Friday, November 30, 2012

Week 14: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Nov 30 21:28:04 2012

Northern Ill.44Kent St.37Final
UCLA24Stanford27Final

Week 14: Friday Predictions


 66Kent St.31
 27Northern Ill.38
 62Kent St.28
 59Northern Ill.27

  8Stanford38
 46UCLA30
 14Stanford31
 27UCLA21


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Week 14 RBA Projections: SEC,Pac-12,Sun Belt,Western Athletic

Projected conference champions
  • Pac-12: Stanford
  • SEC: Alabama
  • Sun Belt: Arkansas St.
  • Western Athletic: Utah St.
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: SEC,Pac-12,Sun Belt,Western Athletic

Projected conference champions
  • Pac-12: Stanford
  • SEC: Alabama
  • Sun Belt: Arkansas St.
  • Western Athletic: Utah St.
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Week 14: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Nov 29 20:58:04 2012

Louisville20Rutgers17Final

Week 14: Thursday Predictions


 30Rutgers33
 48Louisville32
 20Rutgers28
 52Louisville24


Key
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game
                        Certain
victory
                       


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Week 14 RBA Projections: Big Ten,Big XII,Mid-American,Mountain West

Projected conference champions
  • Big Ten: Ohio St.
  • Big XII: Kansas St.
  • Mid-American: Northern Ill.
  • Mountain West: Boise St.
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: Big Ten,Big XII,Mid-American,Mountain West

Projected conference champions
  • Big Ten: Nebraska
  • Big XII: Kansas St.
  • Mid-American: Northern Ill.
  • Mountain West: Boise St.
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Week 14 RBA Projections: ACC,Big East,Conference-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions
  • ACC: Florida St.
  • Big East: Rutgers
  • Conference-USA: Tulsa
  • Independents: Notre Dame
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: ACC,Big East,Conference-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions
  • ACC: Florida St.
  • Big East: Rutgers
  • Conference-USA: UCF
  • Independents: Notre Dame
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA


Odds as of games through 2012-11-25


Locks

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.924 13 0.530 49 21.5 20 13.0 30 159.8 118

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  92 Miami-OH 10 at  23 Ohio St. 56 193 85.8%
2012/09/08  62 UCF 16 at  20 Ohio St. 31 161 71.7%
2012/09/15  50 California 28 at  20 Ohio St. 35 176 71.4%
2012/09/22 115 UAB 15 at  19 Ohio St. 29 165 93.1%
2012/09/29  21 Ohio St. 17 at  19 Michigan St. 16 156 42.7%
2012/10/06  20 Nebraska 38 at  11 Ohio St. 63 166 51.1%
2012/10/13   9 Ohio St. 52 at  82 Indiana 49 195 89.8%
2012/10/20  63 Purdue 22 at  17 Ohio St. 29 164 78.1%
2012/10/27  12 Ohio St. 35 at  26 Penn State 23 174 48.8%
2012/11/03  90 Illinois 22 at  13 Ohio St. 52 175 84.9%
2012/11/17  14 Ohio St. 21 at  19 Wisconsin 14 169 43.3%
2012/11/24  22 Michigan 21 at  13 Ohio St. 26 142 61.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.992 3 0.567 1 18.7 36 7.2 2 164.4 99

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  75 Navy 10 vs  20 Notre Dame 50 150 77.7%
2012/09/08  73 Purdue 17 at  17 Notre Dame 20 172 79.4%
2012/09/15   6 Notre Dame 20 at  15 Michigan St. 3 165 49.1%
2012/09/22  22 Michigan 6 at  13 Notre Dame 13 133 50.1%
2012/10/06   9 Notre Dame 41 vs  56 Miami-FL 3 154 80.4%
2012/10/13  13 Stanford 13 at   7 Notre Dame 20 165 50.0%
2012/10/20  28 BYU 14 at   6 Notre Dame 17 145 60.6%
2012/10/27   5 Notre Dame 30 at   8 Oklahoma 13 166 47.3%
2012/11/03  41 Pittsburgh 26 at   7 Notre Dame 29 199 86.7%
2012/11/10   3 Notre Dame 21 at  98 Boston College 6 150 93.5%
2012/11/17  91 Wake Forest 0 at   4 Notre Dame 38 152 91.4%
2012/11/24   3 Notre Dame 22 at  17 USC 13 142 52.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2012-11-25

Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2012-11-25

Two teams have finished out their season undefeated and they ... will not face each other for the title. Thanks to Tattoo-gate, the Ohio State Buckeyes are banned from postseason play this year, and won't even get a chance to play for the Big Ten title. In a way this might actually be good for Ohio State, since TFG ranks them just behind 2006 Boise State and 2004 Utah in terms of undefeated regular season teams that didn't or couldn't play for a title. An interesting footnote: the coach of that 2004 Utah squad with the top-notch offense and middling defense? Urban Meyer.

