Friday, October 21, 2011

Week 8: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA


Odds as of games through 2011-10-16




Legitimate Title Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 1.000 1 0.548 17 26.0 5 5.1 1 157.3 120

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  97 Kent St. 7 at   2 Alabama 48 98.2% 172
2011/09/10   3 Alabama 27 at  37 Penn State 11 89.4% 164
2011/09/17 108 North Texas 0 at   2 Alabama 41 98.1% 153
2011/09/24  19 Arkansas 14 at   2 Alabama 38 74.7% 145
2011/10/01   1 Alabama 38 at  10 Florida 10 70.5% 146
2011/10/08  58 Vanderbilt 0 at   1 Alabama 34 94.6% 140
2011/10/15   1 Alabama 52 at  69 Mississippi 7 97.8% 141
2011/10/22  29 Tennessee 10 at   1 Alabama 38 93.0% 158
2011/11/05   2 LSU 24 at   1 Alabama 28 75.5% 159
2011/11/12   1 Alabama 31 at  38 Mississippi St. 13 94.5% 160
2011/11/26   1 Alabama 31 at  24 Auburn 17 95.4% 158


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs LSU Tigers, 75.5%
Notes: How good is Alabama? They have a better chance of finishing undefeated than Boise State, even considering the Broncos' remaining competition. Through seven games, their defense has allowed an average of 38.1 rushing yards per game and an absolutely disgusting 4.6 PPH.


Boise State Broncos
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.958 7 0.460 95 26.3 4 9.0 6 169.0 30

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  24 Georgia 21 vs   3 Boise St. 35 66.8% 159
2011/09/16   4 Boise St. 40 at  70 Toledo 15 96.4% 181
2011/09/24  56 Tulsa 21 at   5 Boise St. 41 89.8% 162
2011/10/01  58 Nevada 10 at   6 Boise St. 30 91.0% 159
2011/10/07   7 Boise St. 57 at  75 Fresno St. 7 91.9% 161
2011/10/15   7 Boise St. 63 at 106 Colorado St. 13 98.1% 161
2011/10/22  54 Air Force 17 at   7 Boise St. 42 90.0% 166
2011/11/05   7 Boise St. 52 at 120 UNLV 17 98.7% 167
2011/11/12   8 TCU 27 at   7 Boise St. 31 77.9% 168
2011/11/19   7 Boise St. 35 at  59 SDSU 21 92.3% 168
2011/11/26 104 Wyoming 7 at   7 Boise St. 55 98.2% 168
2011/12/03 117 New Mexico 6 at   7 Boise St. 63 99.3% 168


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 77.9%
Notes: It's unlikely that the Broncos will make the big game, but they are more likely than not to go undefeated. TCU is the only remaining team that should even challenge Boise.


Oklahoma Sooners
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.966 5 0.544 23 24.7 7 8.9 5 171.0 19

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  58 Tulsa 14 at   7 Oklahoma 47 85.6% 191
2011/09/17   5 Oklahoma 23 at  12 Florida St. 13 28.1% 150
2011/09/24  30 Missouri 28 at   8 Oklahoma 38 76.8% 194
2011/10/01  91 Ball St. 6 at   8 Oklahoma 62 97.6% 182
2011/10/08  31 Texas 17 vs   6 Oklahoma 55 73.8% 179
2011/10/15   5 Oklahoma 47 at  91 Kansas 17 95.8% 183
2011/10/22  44 Texas Tech 17 at   5 Oklahoma 41 87.9% 175
2011/10/29   5 Oklahoma 35 at  34 Kansas St. 21 84.6% 168
2011/11/05  15 Texas A&M 21 at   5 Oklahoma 35 78.7% 171
2011/11/19   5 Oklahoma 42 at  43 Baylor 27 87.3% 171
2011/11/26  83 Iowa St. 17 at   5 Oklahoma 48 95.1% 169
2011/12/03   5 Oklahoma 28 at   9 Oklahoma St. 27 75.9% 171


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-2.7
Most difficult game left: December 3, at Oklahoma State Cowboys, 75.9%
Notes: It's conceivable that Oklahoma loses before their game against Oklahoma State, but it's unlikely. Undefeated Kansas State is little more than a speed bump on the road to Stillwater.


