Week 7: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG

Odds as of games through 2011-10-09

Legitimate Title Contenders

Boise State Broncos
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.929	2	0.499	62	30.3	5	10.9	3	164.1	76

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	23	Georgia	21	vs	2	Boise St.	35	84.9%
2011/09/16	2	Boise St.	40	at	65	Toledo	15	89.8%
2011/09/24	52	Tulsa	21	at	2	Boise St.	41	93.1%
2011/10/01	45	Nevada	10	at	2	Boise St.	30	91.2%
2011/10/07	2	Boise St.	57	at	72	Fresno St.	7	90.9%
2011/10/15	2	Boise St.	46	at	109	Colorado St.	20	98.2%
2011/10/22	58	Air Force	24	at	2	Boise St.	43	95.2%
2011/11/05	2	Boise St.	47	at	112	UNLV	20	98.6%
2011/11/12	10	TCU	30	at	2	Boise St.	37	78.7%
2011/11/19	2	Boise St.	40	at	70	SDSU	23	94.5%
2011/11/26	110	Wyoming	19	at	2	Boise St.	46	98.7%
2011/12/03	118	New Mexico	17	at	2	Boise St.	49	99.4%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.5
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 78.7%
Notes: Let the howls of SEC rage continue. Not a real conference! Schedule someone good! The Smurfs couldn't play a real SEC schedule! The bottom line is that Boise appears to be legit, and appears to be headed towards another undefeated season.

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.966	1	0.595	27	34.2	1	8.9	1	154.2	120

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	100	Kent St.	7	at	3	Alabama	48	98.6%
2011/09/10	2	Alabama	27	at	33	Penn State	11	79.5%
2011/09/17	106	North Texas	0	at	1	Alabama	41	99.1%
2011/09/24	12	Arkansas	14	at	1	Alabama	38	86.1%
2011/10/01	1	Alabama	38	at	3	Florida	10	58.5%
2011/10/08	86	Vanderbilt	0	at	1	Alabama	34	98.5%
2011/10/15	1	Alabama	43	at	72	Mississippi	23	96.9%
2011/10/22	32	Tennessee	24	at	1	Alabama	43	95.8%
2011/11/05	3	LSU	32	at	1	Alabama	36	72.9%
2011/11/12	1	Alabama	39	at	45	Mississippi St.	21	94.1%
2011/11/26	1	Alabama	42	at	27	Auburn	28	91.3%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.7
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs LSU Tigers, 72.9%
Notes: The best "real" team here, the Crimson Tide have yet to be seriously challenged. Assuming they don't get caught looking past anyone, their only real challenge this year will be from LSU in a few weeks. Until then it's anyone's guess as to whether a team can hang more than 14 on this defense.

Oklahoma Sooners
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.909	5	0.603	23	27.1	9	10.8	2	180.1	5

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	47	Tulsa	14	at	7	Oklahoma	47	88.3%
2011/09/17	6	Oklahoma	23	at	12	Florida St.	13	51.7%
2011/09/24	26	Missouri	28	at	4	Oklahoma	38	82.5%
2011/10/01	102	Ball St.	6	at	6	Oklahoma	62	97.6%
2011/10/08	22	Texas	17	vs	4	Oklahoma	55	75.1%
2011/10/15	5	Oklahoma	44	at	90	Kansas	26	94.1%
2011/10/22	43	Texas Tech	28	at	5	Oklahoma	43	91.0%
2011/10/29	5	Oklahoma	37	at	30	Kansas St.	32	74.3%
2011/11/05	16	Texas A&M	30	at	5	Oklahoma	37	77.0%
2011/11/19	5	Oklahoma	41	at	46	Baylor	30	87.3%
2011/11/26	75	Iowa St.	24	at	5	Oklahoma	41	94.0%
2011/12/03	5	Oklahoma	38	at	15	Oklahoma St.	33	73.5%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.4
Most difficult game left: December 3, at Oklahoma State Cowboys, 73.5%
Notes: In many ways the opposite of Alabama, Oklahoma is fast, flashy, and won't hesitate to hang 60 on you. The flip side of this is that the more the Sooners continue to thrash legitimate teams, the better the Seminoles look in retrospect for holding Oklahoma below 30.