This brings us to Notre Dame. I've seen many stories talking about how the Irish won't stack up to the SEC champion and will be exposed as frauds in the title game. I will say that if Notre Dame plays Alabama, they will be significant underdogs. But if somehow they get matched up with Georgia, that will be much more of a fair fight. Notre Dame has good wins over (8) Stanford, (9) Oklahoma, (16) Michigan, (18) USC, and (20) Michigan State. TFG ranks their SOS at #21, which is pretty even with Alabama (#19) and miles ahead of Georgia (#50).

The clear favorite for the title right now, though, is Alabama. TFG has them as 90% likely to beat Georgia, and currently puts them as 82.1% against Notre Dame. The Crimson Tide have the top-rated offense and the top-rated defense in FBS. The Irish have the second-best defense, but lag behind both Alabama and Georgia in offense; they've been able to move the ball, but have had trouble getting it into the end zone (see: five FGs against USC, including three from inside the 12).

Georgia has the most difficult path, though. They're heavy underdogs to Alabama (only 10% likely to win), and as it stands right now they'd have a 1-in-3 shot against Notre Dame. This adds up to a 3.4% chance of the Bulldogs taking the BCS title. Georgia has the weakest defense of the three contenders, and definitely has the weakest SOS. The only TFG top 25 the Bulldogs have faced this year are (4) Florida and (11) South Carolina. In their win over Florida, the Gators coughed up the ball six times, and the Bulldogs got 10 of their 17 points on drives that started inside the Gator 30 thanks to Florida turnovers. That type of luck won't strike twice, so Georgia will really need to play better defense to slow down Alabama.

In short, here are your current BCS title odds:

WinnerOdds

Alabama73.9%
Notre Dame     22.7%
Georgia3.4%


Locks

Ohio State Buckeyes*
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.762 19 0.530 52 28.8 8 18.1 37 162.1 83

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  80 Miami-OH 10 at  22 Ohio St. 56 193 89.0%
2012/09/08  52 UCF 16 at  15 Ohio St. 31 161 83.7%
2012/09/15  47 California 28 at  13 Ohio St. 35 176 84.0%
2012/09/22 114 UAB 15 at  16 Ohio St. 29 165 97.4%
2012/09/29  19 Ohio St. 17 at  16 Michigan St. 16 156 35.5%
2012/10/06  18 Nebraska 38 at  20 Ohio St. 63 166 58.2%
2012/10/13  14 Ohio St. 52 at  86 Indiana 49 195 83.5%
2012/10/20  68 Purdue 22 at  19 Ohio St. 29 164 84.5%
2012/10/27  19 Ohio St. 35 at  23 Penn State 23 174 41.5%
2012/11/03  98 Illinois 22 at  17 Ohio St. 52 175 90.4%
2012/11/17  19 Ohio St. 21 at  10 Wisconsin 14 169 38.7%
2012/11/24  14 Michigan 21 at  19 Ohio St. 26 142 45.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.887 2 0.606 21 25.7 24 11.3 2 157.6 103

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  59 Navy 10 vs  16 Notre Dame 50 150 74.7%
2012/09/08  71 Purdue 17 at  13 Notre Dame 20 172 90.6%
2012/09/15  16 Notre Dame 20 at   9 Michigan St. 3 165 30.7%
2012/09/22  24 Michigan 6 at  11 Notre Dame 13 133 74.3%
2012/10/06  11 Notre Dame 41 vs  44 Miami-FL 3 154 78.0%
2012/10/13  10 Stanford 13 at   4 Notre Dame 20 165 65.5%
2012/10/20  31 BYU 14 at   4 Notre Dame 17 145 84.8%
2012/10/27   6 Notre Dame 30 at   3 Oklahoma 13 166 32.0%
2012/11/03  36 Pittsburgh 26 at   3 Notre Dame 29 199 83.9%
2012/11/10   4 Notre Dame 21 at  97 Boston College 6 150 93.5%
2012/11/17  94 Wake Forest 0 at   5 Notre Dame 38 152 94.0%
2012/11/24   2 Notre Dame 22 at  18 USC 13 142 71.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2012-11-25

