Week 14: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week

Wisconsin Badgers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers

GUGS Score: 75.3

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
17	Nebraska	0.770	0.616	18	26.1	22	16.1	20	168.0	47
12	Wisconsin	0.806	0.553	42	30.1	5	17.1	27	156.0	114

Where's the SEC title game? GUGS shades towards close games, and TFG thinks the Dawgs are going to get blown out (no offense, Georgia fans). This, however, should be closer. The last time they played this year it was at Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers eeked out a 3-point victory; that kind of loss seems to be Wisconsin's MO this year, with four losses by exactly a field goal (their other loss was to Ohio State by a touchdown). Wisconsin's lost a lot of offense from last year, but has still been (opponent-and-pace-adjusted) very efficient. Nebraska hasn't been a slouch, either, and with both defenses in the "good" but not "outstanding" category, this looks to be a close, relatively high-scoring affair between two top-20 teams. The Badgers will try and slow things down, while the Huskers will pick up the pace a bit. It'll be a good game with no clear favorite, but since Nebraska doesn't have home field advantage this time, look for the Badgers to eek out a close win in the end. The predicted margin is, fittingly, a field goal. Wisconsin 37, Nebraska 34 (55.5%); 161 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
19	Nebraska	0.863	0.533	45	18.7	35	11.5	23	167.1	65
16	Wisconsin	0.882	0.531	47	20.8	22	11.0	16	161.6	112

What?  No Alabama-Georgia?  If you must know, it's because RBA doesn't think that game is going to be very competitive (31-17, Alabama).  On the other hand, Nebraska-Wisconsin should be a pretty good game, even if not matching two teams in the BCS top three.  The formerly unstoppable Badger offense has proven itself inconsistent in 2012, notching a 32.6 +/- 23.6 PPH performance.  Their defense isn't Alabama or Notre Dame, but a 4.8 +/- 12.4 PPH very respectable.  The Huskers sport a similarly effective defense at 3.6 +/- 16.0 PPH.  The key in this game is the Nebraska offensive consistency.  They haven't always been flashy, but the Cornhuskers 21.9 +/- 6.3 PPH demonstrates a predictability that RBA likes.  RBA says that Nebraska wins the Big Ten, 28-24, with 58.8% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

UCF Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

GUGS Score: 58.5

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
50	Tulsa	0.609	0.466	92	16.1	66	14.1	43	171.9	16
36	UCF	0.713	0.461	97	18.4	38	14.1	40	163.5	104

For what it's worth, history is on my side.  Tulsa beat UCF three weeks ago, 23-21.  UCF's offense simply isn't consistent.  A 30.7 +/- 24.6 PPH performance will only look good because Tulsa isn't very good on defense at 11.2 +/- 5.8 PPH.  The only reason why Tulsa will win this game is because UCF's 10.0 +/- 8.3 PPH defense is even worse.  It will be ugly, but expect a 27-24 Tulsa victory with 54.4% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
44	Tulsa	0.598	0.421	81	20.0	70	17.1	28	178.3	10
33	UCF	0.636	0.354	114	24.9	27	19.9	50	156.9	108

I'm not sure a two-point victory at home is really having history on your side, but whatever. This game is a tale of two teams with opposing strengths and weaknesses: Tulsa has no offense, but a relatively solid D, while UCF has a good offense, but a middling defense. These teams are also on opposite ends of the tempo spectrum; Tulsa will want to go-go-go, while UCF is a more patient team. This will be close, but TFG thinks the Knights will get revenge for their loss a few weeks ago. UCF 35, Tulsa 33 (54.0%); 167 plays.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	10.68 -  4.32	71.17%
TFG	10.65 -  4.35	71.03%

Week 13: Saturday Matchups

[ NOTE: With the Thanksgiving holiday this week, neither Eddie nor I had time to write up summaries. The short of it is that both games we highlight are pretty good this week, and both are ACC-SEC matchups. Historically this hasn't gone well for the ACC, but given that we're each split about who will win these games, at the very least one of us will be correct about picking the winner of a game involving an ACC team. Don't underestimate that. ]

Game of the Week

Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles

GUGS Score: 83.1

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
4	Florida St.	0.868	0.496	64	30.7	5	14.4	11	156.6	110
5	Florida	0.859	0.649	9	25.0	25	12.2	3	156.2	113

Florida St. 33, Florida 30 (52.0%); 156 plays

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
16	Florida St.	0.891	0.547	17	22.3	16	9.3	5	165.8	77
5	Florida	0.975	0.558	5	17.8	42	8.8	3	161.2	114

Florida 24, Florida St. 21 (51.0%); 163 plays

Coin Toss Game of the Week

South Carolina Gamecocks at Clemson Tigers

GUGS Score: 76.1

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
15	Clemson	0.899	0.527	54	23.5	5	14.0	43	168.0	49
7	South Carolina	0.958	0.544	25	23.3	8	9.9	8	157.9	123

Clemson 31, South Carolina 27 (65.3%); 162 plays

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
21	Clemson	0.732	0.498	62	28.0	13	18.8	41	174.9	16
13	South Carolina	0.798	0.585	30	28.0	12	16.2	18	157.2	103

South Carolina 38, Clemson 36 (59.2%); 166 plays

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	28.82 - 12.18	70.30%
TFG	28.66 - 12.34	69.90%

-->

Week 12: Saturday Matchups

<!-- GOTW 20121117-1529-1674 79.1

Game of the Week

Stanford Cardinal at Oregon Ducks

GUGS Score: 79.1

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
3	Oregon	0.870	0.512	56	33.3	3	15.5	15	179.8	8
9	Stanford	0.831	0.519	52	27.7	14	14.7	11	160.3	91

