Friday, October 14, 2011

Week 7: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA


Odds as of games through 2011-10-09




Legitimate Title Contenders

Boise State Broncos
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.966 7 0.459 95 25.9 4 8.7 5 169.1 30

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  24 Georgia 21 vs   3 Boise St. 35 66.8%
2011/09/16   4 Boise St. 40 at  70 Toledo 15 96.4%
2011/09/24  56 Tulsa 21 at   5 Boise St. 41 89.8%
2011/10/01  58 Nevada 10 at   6 Boise St. 30 91.0%
2011/10/07   7 Boise St. 57 at  75 Fresno St. 7 91.9%
2011/10/15   7 Boise St. 52 at 109 Colorado St. 10 98.1%
2011/10/22  47 Air Force 17 at   7 Boise St. 41 85.5%
2011/11/05   7 Boise St. 49 at 120 UNLV 14 98.0%
2011/11/12   8 TCU 27 at   7 Boise St. 31 74.0%
2011/11/19   7 Boise St. 35 at  63 SDSU 20 90.7%
2011/11/26 107 Wyoming 7 at   7 Boise St. 49 96.6%
2011/12/03 117 New Mexico 6 at   7 Boise St. 59 99.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.9
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 74.0%
Notes: Boise had similar odds last year and bricked a couple of gimme field goals.


Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 1.000 1 0.549 16 24.5 7 5.0 1 157.4 120

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  97 Kent St. 7 at   2 Alabama 48 98.2%
2011/09/10   3 Alabama 27 at  37 Penn State 11 89.4%
2011/09/17 108 North Texas 0 at   2 Alabama 41 98.1%
2011/09/24  19 Arkansas 14 at   2 Alabama 38 74.7%
2011/10/01   1 Alabama 38 at  10 Florida 10 70.5%
2011/10/08  58 Vanderbilt 0 at   1 Alabama 34 94.6%
2011/10/15   1 Alabama 35 at  79 Mississippi 14 97.8%
2011/10/22  27 Tennessee 13 at   1 Alabama 35 90.5%
2011/11/05   3 LSU 24 at   1 Alabama 28 66.6%
2011/11/12   1 Alabama 31 at  34 Mississippi St. 14 92.1%
2011/11/26   1 Alabama 31 at  23 Auburn 20 92.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-2.0
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs LSU Tigers, 66.6%
Notes: Alabama is the best team in college football and will be heavily favored against everyone but LSU.


Oklahoma Sooners
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.966 6 0.545 22 25.3 6 8.4 3 170.9 19

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  58 Tulsa 14 at   7 Oklahoma 47 85.6%
2011/09/17   5 Oklahoma 23 at  12 Florida St. 13 28.1%
2011/09/24  30 Missouri 28 at   8 Oklahoma 38 76.8%
2011/10/01  91 Ball St. 6 at   8 Oklahoma 62 97.6%
2011/10/08  31 Texas 17 vs   6 Oklahoma 55 73.8%
2011/10/15   6 Oklahoma 52 at  89 Kansas 17 95.8%
2011/10/22  46 Texas Tech 17 at   6 Oklahoma 41 87.3%
2011/10/29   6 Oklahoma 38 at  38 Kansas St. 21 85.0%
2011/11/05  20 Texas A&M 21 at   6 Oklahoma 35 74.8%
2011/11/19   6 Oklahoma 41 at  40 Baylor 27 87.5%
2011/11/26  76 Iowa St. 17 at   6 Oklahoma 45 93.2%
2011/12/03   6 Oklahoma 28 at   9 Oklahoma St. 27 75.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.1
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs Texas A&M Aggies, 74.8%
Notes: Unlike Alabama and Boise State, Oklahoma has two strong opponents remaining: the Aggies and the Cowboys.


