Friday, May 25, 2018

Welcome to the Tempo-Free Gridiron

If you're here it's probably because you saw the article about our Formula One Elo ratings in FiveThirtyEight. I've been a huge fan of F1 my whole life, so this is an exciting moment for me. Want the definitive answer on Prost versus Senna? Senna versus Schumacher? You'll find all of that plus up-to-date ratings for the current season.

This is just a side hobby, so apologies for the hit-and-miss recent coverage. Our main hobby is college football analytics, but given that it's the college football offseason, there's not too much happening football-wise on an ongoing basis right now. During the regular season you can expect to find weekly posts showcasing
We invite you to look at some of the "best of" we've produced, as other posts of interest, including
This is all on top of predictions for each and every game between two FBS teams.

All-in-all it's grown into a pretty complicated system backed by a lot of code we've written over the last few years. If you have any questions or feedback for us, don't hesitate to leave a comment here or hit us up on Twitter.

Enjoy the FiveThirtyEight article, and we hope to see you there.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron.

Saturday, December 16, 2017

Week 17: Saturday Predictions

 52Arkansas St.31
 90Middle Tenn.27
 79Arkansas St.35
115Middle Tenn.20

 63Colorado St.28
 54Marshall29
 62Colorado St.35
 78Marshall24

114Georgia State26
 95Western Kentucky29
124Georgia State24
 74Western Kentucky31

 83North Texas28
 33Troy34
 96North Texas24
 61Troy34

 47Oregon29
 25Boise St.32
 28Oregon32
 25Boise St.31


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Monday, December 11, 2017

Week 17: Top 25 — TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 10 - 1 ) 0.958 0.617 21 24.5 5 7.6 1 164.1 100
2 -- Clemson  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.940 0.646 10 23.6 9 8.4 2 171.3 57
3 -- Georgia  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.937 0.629 15 23.8 8 8.6 3 155.3 127
4 -- Wisconsin  ( 12 - 1 ) 0.936 0.583 42 24.1 7 8.8 4 154.8 128
5 -- Penn State  ( 10 - 2 ) 0.927 0.557 52 26.8 3 10.3 8 170.5 62
6 -- Ohio St.  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.923 0.622 18 27.4 2 10.8 9 176.3 34
7 -- Auburn  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.919 0.706 2 23.4 11 9.4 6 171.4 56
8 -- Washington  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.894 0.521 64 24.3 6 10.9 10 160.6 110
9 -- Oklahoma  ( 12 - 1 ) 0.865 0.564 49 30.3 1 15.1 44 170.3 64
10 -- Virginia Tech  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.841 0.527 62 17.3 60 9.2 5 168.8 77
11 -- TCU  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.812 0.601 29 17.6 57 10.2 7 170.4 63
12 -- Iowa  ( 7 - 5 ) 0.812 0.654 7 20.8 19 12.0 15 165.3 96
13 -- Notre Dame  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.809 0.652 8 23.1 12 13.4 27 174.5 43
14 -- LSU  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.794 0.617 20 18.5 43 11.2 12 156.9 124
15 -- Stanford  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.794 0.588 39 21.6 17 13.0 23 157.7 121
16 -- Michigan  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.789 0.603 27 18.9 37 11.5 13 159.3 117
17 -- Northwestern  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.783 0.549 56 18.2 49 11.2 11 179.7 21
18 -- Mississippi St.  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.773 0.619 19 20.5 23 12.9 21 165.5 93
19 -- Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.764 0.527 61 26.0 4 16.7 57 187.3 2
20 -- Miami-FL  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.756 0.625 17 18.9 36 12.4 18 169.3 72
21 -- UCF  ( 11 - 0 ) 0.754 0.445 81 22.0 15 14.4 37 176.0 38
22 -- USC  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.753 0.587 41 21.8 16 14.3 32 176.0 37
23 -- Iowa St.  ( 6 - 5 ) 0.735 0.579 46 17.7 55 12.1 17 169.6 70
24 -- Louisville  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.728 0.526 63 23.6 10 16.3 52 169.0 75
25 -- Boise St.  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.721 0.443 83 20.6 21 14.4 35 169.9 65
Rankings through games of 2017-12-10

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 17: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Army (0.004); North Texas (0.002); Eastern Michigan (0.001)

