Week 11: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: California (0.126); Texas Tech (0.093); BYU (0.079); Virginia (0.052); Arkansas (0.050)

Biggest drops: Duke (-0.110); Oregon St. (-0.068); Minnesota (-0.060); Tulsa (-0.052); Kansas (-0.049)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 10: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: Fresno St. (0.092); Akron (0.071); Mississippi St. (0.067); Iowa St. (0.064); Tulsa (0.051)

Biggest drops: Coastal Carolina (-0.290); Houston (-0.074); Western Michigan (-0.060); Tulane (-0.055); Colorado (-0.055)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 9: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Fresno St. (0.180); California (0.122); Syracuse (0.115); Marshall (0.108); Tulsa (0.104)

Biggest drops: New Mexico (-0.128); Houston (-0.124); Washington St. (-0.105); Oregon (-0.097); Colorado (-0.094)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 9: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: Coastal Carolina (0.395); UAB (0.141); Buffalo (0.115); Tulane (0.097); Texas Tech (0.067)

Biggest drops: Tennessee (-0.083); Arkansas (-0.070); Duke (-0.062); Tulsa (-0.058); Minnesota (-0.055)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 8: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Coastal Carolina (0.238); Army (0.145); Tulane (0.142); Iowa St. (0.132); Akron (0.107)

Biggest drops: Maryland (-0.099); Tulsa (-0.093); California (-0.090); Western Kentucky (-0.088); North Carolina (-0.084)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 4: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: SDSU (0.100); Stanford (0.065); New Mexico St. (0.062); Idaho (0.062); Georgia (0.061)

Biggest drops: Oregon St. (-0.160); UAB (-0.089); Middle Tenn. (-0.086); North Carolina (-0.078); Tulsa (-0.070)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 11: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: Buffalo (0.069); East Carolina (0.064); Tulsa (0.060); Appalachian St. (0.056); Ohio (0.050)

Biggest drops: Memphis (-0.059); Connecticut (-0.052); Georgia Southern (-0.046); Missouri (-0.044); North Carolina St. (-0.041)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 10: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: East Carolina (0.122); Tulsa (0.084); Michigan St. (0.074); Army (0.070); Western Kentucky (0.070)

Biggest drops: Connecticut (-0.118); Memphis (-0.097); West Virginia (-0.072); Missouri (-0.069); Arizona (-0.066)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 4: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Texas (0.226); USC (0.128); Boston College (0.123); Troy (0.122); Maryland (0.117)

Biggest drops: Utah St. (-0.269); Iowa St. (-0.180); Middle Tenn. (-0.164); Akron (-0.142); Tulsa (-0.134)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 3: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Tulsa (0.169); South Alabama (0.107); Wyoming (0.095); Texas State (0.086); Michigan (0.067)

Biggest drops: Bowling Green (-0.197); USC (-0.157); SJSU (-0.146); Ohio (-0.117); Mississippi St. (-0.112)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 13: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Washington (0.067); Ohio St. (0.052); East Carolina (0.044); Virginia Tech (0.036); Akron (0.033)

Biggest drops: Ohio (-0.064); Wyoming (-0.058); Florida (-0.045); Tulsa (-0.043); Penn State (-0.037)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 11: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Navy (0.070); FL-Atlantic (0.064); Boston College (0.062); Marshall (0.057); UTSA (0.052)

Biggest drops: Iowa St. (-0.078); Tulsa (-0.068); Michigan (-0.061); Purdue (-0.060); Oregon St. (-0.056)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 3: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Bowling Green (0.206); Miami-FL (0.156); Minnesota (0.081); Oklahoma (0.067); Wyoming (0.063)

Biggest drops: FL-Atlantic (-0.121); Ohio (-0.114); Tulsa (-0.104); Nebraska (-0.103); FIU (-0.083)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 2: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Miami-FL (0.318); Washington (0.218); Maryland (0.211); Bowling Green (0.210); Virginia (0.195)

Biggest drops: Tulsa (-0.191); Boise St. (-0.182); LA-Monroe (-0.174); LA Tech (-0.165); FIU (-0.151)

Full rankings after the jump.

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part V

Today is Part V of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• New Era Pinstripe Bowl
  Syracuse Orange vs West Virginia Mountaineers
• AutoZone Liberty Bowl
  Iowa State Cyclones vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane
• Russell Athletic Bowl
  Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Virginia Tech Hokies
• BBVA Compass Bowl
  Mississippi Rebels vs Pittsburgh Panthers
• Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
  Baylor Bears vs UCLA Bruins

Full previews after the jump ....