Second-Tier Hopefuls

Stanford Cardinal
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.914	4	0.489	69	31.0	4	12.0	6	160.0	102

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	115	SJSU	3	at	6	Stanford	57	98.8%
2011/09/10	6	Stanford	44	at	90	Duke	14	91.4%
2011/09/17	5	Stanford	37	at	40	Arizona	10	76.6%
2011/10/01	76	UCLA	19	at	4	Stanford	45	95.3%
2011/10/08	76	Colorado	7	at	5	Stanford	48	95.2%
2011/10/15	4	Stanford	41	at	82	Washington St.	24	93.1%
2011/10/22	48	Washington	26	at	4	Stanford	42	92.6%
2011/10/29	4	Stanford	37	at	33	USC	29	77.0%
2011/11/05	4	Stanford	39	at	59	Oregon St.	24	89.6%
2011/11/12	7	Oregon	33	at	4	Stanford	38	64.0%
2011/11/19	57	California	24	at	4	Stanford	40	90.8%
2011/11/26	12	Notre Dame	29	at	4	Stanford	36	73.3%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.9
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 64.0%
Notes: Another team that continues to plow through their conference schedule, Stanford is in the unfortunate position of being on the outside looking in and waiting for one of the top teams to stumble.

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.927	3	0.691	2	32.8	2	11.9	5	158.7	109

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	5	Oregon	27	vs	9	LSU	40	45.4%
2011/09/15	7	LSU	19	at	35	Mississippi St.	6	69.4%
2011/09/24	5	LSU	47	at	21	West Virginia	21	64.4%
2011/10/01	62	Kentucky	7	at	5	LSU	35	93.0%
2011/10/08	7	Florida	11	at	3	LSU	41	66.6%
2011/10/15	3	LSU	39	at	32	Tennessee	29	81.4%
2011/10/22	27	Auburn	30	at	3	LSU	43	88.0%
2011/11/05	3	LSU	32	at	1	Alabama	36	27.1%
2011/11/12	106	Western Kentucky	20	at	3	LSU	49	98.7%
2011/11/19	3	LSU	44	at	72	Mississippi	24	95.2%
2011/11/25	11	Arkansas	33	at	3	LSU	40	76.0%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-7.2
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 27.1%
Notes: Still the top team in the AP poll, LSU did little to improve their odds against Alabama. The good news for the Tigers is that if they can get past the Crimson Tide on the 5th, their only real remaining challenge will be Arkansas in their season closer. The bad news is that the game is at Alabama and the Tide are still 3-to-1 favorites.

Houston Cougars
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.548	52	0.358	107	22.7	32	21.0	75	179.6	6

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	78	UCLA	34	at	63	Houston	38	74.5%
2011/09/10	65	Houston	48	at	109	North Texas	23	73.3%
2011/09/17	63	Houston	35	at	77	LA Tech	34	51.2%
2011/09/29	63	Houston	49	at	96	UTEP	42	62.1%
2011/10/08	80	East Carolina	3	at	66	Houston	56	67.1%
2011/10/22	92	Marshall	28	at	52	Houston	38	84.3%
2011/10/27	97	Rice	31	at	52	Houston	43	85.0%
2011/11/05	52	Houston	42	at	114	UAB	29	87.0%
2011/11/10	52	Houston	43	at	104	Tulane	32	81.1%
2011/11/19	63	SMU	34	at	52	Houston	35	55.4%
2011/11/25	52	Houston	36	at	49	Tulsa	38	48.3%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-7.4
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 48.3%
Notes: What are they still doing here?

