Week 13: The BCS Picture, Part II

This is the second half of yesterday's discussion of the BCS.  In that post we examined the title game and the Orange Bowl.  Today we look at the Fiesta, Sugar, and Rose Bowls.

Update: Yesterday I mistakenly said that the Orange Bowl would get first pick from the At-Large teams.  Upon further review of the BCS eligibility and selection rules it seems that the bowl that loses the top seed to the national title game gets first pick, followed by the bowl that loses the number two seed to the title game.  In this case -- assuming Florida finishes at #1 and Texas at #2 -- the Sugar Bowl will get first pick, followed by the Fiesta Bowl.  The full selection order would then be

1. Sugar (SEC champion replacement)
2. Fiesta (Big XII champion replacement)
3. Orange (at-large, will play ACC champion)
   
4. Fiesta (at-large, will play Big XII replacement)
5. Sugar (at-large, will play SEC replacement)

Alabama would fill the Sugar Bowl slot, which brings us to ...

Week 13: BCS Picture, Part I

The last time we looked in at the race for the National Title game (parts one and two) we examined each of the seven undefeated teams.  At the time the TFG numbers were bullish on Florida, Texas, Alabama, TCU, and Boise State, with questions about Iowa and Cincinnati.  Iowa has since dropped not one but two games and is highly unlikely to get an at-large bid.  Let's examine each of the five BCS bowl games, the likely participants, and the projected results.

BCS Title Game

Conventional wisdom says we're set to see a Florida/Texas title game, and TFG won't argue with that.  Florida is a 93.5% favorite over Florida State this weekend with a projected final score of 38-24.  Following that is the SEC title game against Alabama, in which the Gators are 59.4% favorites.  This is the most likely scenario, currently sitting at 55.5%.  The second-most likely scenario is Alabama defeats Auburn and Florida to earn their ticket to the title game (36.6%).  The only chances of seeing neither Florida nor Alabama on January 7th are

• Florida loses to Florida State and defeats Alabama
• Alabama loses to Auburn and defeats Florida
• Florida loses to Florida State AND Alabama loses to Auburn

Collectively these sit somewhere in the 1-in-12 category.  Texas, on the other hand, has a much smoother ride to an undefeated season.  TFG pegs them as 17-point favorites over A&M on Thursday and 9-point favorites over Nebraska in the Big XII title game.  If I were the Longhorns I'd be cheering for Florida State and Alabama over the next few weeks and here's why.

Longhorns			Opponent			Odds
(2)	Texas	31	(1)	Florida	32	56.7
(2)	Texas	31	(4)	Alabama	28	52.8

Either way it would be a close game, but there's a 4-point swing and a 9% shift in the odds.  Granted, Alabama's stats would improve if they defeat Florida, but as it stands the Longhorns would rather match up against the Tide instead of the Gators.

Orange Bowl

The Orangle Bowl will pit the ACC champion against an at-large BCS selection.  Since the Orange Bowl gets first pick amongst the "best of the rest", conventional wisdom says that undefeated Georgia Tech will host TCU on January 5th.  First, however, Tech has to win the ACC championship game against Clemson.  Tech already defeated the Tigers in Atlanta at the start of the season, 30-27 on a last-minute field goal.  Clemson has dropped two games since then: a stunner to Maryland, and a 14-10 home loss to TCU.

TFG numbers, however, currently list the Tigers as a 33-32 favorite over the Yellow Jackets.  Should Clemson defy conventional wisdom and win a trip to Miami, they earn the right to a rematch against the Horned Frogs.  While TCU would be the clear favorite in such a rematch they have reason to be worried; the Tigers held TCU to their lowest point total all season.  Only Clemson and Air Force have held TCU below 30 points all year.  But what does TFG tell us to expect in these matchups?

Horned Frogs			Opponent			Odds
(3)	TCU	36	(22)	Georgia Tech	30	86.1
(3)	TCU	32	(16)	Clemson	25	82.0

Either ACC team will have an uphill battle.  Compared to Tech, Clemson has the superior defense and would hope to keep TCU within striking distance. The Yellow Jackets will follow their usual formula and try to outgun the opposition. All signs point to another mid-major upset of a Big Six conference champion.

Tomorrow:  Projecting the Fiesta, Sugar, and Rose Bowls.

RBA and the BCS Log-Jam

RBA currently identifies the top five teams as having statistically indistinguishable records:  Texas, Boise State, Florida, TCU, and Pittsburgh.  What is particularly interesting about these five teams is that we cannot create an ordering based on expected head-to-head matchups.  The reasoning behind this is intuitive; teams simply match up better against certain other teams.  Given this information, who wins the national championship in a round robin home-and-home battle royale?  Full details after the jump.

Week 10: BCS Picture, Part II

And now, the thrilling conclusion of our BCS championship overview.

Alabama (8-0, #3 BCS, #5 TFG, 0.953 WPct, 0.572 SoS)

Alabama has had a solid season against good opponents, including (11) Virginia Tech and (23) Mississippi.  After that the quality of opponent drops off a bit, including (41) Arkansas, (50) South Carolina, and (51) Kentucky.  After last week's break, Alabama won't have to worry too much about strength of schedule the rest of the way.

