
  Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights
• Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
  Navy Midshipmen vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
• Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
  Maryland Terrapins vs Marshall Thundering Herd

Full previews after the jump ....

Week 15: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Marshall (0.086); UNLV (0.067); North Texas (0.067); Temple (0.059); SJSU (0.058)

Biggest drops: Memphis (-0.068); SMU (-0.067); SDSU (-0.066); Fresno St. (-0.053); Vanderbilt (-0.050)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Kansas (0.081); Rice (0.051); UNLV (0.049); Northern Ill. (0.046); Cincinnati (0.043)

Biggest drops: South Alabama (-0.077); LA Tech (-0.076); Ohio (-0.063); California (-0.055); Wyoming (-0.034)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Iowa St. (0.100); Ball St. (0.088); Connecticut (0.084); Miami-FL (0.070); Hawaii (0.060)

Biggest drops: Ohio (-0.162); Louisville (-0.160); Virginia Tech (-0.081); UNLV (-0.071); LA Tech (-0.053)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Pittsburgh (0.047); Mississippi (0.042); Hawaii (0.040); Fresno St. (0.040); Memphis (0.036)

Biggest drops: Utah (-0.047); Auburn (-0.046); Rutgers (-0.045); UNLV (-0.040); Washington (-0.038)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 11: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Pittsburgh (0.185); Kent St. (0.174); UNLV (0.098); Iowa St. (0.089); UCLA (0.088)

Biggest drops: Arizona (-0.155); California (-0.117); North Carolina St. (-0.080); Oregon St. (-0.059); Maryland (-0.056)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 3: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Washington St. (0.431); UCF (0.204); FIU (0.121); Maryland (0.118); LA-Lafayette (0.067)

Biggest drops: Nevada (-0.188); Navy (-0.129); Minnesota (-0.117); UNLV (-0.103); SMU (-0.096)

