Friday, September 30, 2011

Week 5: Friday Predictions


Only one game tonight, and that's not expected to be too much of a contest. BYU is playing their second consecutive Friday game and hoping for their second consecutive Friday win.

Home Visitors Home Visitors
 52BYU38  94Utah St.27  59BYU41 104Utah St.20

Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


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Thursday, September 29, 2011

Week 5: Thursday Predictions


Two games tonight, again nothing too exciting. Pitts/USF should be somewhat exciting, but Houston/UTEP will probably be of regional interest only.

Home Visitors Home Visitors
 33Pittsburgh31  34South Florida28  34Pittsburgh24  33South Florida21
 96UTEP35  63Houston38 100UTEP27  66Houston41

Key
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game
                        Certain
victory
                       


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Week 5: Pick-em Update

Congratulations to LucklessWonder, a new entrant from last week, who spotted most other players a week's worth of points and is now on a charge to catch up.

Rank Player W - L Pts
1 nobiology 16-4 94
2 Foreigner 16-4 90
3 ed315 13-7 88
4 georgehr 15-5 87
5 TFG 14-6 84
6 RBA 14-6 82
7 tommyallenn 13-7 79
8 LucklessWonder 7-13 47
9 eadams928 6-14 40
10 rockhopper 6-14 33
11 Deadpool 6-14 31
12 theleftybarber 3-17 12

Neither algorithm is going to dominate in any given week, but consistency is the name of the game. We're fine always being third and fourth in a given week if it means that different people rotate around as first as second. In the end we'll simply pull ahead.

We've also re-run the numbers after two weeks' worth of play and have tweaked the original point projections. Here they are:

TFG (Justin): 664 (+9)
RBA (Eddie): 662 (-3)

And in graph form:


Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Week 4: Saturday Recap

[ Note: Justin is on the road this week and won't have much to say about his games. ]

Week 4 is in the books, so let's look at the recap of our games of the week.


Week 4
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
TFG  34.6 -  12.4 73.6  34 -  13 72.3
RBA  33.8 -  13.2 71.9  34 -  13 72.3

Game of the Week
LSU Tigers 47, West Virginia Mountaineers 21

Justin
(5) LSU 33, (21) West Virginia 29 (64.2%)

The final score was actually less close than the actual game, which saw four West Virginia turnovers that yielded 21 points for LSU. If the Mountaineers hold onto the ball a bit better, then the game becomes much more interesting. As it was, LSU completely dominated and will look to rise in the rankings this week.

Eddie
(17) West Virginia 25, (8) LSU 24 (64.7%)

I didn't get to watch this game because my cable went out (more later), but all reviews are that LSU laid a real butt whoopin' on the Mountaineers. As predicted, the Tiger offense sputtered to 366 yards of total offense, which would rate them 83rd in the country on average. However, West Virginia provided four turnovers to the Tigers, and Tiger punter Brad Wing delivered with six kicks inside the WVU 15. All things considered, RBA predicted much of what happened. It just didn't account for how generous the Mountaineer offense and special teams would be.


Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game
Alabama Crimson Tide 38, Arkansas Razorbacks 14

Eddie
(2) Alabama 34, (13) Arkansas 21 (74.7%)

I told my wife, "Good news: The cable went out. Bad news: I'm happy about it." Alabama scored 21 points on special teams and defense. The Razorback defense held Trent Richardson and company to only 17 points, which is actually pretty good given that they were missing starting DEs Jake Bequette (hamstring) and Tenarius Wright (broken arm). The Hogs simply couldn't run the ball with Ronnie Wingo and take some pressure off Tyler Wilson. If Arkansas can slow down Alabama's running game, LSU should be able to do it. The question is if LSU can score on Alabama, either. We'll find out on November 5.

Justin
(1) Alabama 37, (12) Arkansas 29 (86.0%)

Apparently I over-estimated Arkansas' ability to score against Alabama. The Crimson Tide are scary good, and have a legitimate shot to displace LSU as SEC favorites and possibly even national championship favorites. The Razorbacks aren't bad by any stretch of the imagination, it was just that they ran into an absolute brick wall.


Shootout of the Week
Boise State Broncos 41, Tulsa Golden Hurricane 21

Justin
(2) Boise St. 43, (52) Tulsa 26 (93.2%)

Off by 2 (Boise) and 5 (Tulsa). I can live with this prediction. In the meantime I'll see about finding more interesting matchups in the coming weeks.

