Week 5: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Sep 30 08:31:40 2012

Miami-OH	56	Akron	49	Final
Mississippi	14	Alabama	33	Final
Tulsa	49	UAB	42	Final
Oregon St.	38	Arizona	35	Final
Western Kentucky	26	Arkansas St.	13	Final
Clemson	45	Boston College	31	Final
SDSU	40	Fresno St.	52	Final
Arizona St.	27	California	17	Final
Missouri	21	UCF	16	Final
Virginia Tech	24	Cincinnati	27	Final
UCLA	42	Colorado	14	Final
Buffalo	17	Connecticut	24	Final
UTEP	18	East Carolina	28	Final
North Texas	20	FL-Atlantic	14	Final
Middle Tenn.	49	Georgia Tech	28	Final
Tennessee	44	Georgia	51	Final
Rice	14	Houston	35	Final
Penn State	35	Illinois	7	Final
Texas Tech	24	Iowa St.	13	Final
Minnesota	13	Iowa	31	Final
Ball St.	43	Kent St.	45	Final
South Carolina	38	Kentucky	17	Final
Ohio	37	Massachusetts	34	Final
North Carolina St.	37	Miami-FL	44	Final
Ohio St.	17	Michigan St.	16	Final
Idaho	0	North Carolina	66	Final
Wisconsin	27	Nebraska	30	Final
UTSA	35	New Mexico St.	14	Final
Boise St.	32	New Mexico	29	Final
Central Michigan	24	Northern Ill.	55	Final
Indiana	29	Northwestern	44	Final
Texas	41	Oklahoma St.	36	Final
Washington St.	26	Oregon	51	Final
Marshall	41	Purdue	51	Final
Troy	31	South Alabama	10	Final
Florida St.	30	South Florida	17	Final
TCU	24	SMU	16	Final
Louisville	21	Southern Miss.	17	Final
Nevada	34	Texas State	21	Final
FIU	20	LA-Lafayette	48	Final
Arkansas	10	Texas A&M	58	Final
LA-Monroe	63	Tulane	10	Final
Colorado St.	21	Air Force	42	Final
SJSU	12	Navy	0	Final
UNLV	13	Utah St.	35	Final
LA Tech	44	Virginia	38	Final
Duke	34	Wake Forest	27	Final
Baylor	63	West Virginia	70	Final
Toledo	37	Western Michigan	17	Final