This game has come up as a game of the week for the last few years now, and it's pretty easy to see why: two good teams which TFG feels are evenly matched, and who will create a lot of points. Oregon is definitely known for piling on the points, but this year they've finally broken into the top three in offensive efficiency. In previous years they scored a lot because they were very fast and pretty efficient; this year it's because they're still playing very fast, but now they're also very efficient. The only knock against the Ducks right now is that they haven't played a difficult schedule -- sorry, Oregon fans, but Arizona doesn't count -- and they've had mixed results. They blew out then-TFG #26 Arizona State, but struggled mightily against then-TFG #16 USC. Stanford is a step above USC on defense, and very close to USC's abilities on offense. This game will be the biggest potential stumbling block to Oregon's title hopes. It all depends on whether the computer has underestimated the Ducks because of their tendency to take their foot off the gas early, or if the USC game was a sign of the true Oregon squad. TFG gives the nod to the Ducks, but just barely. Oregon 40, Stanford 36 (57.6%); 170 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2	Oregon	0.992	0.529	48	28.6	1	11.8	24	176.9	2
11	Stanford	0.931	0.542	31	20.6	23	10.2	11	167.0	64

RBA has a similar attitude towards this game as TFG for many of the same reasons.  RBA considers Oregon the top offense in college football this year, even considering their blistering pace.  Their defense is in the top 25, but we should expect them to find themselves in more shootouts thanks to a series of defensive injuries.  Even without Andrew Luck, the Cardinal are still managing a respectable 30.0 +/- 18.8 PPH offense and kept Southern Cal in check with a 4.3 +/- 11.9 PPH defense.  Just so everyone remembers, that's the same Southern Cal that put up 51 points on Oregon a couple weeks ago.  In the end, the game is being played in Eugene, and Stanford simply won't be able to keep up with the nation's top offense.  RBA picks Oregon, 38-24, but with only 56.6% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Houston Cougars at Marshall Thundering Herd

GUGS Score: 41.2

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
89	Marshall	0.282	0.475	84	16.3	61	21.5	110	167.4	56
75	Houston	0.393	0.469	85	15.9	67	18.8	88	176.9	3

Sure, now RBA picks against Houston... the Cougars are in free-fall at this point, now down to an offensive efficiency of 23.6 +/- 15.4 PPH and defensive efficiency of 15.2 +/- 7.2 PPH.  RBA disagrees with TFG's assessment of the efficiencies in this one.  Marshall sports superior, if less consistent, 24.7 +/- 16.8 PPH offense and 13.3 +/- 16.2 PPH defense.  However, the differences are small, meaning that the Thundering Herd need home field advantage to win this one, 34-31, with 62.6% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
90	Marshall	0.312	0.377	104	18.1	86	24.8	95	180.1	7
68	Houston	0.455	0.378	102	19.7	72	21.2	58	186.4	3

This game will be fast. How fast? Let's put it this way: the slower team (Marshall) plays at a clip faster than the speed demons in Oregon. Houston takes that to the next ridiculous level. Between the pace and the iffy defenses, expect a lot of points in this game. Houston was in last week's Coin Toss Game of the Week, and their inept performance against Tulsa let me clinch the 2012 Coin Toss title with four weeks to go (thanks, Houston). This week, though, TFG is giving the Cougars the nod. Their offense is a full 1.6 PPH more efficient than that of the Thundering Herd, and their defense surrenders 3.6 fewer PPH than their opponents. The only thing Marshall has going for them is home field advantage, but that won't be enough to overcome Houston's superiority. Houston 40, Marshall 35 (64.8%); 183 plays.

2012 Coin Toss Record: RBA 3, TFG 8.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	34.61 - 14.39	70.63%
TFG	34.13 - 14.87	69.65%

-->

Week 11: Saturday Matchups

Note: I've been absolutely atrocious about finding time to write these. It hasn't been fair to our reads or to Eddie, and it's going to stop now. Partially because I'm embarrassed that I haven't found time to keep up with my own blog, and partially because I've missed weeks and weeks of gloating about how I'm stomping Eddie in our Coin Toss series this year.
--Justin

Game of the Week

Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs

GUGS Score: 64.9

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
21	TCU	0.738	0.510	57	25.5	24	16.9	21	164.5	63
11	Kansas St.	0.816	0.599	27	35.3	2	19.4	47	153.9	118

Kansas State is one of those teams that does well, but for the life of it just can't seem to impress my computer. They've only had two games all year decided by fewer than two touchdowns, yet they've yet to crack the top 10 (to be fair, though, Boise State should fall enough to gift them a top-10 spot any week now). The main problem is that TFG still sees garbage time touchdowns as points allowed by a team, and the Wildcats seem to hand over at least one of those each game. Clamp down on those, and TFG would easily put the Wildcats in the top five. The good news is that they've got an opportunity to do just that against a team TFG still respects, even though the Horned Frogs are 2-3 since the start of October. TFG thinks this will be a relatively high-scoring affair between two top-25 teams, which has all the ingredients for a good Game of the Week. In the end, though, Kansas State's high-powered offense is just going to be too much for TCU's defense. With luck the Wildcats can clamp down on defense and start to show that they're deserving of being a real national title contender. Kansas St. 40, TCU 36 (57.1%); 159 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
33	TCU	0.761	0.464	94	19.9	25	14.5	46	168.1	45
4	Kansas St.	0.975	0.531	48	26.9	2	13.6	36	165.7	79

The ironic part of Justin's return is that I'm throwing this together at the last minute because I just got back from Las Vegas.  If there was any question, I rendered unto Caesar's Palace that which is Caesar's.  -- Eddie