Eddie
(4) Boise St. 49, (59) Tulsa 17 (89.8%)

Poor, poor Tulsa. They scored 14 in the 4th quarter to make it respectable, but Boise State opened a can of whoop ass on them. The Broncos pulled Kellen Moore in the 3rd quarter and still hung 41 on the Golden Hurricane. They scored 34 before the Golden Hurricane sniffed the end zone. This game was every bit the shootout we expected it to be. I attribute the score difference to Boise State pulling their starters so early.


Coin Toss Game of the Week
North Texas Mean Green 24, Indiana Hoosiers 21

Eddie
(108) North Texas 31, (96) Indiana 28 (59.7%)

I'm not even going to pretend that I knew how this game was going to turn out. I sent a text message to Justin bragging that the Mean Green were leading 21-0 at the half and that I was well on my way to victory. Then, the Hoosiers went on a 21 point run in the 4th quarter. Needless to say, I'm happy to finally win a toss-up. Even with all the mess, RBA managed to get the exact margin of victory -- three points in favor of North Texas, 24-21.

Justin
(98) Indiana 36, (108) North Texas 35 (57.5%)

Chalk one up for RBA. Fortunately we split the other games on which our systems disagreed, 2-1 in my favor, so I didn't lose any more ground for the season tally. Plus I'm still up one in the coin toss games. On to next week!

Coin Toss Record: TFG 2, RBA 1.



2011 - 2012 Season
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
RBA 134.1 -  44.9 74.9 135 -  44 75.4
TFG 136.1 -  42.9 76.0 132 -  47 73.7

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Week 5: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Temple (0.126); Michigan (0.107); Cincinnati (0.074); Michigan St. (0.062); SMU (0.059)

Biggest drops: Maryland (-0.115); North Carolina St. (-0.099); Western Michigan (-0.080); Army (-0.071); Central Michigan (-0.069)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 5: Top 25 -- TFG


The Tempo-Free Giridon is on the road this week, so the top 25 will be presented in abbreviated form. We'll be back up to speed later in the week.

Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.952 0.580 25 31.0 1 9.4 1 157.0 116
2 -- Boise St. 0.908 0.472 77 29.6 5 11.8 4 164.4 76
3 +3 Florida 0.906 0.521 48 27.8 9 11.3 2 163.1 83
4 -1 Stanford 0.902 0.501 59 30.7 2 12.6 6 160.3 101
5 -- LSU 0.893 0.682 2 29.7 4 12.7 8 160.5 99
6 -2 Oklahoma 0.886 0.662 6 25.8 15 11.3 3 180.7 3
7 +2 Wisconsin 0.868 0.480 72 29.9 3 14.1 14 159.1 107
8 -1 Ohio St. 0.857 0.472 78 24.9 19 12.2 5 157.9 112
9 +1 TCU 0.857 0.429 90 29.3 6 14.3 15 162.8 89
10 -2 Oregon 0.850 0.636 11 27.7 10 13.9 13 185.6 1
11 -- Virginia Tech 0.841 0.478 73 24.7 20 12.7 7 156.9 117
12 +2 Texas A&M 0.791 0.594 21 22.6 30 13.3 10 176.2 12
13 -1 Arkansas 0.781 0.611 17 27.8 8 16.7 34 166.7 53
14 -1 Florida St. 0.775 0.634 12 25.8 16 15.7 25 158.6 108
15 +2 Oklahoma St. 0.774 0.562 31 25.5 18 15.5 24 183.1 2
16 -- Utah 0.774 0.510 50 24.0 22 14.6 17 165.6 65
17 +1 Nebraska 0.771 0.495 63 24.4 21 15.0 22 165.6 67
18 NA South Carolina 0.754 0.623 13 27.1 11 17.3 40 158.4 109
19 NA Notre Dame 0.751 0.655 8 21.1 48 13.5 11 170.9 29
20 +4 Missouri 0.748 0.618 15 21.3 43 13.8 12 172.7 20
21 -1 Georgia 0.745 0.676 3 27.1 12 17.7 42 160.4 100
22 -- Texas 0.739 0.497 62 22.7 29 14.9 20 162.9 88
23 NA Clemson 0.737 0.615 16 21.7 39 14.4 16 166.4 56
24 NA Penn State 0.735 0.593 22 19.7 53 13.1 9 165.3 68
25 NA Michigan St. 0.733 0.502 57 24.0 23 16.1 31 160.3 102

New entries: South Carolina, Notre Dame, Clemson, Penn State, Michigan St..