Week 5: Saturday Predictions

66 Air Force 43 111 Colorado St. 30

49 Air Force 38 108 Colorado St. 20

118 Akron 33 106 Miami-OH 39

123 Akron 20  99 Miami-OH 31

1 Alabama 49  70 Mississippi 20

1 Alabama 55  78 Mississippi 10

60 Arizona 33  55 Oregon St. 31

48 Arizona 31  69 Oregon St. 24

72 Arkansas St. 36  79 Western Kentucky 31

79 Arkansas St. 28  80 Western Kentucky 24

83 Boston College 30  27 Clemson 36

77 Boston College 24  33 Clemson 31

41 California 33  25 Arizona St. 35

50 California 24  21 Arizona St. 31

26 Cincinnati 31  21 Virginia Tech 33

24 Cincinnati 31  37 Virginia Tech 20

109 Colorado 30  53 UCLA 40

116 Colorado 21  39 UCLA 38

43 Connecticut 39 112 Buffalo 24

68 Connecticut 35 113 Buffalo 14

95 East Carolina 36  96 UTEP 32

84 East Carolina 31  94 UTEP 24

116 FL-Atlantic 31  86 North Texas 37

119 FL-Atlantic 20  96 North Texas 28

62 Fresno St. 38  57 SDSU 35

54 Fresno St. 31  57 SDSU 28

18 Georgia 43  54 Tennessee 31

5 Georgia 34  38 Tennessee 17

38 Georgia Tech 47 107 Middle Tenn. 31

30 Georgia Tech 56 105 Middle Tenn. 13

51 Houston 45 100 Rice 34

32 Houston 45 101 Rice 24

69 Illinois 28  34 Penn State 29

72 Illinois 20  36 Penn State 27

52 Iowa 35  80 Minnesota 28

60 Iowa 31  90 Minnesota 21

59 Iowa St. 34  45 Texas Tech 32

47 Iowa St. 31  56 Texas Tech 24

108 Kent St. 35  98 Ball St. 33

107 Kent St. 24  97 Ball St. 27

82 Kentucky 26   8 South Carolina 38

75 Kentucky 10   7 South Carolina 38

81 LA-Lafayette 38  85 FIU 34

82 LA-Lafayette 31  98 FIU 24

121 Massachusetts 24  64 Ohio 44

122 Massachusetts 20  40 Ohio 42

42 Miami-FL 34  47 North Carolina St. 31

59 Miami-FL 27  52 North Carolina St. 24

16 Michigan St. 32  19 Ohio St. 30

15 Michigan St. 27  19 Ohio St. 21

89 Navy 39  78 SJSU 37

83 Navy 31  76 SJSU 28

20 Nebraska 38  12 Wisconsin 37

20 Nebraska 28   8 Wisconsin 29

120 New Mexico 18   3 Boise St. 46

111 New Mexico 7  11 Boise St. 59

115 New Mexico St. 46 NA UTSA 53

114 New Mexico St. 31 109 UTSA 27

44 North Carolina 44 104 Idaho 29

51 North Carolina 38 104 Idaho 7

65 Northern Ill. 45 101 Central Michigan 33

53 Northern Ill. 41 110 Central Michigan 24

61 Northwestern 42  97 Indiana 31

45 Northwestern 38  91 Indiana 21

17 Oklahoma St. 40  13 Texas 37

10 Oklahoma St. 35  23 Texas 27

4 Oregon 50  99 Washington St. 27

3 Oregon 42  89 Washington St. 14

56 Purdue 40  94 Marshall 30

62 Purdue 38  88 Marshall 21

90 SMU 25   9 TCU 39

81 SMU 17  17 TCU 35

NA South Alabama 29  91 Troy 34

120 South Alabama 24  95 Troy 28

58 South Florida 28   6 Florida St. 38

55 South Florida 20   6 Florida St. 28

77 Southern Miss. 34  40 Louisville 36

74 Southern Miss. 28  34 Louisville 31

14 Texas A&M 39  30 Arkansas 33

16 Texas A&M 38  43 Arkansas 20

NA Texas State 30  31 Nevada 41

124 Texas State 20  41 Nevada 45

119 Tulane 27  74 LA-Monroe 40

121 Tulane 21  73 LA-Monroe 31

113 UAB 30  46 Tulsa 42

115 UAB 20  67 Tulsa 38

50 UCF 31  28 Missouri 33

58 UCF 21  31 Missouri 27

68 Utah St. 44 110 UNLV 30

65 Utah St. 38 112 UNLV 21

87 Virginia 31  35 LA Tech 36

85 Virginia 24  35 LA Tech 31

88 Wake Forest 36  84 Duke 34

70 Wake Forest 34  71 Duke 28

24 West Virginia 46  33 Baylor 40

25 West Virginia 38  27 Baylor 31

76 Western Michigan 38  63 Toledo 36

87 Western Michigan 27  63 Toledo 31

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 5: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week

Wisconsin Badgers at Nebraska Cornhuskers

GUGS Score: 71.9

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
20	Nebraska	0.759	0.555	39	26.3	21	16.6	23	165.5	53
12	Wisconsin	0.822	0.523	46	34.0	2	18.5	34	152.8	118