Monday, November 26, 2012

Week 14: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Iowa St. (0.100); Ball St. (0.088); Connecticut (0.084); Miami-FL (0.070); Hawaii (0.060)

Biggest drops: Ohio (-0.162); Louisville (-0.160); Virginia Tech (-0.081); UNLV (-0.071); LA Tech (-0.053)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Top 25 -- RBA


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 1.000 0.549 15 26.5 2 5.5 1 156.2 124
2 -- Oregon 0.992 0.530 50 27.9 1 11.4 20 177.1 3
3 +1 Notre Dame 0.992 0.567 1 18.7 36 7.2 2 164.4 99
4 +1 Florida 0.983 0.559 5 18.1 42 8.9 3 161.2 114
5 -2 LSU 0.975 0.548 16 22.9 10 9.0 4 160.4 116
6 +3 Georgia 0.975 0.544 25 23.5 5 10.9 14 160.0 117
7 +1 Texas A&M 0.967 0.555 8 25.9 3 11.3 19 173.7 10
8 -2 Kansas St. 0.966 0.530 48 25.2 4 14.1 41 165.7 78
9 -2 South Carolina 0.942 0.545 22 23.2 7 9.7 6 158.0 123
10 -- Oklahoma St. 0.942 0.554 9 23.4 6 13.8 38 174.2 8
11 -- Oklahoma 0.924 0.546 20 23.1 9 11.9 24 172.0 14
12 -- Boise St. 0.924 0.465 93 19.2 29 9.7 7 168.0 51
13 +1 Ohio St. 0.924 0.530 49 21.5 20 13.0 30 159.8 118
14 -1 Stanford 0.917 0.543 29 20.5 23 9.8 8 167.2 60
15 +1 Florida St. 0.892 0.547 17 22.5 15 9.5 5 165.7 81
16 +3 Wisconsin 0.882 0.531 47 20.8 22 11.0 16 161.6 112
17 -- USC 0.881 0.535 40 22.7 12 11.5 22 167.0 68
18 -3 Clemson 0.874 0.527 56 23.2 8 13.9 39 168.1 48
19 +1 Nebraska 0.863 0.533 45 18.7 35 11.5 23 167.1 65
20 -2 Rutgers 0.855 0.499 67 14.0 87 10.1 11 164.5 94
21 +2 Oregon St. 0.849 0.547 18 17.7 49 10.7 13 170.9 22
22 -1 Michigan 0.849 0.545 24 22.5 14 11.2 18 166.4 73
23 NA Penn State 0.838 0.539 32 16.6 59 9.8 9 164.5 95
24 -2 Utah St. 0.838 0.494 70 17.5 53 11.5 21 169.0 33
25 -- Michigan St. 0.814 0.545 23 15.4 73 10.0 10 166.9 69
Rankings through games of 2012-11-25


New entries: Penn State.

Dropped out: BYU.

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Week 14: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Pittsburgh (0.047); Mississippi (0.042); Hawaii (0.040); Fresno St. (0.040); Memphis (0.036)

Biggest drops: Utah (-0.047); Auburn (-0.046); Rutgers (-0.045); UNLV (-0.040); Washington (-0.038)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Top 25 -- TFG