Dropped out: Miami-FL, Auburn, West Virginia, USC, Iowa.

Lots of churn throughout the polls this week, despite Eddie's claim that TFG's rankings are pretty static. Seven of the top 10 teams shifted around, even though their relative expected winning percentages didn't change much.  Florida's absolute demolition of Kentucky keeps them in the top 5 this week, even as the Gators have yet to crack the top 10 in the human polls.

The true story here, though, is Alabama's utter dominance at the top of the polls. The Crimson Tide boast both the top offense and the top defense in the nation, but the 5th-slowest pace. Simply put, Alabama is scary right now. The are clear favorites in their remaining games and present a realistic chance to win the national championship in a little over three months.

In what many readers might point out as an oddity, Texas A&M remains ranked above Oklahoma State, even though the Cowboys defeated the Aggies. However, the game was extremely close and it wasn't truly over until the last minute. We're getting into the meat of the conference season now, and the quality of competition should really pick up. Can Florida hang with the other powers? Will anyone notice Boise? Can Alabama displace LSU in the minds of the voters? Only ten weeks until we have our answers.

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Tuesday Trivia and the TSA

Just a quick note to regular readers that I'm on the road this week and didn't have a chance to draft a Tuesday Trivia post. We don't want everyone to feel left out, so we'd like to take this moment to point everyone to some sites that pique our interest, including

Football Study Hall
Football Outsiders -- College
Statistically Speaking

And of course the site that really inspired the Tempo-Free Gridiron in the first place, we have to go back to Ken Pomeroy's site and blog.

Happy browsing, TFG fans. We'll be back up to speed later in the week.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Week 5: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Temple (0.253); Cincinnati (0.126); Michigan (0.104); Rutgers (0.097); Clemson (0.089)

Biggest drops: North Carolina St. (-0.396); Mississippi (-0.150); Oregon St. (-0.140); Miami-FL (-0.130); Army (-0.123)

Full rankings after the jump.

Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Stanford 1.000 0.544 24 26.9 2 8.7 4 167.4 48
2 -- Alabama 1.000 0.549 17 24.0 7 6.1 1 157.6 120
3 +4 Oregon 0.983 0.533 42 28.4 1 10.7 13 176.0 3
4 -1 Wisconsin 0.983 0.537 36 26.7 3 10.4 11 162.1 106
5 -1 Boise St. 0.983 0.458 97 25.6 4 9.6 7 169.2 29
6 -- TCU 0.966 0.463 92 24.5 5 12.2 26 168.2 41
7 +1 LSU 0.966 0.550 15 21.9 12 8.2 3 161.0 110
8 -3 Oklahoma 0.949 0.545 22 23.5 8 9.4 5 170.7 19
9 +2 Florida 0.932 0.551 12 23.0 10 7.9 2 161.8 107
10 -1 Oklahoma St. 0.932 0.551 13 24.5 6 13.9 44 172.5 10
11 -1 Virginia Tech 0.916 0.526 54 18.9 35 10.2 9 158.2 118
12 -- Florida St. 0.906 0.556 8 19.3 32 9.9 8 166.2 67
13 +2 Nebraska 0.904 0.530 47 21.5 15 12.8 30 167.0 59
14 -- Ohio St. 0.902 0.531 46 19.8 26 10.4 10 159.4 114
15 +4 Texas A&M 0.895 0.554 10 19.8 25 10.9 15 171.1 16
16 +11 Clemson 0.891 0.524 57 18.2 42 11.5 19 166.4 64
17 -1 Auburn 0.890 0.543 26 21.7 13 15.8 56 159.3 115
18 -- Iowa 0.870 0.525 56 19.6 28 13.2 36 164.2 90
19 -6 Arkansas 0.867 0.569 1 22.6 11 13.0 33 165.3 81
20 +9 Arizona St. 0.867 0.526 55 19.7 27 10.8 14 173.8 6
21 -- South Carolina 0.852 0.543 27 21.3 17 13.0 32 157.8 119
22 +1 Georgia 0.842 0.555 9 20.5 21 12.5 28 159.5 113
23 +8 Notre Dame 0.838 0.565 3 17.3 50 12.1 25 164.9 84
24 +2 Illinois 0.833 0.539 32 17.0 51 13.1 35 169.8 22
25 +5 Texas 0.807 0.521 60 18.8 36 11.8 23 168.0 44
26 -9 West Virginia 0.804 0.540 31 18.4 40 12.1 24 165.7 76
27 +1 Tennessee 0.802 0.543 25 21.5 14 13.9 43 160.9 111
28 -3 Mississippi St. 0.798 0.562 4 18.3 41 12.4 27 162.7 103
29 -5 USC 0.794 0.534 41 17.9 43 13.2 37 166.8 62
30 +3 Missouri 0.785 0.531 45 15.8 63 10.6 12 174.0 5
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
31 +4 Utah 0.777 0.468 88 21.3 18 11.1 17 166.0 71
32 +28 Temple 0.762 0.498 70 16.4 56 9.6 6 162.3 105
33 +5 South Florida 0.743 0.527 53 16.9 53 11.8 22 168.8 33
34 -- Pittsburgh 0.736 0.528 52 16.1 58 11.8 21 164.4 87
35 +2 Arizona 0.721 0.561 6 17.6 46 11.6 20 167.2 53
36 -4 UCF 0.716 0.462 93 15.1 78 11.2 18 164.0 93
37 +2 Penn State 0.710 0.544 23 15.2 73 11.0 16 163.4 96
38 +4 Georgia Tech 0.707 0.530 49 23.3 9 16.3 60 163.9 94
39 +11 Michigan 0.705 0.542 28 20.6 20 14.1 47 168.5 39
40 -18 Miami-FL 0.705 0.558 7 15.5 67 14.9 50 162.9 101
41 -1 Air Force 0.690 0.476 83 17.5 47 13.9 42 164.3 88
42 +7 Kansas St. 0.664 0.532 43 20.3 22 14.9 49 166.0 72
43 -2 Navy 0.661 0.437 113 18.7 38 15.0 51 159.1 117
44 +2 Texas Tech 0.652 0.528 51 20.2 23 15.4 52 178.9 1
45 -1 Michigan St. 0.645 0.541 29 19.3 30 12.9 31 167.5 47
46 -3 North Carolina 0.639 0.545 21 16.6 55 14.0 45 163.6 95
47 -11 Maryland 0.636 0.522 59 16.2 57 16.3 59 164.2 92
48 -- Baylor 0.628 0.568 2 21.4 16 17.5 75 171.6 12
49 +4 FIU 0.607 0.447 104 15.4 68 14.2 48 165.3 82
50 +13 Cincinnati 0.600 0.517 62 21.1 19 15.9 57 168.6 36
51 +1 Washington 0.596 0.550 14 20.1 24 16.4 61 168.4 40
52 -1 Kentucky 0.570 0.547 19 15.0 79 13.4 38 165.8 75
53 -8 California 0.557 0.536 37 17.5 48 15.8 54 167.9 45
54 +1 Louisville 0.550 0.493 72 15.2 76 13.0 34 166.9 61
55 +1 Washington St. 0.545 0.535 39 19.0 34 17.2 70 172.7 9
56 +3 Tulsa 0.540 0.469 87 19.2 33 17.0 69 170.6 20
57 +8 Vanderbilt 0.535 0.554 11 13.7 90 12.5 29 161.6 109
58 -11 SDSU 0.532 0.496 71 15.9 62 15.8 55 168.9 32
59 -5 BYU 0.526 0.484 76 15.7 65 13.4 40 169.5 25
60 -2 Southern Miss. 0.509 0.486 75 17.5 49 17.0 68 168.5 38
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