By the end of last year, Wisconsin had the best offense in FBS. At 39.2 PPH, they were a full 2.0 PPH ahead of the second-best offense, Alabama. Given that it's no wonder that TFG is still positive on Wisconsin, even though their efficiency has plummeted. Oddly, though, their defensive efficiency hasn't budged an inch from that ranking, which is giving them a little leeway to be anemic on the offensive end. The Cornhuskers, though, have gained as much on offense as Wisconsin has lost (+4.3 PPH on the year) while only slipping 0.6 PPH on defense. TFG gives this coin toss to Nebraska, but if Wisconsin's offense further proves that it's not anywhere near as potent as last year, this could get out of hand quickly. Nebraska 38, Wisconsin 37 (50.8%); 159 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
20	Nebraska	0.873	0.532	44	20.8	21	12.5	27	167.0	60
8	Wisconsin	0.950	0.533	41	20.9	20	12.2	26	161.5	110

The Badgers haven't looked very good this season, squeaking past FCS Northern Iowa and Utah State and losing to Oregon State. However, they were so good last year that it's taking a while to bring them back down to earth. The Badger offense has dropped from 37.9 +/- 18.3 PPH under Russell Wilson to 23.3 +/- 4.9 PPH under Danny O'Brien, but at least it's consistent, right? Wisconsin's defense is still playing tolerably well at 5.1 +/- 14.2 PPH to compensate for the offensive malaise. Nebraska has put up a bunch of points at 28.1 +/- 14.6 PPH but lost their only game against BCS competition. Unfortunately, this isn't quite as good as the Badgers.  RBA thinks that this game is going to be really good, but the Badgers should escape Lincoln with a 29-28 victory at 66.1% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Virginia Tech Hokies vs Cincinnati Bearcats

GUGS Score: 67.0

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
24	Cincinnati	0.817	0.509	64	18.5	35	11.2	22	169.1	32
37	Virginia Tech	0.718	0.527	59	16.2	54	11.0	18	158.4	121

RBA has never been a fan of the Hokies. Although they win quite a few games, they just can't seem to perform defensively against strong competition. The Hokie defensive efficiency is only 0.0 +/- 26.9 PPH, meaning that they faceplant against good teams. The Bearcats aren't the best team on the planet, but they're solid on both sides of the ball, averaging 26.0 +/- 15.1 PPH on offense and 5.6 +/- 11.1 PPH on defense.  Virginia Tech simply won't be able to keep up with a 23.1 +/- 13.7 PPH offense.  RBA picks Cincinnati, 31-20, with 55.8% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
26	Cincinnati	0.712	0.517	50	24.7	26	17.2	24	166.9	44
21	Virginia Tech	0.741	0.502	58	22.2	45	14.6	14	159.2	93

Ah yes. The ACC versus the Big East. Two of the least predictable conferences. Technically my computer has a made a prediction -- and a tentative one at that -- but who knows how this will play out. The Hokies have a middle-of-the-pack offense and a just-below-top-tier defense, while Cincinnati is a bit more balanced in their place in the world (26th-best offense, 24th-best defense). The Bearcats tend to play slightly faster than the Hokies, but not by much. Expect this to be a very grind-it-out game between two strong but not impressive programs. And may my pick be correct. Virginia Tech 33, Cincinnati 31 (53.7%); 163 plays.

2012 Coin Toss Record: TIED at 2.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	36.94 - 12.06	75.40%
TFG	35.25 - 13.75	71.94%

Week 5: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Sep 28 20:24:02 2012

Hawaii

0

BYU

47

Final

Week 5: Friday Predictions

32 BYU 42  93 Hawaii 28

29 BYU 48  93 Hawaii 17

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 5: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Sep 27 22:32:02 2012

