Sunday, October 2, 2011

Week 6: Top 25 -- TFG


It was a rough week for my predictions -- I didn't even break 70% for the first time in a while -- but let's see how this affected the top 25.

Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.959 0.625 16 34.1 1 9.7 1 155.1 118
2 -- Boise St. 0.912 0.496 61 29.3 5 11.5 3 164.0 76
3 +2 LSU 0.909 0.671 4 29.8 4 11.9 5 160.8 100
4 +2 Oklahoma 0.902 0.601 21 26.1 16 10.7 2 180.6 5
5 -1 Stanford 0.901 0.495 62 30.9 3 12.8 8 159.8 103
6 +1 Wisconsin 0.882 0.506 57 31.4 2 14.0 15 158.8 107
7 -4 Florida 0.879 0.605 20 27.7 10 12.5 7 161.4 97
8 +2 Oregon 0.859 0.642 10 27.8 9 13.5 12 185.5 1
9 -1 Ohio St. 0.851 0.507 56 23.2 25 11.6 4 158.7 109
10 -1 TCU 0.818 0.427 89 28.0 7 15.4 22 164.9 72
11 -- Virginia Tech 0.803 0.524 48 22.6 32 12.9 9 157.2 115
12 NA Michigan 0.790 0.476 70 27.7 11 16.3 30 160.9 99
13 +10 Clemson 0.788 0.638 12 22.4 35 13.3 11 166.2 62
14 +5 Notre Dame 0.787 0.646 7 22.1 41 13.1 10 170.1 32
15 -3 Texas A&M 0.785 0.630 15 22.9 27 13.7 13 177.9 8
16 -2 Florida St. 0.784 0.643 9 26.5 15 15.8 27 158.1 112
17 -4 Arkansas 0.781 0.641 11 28.7 6 17.2 35 169.3 37
18 -3 Oklahoma St. 0.779 0.553 38 25.5 18 15.4 23 182.0 2
19 +2 Georgia 0.761 0.663 5 27.1 13 17.0 33 160.2 101
20 +5 Michigan St. 0.759 0.563 32 23.1 26 14.6 17 160.2 102
21 +1 Texas 0.754 0.486 66 22.7 30 14.5 16 163.5 81
22 NA West Virginia 0.754 0.536 41 24.3 21 15.5 24 163.1 87
23 -6 Nebraska 0.753 0.563 33 23.9 23 15.3 21 166.1 65
24 -4 Missouri 0.751 0.606 19 21.7 44 13.9 14 171.8 21
25 NA Iowa 0.738 0.521 49 24.5 20 16.2 29 167.8 50
Rankings through games of 2011-10-02


New entries: Michigan, West Virginia, Iowa.

Dropped out: Utah, South Carolina, Penn State.

The Crimson Tide solidify their hold on the top spot, with an absolutely staggering offensive efficiency of 34.1 PPH. Digging through old rankings the closest comparisons I could find were Florida with Tebow (love or hate the guy, the Gators were scary efficient with him at QB), Texas with Vince Young, and USC during their 2003-2005 blitz. Alabama isn't quite as good as these teams yet -- the Tebow Gators tipped the ratings at just north of 37.0 PPH -- but we're looking at rarefied air here. Boise managed to stay ahead of the LSU/Oklahoma/Stanford/Wisconsin pack, but just barely.

Meanwhile Florida, Ohio State, TCU, and Virginia Tech are moving in the wrong direction. The Hokies managed to stay at #11, but their WinPct dropped from 0.841 to 0.803; another week of movement like that and they'll be lucky to stay in the top 20. Clemson seems ready to shed last year's up-and-down routine; another performance like the one in Blacksburg and the Tigers will be a legitimate top-10 team (insert obligatory ACC disclaimer).

Michigan seems to be doing their best to game the system, laying an unreal beatdown on a helpless Minnesota team. I'm not necessarily convinced that the Wolverines are as good as Arkansas, Texas A&M, or Clemson, but if the Golden Gophers continue to sink then that will make this win look less and less impressive in the eyes of the computer. Oh, and some team in Indiana seems to be making a resurgence. I wonder if the national press will finally start giving them some love.

Follow us on Twitter @TFGridiron