RBA respects the Wildcats enough to rank them in the top five.  However, I'm a little worried about this pick.  Maybe you've heard, but Collin Klein may not play against TCU.  RBA assumes that he'll play, so the rest of this post will assume the same.  With Klein, Kansas State has a top five offense.  RBA still thinks they're inconsistent, but they're getting better, improving from 35.5 +/- 19.8 PPH to 34.6 +/- 15.4 PPH over the last three weeks.  Contrary to the accolades they're getting from the people on ESPN, the Wildcat defense (9.2 +/- 8.9 PPH) isn't that great, and they have hardly budged in the same time frame.  That said, they should do very well against the Horned Frogs.  TCU has a middle of the pack offense (24.7 +/- 9.5 PPH) and a Baylor-esque defense (0.9 +/- 27.2 PPH).  If Klein doesn't play, it could be dicey, but with Klein, this one is a solid K-State win, 38-31, with 69.2% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Houston Cougars

GUGS Score: 48.0

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
62	Houston	0.514	0.469	85	18.0	41	18.4	83	176.8	3
66	Tulsa	0.474	0.466	91	15.9	65	15.6	55	171.6	16

I humbly accept the smack talk from Justin because, quite frankly, the results haven't been pretty in this space.  The Cougars are sinking without quarterback Case Keenum and coach Kevin Sumlin.  The departures have impacted the offense, dropping from 21.1 +/- 0.1 PPH in 2011 to 22.9 +/- 9.8 PPH.  Their defense has failed them, as well, dropping from 15.2 +/- 1.7 PPH to 15.3 +/- 6.1 PPH.  Combined, this implies that Houston is losing roughly a touchdown per hundred plays against average competition in 2012.  In contrast, Tulsa has remained consistently mediocre all year.  Their offense exhibits an inconsistent 27.7 +/- 21.2 PPH, while their defense is even less consistent at 4.9 +/- 23.5 PPH.  There's a non-zero probability that Houston is still on its way down, but based on the current data, Tulsa's defense is bad enough that the Cougars should keep pace.  Home field advantage swings the game for Houston, 31-28, with 55.6% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
64	Houston	0.482	0.352	113	20.6	61	21.2	62	187.5	2
52	Tulsa	0.548	0.381	100	20.4	65	18.9	42	176.1	12

Even after losing Case Keenum to graduation last year, Houston decided not to slow things down to make it easier on Keenum's replacement. This ... has not gone well. The Cougars have gone from a 28.2 PPH offensive efficiency last year to a mere 20.6 PPH this year. Their defense has also slipped by about three PPH, meaning the Cougars have gone from nipping at the heels of the top 20 to nipping at the heels of the top half of FBS. The Golden Hurricane have experienced a similar but not as drastic swan dive this year, losing 2.8 PPH on offense and 1.2 PPH on defense. Whatever their shortcomings on the field, both teams have decided that this will be another year of GO GO GO. In this end look for a moderately high-scoring game in which the home team eeks out a slight victory. Tulsa 37, Houston 36 (52.4%); 181 plays.

2012 Coin Toss Record: RBA 3, TFG 7.

(P.S. Dear Eddie: Neener neener. So there. --Justin)

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	37.09 - 13.91	72.74%
TFG	36.82 - 14.18	72.20%

Week 10: Saturday Matchups

<!-- GOTW 20121103-1327-1521 77.5

Game of the Week

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State Wildcats

GUGS Score: 77.5

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
11	Kansas St.	0.808	0.582	31	34.4	2	19.4	46	153.7	118
12	Oklahoma St.	0.808	0.610	22	26.9	17	15.1	14	182.1	6

Kansas St. 42, Oklahoma St. 38 (54.4%); 167 plays

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
6	Kansas St.	0.975	0.531	47	26.6	2	13.4	34	165.7	82
7	Oklahoma St.	0.966	0.550	14	21.8	17	13.1	32	173.9	7

Despite their recent success, RBA has only recently started to appreciate the Wildcats.  They've won three games against top 15 teams in the human polls, but RBA doesn't think those teams are really that great.  Sure, Oklahoma sits at #9 in the RBA top 25.  However, West Virginia sits at #48, and Texas Tech is #35.  With only 24 points against Oklahoma despite the Sooners' blistering pace and only 16 points against Arkansas in last year's Cotton Bowl, the Wildcats offensive efficiency is 34.9 +/- 16.6 PPH, indicating a tendency to score big against inferior competition but losing some steam against strong opponents.  That's still very good, but they're not likely to blow the doors off the Cowboys in the same way they beat the Mountaineers and Red Raiders.  Oklahoma State is the opposite, playing consistent 22.2 +/- 0.8 PPH offense.  Defensively, the two teams are evenly matched.  Home field advantage and a slight strength advantage give Kansas State the edge, 35-31, with 60.4% probability.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Maryland Terrapins

GUGS Score: 43.2

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
83	Maryland	0.315	0.527	56	13.5	93	15.1	50	165.1	87
58	Georgia Tech	0.540	0.536	37	19.8	26	19.4	94	163.5	102

Just what I need:  an ACC game.  Neither team is very good offensively, but their defenses are so bad that both teams will look respectable.  Georgia Tech a universally awful 18.5 +/- 1.6 PPH.  Maryland is less predictable but equally terrible 5.7 +/- 18.8 PPH.  From RBA's perspective, this game comes down entirely to home field advantage, giving Maryland a 31-28 edge with 59.8% probability.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
81	Maryland	0.372	0.462	74	18.5	84	22.8	74	164.1	67
66	Georgia Tech	0.472	0.498	63	27.0	16	28.2	107	157.1	106

Georgia Tech 39, Maryland 38 (55.9%); 160 plays

2012 Coin Toss Record:

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	37.24 - 14.76	71.62%
TFG	37.64 - 14.36	72.38%

