Friday, October 14, 2011

Week 7: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2011-10-09




Legitimate Title Contenders

Boise State Broncos
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.929 2 0.499 62 30.3 5 10.9 3 164.1 76

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  23 Georgia 21 vs   2 Boise St. 35 84.9%
2011/09/16   2 Boise St. 40 at  65 Toledo 15 89.8%
2011/09/24  52 Tulsa 21 at   2 Boise St. 41 93.1%
2011/10/01  45 Nevada 10 at   2 Boise St. 30 91.2%
2011/10/07   2 Boise St. 57 at  72 Fresno St. 7 90.9%
2011/10/15   2 Boise St. 46 at 109 Colorado St. 20 98.2%
2011/10/22  58 Air Force 24 at   2 Boise St. 43 95.2%
2011/11/05   2 Boise St. 47 at 112 UNLV 20 98.6%
2011/11/12  10 TCU 30 at   2 Boise St. 37 78.7%
2011/11/19   2 Boise St. 40 at  70 SDSU 23 94.5%
2011/11/26 110 Wyoming 19 at   2 Boise St. 46 98.7%
2011/12/03 118 New Mexico 17 at   2 Boise St. 49 99.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.5
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 78.7%
Notes: Let the howls of SEC rage continue. Not a real conference! Schedule someone good! The Smurfs couldn't play a real SEC schedule! The bottom line is that Boise appears to be legit, and appears to be headed towards another undefeated season.


Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.966 1 0.595 27 34.2 1 8.9 1 154.2 120

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03 100 Kent St. 7 at   3 Alabama 48 98.6%
2011/09/10   2 Alabama 27 at  33 Penn State 11 79.5%
2011/09/17 106 North Texas 0 at   1 Alabama 41 99.1%
2011/09/24  12 Arkansas 14 at   1 Alabama 38 86.1%
2011/10/01   1 Alabama 38 at   3 Florida 10 58.5%
2011/10/08  86 Vanderbilt 0 at   1 Alabama 34 98.5%
2011/10/15   1 Alabama 43 at  72 Mississippi 23 96.9%
2011/10/22  32 Tennessee 24 at   1 Alabama 43 95.8%
2011/11/05   3 LSU 32 at   1 Alabama 36 72.9%
2011/11/12   1 Alabama 39 at  45 Mississippi St. 21 94.1%
2011/11/26   1 Alabama 42 at  27 Auburn 28 91.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.7
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs LSU Tigers, 72.9%
Notes: The best "real" team here, the Crimson Tide have yet to be seriously challenged. Assuming they don't get caught looking past anyone, their only real challenge this year will be from LSU in a few weeks. Until then it's anyone's guess as to whether a team can hang more than 14 on this defense.


Oklahoma Sooners
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.909 5 0.603 23 27.1 9 10.8 2 180.1 5

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  47 Tulsa 14 at   7 Oklahoma 47 88.3%
2011/09/17   6 Oklahoma 23 at  12 Florida St. 13 51.7%
2011/09/24  26 Missouri 28 at   4 Oklahoma 38 82.5%
2011/10/01 102 Ball St. 6 at   6 Oklahoma 62 97.6%
2011/10/08  22 Texas 17 vs   4 Oklahoma 55 75.1%
2011/10/15   5 Oklahoma 44 at  90 Kansas 26 94.1%
2011/10/22  43 Texas Tech 28 at   5 Oklahoma 43 91.0%
2011/10/29   5 Oklahoma 37 at  30 Kansas St. 32 74.3%
2011/11/05  16 Texas A&M 30 at   5 Oklahoma 37 77.0%
2011/11/19   5 Oklahoma 41 at  46 Baylor 30 87.3%
2011/11/26  75 Iowa St. 24 at   5 Oklahoma 41 94.0%
2011/12/03   5 Oklahoma 38 at  15 Oklahoma St. 33 73.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.4
Most difficult game left: December 3, at Oklahoma State Cowboys, 73.5%
Notes: In many ways the opposite of Alabama, Oklahoma is fast, flashy, and won't hesitate to hang 60 on you. The flip side of this is that the more the Sooners continue to thrash legitimate teams, the better the Seminoles look in retrospect for holding Oklahoma below 30.