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Stanford	1.000	0.546	20	26.8	2	9.5	7	83.8	46
2	+1	Boise St.	1.000	0.458	97	26.4	3	9.2	5	84.6	29
3	-1	Alabama	0.992	0.550	16	23.5	10	7.0	1	78.9	120
4	+5	Oregon	0.975	0.535	39	27.6	1	10.4	12	87.9	3
5	+1	Ohio St.	0.974	0.528	50	21.8	14	9.1	4	79.8	113
6	+1	Oklahoma	0.965	0.542	27	23.3	12	8.9	3	85.4	18
7	+4	Wisconsin	0.965	0.535	40	25.8	4	11.6	19	81.0	106
8	-4	TCU	0.957	0.462	92	25.3	5	11.7	20	84.2	38
9	-1	LSU	0.956	0.550	15	22.0	13	9.7	8	80.4	111
10	+2	Oklahoma St.	0.956	0.551	14	24.0	9	13.4	34	86.0	10
11	-1	Iowa	0.921	0.525	56	18.5	39	13.8	37	82.0	91
12	-7	Auburn	0.913	0.542	26	24.6	7	17.1	69	79.6	116
13	+3	Virginia Tech	0.907	0.529	48	19.9	24	9.8	9	79.1	118
14	--	Arkansas	0.904	0.569	1	24.3	8	11.6	18	82.6	82
15	+2	Florida	0.895	0.553	12	21.6	15	8.5	2	80.8	108
16	-3	Nebraska	0.895	0.531	47	20.7	20	11.8	22	83.5	60
17	+1	Florida St.	0.887	0.553	11	19.8	25	9.3	6	83.2	67
18	-3	West Virginia	0.871	0.538	31	17.6	47	10.1	10	82.7	79
19	+2	North Carolina St.	0.856	0.529	49	17.6	46	15.8	58	83.5	55
20	-1	South Carolina	0.852	0.545	22	24.9	6	16.6	65	79.0	119
21	-1	Pittsburgh	0.851	0.527	53	17.2	53	12.0	24	82.1	89
22	+2	Georgia	0.829	0.555	8	23.5	11	13.1	31	79.7	114
23	-1	Mississippi St.	0.828	0.562	4	20.5	22	12.9	30	81.3	103
24	+10	Arizona St.	0.816	0.526	55	19.3	30	11.8	21	87.0	5
25	+6	Texas A&M	0.809	0.554	10	20.4	23	12.0	23	85.4	17
26	-3	Missouri	0.796	0.526	54	15.8	65	10.7	13	86.9	6
27	+3	USC	0.781	0.536	38	16.9	55	12.6	28	83.4	62
28	+26	UCF	0.781	0.462	93	17.7	44	10.2	11	82.1	90
29	+3	Texas	0.776	0.519	60	16.7	58	11.4	15	84.1	42
30	+3	Illinois	0.775	0.539	30	19.6	28	14.2	44	84.9	23
Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
31	-4	Notre Dame	0.761	0.565	3	17.5	50	13.9	43	82.4	85
32	-4	Arizona	0.761	0.561	5	17.4	51	11.4	16	83.6	53
33	+2	North Carolina	0.748	0.545	24	16.1	62	13.6	36	81.9	95
34	+5	Tennessee	0.741	0.540	28	21.4	17	13.9	40	80.4	110
35	+11	Maryland	0.738	0.524	57	19.0	33	13.9	41	82.0	93
36	-10	Miami-FL	0.736	0.556	7	15.4	67	12.3	26	81.6	101
37	+1	Penn State	0.722	0.547	18	17.2	52	12.4	27	81.7	96
38	+2	South Florida	0.722	0.528	51	15.2	69	10.7	14	84.4	35
39	-2	Clemson	0.703	0.523	59	16.4	60	11.5	17	83.2	64
40	-4	Air Force	0.700	0.475	83	17.5	48	13.9	39	82.2	87
41	--	Utah	0.679	0.467	89	18.7	36	12.7	29	83.0	72
42	-13	Navy	0.664	0.435	114	18.6	38	14.9	47	79.6	115
43	-1	Michigan St.	0.652	0.540	29	19.6	29	13.3	33	83.8	48
44	+6	SDSU	0.648	0.495	71	18.1	41	15.7	57	84.4	36
45	-2	Louisville	0.630	0.494	74	14.9	72	13.9	42	83.5	58
46	+2	Georgia Tech	0.625	0.531	46	19.7	27	15.6	55	82.0	94
47	-22	Nevada	0.619	0.468	88	21.3	18	18.5	82	85.2	22
48	-1	Texas Tech	0.618	0.528	52	18.7	35	15.7	56	89.5	1
49	-4	California	0.618	0.537	35	17.8	42	15.3	52	84.0	44
50	-1	Baylor	0.604	0.568	2	17.8	43	15.2	49	85.7	15
51	+1	Kansas St.	0.587	0.531	44	20.7	19	18.2	78	83.1	68
52	+4	BYU	0.577	0.483	76	15.2	71	12.0	25	84.8	25
53	-9	Connecticut	0.573	0.471	86	14.7	75	14.3	45	83.0	70
54	+1	Michigan	0.573	0.546	21	21.6	16	18.1	77	84.6	30
55	-4	Kentucky	0.561	0.544	25	16.0	64	13.5	35	82.9	74
56	-3	Northern Ill.	0.558	0.445	106	18.5	40	16.5	64	81.7	98
57	+5	Washington	0.536	0.551	13	19.0	32	16.5	63	84.2	40
58	+1	Hawaii	0.521	0.472	85	20.5	21	19.1	86	85.7	13
59	+2	Mississippi	0.509	0.523	58	16.8	56	15.9	59	81.7	97
60	-2	Tulsa	0.509	0.464	90	18.7	37	16.7	66	85.2	21
Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