-->

Week 9: Saturday Matchups

<!-- GOTW 20121027-1522-1513 76.9

Game of the Week

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Oklahoma Sooners

GUGS Score: 76.9

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
3	Oklahoma	0.896	0.614	20	26.9	18	11.4	3	173.6	18
6	Notre Dame	0.866	0.629	18	25.8	26	12.2	4	158.1	101

Oklahoma 33, Notre Dame 29 (68.0%); 165 plays

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
4	Oklahoma	0.983	0.546	21	23.2	7	9.2	7	171.6	16
6	Notre Dame	0.975	0.564	2	20.3	26	8.6	4	164.5	93

Both our systems have a tendency to overrate Oklahoma.  In RBA's case, it's not because they're super-efficient on offense.  It's because they're consistently efficient at 27.1 +/- 7.7 PPH.  If you can put up a reasonable number of points against everyone, you're most likely going to win.  In contrast, the Irish struggle offensively against quality opposition, 32.4 +/- 24.2 PPH.  That rarely matters thanks to their surprisingly good 9.7 +/- 2.1 PPH defense.  Realistically, this game is going to come down to the matchup between Oklahoma's offense and Notre Dame's defense.  The Irish can't afford to get into a shootout.  If everything goes according to plan, Oklahoma silences the echoes, 27-20, with 52.7% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones

GUGS Score: 49.9

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
74	Iowa St.	0.388	0.543	26	10.6	114	11.1	19	169.8	27
40	Baylor	0.681	0.563	3	25.2	3	20.6	104	173.4	10

Baylor's defense is a dreadful 7.6 +/- 25.9 PPH.  The thing is that they can score at will with a 31.5 +/- 12.6 PPH offense.  The Cyclones are going to have a hard time keeping up with the Bears.  Sure, they beat TCU, but they scored only 9 points against Iowa, 13 against Texas Tech, and 10 against Oklahoma State, resulting in a 6.3 +/- 8.5 PPH offense.  Their defense surrenders quite a few points, as well, suggesting that we're in for a shootout.  RBA says Baylor in a very close one, 32-31, with 62.1% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
53	Iowa St.	0.545	0.699	5	16.1	106	15.0	13	174.0	16
38	Baylor	0.606	0.641	16	27.3	16	23.0	78	184.9	4

Iowa St. 37, Baylor 35 (55.6%); 179 plays

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	39.40 - 14.60	72.96%
TFG	38.74 - 15.26	71.74%

-->

Week 8: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week

South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators

GUGS Score: 84.9

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
8	Florida	0.835	0.628	14	25.4	25	13.3	5	156.8	106
6	South Carolina	0.865	0.563	36	29.5	8	14.0	9	155.6	112

This is -- by a large margin -- expected to be the best game of the year. With a GUGS score of 84.9, it is projected to be much better than other top games Stanford at Oregon (77.5), Notre Dame at USC (76.5), Oregon at USC (76.5) or Oklahoma State at Kansas State (76.0). The Gators have gotten to where they are this year by having their 5th-ranked defense make up for their barely-top-25 offense. The Gamecocks, though, have been much more balanced. Both their offense and defense are in the top 10 of the TFG rankings. So what about that common opponent of LSU? Florida hosted LSU and had to come back in the second half to overcome a 6-0 halftime deficit. The Gamecocks visited LSU, lead at the half, and didn't actually surrender the lead for good until the last eight minutes. TFG says that Florida has the edge in this game and in the SEC East race, but it'll be close. Whoever wins this has the inside track on making the SEC Championship game.  Florida 32, South Carolina 31 (55.9%); 156 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
6	Florida	0.959	0.557	6	19.3	32	7.6	2	161.3	111
3	South Carolina	0.983	0.542	30	23.1	8	8.3	4	157.7	123

This one looks like it's going to be great, pitting two of the top six teams in the RBA poll.  They also happen to be in the top seven of the BCS poll, so I'm not alone in this regard.  Both South Carolina and Florida are defensively minded teams, exhibiting 4.4 +/- 7.8 PPH and 1.5 +/- 12.2 PPH efficiencies, respectively.  Unlike Justin, I think this one is going to be relatively low scoring because both teams struggle offensively against top competition.  The Gamecocks peak a little higher at 33.5 +/- 20.8 PPH, but Florida is a bit more consistent at 28.2 +/- 17.8 PPH.  Florida has home field advantage to keep it close, but South Carolina wins the efficiency battle on both sides of the ball.  RBA says South Carolina, 22-21, with 55.7% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Washington Huskies at Arizona Wildcats

GUGS Score: 50.7

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
62	Arizona	0.525	0.562	3	17.6	44	16.9	70	169.2	30
39	Washington	0.698	0.552	12	20.3	26	15.3	53	167.8	48

This one is tough to pick based on this season's data.  Both Arizona and Washington have a good win (Oklahoma State and Stanford, respectively), a few wins against terrible teams, and a bunch of reasonable losses.  The one thing we can say about these two teams is that Washington plays better defense at 6.8 +/- 16.9 PPH than Arizona plays at 9.2 +/- 15.3 PPH, but neither is particularly effective at stopping the opponent.  Offensively, there's no telling what we're going to get.  The Huskies can score, but their 34.7 +/- 28.8 PPH suggests that they're not terribly predictable.  Arizona is merely average offensively at 21.7 +/- 8.2 PPH.  RBA picks Washington, 31-28, with 63.6% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
54	Arizona	0.542	0.683	7	21.6	52	20.1	50	183.5	5
69	Washington	0.466	0.706	2	22.0	46	23.2	81	155.7	111