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.914 4 0.489 69 31.0 4 12.0 6 160.0 102

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03 115 SJSU 3 at   6 Stanford 57 98.8%
2011/09/10   6 Stanford 44 at  90 Duke 14 91.4%
2011/09/17   5 Stanford 37 at  40 Arizona 10 76.6%
2011/10/01  76 UCLA 19 at   4 Stanford 45 95.3%
2011/10/08  76 Colorado 7 at   5 Stanford 48 95.2%
2011/10/15   4 Stanford 41 at  82 Washington St. 24 93.1%
2011/10/22  48 Washington 26 at   4 Stanford 42 92.6%
2011/10/29   4 Stanford 37 at  33 USC 29 77.0%
2011/11/05   4 Stanford 39 at  59 Oregon St. 24 89.6%
2011/11/12   7 Oregon 33 at   4 Stanford 38 64.0%
2011/11/19  57 California 24 at   4 Stanford 40 90.8%
2011/11/26  12 Notre Dame 29 at   4 Stanford 36 73.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.9
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 64.0%
Notes: Another team that continues to plow through their conference schedule, Stanford is in the unfortunate position of being on the outside looking in and waiting for one of the top teams to stumble.


LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.927 3 0.691 2 32.8 2 11.9 5 158.7 109

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03   5 Oregon 27 vs   9 LSU 40 45.4%
2011/09/15   7 LSU 19 at  35 Mississippi St. 6 69.4%
2011/09/24   5 LSU 47 at  21 West Virginia 21 64.4%
2011/10/01  62 Kentucky 7 at   5 LSU 35 93.0%
2011/10/08   7 Florida 11 at   3 LSU 41 66.6%
2011/10/15   3 LSU 39 at  32 Tennessee 29 81.4%
2011/10/22  27 Auburn 30 at   3 LSU 43 88.0%
2011/11/05   3 LSU 32 at   1 Alabama 36 27.1%
2011/11/12 106 Western Kentucky 20 at   3 LSU 49 98.7%
2011/11/19   3 LSU 44 at  72 Mississippi 24 95.2%
2011/11/25  11 Arkansas 33 at   3 LSU 40 76.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-7.2
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 27.1%
Notes: Still the top team in the AP poll, LSU did little to improve their odds against Alabama. The good news for the Tigers is that if they can get past the Crimson Tide on the 5th, their only real remaining challenge will be Arkansas in their season closer. The bad news is that the game is at Alabama and the Tide are still 3-to-1 favorites.


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.548 52 0.358 107 22.7 32 21.0 75 179.6 6

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  78 UCLA 34 at  63 Houston 38 74.5%
2011/09/10  65 Houston 48 at 109 North Texas 23 73.3%
2011/09/17  63 Houston 35 at  77 LA Tech 34 51.2%
2011/09/29  63 Houston 49 at  96 UTEP 42 62.1%
2011/10/08  80 East Carolina 3 at  66 Houston 56 67.1%
2011/10/22  92 Marshall 28 at  52 Houston 38 84.3%
2011/10/27  97 Rice 31 at  52 Houston 43 85.0%
2011/11/05  52 Houston 42 at 114 UAB 29 87.0%
2011/11/10  52 Houston 43 at 104 Tulane 32 81.1%
2011/11/19  63 SMU 34 at  52 Houston 35 55.4%
2011/11/25  52 Houston 36 at  49 Tulsa 38 48.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-7.4
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 48.3%
Notes: What are they still doing here?


