Sunday, October 9, 2011

Week 6: Saturday Recap

Week 6
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
TFG  38.9 -  13.1 74.8  41 -  11 78.8
RBA  37.8 -  14.2 72.7  40 -  12 76.9

Game of the Week
LSU Tigers 41, Florida Gators 11

(3) LSU 35, (7) Florida 30 (66.6%)

Computer ranking don't do well with teams that have a large number of injuries, and that means we can expect to miss more Florida picks in the future. LSU thrashed what should have been a good Florida team, but it'll be interesting to see how this affects the rankings for Alabama and the Tigers since they played a common opponent on consecutive weeks. This one wasn't particularly close.

(4) LSU 31, (10) Florida 20 (54.8%)

It's tough to judge exactly what would have happened if Florida had played its first stringers, but it's hard to imagine LSU losing. Jacoby Brissett (starting in place of backup Jeff Driskel) didn't surrender a 46 yard touchdown pass on the Tigers' first drive. He wasn't responsible for punt coverage on Brad Wing's fake punt touchdown (later ruled no score by taunting). Florida never looked competitive in a 41-11 loss.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game
Oklahoma Sooners 55, Texas Longhorns 17

(8) Oklahoma 31, (24) Texas 17 (73.8%)

This was close for a quarter. Then, Oklahoma went on a scoring rampage on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma's defense outscored Texas, 21-17, en route to a 55-17 victory that was even less close than the score suggests. Texas scored a touchdown on a kickoff return in the 2nd and tacked on an offensive touchdown late in the 4th quarter. Supposedly, Texas was the #12 team in the country. This is what happens when you look at a team's record instead of shades of gray against a variety of opponent strengths.

(4) Oklahoma 34, (21) Texas 28 (75.0%)

We're not saying that OU has never been accused of running up the score in order to impress the computers and voters, but given that 14 of the Sooners' points after halftime came from Texas turnovers it's hard to say this is more of the same. Still, at least the computers saw going into this game that Texas was closer to a fringe top-25 team than sniffing the top 10; not much is going to change here, but don't expect the Longhorns to be members of the TFG top 25 for long unless they can get their act together.

Unstoppable Force 4, Immovable Object 1

Shootout of the Week
Arkansas Razorbacks 38, Auburn Tigers 14

(17) Arkansas 40, (26) Auburn 36 (64.7%)

This looked all set up for more of the same Auburn magic when Arkansas clunked a FG attempt off the uprights on their second drive and then the Tigers got a 55 yard TD on a breakaway run. Unfortunately for Auburn it looked like someone back home lost the genie lamp partway through the second quarter, allowing the Razorbacks to ring up 31 unanswered points. This year's game rung up fewer than half the points of last year's contest, yet I suspect Eddie's okay with that.

(16) Arkansas 31, (13) Auburn 28 (63.1%)

Well, this game was a shootout for one team. Happily, it was my Razorbacks. Tyler Wilson hit 19 straight passes at one point and led the Hogs to 31 unanswered points. Auburn's running game was shut down in the second half, as Arkansas stacked the line and dared Auburn to throw. Barrett Trotter and Keihl Frasier were incapable of passing against the Razorback secondary, leading to three interceptions and only 104 yards passing. In the end, Arkansas got payback for last year's screw job, 38-14.

Coin Toss Game of the Week
UCLA Bruins 28, Washington State Cougars 25

(61) Washington St. 34, (75) UCLA 28 (64.6%)

For a late-night west coast game between two lower tier Pac-12 teams, this game was alarmingly important. It was this week's coin toss. I had nine points on it for the pick'em. What happens? The Cougars settle for field goals while UCLA scores touchdowns late, resulting in a UCLA 28-25 victory.

(71) UCLA 34, (81) Washington St. 30 (64.6%)

One of the downsides of having a computerized prediction algorithm is that you find yourself caring about every single game played over the weekend. Being on the edge of my seat about UCLA/WSU isn't quite as bad as, say, constantly reloading the Syracuse/Tulane box score to see if Syracuse pulls it out (answer: they did ... as time expired), but it's close. Fortunately UCLA had some last-minute magic in the form of a TD and an INT to seal it, pushing TFG back into the Coin Toss lead.

Coin Toss Record: TFG 3, RBA 2.

2011 - 2012 Season
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
RBA 210.4 -  74.6 73.8 213 -  72 74.7
TFG 215.0 -  70.0 75.4 210 -  75 73.7

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