This doesn't appear to be one of those not-sure-could-be-close games. This appears to be one of those RBA-and-TFG-fundamentally-disagree-on-a-team games. In this case we have wildly differing opinions about Washington. Eddie places them in the top third of FBS, while I place them solidly in the bottom half. We both agree their offense is better than their defense, but TFG says their defense is pretty atrocious. This may be the biggest disagreement you'll see in a Coin Toss game this year, so it'll be a nice litmus test for whose system is better. Given how wildly inconsistent them teams have been (see Eddie's variance numbers) who knows what you're going to get out of this game. TFG gives a reasonable edge to Arizona, but doesn't quite anoint them as the 2-to-1 favorites we'd need to term this an upset should the Huskies win. Arizona 39, Washington 34 (68.5%); 169 plays.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	37.49 - 14.51	72.10%
TFG	37.70 - 14.30	72.50%

Week 7: Saturday Matchups

<!-- GOTW 20121013-1513-1674 76.7

Game of the Week

Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

GUGS Score: 76.7

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
4	Notre Dame	0.862	0.584	26	25.1	26	12.1	4	158.6	98
10	Stanford	0.827	0.557	33	31.2	4	16.7	21	161.9	74

This is the tale of two teams headed in opposite directions. The Fighting Irish have revamped their defense to legitimately become one of the top teams in FBS. Stanford, on the other hand, is still held in high esteem by the computers thanks to the residual statistics of Andrew Luck and his influence on the Cardinal's offensive efficiency. The numbers say Notre Dame are 2-to-1 favorites, but realistically I expect them to have better odds here. Notre Dame 34, Stanford 33 (65.5%); 160 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
9	Notre Dame	0.966	0.565	2	20.3	26	8.6	7	164.6	91
6	Stanford	0.966	0.542	30	22.0	15	12.1	26	167.3	54

I never thought I'd see the day when Notre Dame would be favored against a good team, but here we are.  The Irish have a slight offensive edge at 32.1 +/- 23.5 PPH but lack Stanford's 28.0 +/- 10.3 PPH consistency.  On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame has the consistency at 10.4 +/- 3.6 PPH over the Cardinal's 7.0 +/- 10.3 PPH.  RBA picks Notre Dame, 27-20, but this game is essentially a toss-up at 50.0% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears

GUGS Score: 66.4

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
31	Baylor	0.769	0.559	4	25.6	3	20.0	100	173.4	9
27	TCU	0.798	0.461	99	18.3	36	13.1	36	167.7	50

RBA doesn't know anything about Casey Paschall's DWI suspension, but I'm feeling pretty good about this pick.  Even without losing their starting quarterback, TCU was going to have a struggle on their hands.  The Bears are rolling on offense at 29.4 +/- 7.7 PPH, and TCU's once stout defense has struggled recently at 1.4 +/- 23.4 PPH.  Granted, Baylor has an even bigger sieve at 9.3 +/- 21.4 PPH, but TCU can't match their offensive firepower.  RBA picks Baylor, 38-34, with 63.9% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
30	Baylor	0.670	0.604	21	29.5	11	22.2	74	186.2	2
17	TCU	0.778	0.396	101	27.0	19	16.3	17	158.6	97

This is yet another game where TFG is still adjusting to roster changes. Not only were there all the changes from last year, but as Eddie pointed out there's a new QB for TCU this week. If only I had had the good sense to put my thumb on the scales and had the computer pick a different Coin Toss game this week. As it is I have to hope that Baylor's defense is still atrocious enough to let TCU pile up more points than the Bears. Good luck, Horned Frogs. TCU 41, Baylor 39 (54.4%); 172 plays.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	36.61 - 13.39	73.22%
TFG	36.12 - 13.88	72.24%

-->

Week 6: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Ohio State Buckeyes

GUGS Score: 71.1

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
20	Ohio St.	0.765	0.489	65	25.8	22	16.1	20	159.3	93
18	Nebraska	0.772	0.601	21	26.4	19	16.2	21	167.4	43

In his first season with the Buckeyes, Urban Meyer has started to move the needle a bit on both sides of the ball; currently Ohio State is about 1.0 PPH better than they were at the end of last year. Nebraska, on the other hand, has kept their defense steady but improved about 4.0 PPH on offense. Unlike some top teams which are all defense and no offense (see: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame) or all offense and no defense (see: Georgia, Michigan, and Kansas State), both of these teams are very balanced. This is one of those games where it's basically a toss-up, but home field advantage tips it to Ohio State. Look for a deliberate grind-it-out game with the Buckeyes pulling it out in the end. Ohio St. 35, Nebraska 33 (58.2%); 163 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
21	Ohio St.	0.847	0.531	47	18.8	34	11.1	21	159.3	118
15	Nebraska	0.913	0.533	42	20.9	17	12.4	27	167.0	60

RBA considers Ohio State the runaway favorite for the Leaders division if they were eligible, but that's likely a function of their competition rather than their skill.  The Buckeyes have an above average offense at 26.7 +/- 15.7 PPH, but they're not going to blow the doors off their opponents, especially at their 159 play pace. Their 4.6 +/- 13.0 PPH defense has similar pedigree. The key in this game is going to be the Nebraska defense. The Blackshirts surrender more points on average at 6.9 +/- 11.0 PPH, which should give the Buckeyes a slight edge. RBA says Ohio State wins a squeaker, 27-24, with 51.1% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Virginia Tech Hokies at North Carolina Tar Heels

GUGS Score: 58.0

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
44	North Carolina	0.637	0.540	33	19.0	31	14.8	47	163.5	100
31	Virginia Tech	0.769	0.527	58	16.3	56	10.8	18	158.5	121