61 -4 Nevada 0.496 0.468 89 19.3 31 18.1 80 170.3 21
62 -1 Hawaii 0.496 0.471 85 19.6 29 20.1 95 171.2 15
63 -1 Connecticut 0.478 0.469 86 13.3 94 13.4 39 166.1 68
64 -44 North Carolina St. 0.472 0.529 50 15.9 61 17.9 78 167.0 57
65 -1 Northern Ill. 0.466 0.445 107 17.6 45 20.0 94 163.4 97
66 +1 Houston 0.461 0.476 82 18.6 39 19.5 90 175.1 4
67 +5 Northwestern 0.416 0.514 63 13.4 92 15.5 53 177.2 2
68 +10 Fresno St. 0.414 0.491 74 18.7 37 20.2 96 165.9 73
69 -1 Iowa St. 0.413 0.540 30 13.8 89 14.1 46 168.5 37
70 +14 Rutgers 0.402 0.512 65 15.6 66 16.7 65 165.0 83
71 -- Toledo 0.402 0.446 105 16.1 59 18.4 82 168.1 43
72 +3 Ohio 0.398 0.434 115 15.3 71 19.2 87 161.8 108
73 +1 Colorado 0.393 0.561 5 15.4 69 17.7 76 168.7 35
74 -4 Syracuse 0.391 0.549 16 14.5 80 16.7 66 163.2 100
75 +5 LA Tech 0.355 0.502 69 14.2 84 16.0 58 172.4 11
76 -3 Western Michigan 0.354 0.455 98 15.3 72 17.2 72 169.8 24
77 +2 Troy 0.352 0.440 111 16.8 54 19.7 93 171.0 18
78 -1 UCLA 0.346 0.547 20 15.2 75 17.9 79 167.3 51
79 +8 SMU 0.339 0.480 78 14.5 81 18.5 83 165.9 74
80 +6 Duke 0.330 0.535 38 15.9 60 19.1 85 166.7 63
81 +2 East Carolina 0.327 0.481 77 17.7 44 20.6 98 169.8 23
82 -16 Oregon St. 0.315 0.548 18 13.6 91 16.9 67 171.3 14
83 -1 Boston College 0.312 0.530 48 10.0 112 13.4 41 167.3 50
84 -3 Virginia 0.304 0.531 44 14.2 83 17.8 77 164.2 91
85 -- Arkansas St. 0.296 0.433 116 13.0 96 16.5 63 162.8 102
86 -17 Mississippi 0.268 0.523 58 13.3 93 16.6 64 163.3 99
87 +1 Kansas 0.259 0.537 34 17.0 52 24.5 115 171.5 13
88 +1 Tulane 0.237 0.466 90 11.2 102 21.8 103 168.7 34
89 +2 Purdue 0.234 0.535 40 12.0 100 17.4 73 173.2 8
90 +3 Minnesota 0.225 0.537 35 13.9 85 17.5 74 167.0 56
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
91 -15 Army 0.225 0.460 94 13.9 88 19.2 88 162.6 104
92 +2 Wyoming 0.217 0.517 61 12.1 99 19.1 86 167.0 60
93 +2 Bowling Green 0.216 0.441 109 15.4 70 19.6 92 169.1 31
94 -2 Wake Forest 0.211 0.513 64 15.2 74 19.6 91 167.4 49
95 -5 Miami-OH 0.185 0.446 106 11.1 103 16.5 62 165.7 77
96 +4 Middle Tenn. 0.183 0.412 120 13.2 95 23.0 112 167.5 46
97 -1 Indiana 0.180 0.538 33 13.9 86 21.1 100 169.3 27
98 +7 Ball St. 0.177 0.450 100 12.8 98 19.5 89 165.4 80
99 -2 Rice 0.170 0.477 81 14.3 82 22.5 111 169.5 26
100 -1 UTEP 0.167 0.448 101 13.9 87 23.0 113 171.1 17
101 +3 SJSU 0.145 0.502 68 10.7 108 20.9 99 167.2 52
102 +1 LA-Lafayette 0.140 0.426 119 15.2 77 21.9 106 167.0 58
103 -2 Marshall 0.129 0.475 84 10.8 106 18.4 81 165.5 79
104 +8 Utah St. 0.114 0.503 67 15.8 64 21.9 104 168.1 42
105 -3 Idaho 0.114 0.459 95 11.6 101 22.1 108 169.1 30
106 +1 LA-Monroe 0.103 0.440 110 11.0 104 21.6 102 166.4 65
107 -9 Central Michigan 0.096 0.448 103 10.9 105 21.2 101 173.5 7
108 -2 Kent St. 0.081 0.448 102 7.8 118 18.9 84 166.1 69
109 +1 Colorado St. 0.078 0.492 73 10.7 109 22.1 110 160.9 112
110 -1 Western Kentucky 0.070 0.443 108 10.2 111 20.5 97 159.1 116
111 -3 North Texas 0.070 0.429 118 10.6 110 22.1 109 163.4 98
112 -1 New Mexico St. 0.067 0.454 99 9.5 113 24.5 116 166.4 66
113 +1 Buffalo 0.052 0.436 114 7.9 116 17.2 71 166.0 70
114 -1 FL-Atlantic 0.051 0.438 112 8.1 115 22.0 107 164.5 86
115 +1 New Mexico 0.034 0.478 80 7.8 117 23.9 114 167.1 54
116 +1 Eastern Michigan 0.026 0.465 91 8.3 114 26.0 118 164.7 85
117 -2 UAB 0.025 0.479 79 10.8 107 21.9 105 164.3 89
118 -- Akron 0.017 0.430 117 6.3 120 25.9 117 167.1 55
119 +1 UNLV 0.008 0.504 66 13.0 97 26.2 119 165.7 78
120 -1 Memphis 0.000 0.459 96 7.4 119 27.5 120 169.2 28