Wisconsin Badgers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.878	6	0.506	59	31.6	3	14.3	17	158.6	110

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/01	107	UNLV	17	at	14	Wisconsin	51	96.5%
2011/09/10	40	Oregon St.	0	at	15	Wisconsin	35	79.4%
2011/09/17	13	Wisconsin	49	vs	47	Northern Ill.	7	76.3%
2011/10/01	17	Nebraska	17	at	7	Wisconsin	48	73.9%
2011/10/15	95	Indiana	24	at	6	Wisconsin	47	96.7%
2011/10/22	6	Wisconsin	34	at	21	Michigan St.	31	57.5%
2011/10/29	6	Wisconsin	31	at	9	Ohio St.	33	48.1%
2011/11/05	73	Purdue	24	at	6	Wisconsin	42	93.0%
2011/11/12	6	Wisconsin	45	at	101	Minnesota	24	95.6%
2011/11/19	6	Wisconsin	39	at	36	Illinois	29	79.4%
2011/11/26	24	Penn State	26	at	6	Wisconsin	35	71.0%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-7.5
Most difficult game left: October 29, at Ohio State Buckeyes, 48.1%
Notes: The Badgers' odds sink and swim with the Buckeyes, and the good news is that Wisconsin looks set to continue rising. Michigan State and Penn State still loom on the horizon, though.

Long Shots

Clemson Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.772	19	0.608	20	22.6	33	13.9	11	165.7	64

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	68	Troy	19	at	34	Clemson	43	80.6%
2011/09/17	14	Auburn	24	at	26	Clemson	38	47.7%
2011/09/24	13	Florida St.	30	at	28	Clemson	35	49.2%
2011/10/01	23	Clemson	23	at	11	Virginia Tech	3	26.8%
2011/10/08	88	Boston College	14	at	13	Clemson	36	92.0%
2011/10/15	19	Clemson	32	at	55	Maryland	28	67.3%
2011/10/22	41	North Carolina	26	at	19	Clemson	33	76.3%
2011/10/29	19	Clemson	34	at	31	Georgia Tech	32	50.4%
2011/11/12	71	Wake Forest	26	at	19	Clemson	37	84.9%
2011/11/19	19	Clemson	35	at	54	North Carolina St.	29	74.5%
2011/11/26	19	Clemson	31	at	18	South Carolina	32	49.9%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-12.2
Most difficult game left: November 26, at South Carolina Gamecocks, 49.9%
Notes: The AP says this is a top 10 team. I'm not convinced. Enjoy the ride, though.

Michigan Wolverines
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.783	14	0.466	74	27.5	8	16.5	34	161.2	97

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	67	Western Michigan	10	at	62	Michigan	34	67.8%
2011/09/10	28	Notre Dame	31	at	39	Michigan	35	54.9%
2011/09/17	116	Eastern Michigan	3	at	37	Michigan	31	96.3%
2011/09/24	59	SDSU	7	at	31	Michigan	28	75.8%
2011/10/01	79	Minnesota	0	at	29	Michigan	58	86.3%
2011/10/08	12	Michigan	42	at	68	Northwestern	24	77.0%
2011/10/15	14	Michigan	31	at	21	Michigan St.	33	42.8%
2011/10/29	73	Purdue	25	at	14	Michigan	40	90.0%
2011/11/05	14	Michigan	35	at	35	Iowa	31	60.8%
2011/11/12	14	Michigan	36	at	36	Illinois	32	61.8%
2011/11/19	22	Nebraska	33	at	14	Michigan	35	53.3%
2011/11/26	9	Ohio St.	32	at	14	Michigan	30	42.7%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-30.4
Most difficult game left: November 26, vs Ohio State Buckeyes, 42.7%
Notes: This appeal is still pending.

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.782	15	0.532	50	25.8	17	15.5	21	181.6	3

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	110	LA-Lafayette	34	at	16	Oklahoma St.	61	96.7%
2011/09/08	34	Arizona	14	at	22	Oklahoma St.	37	69.2%
2011/09/18	15	Oklahoma St.	59	at	55	Tulsa	33	66.1%
2011/09/24	17	Oklahoma St.	30	at	14	Texas A&M	29	38.3%
2011/10/08	89	Kansas	28	at	18	Oklahoma St.	70	91.8%
2011/10/15	15	Oklahoma St.	34	at	29	Texas	33	51.5%
2011/10/22	15	Oklahoma St.	32	at	26	Missouri	34	44.3%
2011/10/29	46	Baylor	32	at	15	Oklahoma St.	42	79.9%
2011/11/05	30	Kansas St.	34	at	15	Oklahoma St.	38	66.5%
2011/11/12	15	Oklahoma St.	39	at	43	Texas Tech	34	65.8%
2011/11/18	15	Oklahoma St.	40	at	75	Iowa St.	28	85.1%
2011/12/03	5	Oklahoma	38	at	15	Oklahoma St.	33	26.5%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-55.6
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 26.5%
Notes: Despite their dismantling of Kansas and their top-10 ranking, the Cowboys very much remain a second-tier team in the eyes of TFG. The good news is that Texas won't be quite as fearsome as originally thought. The bad news is that Oklahoma might be even worse news.