Wisconsin Badgers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.992 2 0.536 36 27.8 1 10.3 9 162.1 106

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/01 106 UNLV 17 at  11 Wisconsin 51 94.7%
2011/09/10  65 Oregon St. 0 at   7 Wisconsin 35 78.4%
2011/09/17   3 Wisconsin 49 vs  64 Northern Ill. 7 71.8%
2011/10/01  26 Nebraska 17 at   2 Wisconsin 48 66.2%
2011/10/15  96 Indiana 14 at   2 Wisconsin 45 95.3%
2011/10/22   2 Wisconsin 35 at  33 Michigan St. 17 77.7%
2011/10/29   2 Wisconsin 31 at  19 Ohio St. 20 66.6%
2011/11/05  87 Purdue 13 at   2 Wisconsin 49 96.1%
2011/11/12   2 Wisconsin 45 at 112 Minnesota 17 96.5%
2011/11/19   2 Wisconsin 34 at  28 Illinois 24 83.8%
2011/11/26  41 Penn State 14 at   2 Wisconsin 35 83.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.1
Most difficult game left: October 29, at Ohio State Buckeyes, 66.6%
Notes: Wisconsin needs to blow out Ohio State and Michigan State on the road to impress the humans because there's a 16% chance that Alabama and Oklahoma win out.


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.983 4 0.544 24 27.3 2 8.9 6 167.2 52

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03 107 SJSU 3 at   1 Stanford 57 98.2%
2011/09/10   1 Stanford 44 at  82 Duke 14 93.3%
2011/09/17   1 Stanford 37 at  37 Arizona 10 79.2%
2011/10/01  75 UCLA 19 at   3 Stanford 45 94.7%
2011/10/08  67 Colorado 7 at   4 Stanford 48 94.9%
2011/10/15   4 Stanford 45 at  64 Washington St. 14 90.8%
2011/10/22  44 Washington 20 at   4 Stanford 41 87.5%
2011/10/29   4 Stanford 38 at  30 USC 24 84.8%
2011/11/05   4 Stanford 41 at  85 Oregon St. 20 94.9%
2011/11/12   5 Oregon 28 at   4 Stanford 35 54.4%
2011/11/19  53 California 14 at   4 Stanford 42 89.9%
2011/11/26  16 Notre Dame 20 at   4 Stanford 38 79.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.0
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 54.4%
Notes: The computers love Stanford, but they also love Oregon. If Oklahoma and Wisconsin lose, I'd even expect the stadium to be 90% full.


LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.991 3 0.550 14 21.7 15 7.3 2 160.8 112

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03   9 Oregon 27 vs   8 LSU 40 56.5%
2011/09/15   8 LSU 19 at  25 Mississippi St. 6 64.1%
2011/09/24   7 LSU 47 at  26 West Virginia 21 35.3%
2011/10/01  57 Kentucky 7 at   4 LSU 35 84.7%
2011/10/08  13 Florida 11 at   3 LSU 41 54.8%
2011/10/15   3 LSU 31 at  27 Tennessee 17 82.7%
2011/10/22  23 Auburn 20 at   3 LSU 34 86.4%
2011/11/05   3 LSU 24 at   1 Alabama 28 33.4%
2011/11/12 105 Western Kentucky 3 at   3 LSU 42 98.4%
2011/11/19   3 LSU 34 at  79 Mississippi 17 95.7%
2011/11/25  12 Arkansas 20 at   3 LSU 35 78.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5.7
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 33.4%
Notes: LSU has played very well this season, but the Tigers need a game for the ages against Alabama. Even if they win that one, they still have to make it past Arkansas.


Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.924 10 0.528 55 18.7 38 10.5 11 166.4 65

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  76 Troy 19 at  38 Clemson 43 80.0%
2011/09/17  16 Auburn 24 at  27 Clemson 38 45.7%
2011/09/24  12 Florida St. 30 at  16 Clemson 35 28.3%
2011/10/01  11 Clemson 23 at  19 Virginia Tech 3 37.6%
2011/10/08  91 Boston College 14 at  10 Clemson 36 84.8%
2011/10/15  10 Clemson 28 at  65 Maryland 21 77.3%
2011/10/22  42 North Carolina 20 at  10 Clemson 31 66.8%
2011/10/29  10 Clemson 27 at  36 Georgia Tech 21 61.7%
2011/11/12  84 Wake Forest 21 at  10 Clemson 35 83.2%
2011/11/19  10 Clemson 31 at  70 North Carolina St. 24 82.2%
2011/11/26  10 Clemson 24 at  15 South Carolina 28 47.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-9.7
Most difficult game left: November 26, at South Carolina Gamecocks, 47.5%
Notes: We don't trust ACC teams here at Tempo-Free Gridiron, but Stephen Garcia's dismissal made Clemson's road easier.