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.973 0.612 19 38.3 1 9.1 1 147.8 124
2 -- Notre Dame 0.887 0.606 21 25.7 24 11.3 2 157.6 103
3 -- LSU 0.880 0.669 7 27.1 14 12.2 3 162.5 80
4 +1 Florida 0.874 0.674 5 26.7 18 12.3 4 156.7 109
5 +1 Oregon 0.865 0.548 44 31.8 2 15.1 11 180.5 8
6 +1 Texas A&M 0.857 0.671 6 27.9 12 13.6 6 185.5 4
7 -3 Florida St. 0.846 0.520 57 30.6 4 15.5 16 157.1 105
8 -- Stanford 0.840 0.557 41 26.9 16 13.9 7 161.1 88
9 -- Oklahoma 0.832 0.636 12 26.4 21 13.9 8 176.1 13
10 +1 Boise St. 0.817 0.379 100 27.5 13 15.1 12 157.0 107
11 +2 South Carolina 0.808 0.602 23 28.0 11 15.8 17 157.0 106
12 -2 Wisconsin 0.806 0.553 42 30.1 5 17.1 27 156.0 114
13 -1 Oklahoma St. 0.803 0.633 14 27.1 15 15.4 14 183.1 7
14 +2 Georgia 0.800 0.534 50 28.4 10 16.3 21 161.6 87
15 -- Kansas St. 0.782 0.601 24 31.2 3 18.7 42 154.7 118
16 -2 Michigan 0.781 0.571 34 30.0 6 18.0 35 152.0 123
17 -- Nebraska 0.770 0.616 18 26.1 22 16.1 20 168.0 47
18 -- USC 0.763 0.563 36 29.0 7 18.2 38 162.2 81
19 -- Ohio St. 0.762 0.530 52 28.8 8 18.1 37 162.1 83
20 +3 Michigan St. 0.734 0.603 22 20.1 68 13.4 5 163.1 74
21 -1 Texas 0.733 0.576 33 26.7 19 17.8 33 159.3 96
22 -- BYU 0.726 0.442 73 21.1 58 14.3 10 162.7 79
23 +2 TCU 0.726 0.559 38 23.3 36 15.8 18 163.7 68
24 NA Cincinnati 0.716 0.507 61 22.3 48 15.5 15 166.3 56
25 NA Penn State 0.713 0.535 49 20.1 66 14.0 9 169.9 34
Rankings through games of 2012-11-25

New entries: Cincinnati, Penn State.

Dropped out: Clemson, Oregon St..

Well it appears that will finally happen. As far back as week 8 we were predicting an Alabama/Notre Dame championship game. Of course we expected Alabama to be the undefeated one, with Notre Dame as more likely to lose. Granted, Alabama still has to beat Georgia in the SEC title game. TFG doesn't think too much of Georgia, but a lot of that skepticism comes from early-season games against Florida-Atlantic (gave up 20 points), Tennessee (44 points), and Kentucky (24 points). More recently, though, Georgia has clamped down on defense and only allowed a combined 29 points against Florida, Mississippi, Auburn, and Georgia Tech.

On a side note, while it would be interesting to see an Ohio State/Notre Dame championship game -- there are only two undefeated teams left, after all -- it's probably better for the Buckeyes that they're going to have to sit this one out. Currently TFG places them in the neighborhood of the 2006 Boise State team that went undefeated and beat Alabama in the Fiesta Bowl. In other words: they're good, but nowhere near as good as Notre Dame. A Notre Dame/Ohio State championship game would be about on the same level as a Notre Dame/USC game. Urban Meyer definitely got the offense clicking this year to the tune of 28.8 PPH, but their defense still needs work (18.1 PPH).

Previously we've shown that most BCS champions end up in the top 3 on either offense or defense, and in the top ten on the other side of the ball. Right now the only teams that meets those criteria is Alabama, although Oregon is close (2nd-best offense, 11th-best defense). The Irish have an amazing defense -- second-best in FBS, at 11.3 PPH -- but their offense barely eeks into the top 25 at 25.7 PPH; that's on par with (17) Nebraska.

The most the Irish can hope for right now is that Georgia upsets Alabama in the SEC title game. The Irish have an 18% chance against the Crimson Tide, but a 66% chance against Georgia. So for all those Notre Dame fans and Alabama haters: Go Dawgs.


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Saturday, November 24, 2012

Week 13: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Nov 25 00:28:05 2012

Auburn0Alabama49Final
Texas Tech45Baylor52Final
Air Force15Fresno St.48Final
Stanford35UCLA17Final
UAB24UCF49Final
South Carolina27Clemson17Final
New Mexico20Colorado St.24Final
Miami-FL52Duke45Final
LA-Monroe23FIU17Final
Florida37Florida St.26Final
Georgia Tech10Georgia42Final
UNLV10Hawaii48Final
Tulane17Houston40Final
Connecticut23Louisville20Final
Southern Miss.24Memphis42Final
Troy21Middle Tenn.24Final
Michigan St.26Minnesota10Final
Mississippi St.24Mississippi41Final
Maryland38North Carolina45Final
BYU50New Mexico St.14Final
Boston College10North Carolina St.27Final
Illinois14Northwestern50Final
Michigan21Ohio St.26Final
Oklahoma St.48Oklahoma51Final
Oregon48Oregon St.24Final
Wisconsin21Penn State24Final
Rutgers6Pittsburgh27Final
Indiana35Purdue56Final
LA Tech43SJSU52Final
Notre Dame22USC13Final
Tulsa27SMU35Final
South Alabama30LA-Lafayette52Final
Kentucky17Tennessee37Final
Missouri29Texas A&M59Final
Rice33UTEP24Final
Texas State31UTSA38Final
Idaho9Utah St.45Final
Virginia14Virginia Tech17Final
Vanderbilt55Wake Forest21Final
North Texas24Western Kentucky25Final
SDSU42Wyoming28Final