Absolute Phonies

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.674	31	0.497	64	26.8	13	20.0	67	157.3	115

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/10	56	Georgia Tech	49	at	97	Middle Tenn.	21	66.4%
2011/09/17	86	Kansas	24	at	43	Georgia Tech	66	81.0%
2011/09/24	42	North Carolina	28	at	37	Georgia Tech	35	64.9%
2011/10/01	38	Georgia Tech	45	at	58	North Carolina St.	35	57.3%
2011/10/08	57	Maryland	16	at	34	Georgia Tech	21	73.4%
2011/10/15	31	Georgia Tech	37	at	85	Virginia	30	74.1%
2011/10/22	31	Georgia Tech	33	at	28	Miami-FL	37	33.4%
2011/10/29	19	Clemson	34	at	31	Georgia Tech	32	49.6%
2011/11/10	13	Virginia Tech	34	at	31	Georgia Tech	32	39.1%
2011/11/19	31	Georgia Tech	39	at	80	Duke	30	77.8%
2011/11/26	17	Georgia	37	at	31	Georgia Tech	34	37.6%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-71.2
Most difficult game left: October 22, at Miami Hurricanes, 33.4%
Notes: From 100-to-1 to 71-to-1. Still not buying it.

Kansas State Wildcats
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.682	30	0.542	41	26.0	16	19.1	57	157.4	114

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/17	104	Kent St.	0	at	57	Kansas St.	37	89.0%
2011/09/24	38	Kansas St.	28	at	15	Miami-FL	24	25.3%
2011/10/01	46	Baylor	35	at	36	Kansas St.	36	68.7%
2011/10/08	23	Missouri	17	at	35	Kansas St.	24	49.3%
2011/10/15	30	Kansas St.	35	at	43	Texas Tech	37	48.5%
2011/10/22	30	Kansas St.	40	at	90	Kansas	32	75.6%
2011/10/29	5	Oklahoma	37	at	30	Kansas St.	32	25.7%
2011/11/05	30	Kansas St.	34	at	15	Oklahoma St.	38	33.5%
2011/11/12	16	Texas A&M	35	at	30	Kansas St.	34	42.0%
2011/11/19	30	Kansas St.	32	at	29	Texas	34	48.1%
2011/12/03	75	Iowa St.	29	at	30	Kansas St.	37	77.3%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-202.9
Most difficult game left: October 29, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 25.7%
Notes: Between Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State, at least two are going to lose. Put your money on the Wildcats to fall short.

Illinois Fighting Illini
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.652	36	0.493	66	22.3	39	17.3	37	166.8	57

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	88	Arkansas St.	15	at	40	Illinois	33	85.6%
2011/09/17	33	Arizona St.	14	at	34	Illinois	17	59.8%
2011/09/24	72	Western Michigan	20	at	34	Illinois	23	79.8%
2011/10/01	75	Northwestern	35	at	35	Illinois	38	81.3%
2011/10/08	38	Illinois	41	at	97	Indiana	20	77.9%
2011/10/15	9	Ohio St.	31	at	36	Illinois	29	36.0%
2011/10/22	36	Illinois	32	at	73	Purdue	29	64.6%
2011/10/29	36	Illinois	26	at	24	Penn State	30	28.5%
2011/11/12	14	Michigan	36	at	36	Illinois	32	38.2%
2011/11/19	6	Wisconsin	39	at	36	Illinois	29	20.6%
2011/11/26	36	Illinois	39	at	101	Minnesota	27	86.9%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-220.6
Most difficult game left: November 19, vs Wisconsin Badgers, 20.6%
Notes: Still not convinced.

No longer perfect: Texas, Texas Tech.

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