Long Shots

Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.537 57 0.475 84 20.3 24 17.4 76 175.1 4

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  66 UCLA 34 at  67 Houston 38 50.7%
2011/09/10  63 Houston 48 at 111 North Texas 23 68.4%
2011/09/17  67 Houston 35 at  79 LA Tech 34 64.5%
2011/09/29  64 Houston 49 at  95 UTEP 42 75.5%
2011/10/08  93 East Carolina 3 at  57 Houston 56 56.0%
2011/10/22 102 Marshall 20 at  57 Houston 38 70.7%
2011/10/27  92 Rice 24 at  57 Houston 42 72.4%
2011/11/05  57 Houston 38 at 115 UAB 24 79.2%
2011/11/10  57 Houston 45 at 103 Tulane 24 86.3%
2011/11/19  68 SMU 27 at  57 Houston 35 60.3%
2011/11/25  57 Houston 31 at  50 Tulsa 35 39.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-12.0
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 39.6%
Notes: Even if they win out, Houston's not playing in the national championship game because they struggle to beat bottom 60 teams convincingly.


Illinois Fighting Illini
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.778 28 0.536 37 18.2 42 13.9 40 169.8 24

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  90 Arkansas St. 15 at  32 Illinois 33 76.8%
2011/09/17  28 Arizona St. 14 at  26 Illinois 17 59.6%
2011/09/24  76 Western Michigan 20 at  24 Illinois 23 89.8%
2011/10/01  76 Northwestern 35 at  30 Illinois 38 71.4%
2011/10/08  28 Illinois 41 at  96 Indiana 20 82.7%
2011/10/15  19 Ohio St. 24 at  28 Illinois 25 72.1%
2011/10/22  28 Illinois 34 at  87 Purdue 24 82.8%
2011/10/29  28 Illinois 24 at  41 Penn State 25 49.1%
2011/11/12  25 Michigan 28 at  28 Illinois 31 67.9%
2011/11/19   2 Wisconsin 34 at  28 Illinois 24 16.2%
2011/11/26  28 Illinois 35 at 112 Minnesota 21 84.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-36.7
Most difficult game left: November 19, vs Wisconsin Badgers, 16.2%
Notes: Illinois has finally developed some offensive consistency under coordinator Paul Petrino, but they're going to need more defense to make it through Michigan and Wisconsin.


Michigan Wolverines
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.816 25 0.541 29 22.5 11 13.2 36 168.3 40

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03  88 Western Michigan 10 at  55 Michigan 34 81.3%
2011/09/10  31 Notre Dame 31 at  45 Michigan 35 34.7%
2011/09/17 117 Eastern Michigan 3 at  43 Michigan 31 94.1%
2011/09/24  58 SDSU 7 at  39 Michigan 28 58.7%
2011/10/01  94 Minnesota 0 at  33 Michigan 58 79.0%
2011/10/08  25 Michigan 42 at  74 Northwestern 24 77.0%
2011/10/15  25 Michigan 28 at  33 Michigan St. 27 58.8%
2011/10/29  87 Purdue 13 at  25 Michigan 45 91.0%
2011/11/05  25 Michigan 24 at  17 Iowa 28 41.3%
2011/11/12  25 Michigan 28 at  28 Illinois 31 32.1%
2011/11/19  26 Nebraska 28 at  25 Michigan 34 58.2%
2011/11/26  19 Ohio St. 27 at  25 Michigan 28 55.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-44.0
Most difficult game left: November 12, at Illinois Fighting Illini, 32.1%
Notes: The Wolverines play three coin tosses and two more as road underdogs.


Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.727 36 0.531 45 22.9 9 16.0 56 163.9 94

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/10  47 Georgia Tech 49 at  98 Middle Tenn. 21 88.0%
2011/09/17  88 Kansas 24 at  42 Georgia Tech 66 79.8%
2011/09/24  46 North Carolina 28 at  38 Georgia Tech 35 53.3%
2011/10/01  39 Georgia Tech 45 at  85 North Carolina St. 35 62.8%
2011/10/08  65 Maryland 16 at  36 Georgia Tech 21 52.8%
2011/10/15  36 Georgia Tech 38 at  82 Virginia 24 77.6%
2011/10/22  36 Georgia Tech 31 at  54 Miami-FL 28 65.3%
2011/10/29  10 Clemson 27 at  36 Georgia Tech 21 38.3%
2011/11/10  24 Virginia Tech 27 at  36 Georgia Tech 24 39.0%
2011/11/19  36 Georgia Tech 38 at  71 Duke 27 75.8%
2011/11/26  18 Georgia 27 at  36 Georgia Tech 24 34.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-50.1
Most difficult game left: November 26, vs Georgia Bulldogs, 34.8%
Notes: The Kansas blowout was impressive, but middling victories against lower-tier ACC teams aren't the hallmark of national champions.


Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.941 9 0.550 15 25.8 5 14.1 43 172.6 9

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/03 113 LA-Lafayette 34 at  12 Oklahoma St. 61 94.4%
2011/09/08  32 Arizona 14 at  10 Oklahoma St. 37 53.2%
2011/09/18   9 Oklahoma St. 59 at  59 Tulsa 33 70.7%
2011/09/24  10 Oklahoma St. 30 at  14 Texas A&M 29 52.7%
2011/10/08  89 Kansas 28 at   9 Oklahoma St. 70 89.9%
2011/10/15   9 Oklahoma St. 31 at  31 Texas 24 52.3%
2011/10/22   9 Oklahoma St. 31 at  29 Missouri 27 59.3%
2011/10/29  40 Baylor 28 at   9 Oklahoma St. 42 69.7%
2011/11/05  38 Kansas St. 24 at   9 Oklahoma St. 38 65.0%
2011/11/12   9 Oklahoma St. 38 at  46 Texas Tech 27 69.2%
2011/11/18   9 Oklahoma St. 41 at  76 Iowa St. 27 81.9%
2011/12/03   6 Oklahoma 28 at   9 Oklahoma St. 27 24.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-50.8
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 24.7%
Notes: RBA likes the Cowboys, but they have a tough road remaining: Texas, Missouri, and Oklahoma.


Absolute Phonies

Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.694 38 0.528 51 20.5 20 14.2 45 165.9 74

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds
2011/09/17 106 Kent St. 0 at  50 Kansas St. 37 83.5%
2011/09/24  42 Kansas St. 28 at  40 Miami-FL 24 44.9%
2011/10/01  50 Baylor 35 at  44 Kansas St. 36 57.8%
2011/10/08  29 Missouri 17 at  38 Kansas St. 24 45.4%
2011/10/15  38 Kansas St. 31 at  46 Texas Tech 32 45.2%
2011/10/22  38 Kansas St. 42 at  89 Kansas 24 80.4%
2011/10/29   6 Oklahoma 38 at  38 Kansas St. 21 15.0%
2011/11/05  38 Kansas St. 24 at   9 Oklahoma St. 38 35.0%
2011/11/12  20 Texas A&M 31 at  38 Kansas St. 28 34.4%
2011/11/19  38 Kansas St. 24 at  31 Texas 31 37.2%
2011/12/03  76 Iowa St. 21 at  38 Kansas St. 35 70.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-577.7
Most difficult game left: October 29, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 15.0%
Notes: K-state's victories to date haven't been as impressive as the humans would lead you to believe, and the Wildcats still have to play Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas A&M.


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