Thursday, July 21, 2016

Formula One: Elo Ratings, Post-British Grand Prix

It's been a few weeks since we updated the ratings, mostly due to a combination of summer vacation and some issues with our data provider. We're back online, though, just in time for the Hungarian Grand Prix.

Silverstone was a picture of British order, sandwiched by two bits of disorder: the rain-soaked start behind the safety car, and the radio-order-influenced battle between Rosberg and Verstappen. The teenager has put together a string of impressive results since being promoted to the Red Bull senior team. It's helped that -- unlike some of his rivals -- he hasn't been hampered by reliability (Hamilton) or bad luck (Vettel).

Let's take a look at the updated rankings.

Rank+/-Driver TeamRating+/-
1 -- RosbergMercedes 1656 -18
2 +1 HamiltonMercedes 1639 +173
3 +4 VerstappenRed Bull 1455 +153
4 -- RaikkonenFerrari 1442 +11
5 -- RicciardoRed Bull 1439 +17
6 -4 VettelFerrari 1432 -120
7 +1 BottasWilliams 1148 -135
8 +2 HulkenbergForce India 1135 +6
9 +3 Sainz Jr.Toro Rosso 1125 +81
10 -4 PerezForce India 1122 -218
11 +3 ButtonMcLaren 993 +86
12 +3 GrosjeanHaas 987 +92
13 -4 MassaWilliams 984 -153
14 -3 KvyatToro Rosso 958 -137
15 -2 AlonsoMcLaren 942 -101
16 -- GutierrezHaas 854 +50
17 -- MagnussenRenault 706 +6
18 +3 WehrleinManor 692 +129
19 -- PalmerRenault 690 +66
20 -2 NasrSauber 627 -48
21 -1 EricssonSauber 607 -5
22 -- HaryantoManor 523 +60

After a strong weekend, Hamilton and Verstappen have climbed their way into the top three. Vettel may have dropped 120 points over the course of the Silverstone weekend, but has only dropped 30 points since our last check-in after Monaco. The German driver had previously been the main beneficiary of the woes at Mercedes, but bad luck -- a tire explosion in Austria and a failed gearbox in Britain -- and the emergence of Verstappen have bumped him down in the standings.

On the flip side, Perez saw a string of overperforming results come to an end, while Williams seems to be struggling with aerodynamics issues that come to the fore in high-aero tracks (Monaco) and in the rain (Britain). For now Williams is holding on to fourth place in the constructors standings, but is under significant pressure from Force India.

Further down the standings we see Pascal Wehrlein making serious progress in the Manor. When both Manors have finished a race (which has happened in six of the 10 races so far) he's yet to be beat by his teammate. He's also finished ahead of at least one Sauber driver in four of the six races where he and both Saubers finished, and ahead of at least one Renault driver in two of the four races where he and both Renaults finished.

Let's check in on our team ratings for the first time since the Grand Prix of Monaco.

RankTeamAvg. Rating
2Red Bull1447
4Force India1129
6Toro Rosso1042

Hamilton's resurgence has allowed Mercedes to take back the clear number one spot, while Red Bull and Ferrari are effectively tied for second. Force India takes fourth by virtue of having two relatively equal drivers, while Williams and Toro Rosso are struggling with one consistent driver (Bottas and Sainz) and one inconsistent driver (Massa and Kvyat).

Haas has gained some ground on McLaren over the last few weeks, as Grosjean has put together a reasonable string of qualifying and race results. And basement-dwelling Manor appears to be ready to overhaul Sauber, if only Rio Haryanto could stop finishing last.

Check back in after the Hungarian Grand Prix for updated standings.