Stanford

13

Washington

17

Final

Week 5: Thursday Predictions

67 Washington 31   5 Stanford 43

42 Washington 21   4 Stanford 38

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 5: Top 25 -- RBA

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	1.000	0.551	13	26.5	2	4.3	1	156.4	123
2	--	LSU	0.992	0.549	18	23.8	6	7.5	2	160.0	116
3	--	Oregon	0.984	0.530	52	24.6	4	11.0	17	176.6	3
4	--	Stanford	0.975	0.543	28	23.1	9	11.0	16	167.0	58
5	+8	Georgia	0.975	0.546	22	24.0	5	11.6	23	160.1	115
6	+3	Florida St.	0.967	0.549	14	23.0	10	9.1	5	165.8	79
7	+1	South Carolina	0.959	0.541	32	22.9	11	7.9	4	157.7	122
8	+2	Wisconsin	0.950	0.533	41	20.9	20	12.2	26	161.5	110
9	-4	Oklahoma	0.949	0.545	25	19.1	30	9.5	7	171.6	14
10	+1	Oklahoma St.	0.941	0.549	15	26.7	1	15.9	57	173.7	7
11	-4	Boise St.	0.941	0.464	95	21.6	16	9.3	6	168.5	42
12	--	USC	0.924	0.533	43	22.0	13	10.5	14	166.9	61
13	-7	Notre Dame	0.922	0.565	2	19.1	31	9.6	10	164.6	90
14	+4	Florida	0.907	0.559	6	19.0	32	7.7	3	161.4	111
15	--	Michigan St.	0.897	0.543	27	17.0	46	9.5	8	167.0	59
16	+1	Texas A&M	0.892	0.556	9	22.0	12	9.6	9	172.8	12
17	-1	TCU	0.890	0.462	96	20.3	23	11.1	20	167.6	51
18	-4	Kansas St.	0.875	0.532	45	23.5	7	14.6	45	165.9	76
19	+1	Ohio St.	0.873	0.531	47	19.3	29	11.8	24	159.3	117
20	-1	Nebraska	0.873	0.532	44	20.8	21	12.5	27	167.0	60
21	+2	Arizona St.	0.851	0.532	46	21.7	15	11.1	21	173.9	6
22	--	Michigan	0.825	0.545	23	21.8	14	12.8	32	167.3	54
23	NA	Texas	0.821	0.520	61	21.4	17	12.6	29	168.0	45
24	--	Cincinnati	0.817	0.509	64	18.5	35	11.2	22	169.1	32
25	NA	West Virginia	0.815	0.533	42	21.3	19	14.9	51	166.6	67

Rankings through games of 2012-09-23

New entries: Texas, West Virginia.

Dropped out: Mississippi St., Virginia Tech.

I've been sick since Saturday morning, so please excuse the delay on the top 25.

This week's big mover is Georgia thanks to whipping the crap out of Vanderbilt.  This gives the SEC three of the top five spots in the RBA poll.  The other big mover is Notre Dame, but in the negative direction.  Michigan's defense isn't that great, and the Irish managed to score only 13 against them, changing their offensive efficiency to 30.1 +/- 22.0 PPH from 29.1 +/- 19.5 PPH.  This means that RBA expects them to score fewer points against strong competition, causing them to drop in the rankings.

Also, what Justin says about my office is true.  I've stood by my Razorbacks for the past 13 years.  I remained a fan when they got thumped by USC 70-17 en route to a 4-7 season.  I stood by them when nut-job fans filed Freedom of Information Act requests against Houston Nutt as rogue boosters harassed players.  I stood by the program when they fired Bobby Petrino for violating employment law.  I supported them when they lost to Louisiana-Monroe earlier this year.  I can tolerate losing 52-0 to Alabama, but I can't tolerate my team giving up.  I'm taking a hiatus from my Razorbacks until they decide to stop being self-destructive.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 5: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Penn State (0.190); Fresno St. (0.133); Utah St. (0.096); Western Kentucky (0.092); Oregon St. (0.067)

Biggest drops: Temple (-0.181); Vanderbilt (-0.133); Iowa (-0.130); Illinois (-0.113); Syracuse (-0.111)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 5: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Virginia Tech (0.092); Western Kentucky (0.091); Mississippi (0.087); North Carolina (0.063); Central Michigan (0.061)

Biggest drops: Vanderbilt (-0.099); Arizona (-0.092); Southern Miss. (-0.086); Utah (-0.081); Air Force (-0.069)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 5: Top 25 -- TFG