61	-4	Southern Miss.	0.504	0.485	75	17.7	45	17.3	71	84.2	41
62	-2	Temple	0.482	0.498	70	14.4	81	13.8	38	81.2	105
63	+4	Houston	0.474	0.476	82	19.3	31	19.6	93	87.4	4
64	--	Cincinnati	0.470	0.519	61	17.2	54	17.9	75	84.3	37
65	-2	Oregon St.	0.455	0.549	17	14.3	82	16.2	60	85.7	14
66	+2	Syracuse	0.452	0.547	19	13.8	88	15.1	48	81.6	100
67	+2	Northwestern	0.439	0.514	64	14.6	78	15.3	53	88.7	2
68	+52	Washington St.	0.431	0.537	34	19.7	26	16.3	62	86.3	9
69	-3	UCLA	0.425	0.545	23	14.8	74	17.0	68	83.8	47
70	+14	FIU	0.412	0.449	104	16.1	63	15.6	54	82.7	81
71	-6	Boston College	0.407	0.532	43	10.2	108	13.3	32	83.7	50
72	-1	Vanderbilt	0.372	0.555	9	13.0	96	15.3	51	80.9	107
73	+2	Fresno St.	0.369	0.494	73	17.5	49	20.3	97	82.9	75
74	-4	Colorado	0.368	0.558	6	15.6	66	18.2	80	84.5	33
75	-2	Virginia	0.358	0.531	45	14.5	80	18.5	81	82.0	92
76	-2	Iowa St.	0.356	0.538	32	13.8	87	15.3	50	84.2	39
77	-1	Troy	0.351	0.438	110	16.4	61	21.2	100	85.3	19
78	+3	East Carolina	0.321	0.482	77	19.0	34	22.1	107	84.9	24
79	+1	LA Tech	0.318	0.503	69	13.4	92	16.9	67	86.0	11
80	-3	Central Michigan	0.318	0.449	103	13.1	95	17.6	73	86.9	7
81	-2	Rutgers	0.315	0.514	65	13.9	86	16.3	61	82.5	83
82	+1	Army	0.306	0.460	95	14.8	73	19.3	89	81.3	104
83	-1	Duke	0.303	0.537	36	15.2	68	19.5	90	83.4	61
84	+7	Arkansas St.	0.295	0.430	117	13.6	90	19.1	87	81.4	102
85	-13	SMU	0.294	0.482	78	14.2	83	18.9	85	83.0	73
86	+2	Western Michigan	0.292	0.456	100	12.3	100	18.6	83	85.2	20
87	--	Toledo	0.282	0.445	107	16.5	59	18.2	79	84.0	45
88	-3	Ohio	0.268	0.436	112	14.6	77	19.3	88	80.8	109
89	+6	Marshall	0.237	0.474	84	12.5	98	17.3	70	82.8	78
90	+4	Kansas	0.234	0.535	41	16.7	57	21.0	99	85.8	12
Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
91	-2	Miami-OH	0.230	0.445	105	10.9	104	14.8	46	82.9	76
92	-6	Purdue	0.221	0.533	42	12.0	102	17.4	72	86.6	8
93	-1	UAB	0.219	0.480	79	12.1	101	20.2	96	82.2	88
94	-16	Minnesota	0.216	0.536	37	13.1	94	17.8	74	83.5	54
95	-5	Wake Forest	0.211	0.514	63	15.2	70	19.6	92	83.7	49
96	-3	UTEP	0.190	0.450	101	14.0	84	22.9	110	85.6	16
97	-1	Indiana	0.167	0.538	33	14.5	79	21.4	103	84.6	28
98	+2	Middle Tenn.	0.162	0.412	120	12.4	99	23.3	114	83.6	51
99	-1	Idaho	0.159	0.458	96	12.7	97	22.2	108	84.5	32
100	+2	Rice	0.158	0.478	80	13.5	91	21.3	101	84.7	26
101	-2	Bowling Green	0.152	0.444	108	13.8	89	20.1	94	84.5	34
102	-1	Wyoming	0.142	0.516	62	11.8	103	19.5	91	83.4	63
103	--	Ball St.	0.137	0.456	99	10.3	107	20.2	95	82.7	80
104	-7	Kent St.	0.124	0.449	102	9.3	114	18.0	76	83.1	69
105	+8	LA-Lafayette	0.120	0.427	119	14.0	85	23.2	113	83.5	59
106	-1	LA-Monroe	0.111	0.436	113	8.8	116	21.5	104	83.2	65
107	--	SJSU	0.095	0.505	66	9.8	113	23.1	112	83.6	52
108	+2	Tulane	0.078	0.468	87	9.9	111	21.8	105	84.5	31
109	-1	Western Kentucky	0.078	0.443	109	10.2	109	20.5	98	79.5	117
110	-1	Colorado St.	0.078	0.494	72	9.9	112	21.8	106	80.4	112
111	-7	North Texas	0.070	0.428	118	13.4	93	24.4	116	81.7	99
112	--	Utah St.	0.052	0.504	67	14.6	76	21.4	102	84.0	43
113	+3	New Mexico St.	0.051	0.456	98	10.1	110	25.2	117	83.2	66
114	-3	FL-Atlantic	0.043	0.433	115	7.3	119	23.1	111	82.3	86
115	-1	New Mexico	0.042	0.476	81	7.8	118	22.8	109	83.5	56
116	+2	Buffalo	0.025	0.437	111	8.9	115	18.7	84	83.0	71
117	--	Eastern Michigan	0.025	0.464	91	10.5	106	33.2	120	82.5	84
118	+1	Akron	0.017	0.431	116	6.0	120	23.9	115	83.5	57
119	-4	Memphis	0.000	0.461	94	8.2	117	27.0	118	84.6	27
120	-14	UNLV	0.000	0.504	68	10.8	105	28.6	119	82.9	77