Imagine that: an ACC toss-up game. This one is ripe for comedy, featuring two wildly inconsistent defenses. Virginia Tech arrives with a 0.0 +/- 24.8 PPH defense that surrendered 35 to a Pittsburgh team projected to finish in the bottom half of the Big East. With performances like that, RBA expects Virginia Tech to finish in a three-way tie for the Coastal championship at 6-5.  RBA believes that North Carolina surrenders a sickening 0.0 +/- 39.8 PPH, but that's due to a leverage point from shutting out an awful Idaho team after surrendering 28 and 39 points to Wake Forest and Louisville, respectively. RBA says that Virginia Tech wins a relatively high-scoring game, 31-24, with 64.1% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
30	North Carolina	0.672	0.437	83	24.1	29	18.1	29	161.1	83
24	Virginia Tech	0.727	0.519	52	22.3	44	15.0	13	159.1	95

Yay. The ACC. What's going to happen? Who knows! Not me! Not you! Not the players! As usual, Virginia Tech has a decent defense -- at home, at least -- and an offense which has struggled to put up points. UNC has a similar profile in that they've been amazing at home and anemic on the road. Fortunately for them (and my pick) this game is in Chapel Hill. If UNC's offense can overcome Tech's defense, the Tar Heels have a good shot at this one. As it it, it'll be close. North Carolina 32, Virginia Tech 31 (52.8%); 160 plays.

2012 Coin Toss Record: RBA 3, TFG 2.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	35.99 - 13.01	73.45%
TFG	36.23 - 12.77	73.94%

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 5: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week

Wisconsin Badgers at Nebraska Cornhuskers

GUGS Score: 71.9

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
20	Nebraska	0.759	0.555	39	26.3	21	16.6	23	165.5	53
12	Wisconsin	0.822	0.523	46	34.0	2	18.5	34	152.8	118

By the end of last year, Wisconsin had the best offense in FBS. At 39.2 PPH, they were a full 2.0 PPH ahead of the second-best offense, Alabama. Given that it's no wonder that TFG is still positive on Wisconsin, even though their efficiency has plummeted. Oddly, though, their defensive efficiency hasn't budged an inch from that ranking, which is giving them a little leeway to be anemic on the offensive end. The Cornhuskers, though, have gained as much on offense as Wisconsin has lost (+4.3 PPH on the year) while only slipping 0.6 PPH on defense. TFG gives this coin toss to Nebraska, but if Wisconsin's offense further proves that it's not anywhere near as potent as last year, this could get out of hand quickly. Nebraska 38, Wisconsin 37 (50.8%); 159 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
20	Nebraska	0.873	0.532	44	20.8	21	12.5	27	167.0	60
8	Wisconsin	0.950	0.533	41	20.9	20	12.2	26	161.5	110

The Badgers haven't looked very good this season, squeaking past FCS Northern Iowa and Utah State and losing to Oregon State. However, they were so good last year that it's taking a while to bring them back down to earth. The Badger offense has dropped from 37.9 +/- 18.3 PPH under Russell Wilson to 23.3 +/- 4.9 PPH under Danny O'Brien, but at least it's consistent, right? Wisconsin's defense is still playing tolerably well at 5.1 +/- 14.2 PPH to compensate for the offensive malaise. Nebraska has put up a bunch of points at 28.1 +/- 14.6 PPH but lost their only game against BCS competition. Unfortunately, this isn't quite as good as the Badgers.  RBA thinks that this game is going to be really good, but the Badgers should escape Lincoln with a 29-28 victory at 66.1% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Virginia Tech Hokies vs Cincinnati Bearcats

GUGS Score: 67.0

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
24	Cincinnati	0.817	0.509	64	18.5	35	11.2	22	169.1	32
37	Virginia Tech	0.718	0.527	59	16.2	54	11.0	18	158.4	121

RBA has never been a fan of the Hokies. Although they win quite a few games, they just can't seem to perform defensively against strong competition. The Hokie defensive efficiency is only 0.0 +/- 26.9 PPH, meaning that they faceplant against good teams. The Bearcats aren't the best team on the planet, but they're solid on both sides of the ball, averaging 26.0 +/- 15.1 PPH on offense and 5.6 +/- 11.1 PPH on defense.  Virginia Tech simply won't be able to keep up with a 23.1 +/- 13.7 PPH offense.  RBA picks Cincinnati, 31-20, with 55.8% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
26	Cincinnati	0.712	0.517	50	24.7	26	17.2	24	166.9	44
21	Virginia Tech	0.741	0.502	58	22.2	45	14.6	14	159.2	93

Ah yes. The ACC versus the Big East. Two of the least predictable conferences. Technically my computer has a made a prediction -- and a tentative one at that -- but who knows how this will play out. The Hokies have a middle-of-the-pack offense and a just-below-top-tier defense, while Cincinnati is a bit more balanced in their place in the world (26th-best offense, 24th-best defense). The Bearcats tend to play slightly faster than the Hokies, but not by much. Expect this to be a very grind-it-out game between two strong but not impressive programs. And may my pick be correct. Virginia Tech 33, Cincinnati 31 (53.7%); 163 plays.

2012 Coin Toss Record: TIED at 2.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	36.94 - 12.06	75.40%
TFG	35.25 - 13.75	71.94%

Week 4: Saturday Matchups

<!-- GOTW 20120922-1513-1418 65.0

Game of the Week

Michigan Wolverines at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

GUGS Score: 65.0

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
11	Notre Dame	0.820	0.573	31	24.5	29	13.3	6	163.3	64
24	Michigan	0.704	0.554	36	32.5	6	23.0	72	158.1	99