Biggest drops: Navy (-0.002); Air Force (-0.001); FL-Atlantic (-0.001); SMU (-0.001)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 17: Top 25 — RBA

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 10 - 1 ) 0.945 0.555 9 26.2 2 6.3 1 158.0 130
2 -- Wisconsin  ( 12 - 1 ) 0.876 0.535 48 21.8 18 8.4 4 160.5 122
3 -- Ohio St.  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.858 0.534 51 26.1 3 10.0 9 162.7 116
4 -- Clemson  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.854 0.539 39 21.3 21 8.1 2 170.2 41
5 -- Penn State  ( 10 - 2 ) 0.851 0.537 41 25.3 5 9.3 5 165.5 93
6 -- Georgia  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.851 0.545 28 24.5 7 9.9 8 160.1 124
7 -- Auburn  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.837 0.562 3 23.0 11 10.3 11 161.8 119
8 -- Washington  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.832 0.544 29 23.0 10 9.9 7 168.3 63
9 -- TCU  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.822 0.499 66 20.9 23 10.1 10 171.3 31
10 -- Michigan  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.817 0.550 15 20.6 25 9.5 6 164.4 105
11 -- Virginia Tech  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.817 0.521 57 18.0 51 8.3 3 162.4 118
12 -- Oklahoma  ( 12 - 1 ) 0.798 0.543 30 28.0 1 13.3 31 172.4 21
13 -- USC  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.788 0.535 47 21.8 19 11.0 14 168.2 64
14 -- Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.785 0.548 22 26.1 4 14.4 44 176.7 5
15 -- Stanford  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.772 0.543 33 20.9 24 11.2 17 164.5 102
16 -- Notre Dame  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.765 0.566 2 21.9 16 12.2 21 165.0 99
17 -- LSU  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.733 0.556 7 20.2 30 11.8 19 159.8 125
18 -- Iowa St.  ( 6 - 5 ) 0.728 0.550 16 18.0 52 10.9 13 172.1 26
19 -- Washington St.  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.728 0.541 34 21.8 17 13.0 26 174.6 10
20 -- Texas A&M  ( 6 - 5 ) 0.711 0.547 24 21.9 15 14.1 39 174.5 11
21 -- Mississippi St.  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.711 0.559 5 20.5 26 13.2 27 164.6 101
22 -- Northwestern  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.706 0.519 59 17.7 57 10.6 12 176.4 6
23 -- Texas  ( 6 - 6 ) 0.695 0.534 50 18.3 46 12.3 23 171.3 30
24 -- Miami-FL  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.684 0.549 20 19.5 37 12.3 24 164.4 103
25 -- Boise St.  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.682 0.453 105 19.4 38 13.7 36 169.8 44
Rankings through games of 2017-12-10

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 17: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps:

Biggest drops: Navy (-0.014); Army (-0.013)

Full rankings after the jump.

Saturday, December 9, 2017

Week 16: Saturday Predictions

 57Navy28
 61Army26
 61Navy31
 72Army27


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Monday, December 4, 2017

Week 16: Top 25 — TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 10 - 1 ) 0.958 0.617 21 24.5 5 7.6 1 164.1 101
2 +4 Clemson  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.940 0.646 10 23.6 10 8.4 2 171.3 57
3 +2 Georgia  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.937 0.629 15 23.8 8 8.6 3 155.3 127
4 -2 Wisconsin  ( 12 - 1 ) 0.936 0.583 42 24.1 7 8.8 4 154.8 129
5 -1 Penn State  ( 10 - 2 ) 0.927 0.557 52 26.8 3 10.3 8 170.5 62
6 +1 Ohio St.  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.922 0.622 18 27.3 2 10.8 9 176.1 35
7 -4 Auburn  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.919 0.706 2 23.4 11 9.4 6 171.4 56
8 -- Washington  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.894 0.521 64 24.3 6 10.9 10 160.6 110
9 -- Oklahoma  ( 12 - 1 ) 0.865 0.564 49 30.3 1 15.1 43 170.3 64
10 +1 Virginia Tech  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.841 0.527 62 17.3 60 9.2 5 168.9 76
11 -1 TCU  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.812 0.601 29 17.7 57 10.2 7 170.4 63
12 +1 Iowa  ( 7 - 5 ) 0.812 0.654 7 20.8 19 12.0 15 165.3 95
13 -1 Notre Dame  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.809 0.652 8 23.0 12 13.4 27 174.3 44
14 +2 LSU  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.794 0.617 20 18.5 45 11.2 11 156.9 124
15 -- Stanford  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.794 0.589 39 21.6 17 13.0 24 157.7 121
16 +1 Michigan  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.789 0.603 27 18.9 35 11.5 13 159.3 116
17 +1 Northwestern  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.783 0.549 56 18.2 50 11.2 12 179.7 21
18 +1 Mississippi St.  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.773 0.619 19 20.5 23 12.9 22 165.5 94
19 +1 Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.764 0.528 61 26.0 4 16.7 59 187.3 2
20 -6 Miami-FL  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.756 0.625 17 18.9 36 12.4 19 169.3 72
21 -- UCF  ( 11 - 0 ) 0.754 0.446 81 21.9 15 14.4 35 175.8 38
22 -- USC  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.753 0.587 41 21.8 16 14.3 32 176.0 37
23 -- Iowa St.  ( 6 - 5 ) 0.735 0.579 46 17.7 58 12.1 17 169.6 70
24 NA Louisville  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.728 0.526 63 23.6 9 16.3 52 169.0 75
25 -- Boise St.  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.721 0.443 83 20.6 20 14.4 36 169.9 65
Rankings through games of 2017-12-03

