Week 17: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: FL-Atlantic (0.064); Oregon (0.036); LSU (0.022); Miami-OH (0.021); Boise State (0.018)

Biggest drops: UAB (-0.071); Hawaii (-0.024); Utah (-0.024); Tennessee (-0.021); Georgia (-0.019)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 16: Top 25 — TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Clemson  ( 11 - 0 )	0.973	0.459	73	26.8	5	7.0	1	161.8	101
2	--	Ohio State  ( 12 - 0 )	0.966	0.618	20	34.4	1	9.8	6	171.9	42
3	+1	Georgia  ( 10 - 1 )	0.948	0.613	24	23.0	16	7.7	2	159.2	112
4	-1	Alabama  ( 9 - 2 )	0.934	0.618	19	32.4	2	12.0	14	162.6	97
5	--	Utah  ( 10 - 1 )	0.926	0.486	68	24.5	11	9.5	5	153.4	126
6	+1	Wisconsin  ( 10 - 2 )	0.924	0.641	11	26.7	6	10.4	8	152.9	128
7	-1	Michigan  ( 9 - 3 )	0.913	0.688	6	25.7	7	10.6	9	165.4	80
8	+5	LSU  ( 11 - 0 )	0.901	0.657	9	30.6	3	13.3	19	171.6	43
9	-1	Penn State  ( 9 - 2 )	0.900	0.652	10	21.5	24	9.4	4	169.0	61
10	+2	Auburn  ( 8 - 3 )	0.887	0.748	2	22.5	17	10.4	7	177.7	16
11	-1	Florida  ( 8 - 2 )	0.886	0.660	8	24.9	9	11.5	12	158.9	114
12	-1	Notre Dame  ( 10 - 2 )	0.871	0.551	49	22.3	19	10.9	10	171.4	44
13	-4	Iowa  ( 9 - 3 )	0.858	0.625	16	17.3	59	8.8	3	160.3	110
14	--	Oregon  ( 9 - 2 )	0.841	0.516	60	21.7	23	11.6	13	170.9	48
15	--	Oklahoma  ( 10 - 1 )	0.803	0.571	42	29.4	4	17.4	62	161.8	100
16	+2	Appalachian State  ( 10 - 1 )	0.797	0.360	114	20.7	29	12.3	15	165.3	81
17	+2	Washington  ( 6 - 5 )	0.779	0.581	38	21.1	28	13.1	18	164.1	90
18	+6	Baylor  ( 10 - 1 )	0.771	0.518	57	20.0	39	12.7	16	176.4	20
19	-2	Minnesota  ( 9 - 2 )	0.758	0.568	43	24.8	10	16.1	46	156.5	121
20	+1	Memphis  ( 10 - 1 )	0.758	0.477	69	25.0	8	16.3	49	170.9	46
21	+2	UCF  ( 8 - 3 )	0.747	0.422	86	23.7	13	15.8	42	187.7	1
22	-6	Texas A&M  ( 6 - 5 )	0.737	0.698	4	20.4	34	13.8	23	165.1	83
23	-3	Boise State  ( 10 - 1 )	0.736	0.395	104	22.2	21	15.1	36	166.2	74
24	NA	Air Force  ( 9 - 2 )	0.711	0.444	80	22.2	20	15.8	40	150.1	130
25	NA	FL-Atlantic  ( 8 - 3 )	0.701	0.461	72	20.4	33	14.8	32	175.5	22

Rankings through games of 2019-12-01

New entries: Air Force, FL-Atlantic.