Wisconsin Badgers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.878 6 0.506 59 31.6 3 14.3 17 158.6 110

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/01 107 UNLV 17 at  14 Wisconsin 51 96.5%
2011/09/10  40 Oregon St. 0 at  15 Wisconsin 35 79.4%
2011/09/17  13 Wisconsin 49 vs  47 Northern Ill. 7 76.3%
2011/10/01  17 Nebraska 17 at   7 Wisconsin 48 73.9%
2011/10/15  95 Indiana 24 at   6 Wisconsin 47 96.7%
2011/10/22   6 Wisconsin 34 at  21 Michigan St. 31 57.5%
2011/10/29   6 Wisconsin 31 at   9 Ohio St. 33 48.1%
2011/11/05  73 Purdue 24 at   6 Wisconsin 42 93.0%
2011/11/12   6 Wisconsin 45 at 101 Minnesota 24 95.6%
2011/11/19   6 Wisconsin 39 at  36 Illinois 29 79.4%
2011/11/26  24 Penn State 26 at   6 Wisconsin 35 71.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-7.5
Most difficult game left: October 29, at Ohio State Buckeyes, 48.1%
Notes: The Badgers' odds sink and swim with the Buckeyes, and the good news is that Wisconsin looks set to continue rising. Michigan State and Penn State still loom on the horizon, though.


Long Shots

Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.772 19 0.608 20 22.6 33 13.9 11 165.7 64

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  68 Troy 19 at  34 Clemson 43 80.6%
2011/09/17  14 Auburn 24 at  26 Clemson 38 47.7%
2011/09/24  13 Florida St. 30 at  28 Clemson 35 49.2%
2011/10/01  23 Clemson 23 at  11 Virginia Tech 3 26.8%
2011/10/08  88 Boston College 14 at  13 Clemson 36 92.0%
2011/10/15  19 Clemson 32 at  55 Maryland 28 67.3%
2011/10/22  41 North Carolina 26 at  19 Clemson 33 76.3%
2011/10/29  19 Clemson 34 at  31 Georgia Tech 32 50.4%
2011/11/12  71 Wake Forest 26 at  19 Clemson 37 84.9%
2011/11/19  19 Clemson 35 at  54 North Carolina St. 29 74.5%
2011/11/26  19 Clemson 31 at  18 South Carolina 32 49.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-12.2
Most difficult game left: November 26, at South Carolina Gamecocks, 49.9%
Notes: The AP says this is a top 10 team. I'm not convinced. Enjoy the ride, though.


Michigan Wolverines
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.783 14 0.466 74 27.5 8 16.5 34 161.2 97

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  67 Western Michigan 10 at  62 Michigan 34 67.8%
2011/09/10  28 Notre Dame 31 at  39 Michigan 35 54.9%
2011/09/17 116 Eastern Michigan 3 at  37 Michigan 31 96.3%
2011/09/24  59 SDSU 7 at  31 Michigan 28 75.8%
2011/10/01  79 Minnesota 0 at  29 Michigan 58 86.3%
2011/10/08  12 Michigan 42 at  68 Northwestern 24 77.0%
2011/10/15  14 Michigan 31 at  21 Michigan St. 33 42.8%
2011/10/29  73 Purdue 25 at  14 Michigan 40 90.0%
2011/11/05  14 Michigan 35 at  35 Iowa 31 60.8%
2011/11/12  14 Michigan 36 at  36 Illinois 32 61.8%
2011/11/19  22 Nebraska 33 at  14 Michigan 35 53.3%
2011/11/26   9 Ohio St. 32 at  14 Michigan 30 42.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-30.4
Most difficult game left: November 26, vs Ohio State Buckeyes, 42.7%
Notes: This appeal is still pending.


Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.782 15 0.532 50 25.8 17 15.5 21 181.6 3

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03 110 LA-Lafayette 34 at  16 Oklahoma St. 61 96.7%
2011/09/08  34 Arizona 14 at  22 Oklahoma St. 37 69.2%
2011/09/18  15 Oklahoma St. 59 at  55 Tulsa 33 66.1%
2011/09/24  17 Oklahoma St. 30 at  14 Texas A&M 29 38.3%
2011/10/08  89 Kansas 28 at  18 Oklahoma St. 70 91.8%
2011/10/15  15 Oklahoma St. 34 at  29 Texas 33 51.5%
2011/10/22  15 Oklahoma St. 32 at  26 Missouri 34 44.3%
2011/10/29  46 Baylor 32 at  15 Oklahoma St. 42 79.9%
2011/11/05  30 Kansas St. 34 at  15 Oklahoma St. 38 66.5%
2011/11/12  15 Oklahoma St. 39 at  43 Texas Tech 34 65.8%
2011/11/18  15 Oklahoma St. 40 at  75 Iowa St. 28 85.1%
2011/12/03   5 Oklahoma 38 at  15 Oklahoma St. 33 26.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-55.6
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 26.5%
Notes: Despite their dismantling of Kansas and their top-10 ranking, the Cowboys very much remain a second-tier team in the eyes of TFG. The good news is that Texas won't be quite as fearsome as originally thought. The bad news is that Oklahoma might be even worse news.