New entries: Louisville.

Dropped out: SDSU.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 16: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Appalachian St. (0.076); Florida St. (0.049); FIU (0.041); Idaho (0.037); Coastal Carolina (0.025)

Biggest drops: Miami-FL (-0.056); LA-Lafayette (-0.048); TCU (-0.032); LA-Monroe (-0.029); Georgia Southern (-0.026)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 16: Top 25 — RBA

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 10 - 1 ) 0.945 0.555 9 26.2 2 6.3 1 158.0 130
2 -- Wisconsin  ( 12 - 1 ) 0.876 0.535 48 21.8 19 8.4 4 160.5 122
3 +1 Ohio St.  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.858 0.534 51 26.1 3 10.0 9 162.7 116
4 +1 Clemson  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.854 0.539 39 21.3 21 8.1 2 170.2 42
5 -2 Penn State  ( 10 - 2 ) 0.851 0.537 41 25.3 5 9.3 5 165.5 93
6 +1 Georgia  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.851 0.545 28 24.5 7 9.9 8 160.1 124
7 -1 Auburn  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.837 0.562 3 23.0 10 10.3 11 161.8 119
8 -- Washington  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.832 0.544 29 23.0 11 9.9 7 168.3 63
9 -- TCU  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.822 0.499 66 20.9 24 10.1 10 171.3 32
10 +1 Michigan  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.817 0.550 15 20.6 25 9.5 6 164.4 104
11 -1 Virginia Tech  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.817 0.521 57 18.0 51 8.3 3 162.4 118
12 -- Oklahoma  ( 12 - 1 ) 0.797 0.543 30 28.0 1 13.3 30 172.4 21
13 -- USC  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.788 0.535 47 21.8 18 11.0 14 168.2 65
14 -- Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.784 0.548 22 26.1 4 14.4 44 176.7 5
15 +1 Stanford  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.771 0.543 33 20.9 23 11.2 17 164.5 102
16 -1 Notre Dame  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.765 0.566 2 21.9 15 12.2 21 165.0 98
17 -- LSU  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.733 0.556 7 20.2 29 11.8 19 159.8 125
18 -- Iowa St.  ( 6 - 5 ) 0.728 0.550 16 18.0 52 10.9 13 172.1 26
19 -- Washington St.  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.728 0.541 34 21.8 17 13.0 26 174.6 10
20 +1 Texas A&M  ( 6 - 5 ) 0.711 0.547 24 21.9 16 14.1 39 174.5 11
21 +1 Mississippi St.  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.711 0.559 5 20.5 26 13.2 28 164.6 101
22 +1 Northwestern  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.706 0.519 59 17.7 55 10.6 12 176.4 6
23 +2 Texas  ( 6 - 6 ) 0.695 0.534 50 18.3 46 12.3 23 171.3 30
24 -4 Miami-FL  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.684 0.549 20 19.5 38 12.3 22 164.4 105
25 -1 Boise St.  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.682 0.453 105 19.4 39 13.7 36 169.8 44
Rankings through games of 2017-12-03

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.