Dropped out: Iowa State, Navy.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 15: Top 25 — TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Clemson  ( 10 - 0 )	0.971	0.475	70	27.2	5	7.3	1	162.8	98
2	--	Ohio State  ( 11 - 0 )	0.965	0.568	45	32.9	1	9.5	6	171.0	49
3	--	Alabama  ( 9 - 1 )	0.947	0.583	35	31.2	2	10.6	10	161.6	103
4	--	Georgia  ( 9 - 1 )	0.944	0.657	10	22.7	16	7.9	2	157.6	117
5	--	Utah  ( 9 - 1 )	0.928	0.502	64	23.1	14	8.9	4	154.3	127
6	+1	Michigan  ( 9 - 2 )	0.927	0.637	14	25.7	7	9.9	8	164.8	82
7	-1	Wisconsin  ( 9 - 2 )	0.921	0.624	17	26.8	6	10.7	11	152.5	128
8	--	Penn State  ( 8 - 2 )	0.913	0.721	1	22.9	15	9.5	5	170.2	53
9	--	Iowa  ( 8 - 3 )	0.883	0.642	12	17.6	58	8.2	3	159.3	111
10	+1	Florida  ( 7 - 2 )	0.882	0.668	9	24.3	12	11.4	12	160.2	106
11	+3	Notre Dame  ( 9 - 2 )	0.881	0.567	46	22.4	20	10.5	9	169.5	61
12	--	Auburn  ( 7 - 3 )	0.878	0.702	4	20.3	32	9.7	7	176.9	20
13	-3	LSU  ( 10 - 0 )	0.877	0.640	13	30.0	3	14.3	26	172.0	42
14	-1	Oregon  ( 8 - 2 )	0.840	0.533	58	22.7	17	12.2	13	171.3	46
15	--	Oklahoma  ( 9 - 1 )	0.796	0.574	39	29.9	4	17.9	70	163.5	95
16	+2	Texas A&M  ( 6 - 4 )	0.787	0.655	11	22.0	25	13.5	20	165.4	75
17	-1	Minnesota  ( 9 - 1 )	0.777	0.504	62	25.4	8	15.9	45	155.7	123
18	+1	Appalachian State  ( 9 - 1 )	0.776	0.354	113	20.2	33	12.7	16	165.4	76
19	-2	Washington  ( 5 - 5 )	0.764	0.573	40	21.3	26	13.7	23	165.1	78
20	+2	Boise State  ( 9 - 1 )	0.753	0.400	99	22.2	22	14.6	32	167.6	69
21	NA	Memphis  ( 9 - 1 )	0.735	0.451	75	24.5	11	16.7	52	170.5	50
22	-2	Iowa State  ( 6 - 4 )	0.735	0.585	34	22.3	21	15.2	37	168.5	64
23	-2	UCF  ( 7 - 3 )	0.727	0.445	77	24.5	10	17.0	54	188.6	1
24	NA	Baylor  ( 9 - 1 )	0.711	0.554	49	18.8	43	13.4	19	176.0	23
25	NA	Navy  ( 7 - 2 )	0.707	0.499	65	22.6	18	16.2	47	156.8	118

Rankings through games of 2019-11-24

New entries: Memphis, Baylor, Navy.