Absolute Phonies

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.674 31 0.497 64 26.8 13 20.0 67 157.3 115

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/10  56 Georgia Tech 49 at  97 Middle Tenn. 21 66.4%
2011/09/17  86 Kansas 24 at  43 Georgia Tech 66 81.0%
2011/09/24  42 North Carolina 28 at  37 Georgia Tech 35 64.9%
2011/10/01  38 Georgia Tech 45 at  58 North Carolina St. 35 57.3%
2011/10/08  57 Maryland 16 at  34 Georgia Tech 21 73.4%
2011/10/15  31 Georgia Tech 37 at  85 Virginia 30 74.1%
2011/10/22  31 Georgia Tech 33 at  28 Miami-FL 37 33.4%
2011/10/29  19 Clemson 34 at  31 Georgia Tech 32 49.6%
2011/11/10  13 Virginia Tech 34 at  31 Georgia Tech 32 39.1%
2011/11/19  31 Georgia Tech 39 at  80 Duke 30 77.8%
2011/11/26  17 Georgia 37 at  31 Georgia Tech 34 37.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-71.2
Most difficult game left: October 22, at Miami Hurricanes, 33.4%
Notes: From 100-to-1 to 71-to-1. Still not buying it.


Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.682 30 0.542 41 26.0 16 19.1 57 157.4 114

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/17 104 Kent St. 0 at  57 Kansas St. 37 89.0%
2011/09/24  38 Kansas St. 28 at  15 Miami-FL 24 25.3%
2011/10/01  46 Baylor 35 at  36 Kansas St. 36 68.7%
2011/10/08  23 Missouri 17 at  35 Kansas St. 24 49.3%
2011/10/15  30 Kansas St. 35 at  43 Texas Tech 37 48.5%
2011/10/22  30 Kansas St. 40 at  90 Kansas 32 75.6%
2011/10/29   5 Oklahoma 37 at  30 Kansas St. 32 25.7%
2011/11/05  30 Kansas St. 34 at  15 Oklahoma St. 38 33.5%
2011/11/12  16 Texas A&M 35 at  30 Kansas St. 34 42.0%
2011/11/19  30 Kansas St. 32 at  29 Texas 34 48.1%
2011/12/03  75 Iowa St. 29 at  30 Kansas St. 37 77.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-202.9
Most difficult game left: October 29, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 25.7%
Notes: Between Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State, at least two are going to lose. Put your money on the Wildcats to fall short.


Illinois Fighting Illini
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.652 36 0.493 66 22.3 39 17.3 37 166.8 57

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  88 Arkansas St. 15 at  40 Illinois 33 85.6%
2011/09/17  33 Arizona St. 14 at  34 Illinois 17 59.8%
2011/09/24  72 Western Michigan 20 at  34 Illinois 23 79.8%
2011/10/01  75 Northwestern 35 at  35 Illinois 38 81.3%
2011/10/08  38 Illinois 41 at  97 Indiana 20 77.9%
2011/10/15   9 Ohio St. 31 at  36 Illinois 29 36.0%
2011/10/22  36 Illinois 32 at  73 Purdue 29 64.6%
2011/10/29  36 Illinois 26 at  24 Penn State 30 28.5%
2011/11/12  14 Michigan 36 at  36 Illinois 32 38.2%
2011/11/19   6 Wisconsin 39 at  36 Illinois 29 20.6%
2011/11/26  36 Illinois 39 at 101 Minnesota 27 86.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-220.6
Most difficult game left: November 19, vs Wisconsin Badgers, 20.6%
Notes: Still not convinced.

No longer perfect: Texas, Texas Tech.


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