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Week 5: Top 25 -- RBA

Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Stanford 1.000 0.544 24 26.9 2 8.7 4 167.4 48
2 -- Alabama 1.000 0.549 17 24.0 7 6.1 1 157.6 120
3 +4 Oregon 0.983 0.533 42 28.4 1 10.7 13 176.0 3
4 -1 Wisconsin 0.983 0.537 36 26.7 3 10.4 11 162.1 106
5 -1 Boise St. 0.983 0.458 97 25.6 4 9.6 7 169.2 29
6 -- TCU 0.966 0.463 92 24.5 5 12.2 26 168.2 41
7 +1 LSU 0.966 0.550 15 21.9 12 8.2 3 161.0 110
8 -3 Oklahoma 0.949 0.545 22 23.5 8 9.4 5 170.7 19
9 +2 Florida 0.932 0.551 12 23.0 10 7.9 2 161.8 107
10 -1 Oklahoma St. 0.932 0.551 13 24.5 6 13.9 44 172.5 10
11 -1 Virginia Tech 0.916 0.526 54 18.9 35 10.2 9 158.2 118
12 -- Florida St. 0.906 0.556 8 19.3 32 9.9 8 166.2 67
13 +2 Nebraska 0.904 0.530 47 21.5 15 12.8 30 167.0 59
14 -- Ohio St. 0.902 0.531 46 19.8 26 10.4 10 159.4 114
15 +4 Texas A&M 0.895 0.554 10 19.8 25 10.9 15 171.1 16
16 NA Clemson 0.891 0.524 57 18.2 42 11.5 19 166.4 64
17 -1 Auburn 0.890 0.543 26 21.7 13 15.8 56 159.3 115
18 -- Iowa 0.870 0.525 56 19.6 28 13.2 36 164.2 90
19 -6 Arkansas 0.867 0.569 1 22.6 11 13.0 33 165.3 81
20 NA Arizona St. 0.867 0.526 55 19.7 27 10.8 14 173.8 6
21 -- South Carolina 0.852 0.543 27 21.3 17 13.0 32 157.8 119
22 +1 Georgia 0.842 0.555 9 20.5 21 12.5 28 159.5 113
23 NA Notre Dame 0.838 0.565 3 17.3 50 12.1 25 164.9 84
24 NA Illinois 0.833 0.539 32 17.0 51 13.1 35 169.8 22
25 NA Texas 0.807 0.521 60 18.8 36 11.8 23 168.0 44

Oddities abound in this week's RBA top 25. One-loss (3) Oregon jumps four spots over undefeated (4) Wisconsin and (5) Boise State thanks to a staggering offensive performance against Arizona. (8) Oklahoma drops three spots despite defeating (30) Missouri thanks to a lower-than-expected defensive performance. Meanwhile, (4) Texas A&M jumps four spots after losing to (10) Oklahoma State, who dropped a spot. RBA has a lot more poll mobility than TFG does, so we come to expect these things. The key to success in RBA's polls is sustained efficiency, exemplified by (1) Stanford and (2) Alabama. (3) Oregon, (4) Wisconsin, and (5) Boise State can contend for the top spot by improving their defenses.