Dropped out: Cincinnati, Indiana, FL-Atlantic.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 13: Top 25 — TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Ohio State  ( 9 - 0 )	0.981	0.605	30	34.8	1	7.9	3	168.6	65
2	--	Clemson  ( 9 - 0 )	0.961	0.468	74	25.9	6	7.8	2	164.4	87
3	+3	Georgia  ( 7 - 1 )	0.950	0.616	23	23.4	16	7.7	1	156.4	123
4	--	Alabama  ( 8 - 1 )	0.945	0.589	36	32.3	2	11.1	10	162.6	99
5	--	Wisconsin  ( 7 - 2 )	0.940	0.643	14	27.2	5	9.7	7	153.2	128
6	-3	Penn State  ( 7 - 1 )	0.935	0.674	9	23.9	12	8.8	5	170.2	57
7	--	Michigan  ( 7 - 2 )	0.912	0.650	13	24.2	11	10.1	8	166.4	80
8	--	Utah  ( 7 - 1 )	0.901	0.546	52	23.4	15	10.2	9	156.6	121
9	+1	LSU  ( 8 - 0 )	0.897	0.721	3	28.6	4	12.7	16	173.7	32
10	-1	Iowa  ( 6 - 3 )	0.895	0.639	15	18.7	48	8.3	4	159.2	108
11	--	Auburn  ( 7 - 2 )	0.888	0.665	10	20.9	29	9.6	6	174.9	25
12	+2	Florida  ( 6 - 2 )	0.882	0.707	5	25.5	7	12.0	12	159.7	106
13	-1	Oregon  ( 7 - 1 )	0.864	0.570	43	24.2	10	12.1	13	172.5	41
14	+2	Notre Dame  ( 7 - 2 )	0.834	0.553	47	21.0	28	11.5	11	168.1	71
15	-2	Oklahoma  ( 7 - 1 )	0.824	0.583	40	31.1	3	17.4	66	163.8	91
16	+2	Minnesota  ( 8 - 0 )	0.809	0.490	68	25.1	9	14.6	34	157.1	119
17	--	Washington  ( 5 - 4 )	0.799	0.602	31	22.2	22	13.2	19	164.3	90
18	-3	Appalachian State  ( 7 - 1 )	0.773	0.376	107	19.6	37	12.4	14	166.2	81
19	--	Iowa State  ( 4 - 4 )	0.772	0.620	21	23.3	17	14.7	36	165.1	85
20	+1	Navy  ( 6 - 1 )	0.751	0.434	84	22.5	20	14.9	38	157.5	116
21	-1	UCF  ( 6 - 3 )	0.745	0.453	81	25.1	8	16.8	54	186.3	1
22	+1	Texas A&M  ( 5 - 3 )	0.741	0.607	29	22.3	21	15.0	39	167.1	77
23	NA	Cincinnati  ( 8 - 1 )	0.739	0.465	75	18.8	47	12.7	15	168.7	64
24	NA	FL-Atlantic  ( 6 - 3 )	0.721	0.479	70	20.7	31	14.5	33	178.1	15
25	-3	Kansas State  ( 5 - 3 )	0.710	0.586	39	19.1	41	13.6	21	155.3	126

Rankings through games of 2019-11-10

New entries: Cincinnati, FL-Atlantic.

Dropped out: Indiana, Washington State.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 11: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Northern Ill. (0.145); Kentucky (0.120); FL-Atlantic (0.115); Middle Tenn. (0.115); Georgia Southern (0.085)

Biggest drops: California (-0.161); Liberty (-0.117); Missouri (-0.112); FIU (-0.107); South Carolina (-0.097)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 13: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: Ohio (0.102); Cincinnati (0.083); FL-Atlantic (0.063); LA-Monroe (0.061); Mississippi St. (0.061)

Biggest drops: LA Tech (-0.090); FIU (-0.065); Navy (-0.062); Minnesota (-0.061); South Florida (-0.045)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 4: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: Arizona St. (0.140); Fresno St. (0.134); Colorado (0.121); Hawaii (0.101); South Carolina (0.097)

Biggest drops: UTSA (-0.190); UAB (-0.121); UCLA (-0.119); FL-Atlantic (-0.118); Coastal Carolina (-0.093)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 3: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Colorado (0.222); Arizona St. (0.212); Vanderbilt (0.212); Minnesota (0.202); Washington St. (0.165)

Biggest drops: UTSA (-0.191); Troy (-0.189); FL-Atlantic (-0.182); New Mexico St. (-0.174); Idaho (-0.165)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 17: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Army (0.004); North Texas (0.002); Eastern Michigan (0.001)

Biggest drops: Navy (-0.002); Air Force (-0.001); FL-Atlantic (-0.001); SMU (-0.001)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 13: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Ohio (0.091); FL-Atlantic (0.075); Central Michigan (0.061); Kentucky (0.048); Miami-OH (0.047)

Biggest drops: Michigan St. (-0.089); Nebraska (-0.078); Arkansas St. (-0.077); Texas (-0.074); Tennessee (-0.072)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 10: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: FL-Atlantic (0.063); Kent St. (0.040); TCU (0.040); South Florida (0.039); Cincinnati (0.036)