Wisconsin Badgers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.991 3 0.535 38 28.5 1 9.6 7 162.1 106

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/01 106 UNLV 17 at  11 Wisconsin 51 94.7% 146
2011/09/10  65 Oregon St. 0 at   7 Wisconsin 35 78.4% 153
2011/09/17   3 Wisconsin 49 vs  64 Northern Ill. 7 71.8% 160
2011/10/01  26 Nebraska 17 at   2 Wisconsin 48 66.2% 159
2011/10/15  95 Indiana 7 at   3 Wisconsin 59 95.3% 162
2011/10/22   3 Wisconsin 31 at  20 Michigan St. 17 72.7% 164
2011/10/29   3 Wisconsin 31 at  18 Ohio St. 17 72.3% 160
2011/11/05  79 Purdue 13 at   3 Wisconsin 48 94.5% 167
2011/11/12   3 Wisconsin 48 at 111 Minnesota 17 96.9% 164
2011/11/19   3 Wisconsin 31 at  31 Illinois 20 84.0% 165
2011/11/26  37 Penn State 14 at   3 Wisconsin 35 81.3% 162


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.0
Most difficult game left: October 29, at Ohio State Buckeyes, 72.3%
Notes: The next two weeks should be telling for Wisconsin, as they go on the road to face Michigan State and Ohio State. Neither offense should hold a candle to the #1 rated Badgers but their defenses may keep it close.


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.983 4 0.542 26 27.4 2 8.9 4 167.1 53

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 107 SJSU 3 at   1 Stanford 57 98.2% 162
2011/09/10   1 Stanford 44 at  82 Duke 14 93.3% 155
2011/09/17   1 Stanford 37 at  37 Arizona 10 79.2% 155
2011/10/01  75 UCLA 19 at   3 Stanford 45 94.7% 152
2011/10/08  67 Colorado 7 at   4 Stanford 48 94.9% 155
2011/10/15   4 Stanford 44 at  66 Washington St. 14 90.8% 157
2011/10/22  30 Washington 20 at   4 Stanford 41 88.3% 167
2011/10/29   4 Stanford 38 at  27 USC 24 86.4% 166
2011/11/05   4 Stanford 41 at  81 Oregon St. 20 94.6% 169
2011/11/12   6 Oregon 28 at   4 Stanford 35 55.1% 171
2011/11/19  57 California 13 at   4 Stanford 42 91.4% 167
2011/11/26  17 Notre Dame 20 at   4 Stanford 38 81.5% 166


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.4
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 55.1%
Notes: They say that Stanford sold out of tickets for this weekend's game against Washington. Maybe so, but expect only 75% of the butts to show up in the seats. Oregon lies in waiting for the Cardinal.


LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.992 2 0.550 14 22.3 11 6.8 2 160.7 111

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03   9 Oregon 27 vs   8 LSU 40 56.5% 184
2011/09/15   8 LSU 19 at  25 Mississippi St. 6 64.1% 150
2011/09/24   7 LSU 47 at  26 West Virginia 21 35.3% 188
2011/10/01  57 Kentucky 7 at   4 LSU 35 84.7% 162
2011/10/08  13 Florida 11 at   3 LSU 41 54.8% 141
2011/10/15   2 LSU 38 at  29 Tennessee 7 82.7% 143
2011/10/22  24 Auburn 17 at   2 LSU 31 87.0% 160
2011/11/05   2 LSU 24 at   1 Alabama 28 24.5% 159
2011/11/12 103 Western Kentucky 3 at   2 LSU 45 98.2% 160
2011/11/19   2 LSU 38 at  69 Mississippi 14 94.0% 161
2011/11/25  13 Arkansas 20 at   2 LSU 35 76.5% 163


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-6.6
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 24.5%
Notes: LSU is a very good football team with the misfortune of playing in Tuscaloosa on November 5. Suspensions may make their chances even worse.


Long Shots

Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.924 10 0.527 55 20.0 25 12.2 25 166.6 62

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  76 Troy 19 at  38 Clemson 43 80.0% 180
2011/09/17  16 Auburn 24 at  27 Clemson 38 45.7% 181
2011/09/24  12 Florida St. 30 at  16 Clemson 35 28.3% 166
2011/10/01  11 Clemson 23 at  19 Virginia Tech 3 37.6% 162
2011/10/08  91 Boston College 14 at  10 Clemson 36 84.8% 159
2011/10/15  10 Clemson 56 at  65 Maryland 45 77.3% 194
2011/10/22  42 North Carolina 21 at  10 Clemson 31 67.0% 164
2011/10/29  10 Clemson 28 at  39 Georgia Tech 24 62.1% 165
2011/11/12  82 Wake Forest 21 at  10 Clemson 38 83.7% 167
2011/11/19  10 Clemson 34 at  72 North Carolina St. 24 83.8% 166
2011/11/26  10 Clemson 24 at  11 South Carolina 28 43.1% 162


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-8.0
Most difficult game left: November 26, at South Carolina Gamecocks, 43.1%
Notes: No one expects the Spanish Inquisition or the Tigers to go undefeated. However, Stephen Garcia's dismissal and Marcus Lattimore's ACL tear makes it more likely than the odds indicate. Since this is an ACC team, expect Clemson to lose to NC State.