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New entries: Clemson, Arizona St., Notre Dame, Illinois, Texas.

Dropped out: West Virginia, North Carolina St., Miami-FL, USC, Mississippi St..

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Week 4: Saturday Predictions


Another Saturday, another 45 games. TFG and RBA disagree on four of these: OSU/Texas A&M, Indiana/North Texas, Virginia/Southern Miss., and West Virginia/LSU. We'll also see Boise State play Tulsa, a team that Oklahoma State played this past week; this'll give us one more "common opponent" data point to see how the Broncos stack up to BCS competition.

Home Visitors Home Visitors
  1Alabama37  12Arkansas29   2Alabama34  13Arkansas21
 33Arizona St.32  23USC30  29Arizona St.28  24USC24
 48Arizona28   8Oregon36  37Arizona21   7Oregon38
 19Auburn49 116FL-Atlantic23  16Auburn49 113FL-Atlantic17
106Ball St.30  82Army34 105Ball St.24  76Army28
 46Baylor44 100Rice29  48Baylor38  97Rice14
  2Boise St.43  52Tulsa26   4Boise St.49  59Tulsa17
109Buffalo26  57Connecticut34 114Buffalo21  62Connecticut27
 28Clemson29  13Florida St.30  27Clemson24  12Florida St.27
 90Duke37 101Tulane30  86Duke34  89Tulane21
 77East Carolina44 114UAB30  83East Carolina41 115UAB27
 69FIU40 103LA-Lafayette29  53FIU38 103LA-Lafayette21
 36Georgia Tech35  42North Carolina30  42Georgia Tech31  43North Carolina24
102Idaho34  74Fresno St.36 102Idaho27  78Fresno St.31
 34Illinois36  59Western Michigan29  26Illinois41  73Western Michigan17
 25Iowa42 110LA-Monroe22  18Iowa41 107LA-Monroe17
 54Kentucky25   6Florida34  51Kentucky20  11Florida34
 99Marshall22  11Virginia Tech36 101Marshall14  10Virginia Tech34
 39Maryland32  56Temple27  36Maryland31  60Temple17
119Memphis28  80SMU39 119Memphis17  87SMU35
 94Miami-OH33  95Bowling Green30  90Miami-OH28  95Bowling Green24
 15Miami-FL36  37Kansas St.30  22Miami-FL31  49Kansas St.24
 31Michigan St.38  93Central Michigan25  44Michigan St.41  98Central Michigan14
 41Michigan38  60SDSU31  50Michigan34  47SDSU28
 44Mississippi St.34  76LA Tech26  25Mississippi St.41  80LA Tech14
 72Mississippi31  20Georgia38  69Mississippi24  23Georgia34
108North Texas35  98Indiana36 108North Texas31  96Indiana28
  7Ohio St.37  75Colorado22  14Ohio St.41  74Colorado14
  4Oklahoma35  24Missouri26   5Oklahoma38  33Missouri21
 55Oregon St.35  84UCLA27  66Oregon St.31  77UCLA24
 29Penn State46 117Eastern Michigan21  39Penn State49 117Eastern Michigan6
 30Pittsburgh32  26Notre Dame30  34Pittsburgh28  31Notre Dame21
 65Rutgers36  71Ohio32  84Rutgers28  75Ohio24
113SJSU32 115New Mexico St.28 104SJSU27 111New Mexico St.21
 27South Carolina38  79Vanderbilt25  21South Carolina38  65Vanderbilt20
 35South Florida36  97UTEP23  38South Florida45  99UTEP14
 83Syracuse33  67Toledo32  70Syracuse31  71Toledo24
 14Texas A&M35  17Oklahoma St.33  19Texas A&M27   9Oklahoma St.31
 40Texas Tech38  50Nevada34  46Texas Tech38  57Nevada27
 68Troy38  96Middle Tenn.30  79Troy34 100Middle Tenn.24
 92Utah St.37 112Colorado St.29 112Utah St.27 110Colorado St.21
 87Virginia32  70Southern Miss.33  81Virginia28  58Southern Miss.27
 62Washington33  47California32  52Washington31  45California28
 21West Virginia29   5LSU33  17West Virginia25   8LSU24
104Wyoming24  18Nebraska37  94Wyoming20  15Nebraska41

Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


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