Biggest drops: Temple (-0.065); South Carolina (-0.052); BYU (-0.039); Minnesota (-0.039); Kentucky (-0.037)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 2: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Tennessee (0.274); Western Kentucky (0.213); Texas (0.211); Temple (0.202); UTSA (0.192)

Biggest drops: North Texas (-0.266); Utah St. (-0.264); FL-Atlantic (-0.232); Fresno St. (-0.196); Vanderbilt (-0.192)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Tulane (0.098); Iowa St. (0.094); Western Kentucky (0.086); Arizona (0.081); FL-Atlantic (0.075)

Biggest drops: Kansas (-0.070); Oregon St. (-0.064); Ohio (-0.060); Rice (-0.060); Utah (-0.056)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 11: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Navy (0.070); FL-Atlantic (0.064); Boston College (0.062); Marshall (0.057); UTSA (0.052)

Biggest drops: Iowa St. (-0.078); Tulsa (-0.068); Michigan (-0.061); Purdue (-0.060); Oregon St. (-0.056)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 8: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: FL-Atlantic (0.236); Buffalo (0.120); North Texas (0.104); Duke (0.081); Texas (0.081)

Biggest drops: East Carolina (-0.205); South Florida (-0.185); Middle Tenn. (-0.183); Arkansas (-0.167); UAB (-0.154)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 8: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: FL-Atlantic (0.229); Memphis (0.072); Boston College (0.070); Houston (0.070); Indiana (0.051)

Biggest drops: South Florida (-0.112); South Carolina (-0.099); North Carolina St. (-0.084); Middle Tenn. (-0.082); Miami-FL (-0.076)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 3: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Bowling Green (0.206); Miami-FL (0.156); Minnesota (0.081); Oklahoma (0.067); Wyoming (0.063)

Biggest drops: FL-Atlantic (-0.121); Ohio (-0.114); Tulsa (-0.104); Nebraska (-0.103); FIU (-0.083)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 13: Saturday Recap

This week we're bringing something new to the recaps: in-game win probabilities. We're still working on bringing these graphs to you live on game day -- hence the "beta" tag -- but for now we're hoping they add an extra bit of insight into how each game unfolded.

Week 13
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
RBA	39.4 -  13.6	74.3	40 -  13	75.5
TFG	38.5 -  14.5	72.7	39 -  14	73.6

Game of the Week

Florida State Seminoles 21, Florida Gators 7; 152 plays

Justin

(11) Florida St. 31, (16) Florida 30 (54.7%); 158 plays

Even in defeat, TFG continues to overestimate the Gators. Even though Florida State is better than their record would indicate, Florida should have at least made a game of it. By halftime the game was pretty much a lock. The Seminoles had a 14-point lead and were just shy of 90% likely to win. An ugly game, but a win's a win.

Eddie

(17) Florida 28, (14) Florida St. 24 (63.0%); 163 plays

We said this would be unpredictable. Well, nobody saw the two teams combining for 279 total yards and five turnovers. Unlike LSU-Alabama, which was a hard-hitting game with a bunch of missed field goals, this game was completely forgettable thanks to sloppy play all around. RBA missed the pick, but I get the joy of watching my Florida and Florida State officemates go back and forth for the next few weeks.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game

Wisconsin Badgers 45, Penn State Nittany Lions 7; 155 plays

Eddie

(6) Wisconsin 34, (31) Penn State 17 (79.7%); 162 plays

Chalk up another one for the Unstoppable Force. I was a bit more pessimistic about the Penn State offense than Justin, and they delivered. The game was higher scoring than expected, largely due to Penn State's turnover problem. When you keep turning the ball over on your side of the field, you're going to surrender points, especially against an offense like Wisconsin's.

Justin

(6) Wisconsin 36, (22) Penn State 26 (70.7%); 162 plays

This game was going to be an uphill battle for the Nittany Lions, but they started strong with a 7-0 lead. It was downhill from there. This was another one that was over by halftime. Even with a slow pace, the Badgers proved they've got a dominating offense.