For as much as Denard Robinson takes the blame for not living up to the hype, the real problem facing Michigan is their lack of defense. There's no shame in giving up 41 points to Alabama -- the Crimson Tide are 5.5 PPH clear of the second-best offense in FBS (the slowly-sinking Wisconsin) and post points at a better clip than even Vince Young's Texas squad -- but giving up 25 to Air Force and 13 to a hapless Massachusetts team don't bode well. The Irish, though, are succeeding thanks to their lock-down defense. This game is going to come down to how well Notre Dame can stop Michigan's offense, and if Michigan can find any defense. TFG isn't too optimistic about the latter, and gives the ultimate advantage to Notre Dame. Notre Dame 39, Michigan 35 (74.3%); 160 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
6	Notre Dame	0.966	0.564	2	19.4	29	9.9	9	164.9	87
22	Michigan	0.839	0.544	25	22.8	11	13.9	40	167.5	53

This game is an interesting matchup.  Notre Dame is playing respectable defense, posting a consistent 10.7 +/- 1.6 PPH.  However, their 29.1 +/- 19.5 PPH offense hasn't shown up in big games.  On the other hand, Michigan's defense struggles against top competition at 4.1 +/- 19.6 PPH.  The real key here is if Michigan can get its 36.2 +/- 26.8 PPH offense going.  When the Wolverines are clicking, they are amazing.  When they aren't, you get the Alabama game (although that's largely because Alabama makes everyone look that way).  In the end, RBA thinks Notre Dame wins this one, 31-17, but it's not very confident about it.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Syracuse Orange at Minnesota Golden Gophers

GUGS Score: 33.2

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
97	Minnesota	0.207	0.536	37	13.3	94	18.2	81	166.4	68
82	Syracuse	0.333	0.547	19	15.6	61	18.2	82	163.9	96

Neither team plays particularly good defense.  The Golden Gophers post a 12.0 +/- 12.5 PPH defense, surrendering lots of points even to bad teams.  The Orange surrender 13.8 +/- 8.8 PPH, which isn't much better.  Offensively, the teams are relatively matched.  Minnesota scores 16.9 +/- 7.2 PPH, whereas Syracuse scores a more consistent 16.6 +/- 2.0 PPH.  However, RBA says this game is all about home field advantage, tilting the game in favor of the Gophers, 28-24, with 63.6% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
85	Minnesota	0.336	0.478	72	18.9	75	24.7	92	160.2	88
72	Syracuse	0.444	0.596	21	21.6	52	23.6	77	167.4	40

I'm not excited about this game, GUGS isn't too big on it, and the teams are middling at best. So why did we pick this game for our Coin Toss game? Simple: process of elimination. There are 46 games today, and TFG and RBA agree on 45 of them. This is, quite literally, the only game on which our computers disagree. I don't know if this is a sign that Eddie's computer is getting better, mine is getting worse, or some combination of the two. But by the slimmest of margins TFG thinks that not even home field advantage is going to lift the Golden Gopher offense or defense past the slightly superior Orangemen squad. It'll be close, though. Syracuse 37, Minnesota 35 (51.1%); 163 plays

2012 Coin Toss record: TFG 2, RBA 1

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	34.92 - 11.08	75.91%
TFG	35.86 - 10.14	77.95%

Week 3: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week

USC Trojans at Stanford Cardinal

GUGS Score: 68.7

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
6	Stanford	0.854	0.505	66	33.8	3	16.7	22	157.2	104
14	USC	0.794	0.531	54	29.1	12	16.9	26	163.3	60

I know this seems backwards from conventional wisdom, the Vegas line, and everything else, but that's what you get when you have an algorithm that relies pretty heavily on data from previous years and doesn't account for turnover in rosters. To be fair, though, Stanford did just destroy a not-as-atrocious-as-usual Duke squad, and USC has had problems getting going in their two games. This is one of those early-season games where no one -- not the computers, not the people, and not even the players -- really have a good sense where they stand going into it. If USC wants to catch up to Alabama -- currently boasting the highest WinPct in TFG history -- they'll need to put in an impressive showing here today. For now the computer dreams longingly of Andrew Luck, and gives the edge to the Cardinal. Stanford 42, USC 34 (72.4%); 160 plays

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
4	Stanford	0.975	0.541	32	24.3	7	12.2	25	167.0	58
10	USC	0.958	0.533	45	23.6	9	11.9	24	166.9	60

Stanford boasts the most consistent offense in the country at 24.5 +/- 0.004 PPH, but their 2.1 +/- 20.2 PPH defense struggles against top competition.  Interestingly, so do the Trojans.  For all their offensive firepower (28.5 +/- 9.8 PPH), their defense clocks in at a similar 1.7 +/- 20.5 PPH.  The computers say we should expect a lot of points between two highly ranked teams, making this the Game of the Week.  RBA calls this one for Stanford, 38-34, with 65.5% confidence.  There's still a lot of Luck, DeCastro, and Fleener in this algorithm, whereas there's still a lot of Barkley, Lee, and Woods on the field.  I must confess that I'm skeptical about this pick.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Memphis Tigers

GUGS Score: 24.1

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
116	Memphis	0.099	0.361	105	12.9	117	31.3	111	163.8	57
108	Middle Tenn.	0.181	0.255	119	14.7	113	26.8	99	173.4	16

With a combined WinPct that is still less than the Duke squad Stanford destroyed last week, there's a reason that GUGS doesn't think too highly of this game. But this is what you get when both of us agree on most of the games: down-scoreboard-games with relative unknown teams playing for our Coin Toss. Unfortunately for me, my computer is much more skeptical of my favorite than RBA is of the Tigers. The only reason TFG thinks this is going to be close at all is because of early-season home field advantage. Without that, the Blue Raiders' atrocious defense and even worse offense wouldn't even have a shot. But root, root root for the home team, because I need them to win so Eddie can't talk trash on Monday morning. Middle Tenn. 36, Memphis 35 (53.9%); 168 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
114	Memphis	0.066	0.460	98	9.3	114	23.4	117	169.1	31
109	Middle Tenn.	0.109	0.416	122	8.9	117	21.2	105	168.5	40

