Monday, October 17, 2011

Week 7: Saturday Recap

[ Note: This post was delayed due to me glued to the tragic news from the Las Vegas Motor Speedway this afternoon. --Justin ]

Week 7
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
TFG  36.1 -  13.9 72.3  37 -  13 74.0
RBA  36.8 -  13.2 73.7  34 -  16 68.0

Game of the Week
Oklahoma State Cowboys 38, Texas Longhorns 26; 184 plays

(15) Oklahoma St. 34, (29) Texas 33 (51.5%); 172 plays

Oklahoma State reeled off 38 points against a steady Texas defense that couldn't slow down the Cowboys. Oklahoma State probably didn't make any huge strides in the eyes of TFG, since a raw offensive efficiency of 20.7 PPH is good but not top-tier. The Cowboys effectively doubled their odds of finishing the season undefeated, but they've still got to deal with the Sooners.

(9) Oklahoma St. 31, (31) Texas 24 (52.3%); 170 plays

Texas held Oklahoma State well below their passing averages for the season and dominated time of possession. Unfortunately, that didn't seem to stop the Cowboys from scoring. RB Jeremy Smith took two long runs up the middle all the way to the house to make up for the passing deficiency. Then, the Longhorns turned the ball over three times. Add it all up, and you get an Oklahoma State 38-26 victory.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game
Oregon Ducks 41, Arizona State Sun Devils 27; 186 plays

(5) Oregon 38, (11) Arizona St. 24 (73.3%); 175 plays

RBA predicted a 14 point margin of victory, and that's exactly what we got. Oregon suffered several injuries, including one to starting quarterback Darron Thomas, but played through them without losing a step. Arizona State quarterback Brock Osweiler looks like a future star, but he simply couldn't keep scoring with the Ducks.

(7) Oregon 39, (25) Arizona St. 29 (78.2%); 181 plays

Eddie's was a FG off for each one, mine was 2 points off for each but missed the final margin of victory. Oregon continues to be the fastest team in FBS this year, and combines speed with impressive efficiency. Throw in a top-10 defense and Arizona State didn't have much hope of hanging around for long.

Unstoppable Force 5, Immovable Object 1

Shootout of the Week
Texas A&M Aggies 55, Baylor Bears 28; 181 plays

(16) Texas A&M 39, (46) Baylor 31 (77.9%); 177 plays

I'm not entirely sure why Baylor was listed as a top-25 team by the AP going into this game. They had no business being in this game and it showed. The Aggies ran up nearly 700 yards of offense on the Bears, but much of it is thanks to their pace. Efficiency-wise the Aggies aren't that great, but humans can have problems understanding that.

(20) Texas A&M 38, (40) Baylor 28 (70.2%); 171 plays

Texas A&M just can't play pass defense. Oklahoma State and Arkansas unloaded on them, and Baylor picked up where they left off. Robert Griffin III was the third quarterback this year to set a school passing record (430 yards) against the Aggies. Unfortunately, Baylor can't play any pass defense, either. Ryan Tannehill lit up the Bears for 415 yards and six touchdowns on the way to a 55-28 victory.

Coin Toss Game of the Week
Ohio State Buckeyes 17, Illinois Fighting Illini 7; 147 plays

(28) Illinois 25, (19) Ohio St. 24 (72.1%); 164 plays

One. That's how many passes Ohio State completed against Illinois. This game set college football back fifty years, as the Tresselball game plan played out to perfection. The Buckeyes had only 228 yards of offense with only one completion on four passes. They punted seven times. However, they didn't turn the ball over, whereas the Illini turned it over three times. With a defense like Ohio State's, you just can't do that.

(9) Ohio St. 31, (36) Illinois 29 (64.0%); 163 plays

Much like Christopher Lee in a James Bond film, Ohio State only needed one shot pass to be effective. TFG may be overestimating the prowess of the Buckeyes based on previous years' data, but at the same time Illinois was vastly overrated in the press. TFG knew the real deal about the Illini, though.

Coin Toss Record: TFG 4, RBA 2.

2011 - 2012 Season
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
RBA 247.3 -  87.7 73.8 247 -  88 73.7
TFG 251.2 -  83.8 75.0 246 -  89 73.4

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