Unstoppable Force 9, Immovable Object 3

Shootout of the Week

Baylor Bears 66, Texas Tech Red Raiders 42; 210 plays

Justin

(50) Baylor 41, (71) Texas Tech 36 (63.1%); 178 plays

A game with 210 plays and 108 total points. I'll have to check, but that might set a record for highest combined offensive efficiency in a game (51.4 PPH). Despite being underdogs and down by 10 with about 12 minutes left, the Red Raiders still had a 1-in-4 shot of winning. And that, folks, is why playing "the first to 60 wins" is a bad strategy.

Eddie

(50) Baylor 38, (63) Texas Tech 31 (58.6%); 175 plays

Jackpot. This game was way higher scoring than expected, making it the perfect shootout. 210 plays in a non-overtime game is absolutely ridiculous. Interestingly, they hit 210 plays despite Baylor running for 360 yards without RG3. Good thing Texas Tech fired Mike Leach; they might become an embarrassment.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Florida Atlantic Owls 38, UAB Blazers 35; 159 plays

Eddie

(117) FL-Atlantic 31, (118) UAB 27 (73.7%); 164 plays

A football game was played. RBA picked the winner, despite them being winless on the season. I'll consider that a positive.

Justin

(112) UAB 36, (117) FL-Atlantic 33 (70.3%); 163 plays

Dammit, another loss. Eddie: I promise I'll tweak it so it'll stop choosing these "who-the-f*ck-are-these-guys" games.

Coin Toss Record: TFG 6, RBA 5.

2011 - 2012 Season
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
TFG	485.7 - 170.3	74.0	481 - 175	73.3
RBA	482.8 - 173.2	73.6	473 - 183	72.1

Follow us on Twitter @TFGridiron.

Week 13: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week

Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators

GUGS Score: 72.1

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
16	Florida	0.769	0.637	8	23.8	23	14.8	17	160.1	100
11	Florida St.	0.800	0.552	50	25.3	16	14.5	12	157.8	111

This is a showdown of teams that TFG has tended to overestimate this year. The Seminoles have lost three ACC games by a total of 11 points, while the Gators have lost three of their conference games by a total of 20 points (we'll ignore LSU and Alabama). While the Seminoles have a 1.5 PPH advantage on offense and a slight 0.3 PPH advantage on D, home field will give the Gators a better shot than they would otherwise. Both teams are better than their records would indicate, so it'll be interesting to see how these evenly-matched squads stack up. TFG gives the slight nod to the Seminoles, but it's effectively a coin toss. Florida St. 31, Florida 30 (54.7%); 158 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
18	Florida	0.864	0.554	8	20.7	20	8.1	3	161.4	109
15	Florida St.	0.894	0.549	13	19.2	31	10.3	8	165.9	74

What is this, 2000? Oh yeah, the game of the week was played yesterday. If nothing else, this game should be unpredictable. (17) Florida's offense and defense can be spectacular but have been spectacularly absent against stronger competition at 34.8 +/- 28.1 PPH and 0.0 +/- 29.2 PPH, respectively. (14) Florida State's offense is far more consistent than the Gators'. However, that's a bad thing at 25.3 +/- 12.2 PPH. The Seminole defense isn't much of an improvement at 0.0 +/- 20.1 PPH. RBA says Florida should win 28-24 with 63.0%, but with flakiness like this, one can never be too sure.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game

Penn State Nittany Lions at Wisconsin Badgers

GUGS Score: 54.5

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
6	Wisconsin	0.958	0.533	42	28.0	1	11.5	19	161.6	107
31	Penn State	0.748	0.542	27	13.4	87	9.4	4	163.5	96

(31) Penn State's defense is a solid 4.6 +/- 9.6 PPH, but they're going to need their 20.0 +/- 13.2 PPH offense to step up against the (6) Badgers. Wisconsin's offense has sputtered in the last few weeks but is a vastly superior 39.3 +/- 22.5 PPH. Their defense is above average but not spectacular at 4.0 +/- 15.0 PPH. It shouldn't matter, though, as Penn State has had tremendous trouble moving the ball against anybody. The Nittany Lion defense can keep this one from getting too out of hand, but Wisconsin should win, 34-17, with 79.7% probability.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
6	Wisconsin	0.869	0.503	66	33.2	1	15.6	26	157.2	112
22	Penn State	0.732	0.595	24	17.5	75	11.7	3	167.4	52