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.541 55 0.475 82 20.3 23 17.4 72 175.1 4

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  66 UCLA 34 at  67 Houston 38 50.7% 170
2011/09/10  63 Houston 48 at 111 North Texas 23 68.4% 186
2011/09/17  67 Houston 35 at  79 LA Tech 34 64.5% 205
2011/09/29  64 Houston 49 at  95 UTEP 42 75.5% 178
2011/10/08  93 East Carolina 3 at  57 Houston 56 56.0% 182
2011/10/22  99 Marshall 20 at  55 Houston 38 70.9% 170
2011/10/27  96 Rice 24 at  55 Houston 42 71.9% 172
2011/11/05  55 Houston 38 at 115 UAB 24 80.4% 169
2011/11/10  55 Houston 42 at 112 Tulane 24 83.3% 171
2011/11/19  50 SMU 31 at  55 Houston 32 54.4% 170
2011/11/25  55 Houston 31 at  63 Tulsa 34 42.9% 172


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-12.6
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 42.9%
Notes: The fact that Houston has only 1:12.6 odds of winning out despite playing nobody in the top 40 tells you all you need to know about the Cougars.


Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.941 9 0.552 12 25.9 6 14.1 44 172.6 9

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 113 LA-Lafayette 34 at  12 Oklahoma St. 61 94.4% 196
2011/09/08  32 Arizona 14 at  10 Oklahoma St. 37 53.2% 185
2011/09/18   9 Oklahoma St. 59 at  59 Tulsa 33 70.7% 202
2011/09/24  10 Oklahoma St. 30 at  14 Texas A&M 29 52.7% 199
2011/10/08  89 Kansas 28 at   9 Oklahoma St. 70 89.9% 186
2011/10/15   9 Oklahoma St. 38 at  35 Texas 26 52.3% 184
2011/10/22   9 Oklahoma St. 34 at  28 Missouri 27 63.8% 173
2011/10/29  43 Baylor 27 at   9 Oklahoma St. 42 68.5% 172
2011/11/05  34 Kansas St. 24 at   9 Oklahoma St. 38 63.6% 169
2011/11/12   9 Oklahoma St. 38 at  44 Texas Tech 27 69.8% 176
2011/11/18   9 Oklahoma St. 42 at  83 Iowa St. 24 86.0% 170
2011/12/03   5 Oklahoma 28 at   9 Oklahoma St. 27 24.1% 171


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-24.9
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 24.1%
Notes: The BCS computers love the Cowboys, but the Cowboys have a really tough stretch to the finish line.


Absolute Phonies

Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.745 34 0.528 52 20.9 20 14.3 46 166.2 68

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/17 106 Kent St. 0 at  50 Kansas St. 37 83.5% 153
2011/09/24  42 Kansas St. 28 at  40 Miami-FL 24 44.9% 144
2011/10/01  50 Baylor 35 at  44 Kansas St. 36 57.8% 168
2011/10/08  29 Missouri 17 at  38 Kansas St. 24 45.4% 161
2011/10/15  34 Kansas St. 41 at  44 Texas Tech 34 45.2% 193
2011/10/22  34 Kansas St. 42 at  91 Kansas 24 83.0% 169
2011/10/29   5 Oklahoma 35 at  34 Kansas St. 21 15.4% 168
2011/11/05  34 Kansas St. 24 at   9 Oklahoma St. 38 36.4% 169
2011/11/12  15 Texas A&M 31 at  34 Kansas St. 28 40.2% 168
2011/11/19  34 Kansas St. 28 at  35 Texas 31 46.4% 167
2011/12/03  83 Iowa St. 20 at  34 Kansas St. 38 77.9% 167


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-147.9
Most difficult game left: October 29, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 15.4%
Notes: Yes, we get it. Bill Snyder finds ways to win. Now, he has to find a way to beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas A&M.


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