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Week 2: Saturday Recap

[ Note: Eddie is busy with work this week, so I'll be filling in for some of his posts. This means -- unfortunately for him -- that he won't be able to respond to my comments. That's what he gets for working so much. ]

All-in-all this was a bit of a rocky start to our computer-aided forecasts. But first let's see how each of our systems did.

Week 2
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
RBA	36.2 -  11.8	75.4	36 -  12	75.0
TFG	36.4 -  11.6	75.8	35 -  13	72.9

I went into this week slightly more optimistic than Eddie, and it turned out to be somewhat unjustified. I came up about a game short of where I should have been. I blame Iowa.

Game of the Week

South Carolina Gamecocks 45, Georgia Bulldogs 42

Justin

(20) Georgia 37, (19) South Carolina 33 (63.0%)

All-in-all I can live with getting this one wrong. It was an iffy prediction to start out with, and in the end it required some pretty crazy plays for South Carolina to pull this off.

Eddie

(24) Georgia 28, (19) South Carolina 27 (53.4%)

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game

Auburn Tigers 41, Mississippi State Bulldogs 34

Eddie

(5) Auburn 31, (22) Mississippi St. 21 (59.8%)

Justin

(17) Auburn 38, (32) Mississippi St. 29 (73.5%)

This game required another of Auburn's seemingly-endless supply of miracle plays to pull off, but the Tigers managed to hold on for another win. For those keeping track at home, the 2011-2012 season has started off with two wins by a combined 11 points that weren't actually decided until the last 15-30 seconds of each game. Hope you've got lots of TUMS, Auburn fans.

Shootout of the Week

Virginia Tech Hokies 17, East Carolina Pirates 10

Justin

(9) Virginia Tech 42, (71) East Carolina 31 (83.2%)

What can I say? Correct winner, absolutely incorrect gameplay style.. I know ECU has a history of gumming up good opponents, and Virginia Tech doesn't exactly have a great reputation of starting strong (Boise and JMU say hi, by the way), but I don't think anyone expected this one to be the drawn-out slog of a game that we saw. Tech won, but I don't think this meets anyone's definition of a "shootout."

Eddie

(16) Virginia Tech 45, (81) East Carolina 24 (92.3%)

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Washington State Cougars 59, UNLV Rebels 7

Eddie

(106) UNLV 28, (120) Washington St. 27 (54.9%)

Justin

(100) Washington St. 36, (106) UNLV 31 (67.4%)

Told. You. So. RBA gave a slight nod to UNLV, while TFG gave a more decisive nod to Washington State. We can all see who was right and who could not have possibly been more wrong.

Coin Toss Record: TFG 1, RBA 0.