Week 14: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week

Wisconsin Badgers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers

GUGS Score: 75.3

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
17	Nebraska	0.770	0.616	18	26.1	22	16.1	20	168.0	47
12	Wisconsin	0.806	0.553	42	30.1	5	17.1	27	156.0	114

Where's the SEC title game? GUGS shades towards close games, and TFG thinks the Dawgs are going to get blown out (no offense, Georgia fans). This, however, should be closer. The last time they played this year it was at Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers eeked out a 3-point victory; that kind of loss seems to be Wisconsin's MO this year, with four losses by exactly a field goal (their other loss was to Ohio State by a touchdown). Wisconsin's lost a lot of offense from last year, but has still been (opponent-and-pace-adjusted) very efficient. Nebraska hasn't been a slouch, either, and with both defenses in the "good" but not "outstanding" category, this looks to be a close, relatively high-scoring affair between two top-20 teams. The Badgers will try and slow things down, while the Huskers will pick up the pace a bit. It'll be a good game with no clear favorite, but since Nebraska doesn't have home field advantage this time, look for the Badgers to eek out a close win in the end. The predicted margin is, fittingly, a field goal. Wisconsin 37, Nebraska 34 (55.5%); 161 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
19	Nebraska	0.863	0.533	45	18.7	35	11.5	23	167.1	65
16	Wisconsin	0.882	0.531	47	20.8	22	11.0	16	161.6	112

What?  No Alabama-Georgia?  If you must know, it's because RBA doesn't think that game is going to be very competitive (31-17, Alabama).  On the other hand, Nebraska-Wisconsin should be a pretty good game, even if not matching two teams in the BCS top three.  The formerly unstoppable Badger offense has proven itself inconsistent in 2012, notching a 32.6 +/- 23.6 PPH performance.  Their defense isn't Alabama or Notre Dame, but a 4.8 +/- 12.4 PPH very respectable.  The Huskers sport a similarly effective defense at 3.6 +/- 16.0 PPH.  The key in this game is the Nebraska offensive consistency.  They haven't always been flashy, but the Cornhuskers 21.9 +/- 6.3 PPH demonstrates a predictability that RBA likes.  RBA says that Nebraska wins the Big Ten, 28-24, with 58.8% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

UCF Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

GUGS Score: 58.5

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
50	Tulsa	0.609	0.466	92	16.1	66	14.1	43	171.9	16
36	UCF	0.713	0.461	97	18.4	38	14.1	40	163.5	104

For what it's worth, history is on my side.  Tulsa beat UCF three weeks ago, 23-21.  UCF's offense simply isn't consistent.  A 30.7 +/- 24.6 PPH performance will only look good because Tulsa isn't very good on defense at 11.2 +/- 5.8 PPH.  The only reason why Tulsa will win this game is because UCF's 10.0 +/- 8.3 PPH defense is even worse.  It will be ugly, but expect a 27-24 Tulsa victory with 54.4% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
44	Tulsa	0.598	0.421	81	20.0	70	17.1	28	178.3	10
33	UCF	0.636	0.354	114	24.9	27	19.9	50	156.9	108

I'm not sure a two-point victory at home is really having history on your side, but whatever. This game is a tale of two teams with opposing strengths and weaknesses: Tulsa has no offense, but a relatively solid D, while UCF has a good offense, but a middling defense. These teams are also on opposite ends of the tempo spectrum; Tulsa will want to go-go-go, while UCF is a more patient team. This will be close, but TFG thinks the Knights will get revenge for their loss a few weeks ago. UCF 35, Tulsa 33 (54.0%); 167 plays.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	10.68 -  4.32	71.17%
TFG	10.65 -  4.35	71.03%

Week 13: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Arizona (0.085); Baylor (0.085); Ball St. (0.084); Tulsa (0.066); Oregon St. (0.062)

Biggest drops: Ohio (-0.135); Army (-0.110); Texas Tech (-0.069); Houston (-0.060); Toledo (-0.058)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 12: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: LA-Lafayette (0.107); Georgia Tech (0.101); Washington (0.084); Tulsa (0.081); UCLA (0.067)

Biggest drops: Houston (-0.121); Pittsburgh (-0.076); Air Force (-0.075); Marshall (-0.060); Western Kentucky (-0.051)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 12: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Texas State (0.058); SJSU (0.056); Washington (0.055); Tulsa (0.052); Syracuse (0.050)

Biggest drops: Auburn (-0.072); Wake Forest (-0.059); Utah (-0.055); Louisville (-0.046); Western Kentucky (-0.044)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 11: Saturday Matchups

Note: I've been absolutely atrocious about finding time to write these. It hasn't been fair to our reads or to Eddie, and it's going to stop now. Partially because I'm embarrassed that I haven't found time to keep up with my own blog, and partially because I've missed weeks and weeks of gloating about how I'm stomping Eddie in our Coin Toss series this year.
--Justin