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.984	0.564	35	39.3	1	7.6	1	147.3	121
2	--	LSU	0.934	0.594	20	31.7	4	11.0	2	155.1	111
3	--	Boise St.	0.882	0.480	68	30.6	8	13.6	7	157.2	101
4	+4	Oregon	0.879	0.573	28	31.5	5	14.2	10	181.1	6
5	+1	Stanford	0.872	0.564	34	33.7	3	15.7	19	157.3	100
6	-2	Florida St.	0.869	0.552	41	30.7	7	14.4	13	156.8	105
7	-2	Oklahoma	0.853	0.613	10	23.9	30	11.8	3	175.1	14
8	+1	South Carolina	0.849	0.500	59	28.8	12	14.4	11	153.8	115
9	+1	TCU	0.848	0.375	106	28.6	14	14.4	12	156.9	102
10	+5	Florida	0.833	0.605	16	26.4	19	13.9	9	156.8	103
11	--	Notre Dame	0.828	0.596	19	23.7	31	12.7	4	160.3	87
12	-5	Wisconsin	0.822	0.523	46	34.0	2	18.5	34	152.8	118
13	+1	Texas	0.814	0.456	81	27.5	18	15.3	15	160.6	86
14	-2	Texas A&M	0.812	0.608	13	23.1	35	12.9	5	182.7	4
15	+2	USC	0.802	0.581	26	27.7	17	15.9	21	163.8	63
16	+2	Michigan St.	0.791	0.555	38	22.6	41	13.2	6	161.6	81
17	-4	Oklahoma St.	0.789	0.587	23	30.2	10	17.8	28	183.2	3
18	+3	Georgia	0.789	0.482	64	30.0	11	17.7	27	165.5	51
19	-3	Ohio St.	0.760	0.457	80	25.9	24	16.3	22	160.8	85
20	-1	Nebraska	0.759	0.555	39	26.3	21	16.6	23	165.5	53
21	NA	Virginia Tech	0.741	0.502	58	22.2	45	14.6	14	159.2	93
22	+1	Kansas St.	0.735	0.605	15	31.5	6	20.9	60	153.9	114
23	+1	Michigan	0.723	0.590	22	30.4	9	20.7	58	155.1	112
24	-4	West Virginia	0.722	0.502	57	28.2	16	19.2	40	169.4	33
25	NA	Arizona St.	0.719	0.586	24	26.2	22	18.0	30	168.5	37

Rankings through games of 2012-09-23

New entries: Virginia Tech, Arizona St..

Dropped out: Cincinnati, Missouri.


Despite last week's plea for Alabama to stumble, it appears that didn't happen. What did happen, though, is that Oregon stepped up and thumped then-(38) Arizona in a major way. Florida State struggled against (32) Clemson, but finally put them away in the 4th quarter; allowing your opponent to score 37 points, though, isn't exactly the path to the BCS title game.

The story of the rankings right now, though, is change from last year. There are definitely fundamental changes from last year -- Andrew Luck isn't at Stanford, Kellen Moore isn't at Boise, Wisconsin can't seem to run the ball, and Arkansas is in free-fall to the point that Eddie has renounced his Hawgs and purged his office of Razorback paraphernalia -- but since the four games played this year only account for just less than half of the weight of the rankings so far, TFG is still figuring that out. And while some teams are managing to hold on to some appearance of previous glory (see: Stanford), others have fallen off the cliff (see: Arkansas and Houston).

There's still a lot of football left to play, but at the risk of sounding like an Alabama homer I'd like to leave you with these few statistics:

• Alabama has had 252 plays from scrimmage;
• They have scored on 28 of these (11.1%);
• In the 224 plays where they haven't scored, they got first downs on 84 of them (37.5%); meaning
• Alabama has either scored or picked up a first down on 44.4% of their plays.

And while it's likely that Alabama won't win the title, it's difficult to imagine someone being able to stand up to them right now.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 4: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Sep 22 22:58:04 2012