Week 13: Saturday Predictions


  1Alabama45
 75Auburn22
  1Alabama42
 70Auburn7

 34Baylor41
 48Texas Tech39
 37Baylor41
 50Texas Tech34

 21Clemson36
 13South Carolina38
 15Clemson31
  7South Carolina27

106Colorado St.37
115New Mexico35
102Colorado St.31
109New Mexico24

 86Duke33
 50Miami-FL39
 68Duke28
 55Miami-FL31

 93FIU32
 67LA-Monroe36
100FIU27
 69LA-Monroe31

  4Florida St.33
  5Florida30
 16Florida St.21
  5Florida24

 45Fresno St.38
 68Air Force34
 45Fresno St.38
 71Air Force24

 16Georgia44
 49Georgia Tech37
  9Georgia38
 41Georgia Tech21

118Hawaii35
108UNLV39
117Hawaii29
105UNLV28

 71Houston44
119Tulane31
 81Houston42
120Tulane21

 65LA-Lafayette39
117South Alabama30
 73LA-Lafayette38
116South Alabama17

 46Louisville35
 73Connecticut31
 34Louisville31
 86Connecticut17

116Memphis32
 96Southern Miss.37
112Memphis31
111Southern Miss.28

 91Middle Tenn.34
 81Troy35
 93Middle Tenn.31
 83Troy28

 85Minnesota24
 23Michigan St.34
 80Minnesota20
 25Michigan St.31

 52Mississippi31
 30Mississippi St.34
 48Mississippi27
 31Mississippi St.28

123New Mexico St.21
 22BYU43
124New Mexico St.17
 24BYU45

 38North Carolina39
 92Maryland30
 46North Carolina38
 87Maryland17

 59North Carolina St.33
 95Boston College27
 60North Carolina St.28
 96Boston College17

 40Northwestern37
101Illinois28
 42Northwestern35
 97Illinois17

 19Ohio St.36
 14Michigan38
 14Ohio St.28
 21Michigan21

  9Oklahoma37
 12Oklahoma St.35
 11Oklahoma35
 10Oklahoma St.34

 24Oregon St.34
  6Oregon41
 23Oregon St.27
  2Oregon34

 26Penn State30
 10Wisconsin36
 26Penn State24
 19Wisconsin27

 37Pittsburgh29
 28Rutgers30
 52Pittsburgh24
 18Rutgers25

 76Purdue37
 80Indiana36
 74Purdue34
 82Indiana27

 58SJSU38
 53LA Tech39
 62SJSU28
 33LA Tech31

 72SMU30
 41Tulsa35
 72SMU27
 47Tulsa31

 18USC32
  2Notre Dame35
 17USC24
  4Notre Dame27

 56Tennessee41
107Kentucky32
 58Tennessee35
 85Kentucky21

  7Texas A&M38
 44Missouri28
  8Texas A&M35
 35Missouri17

 33UCF45
110UAB30
 38UCF38
115UAB17

 42UCLA30
  8Stanford38
 27UCLA24
 13Stanford28

 39Utah St.44
120Idaho26
 22Utah St.52
121Idaho14

 98UTEP34
 88Rice36
101UTEP29
 94Rice28

112UTSA36
104Texas State40
110UTSA31
106Texas State28

 35Virginia Tech36
 90Virginia28
 40Virginia Tech31
 89Virginia17

102Wake Forest25
 47Vanderbilt34
 91Wake Forest14
 32Vanderbilt35

 82Western Kentucky34
 97North Texas32
 78Western Kentucky31
103North Texas21

 94Wyoming30
 31SDSU40
 92Wyoming24
 43SDSU31


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.