Game of the Week

Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs

GUGS Score: 64.9

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
21	TCU	0.738	0.510	57	25.5	24	16.9	21	164.5	63
11	Kansas St.	0.816	0.599	27	35.3	2	19.4	47	153.9	118

Kansas State is one of those teams that does well, but for the life of it just can't seem to impress my computer. They've only had two games all year decided by fewer than two touchdowns, yet they've yet to crack the top 10 (to be fair, though, Boise State should fall enough to gift them a top-10 spot any week now). The main problem is that TFG still sees garbage time touchdowns as points allowed by a team, and the Wildcats seem to hand over at least one of those each game. Clamp down on those, and TFG would easily put the Wildcats in the top five. The good news is that they've got an opportunity to do just that against a team TFG still respects, even though the Horned Frogs are 2-3 since the start of October. TFG thinks this will be a relatively high-scoring affair between two top-25 teams, which has all the ingredients for a good Game of the Week. In the end, though, Kansas State's high-powered offense is just going to be too much for TCU's defense. With luck the Wildcats can clamp down on defense and start to show that they're deserving of being a real national title contender. Kansas St. 40, TCU 36 (57.1%); 159 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
33	TCU	0.761	0.464	94	19.9	25	14.5	46	168.1	45
4	Kansas St.	0.975	0.531	48	26.9	2	13.6	36	165.7	79

The ironic part of Justin's return is that I'm throwing this together at the last minute because I just got back from Las Vegas.  If there was any question, I rendered unto Caesar's Palace that which is Caesar's.  -- Eddie

RBA respects the Wildcats enough to rank them in the top five.  However, I'm a little worried about this pick.  Maybe you've heard, but Collin Klein may not play against TCU.  RBA assumes that he'll play, so the rest of this post will assume the same.  With Klein, Kansas State has a top five offense.  RBA still thinks they're inconsistent, but they're getting better, improving from 35.5 +/- 19.8 PPH to 34.6 +/- 15.4 PPH over the last three weeks.  Contrary to the accolades they're getting from the people on ESPN, the Wildcat defense (9.2 +/- 8.9 PPH) isn't that great, and they have hardly budged in the same time frame.  That said, they should do very well against the Horned Frogs.  TCU has a middle of the pack offense (24.7 +/- 9.5 PPH) and a Baylor-esque defense (0.9 +/- 27.2 PPH).  If Klein doesn't play, it could be dicey, but with Klein, this one is a solid K-State win, 38-31, with 69.2% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Houston Cougars

GUGS Score: 48.0

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
62	Houston	0.514	0.469	85	18.0	41	18.4	83	176.8	3
66	Tulsa	0.474	0.466	91	15.9	65	15.6	55	171.6	16

I humbly accept the smack talk from Justin because, quite frankly, the results haven't been pretty in this space.  The Cougars are sinking without quarterback Case Keenum and coach Kevin Sumlin.  The departures have impacted the offense, dropping from 21.1 +/- 0.1 PPH in 2011 to 22.9 +/- 9.8 PPH.  Their defense has failed them, as well, dropping from 15.2 +/- 1.7 PPH to 15.3 +/- 6.1 PPH.  Combined, this implies that Houston is losing roughly a touchdown per hundred plays against average competition in 2012.  In contrast, Tulsa has remained consistently mediocre all year.  Their offense exhibits an inconsistent 27.7 +/- 21.2 PPH, while their defense is even less consistent at 4.9 +/- 23.5 PPH.  There's a non-zero probability that Houston is still on its way down, but based on the current data, Tulsa's defense is bad enough that the Cougars should keep pace.  Home field advantage swings the game for Houston, 31-28, with 55.6% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
64	Houston	0.482	0.352	113	20.6	61	21.2	62	187.5	2
52	Tulsa	0.548	0.381	100	20.4	65	18.9	42	176.1	12

Even after losing Case Keenum to graduation last year, Houston decided not to slow things down to make it easier on Keenum's replacement. This ... has not gone well. The Cougars have gone from a 28.2 PPH offensive efficiency last year to a mere 20.6 PPH this year. Their defense has also slipped by about three PPH, meaning the Cougars have gone from nipping at the heels of the top 20 to nipping at the heels of the top half of FBS. The Golden Hurricane have experienced a similar but not as drastic swan dive this year, losing 2.8 PPH on offense and 1.2 PPH on defense. Whatever their shortcomings on the field, both teams have decided that this will be another year of GO GO GO. In this end look for a moderately high-scoring game in which the home team eeks out a slight victory. Tulsa 37, Houston 36 (52.4%); 181 plays.

2012 Coin Toss Record: RBA 3, TFG 7.

(P.S. Dear Eddie: Neener neener. So there. --Justin)

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	37.09 - 13.91	72.74%
TFG	36.82 - 14.18	72.20%