The season totals after two weeks give Eddie a three-game edge going into the next week. Again, I'm not too concerned since RBA has a history of going into free-fall starting around week eight, but I'd prefer to not have too much ground to catch up in a few weeks.

2011 - 2012 Season
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
RBA	63.8 -  19.2	76.8	65 -  18	78.3
TFG	65.1 -  17.9	78.5	62 -  21	74.7

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Week 2: Saturday Matchups

We didn't get around to making this post last week, but we'll be good to go from here on out. Our featured matchups for Saturday break down into four categories:

• Game of the Week: This is the game to watch, according to our Games U Gotta See (GUGS) system. It takes into account the quality of the teams, the number of projected points scored, and the predicted closeness of the final score to quantify each and every FBS game
• Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object (UFIO) Game: This game highlights an unstoppable offense versus a defense that just won't give an inch.
• Shootout of the Week: Points are the name of the game here. The game with the highest projected combined score takes this title.
• Coin Toss of the Week: This is always a game where Eddie and I disagree on the outcome, but is projected to be agonizingly close. One of us has to be wrong, and the other gets to gloat on Sunday.

So with that we welcome you to the first set of featured matchups for the 2011-2012 college football season!

Game of the Week
South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs
GUGS Score: 63.6
Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
20	Georgia	0.732	0.689	1	27.1	10	18.1	48	156.1	120
19	South Carolina	0.734	0.642	9	26.4	14	17.6	39	159.9	108

Two top offenses and two good-but-not-great defenses meet in Athens today as the (20) Bulldogs host the (19) Gamecocks. This is the same South Carolina team that made it to the SEC finals last year, and still roughly the same Georgia team as last year. Georgia is in the unenviable position of being the team by which (3) Boise State will be measured all year, leading to Georgia fans calling Boise the real deal, other SEC fans slamming Georgia, and other bloggers not blinded by the SEC taking a more moderate tact. South Carolina is a team on the way up, and we'll have to see what happens with Georgia. TFG's best guess is that home field advantage lifts Georgia to a 37-33 victory, but only with 63% confidence.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
24	Georgia	0.809	0.553	12	22.5	14	12.3	27	79.7	114
19	South Carolina	0.852	0.543	26	24.2	8	16.1	62	79.0	119

(24) Georgia lost last week to (3) Boise State in Atlanta, but that doesn't make them a bad team any more than (19) South Carolina's win over (81) East Carolina makes them a good team. Georgia is still as unpredictable as last year with offensive variance of 25.1 PPH and defensive variance of 28.9 PPH, respectively. They're overmatched by the Gamecocks to the tune of 2.2 PPH. However, home field advantage swings the game in favor of the Bulldogs, 29-28 with 53.4% confidence.


Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers
GUGS Score: 59.6
Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
5	Auburn	0.974	0.543	25	24.6	7	16.9	68	79.5	117
22	Mississippi St.	0.839	0.560	4	20.1	22	11.8	20	81.2	104

(5) Auburn looked awful last week, surrendering 38 to (112) Utah State, while (22) Mississippi State dismantled (115) Memphis. Although you'd think think the Bulldogs win this game hands down, RBA has a different opinion. As Justin sarcastically commented in my absence during a work trip, RBA doesn't react as aggressively to bad games as TFG, which I personally think is rational. However, thanks to graduation and summer camp, it is entirely likely that Auburn suddenly forgot how to play football and Mississippi State suddenly figured out how to score 50+ points in a game. RBA says Auburn wins 31-21 with 66.7% confidence, but this one seems like a perfect case where the algorithm needs more time to learn.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
17	Auburn	0.774	0.626	14	29.6	4	18.1	51	165.9	59
32	Mississippi St.	0.680	0.542	51	19.3	62	14.3	16	170.3	32

TFG hasn't been big on (17) Auburn for a while now, given how they managed to skate through last season with a good helping of talent and a huge helping of luck. That luck is disappearing fast, as the Tigers needed lots of help to get past (87) Utah State at home. (32) Mississippi State is a team on the rise, though, and looks to give Auburn a handful. With only one week's worth of data in the computer, Auburn still has the 4th-ranked offense in FBS, while the Bulldogs have the 16th-best defense. In reality the Tiger offense probably isn't as potent as it was last year, and the Bulldog defense is better than TFG realizes. TFG currently has host Auburn taking a reasonably easy win, 38-29, but its 73.% confident is probably too optimistic for this year's Tiger squad.