In the words of Homer Simpson, "Quit boring everyone!"  This game features two teams near the bottom of the barrel, but in the absence of many disagreements thanks to lackluster matchups, this is what you get.  Both teams are terrible offensively.  The Blue Raider offense scores only 19.9 +/- 22.0 PPH, which is mildly better than the Tigers' 16.5 +/- 14.4 PPH, but only because their team strengths are so low.  Defensively, the Blue Raiders have a slight edge, as well.  However, RBA picks Memphis 29-28 because they're playing at home.  The confidence level is a bit high at 73.1% because the strengths are so low that modest differences make a big impact on confidence.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	34.40 - 10.60	76.44%
TFG	35.07 -  9.93	77.94%

Week 1: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Nebraska Cornhuskers

GUGS Score: 61.1

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
24	Nebraska	0.709	0.602	25	22.5	43	15.7	18	164.2	51
28	Southern Miss.	0.659	0.397	93	23.1	36	17.8	32	176.3	11

Just keep telling yourself that it's not actually September 1st, 2012; it's really January 10th, 2012, and nothing has changed since yesterday. Why? Because that's the way the computers see it, and in that world of last year, Nebraska/Southern Miss is going to be a pretty damn good game. The Huskers are moderate-but-not-crazy favorites thanks to their superior defense and respectable offense. But this year? Who knows. TFG still has to predict this one, though, and it gives a healthy edge to Nebraska. Nebraska 36, Southern Miss. 31 (68.6%); 170 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
26	Nebraska	0.826	0.532	43	19.1	32	12.7	35	166.7	63
12	Southern Miss.	0.924	0.484	76	20.4	26	13.8	47	169.1	32

What?  No (17) Michigan versus (1) Alabama?  As far as RBA's concerned, that one isn't going to be close.  On the other hand, this one looks interesting.  RBA still thinks Larry Fedora is on the sideline for the (12) Golden Eagles, and it should be interesting to see if the defensively-minded Ellis Johnson can keep the offense rolling.  The Golden Eagles were a consistent 20.2 +/- 0.04 PPH last season.  In contrast, Taylor Martinez was an inconsistent 29.3 +/- 20.4.   The defenses paint the same picture, with Nebraska presenting an inconsistent 6.2 +/- 12.8 PPH and Southern Miss 10.5 +/- 6.6 PPH.  Personally, I'm a Southern Miss fan, but RBA says home field advantage wins it for the Cornhuskers, 29-28, with 52.7% confidence.

Shootout of the Week

Toledo Rockets at Arizona Wildcats

GUGS Score: 49.8

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
58	Arizona	0.522	0.559	6	19.2	31	18.5	82	167.7	45
50	Toledo	0.609	0.447	104	21.5	19	19.3	93	168.5	39

The computer thinks that Nick Foles and Eric Page are still playing, so this may be an overestimate.  However, Rich Rodriguez will probably have his side ready to score.  (And if his time at Michigan was any indication, the defense will arrive four years from now.)  Assuming everything carries over from last year, the (50) Toledo Rockets offense should score plenty at 28.8 +/- 14.5 PPH but give up 13.3 +/- 12.0 PPH.  (58) Arizona should play a respectable 29.0 +/- 19.8 PPH on offense and surrender a lot of points at 13.0 +/- 11.1 PPH.  Offenses usually take a few games to gel, so I'd probably take the under on this one.  RBA says Arizona, 35-31, with 54.2% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
66	Arizona	0.483	0.610	17	21.0	56	21.6	68	171.8	18
45	Toledo	0.586	0.441	79	26.9	17	23.4	79	170.0	23

What happens when you mix two offenses in the top half of FBS with two defenses in the bottom half of the division? The shootout of the week, that's what. Once again, I really have no idea how this is going to play out, but TFG says it'll be high scoring with a slight edge to the Wildcats. This one is all about pace, and that generally doesn't change too much year-to-year (see: Oregon, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State). In the end, though, TFG gives the slightest of nods to Arizon. Arizona 40, Toledo 39 (53.3%); 170 plays.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Northwestern Wildcats at Syracuse Orange

GUGS Score: 38.3

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
77	Syracuse	0.380	0.528	58	18.9	74	23.0	76	161.7	76
65	Northwestern	0.483	0.527	59	21.5	51	22.1	72	168.6	30

The computers had to find a Saturday game in which we disagreed, and Syracuse/Northwestern it is. As we've mentioned before, Northwestern has a habit of pulling wins out of the hat, so it's probably a risky proposition to pick against them, but TFG is doing just that. Home field advantage means so much more in the beginning of the year that even a superior offense and defense won't be enough to push the need in the Wildcats' direction in the eyes of the computer. This looks to be close, though, and I'll be rooting the way my computer says I should. Go Orangemen. Syracuse 35, Northwestern 34 (53.1%); 165 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
89	Syracuse	0.257	0.545	20	14.0	81	17.1	75	163.5	96
59	Northwestern	0.509	0.511	62	16.7	54	15.9	64	176.5	2

There aren't too many disagreements between RBA and TFG this week, so the toss-up is slim pickings.  (59) Northwestern has had recent success, whereas (89) Syracuse has been lost in the wasteland since Donovan McNabb played for the Orange(men).  The Syracuse defense is a pathetic 15.4 +/- 3.4 PPH.  Northwestern should do relatively well with a 21.8 +/- 10.1 PPH offense.  The Wildcat defense is a historically flaky 6.3 +/- 19.1 PPH, but Syracuse will need an above-average performance from their 17.1 +/- 6.3 PPH offense to pull this one off.  Home field keeps it close, but Northwestern should win, 28-27, with 62.7% confidence.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	19.90 -  7.10	73.72%
TFG	19.79 -  7.21	73.29%