The Nittany Lions are the most bipolar team in FBS right now. If you want some sense of just how different Penn State is on either side of the ball, imagine pairing the (80) Washington State offense with the (2) LSU defense; that's basically the Penn State team this year. Thanks to slugging performances by Alabama and LSU, the Badgers not possess the top-ranked offense in FBS. This really will be an unstoppable force against an immovable object. Unfortunately for Penn State, TFG says that this will end like most of these showdowns: the unstoppable force wins. In this case it'll be the Penn State offense that lets them down and doesn't keep them in the game. Wisconsin 36, Penn State 26 (70.7%); 162 plays.

Shootout of the Week

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Baylor Bears

GUGS Score: 40.7

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
50	Baylor	0.574	0.618	14	24.5	19	21.7	79	176.2	13
71	Texas Tech	0.440	0.586	34	19.5	56	21.5	75	181.2	4

What can we say? Big XII teams like to play fast. Normally this leads to teams getting an inflated reputation on offense and a bum rap on defense, but in this case the accusations of having a dodgy defense are actually valid. Neither squad has a defense ranked in the top half of FBS, so let's just say that the first to 60 points wins. TFG consistently under-estimates the final scores of these shootouts, but it's a safe bet that the combined score here will crack 80. The computer gives the slight nod to Baylor since their offense seems to be more of a threat than the flukey Red Raider squad. Baylor 41, Texas Tech 36 (63.1%); 178 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
50	Baylor	0.591	0.563	3	20.6	23	18.3	79	172.4	12
63	Texas Tech	0.464	0.531	46	18.0	40	18.5	81	179.6	1

Let's just call this the Oklahoma Spoiler Bowl. (50) Baylor is a high-scoring team primarily due to their pace. Their offense produces only 23.4 +/- 5.6 PPH. (63) Texas Tech is the same story at 26.1 +/- 16.1 PPH. Neither team plays much defense, so we can expect a lot of points. RBA says Baylor wins 38-31 with 58.6% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

UAB Blazers at Florida Atlantic Owls

GUGS Score: 31.4

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
118	FL-Atlantic	0.009	0.436	113	7.0	118	23.0	112	164.9	84
117	UAB	0.017	0.478	80	12.0	102	21.1	102	164.8	87

I know virtually nothing about these teams. In fact, Yahoo! sports doesn't know anything about them and fails to provide a preview for the game. Here's what I do know about these teams. (117) Florida Atlantic and (118) UAB are two of the four worst teams in the country according to RBA. UAB's defense would surrender 23.8 PPH to Florida Atlantic but the Owls' offense can muster only 11.5 PPH. These teams are all kinds of awful, and the only reason why this game is 73.7% in favor of Florida-Atlantic is because their strengths are so low that minor differences result in big changes in probability. RBA says Florida-Atlantic, 31-27.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
117	FL-Atlantic	0.070	0.384	95	10.7	118	30.1	115	159.8	102
112	UAB	0.151	0.394	92	14.9	107	29.8	114	166.6	56

The sad fact is that these teams are so bad that Eddie didn't realize that he'd originally written his coin toss summary using my stats and outcome. I've kind of given up on trying to explain to the computer that even if we disagree vehemently about the outcome of a game, that doesn't mean that it's going to be good. In this case we have two of the seven worst defenses in FBS facing off against two of the 14 worst offenses. A game of the century it ain't, but at least I correctly point out that my computer likes UAB's offense much better than Florida-Atlantic's (hey, the Blazers are only 2.6 PPH shy of Penn State on offense) and that's going to be the deciding factor. UAB 36, FL-Atlantic 33 (70.3%); 163 plays.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	28.66 -  9.34	75.43%
TFG	27.92 - 10.08	73.47%