Shootout of the Week
Virginia Tech Hokies at East Carolina Pirates
GUGS Score: 32.0
Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
71	East Carolina	0.404	0.516	56	21.1	41	24.6	99	179.3	7
9	Virginia Tech	0.853	0.595	26	29.4	6	14.6	19	157.2	117

The good news is that this should be a fun shootout between two east coast schools with a bit of a history. The bad news is that (9) Virginia Tech will be doing most of the scoring, while (71) ECU does their best to keep up. The one hope ECU has is to use their manic pace -- nearly 180 plays per game, good for 7th-fastest in FBS -- to throw off the deliberate and glacial Hokie squad that clocks in at 157 plays per game, the fourth-slowest in FBS. Barring that, though, TFG expects Virginia Tech to pick up an easy win, 42-31, with 83.2% confidence.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
81	East Carolina	0.324	0.480	78	19.8	25	23.7	114	85.0	22
16	Virginia Tech	0.896	0.530	49	23.7	11	10.0	11	79.1	118

Both (13) Virginia Tech and (81) East Carolina looked pretty good offensively last week. Unfortunately, RBA only knows about East Carolina. The Pirates should surrender 28.4 PPH, while Virginia Tech should yield 17.8 PPH against lowly ECU. With neither defense performing particularly well, RBA says Virginia Tech goes on scoring rampage, winning 45-24 with 91.4% confidence.


Coin Toss Game of the Week
UNLV Rebels at Washington State Cougars
GUGS Score: 27.1
Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
120	Washington St.	0.000	0.538	35	10.8	107	21.5	101	86.4	9
106	UNLV	0.103	0.505	66	12.9	95	25.3	117	82.9	77

Today's toss-up is a pillow fight between (120) Washington State and (106) UNLV. They're both horrible. UNLV got blasted by Wisconsin last week. As far as RBA is concerned, the Cougars never played FCS Idaho State last week, so that 64-21 victory is nowhere to be seen. Washington State has the most consistent offense in the country. Unfortunately, it's 10.5 +/- 0.7 PPH. That's not going to help against a UNLV offense that brings 17.4 PPH. The Rebel defense is nothing to write home about at 18.0 PPH, but the Cougars simply doesn't have enough firepower to take advantage of it. RBA says UNLV wins a close one, 28-27 with 56.6% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
100	Washington St.	0.219	0.641	10	15.0	98	24.9	101	165.0	65
106	UNLV	0.190	0.580	34	15.3	97	27.4	111	163.7	75

It appears that Eddie and I disagree about a few things, but this game being uninteresting except for its projected closeness is something we could agree on. Eddie's RBA says UNLV tops the worst team in all of FBS, whereas TFG says that the (100) Cougars should be able to eek out a win against the (106) Rebels. Washington State is playing at home -- crucial in the opening weeks -- and has a slightly better defense than UNLV: it only ranks 19th-worth instead of 9th-worst. This is one of those "somebody has to win" games, and TFG says it's going to be Washington State in a 36-31 plod.


Projected Saturday Results
The table below summarizes just how close we expect to be today. We only disagree on a handful of games, and are both relatively certain we'll go 32-10 with our picks this week. We'll revisit this in about 36 hours and see how accurate we were. Until then, enjoy the games!

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	32.02 -  9.98	76.24%
TFG	31.98 - 10.02	76.14%

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Week 11: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Navy (+8, 46 to 38); Kansas State (+8, 52 to 44); BYU (+8, 67 to 59).

Biggest drops: Texas (-9, 20 to 29); California (-8, 33 to 41); Middle Tennessee State (-8, 86 to 94); UNLV (-8, 105 to 113).