Home		Visitors		Odds
(5) Alabama	17	(12) LSU	7	81.7
(49) Mississippi St.	17	(5) Alabama	24	89.4
(29) Auburn	17	(5) Alabama	24	84.8

Even with games against (12) LSU and (29) Auburn, Alabama has a 62% chance of finishing the year undefeated.  However the odds say that Alabama also has the potential to trip up in games against LSU or Auburn (Mississippi State should be less of an issue).  Their prize for finishing up undefeated?  All signs point to an SEC championship game against Florida.  More on that later.

Texas (#2 BCS, #3 TFG, 0.965 WPct,  0.583 SoS)

Texas has been impressive all season long, putting up double-digit wins on all opponents except for (8) Oklahoma.  That streak looks to continue for the rest of the season as Texas isn't going to face an opponent in the top 35 for the rest of the year, with their biggest challenge likely to be when (40) Kansas comes to visit.

Home		Visitors		Odds
(3) Texas	31	(67) UCF	14	98.0
(80) Baylor	17	(3) Texas	31	97.3
(3) Texas	38	(40) Kansas	24	95.7
(53) Texas A&M	17	(3) Texas	31	93.3

Even with four games remaining, Texas has an 85% chance of going undefeated going into the Big 12 championship game.  Right now their opponent is likely to be (54) Kansas State, who don't exactly pose a big threat to an undefeated pre-bowl season for the Longhorns.  Of all the teams in college football today, Texas looks to be the most likely to secure a BCS National Championship invitation.  Which brings us to ...

Florida (#1 BCS, #1 TFG, 0.972 WPct, 0.680 SoS)

Florida is currently the #1 team in the country across the polls -- including the TFG rankings -- and there doesn't seem to be a viable obstacle in Florida's path to the National Championship game until the SEC Championship.  A likely matchup with Alabama would give the Gators a run for their money, but with that exception Florida isn't likely to be challenged by anyone on their remaining schedule except Florida State.  And I use the word "challenged" very loosely.

Home		Visitors		Odds
(1) Florida	40	(89) Vanderbilt	16	99.3
(50) South Carolina	17	(1) Florida	24	93.9
(1) Florida	46	(106) FIU	17	99.6
(1) Florida	38	(38) Florida St.	24	96.4

Florida has a 90% chance of entering the SEC Championship game undefeated.  That's where it gets tricky for both Florida and Alabama, assuming that's the matchup (currently that's a 55% probable outcome of this season).  Assuming their winning percentages don't change and we consider Atlanta to be a neutral field, Florida is 63% likely to emerge as the winner.  Obviously should Alabama lose and end up not going to the SEC title game, it's likely that Florida's odds of making it to the National Championship game increase as they would have a weaker opponent in the SEC title game.  In fact the team Florida would be most likely to see in that game other than Alabama would be an LSU squad they've already defeated this year.

So there you have it.  As it stands the most likely National Championship game would pit undefeated Florida against undefeated Texas.  Although even this likely scenario has only roughly a 1-in-4 shot of happening.  This weekend will see crucial games for the SEC contenders, and next weekend we'll see if Iowa is for real or not.  Expect the championship picture to be much clearer on the evening of November 14th.

Week 10: BCS Picture, Part I

As of today there are seven undefeated teams in contention for the BCS Championship.  We'll take a look at each team, the opponents they face the remainder of the season, and what record they're likely to carry into the bowl picture.

Boise State (8-0, #7 BCS, #4 Tempo-Free Gridiron, 0.956 WPct, 0.391 SoS)

Boise State has played the least challenging schedule of any undefeated team and has one of the smoothest roads to the end of the season.  As of today their most difficult opponent for the remainder of the year will be LA Tech, whom they play this weekend, in which they are "only" 97% favorites.

Home		Visitors		Odds
(82) LA Tech	14	(4) Boise St.	24	97.0
(4) Boise St.	47	(96) Idaho	22	99.1
(90) Utah St.	17	(4) Boise St.	31	97.8
(4) Boise St.	38	(70) Nevada	24	97.7
(4) Boise St.	45	(118) New Mexico St.	14	99.8

There is only a 1-in-12 chance that Boise State will not end the season undefeated.  However, historically teams from outside the "Big Six" aren't invited to the National Championship game, especially if there are two undefeated teams from within the BCS conferences.  Things could get very interesting if Oregon wins out the remainder of their games -- a distinct possibility -- and starts getting serious National Championship talk themselves.  Shades of OU/Texas from last year, anyone?

TCU (8-0, #6 BCS, #2 TFG, 0.968 WPct, 0.486 SoS)

TCU is in a similar position as Boise State.  Currently undefeated, likely to win out the rest of their games, but clearly considered a second-tier team.  Their key wins this year are against Virginia, Clemson, Air Force, and BYU.  Not exactly a stunning resume, especially since Virginia has been in free-fall last the few weeks (losing at home to Duke will do that to your reputation) and Clemson is good on paper but can't seem to pull it together for the big games.  The rest of the year looks to be downhill for TCU, though.

Home		Visitors		Odds
(104) SDSU	14	(2) TCU	24	99.0
(2) TCU	24	(18) Utah	17	92.0
(100) Wyoming	15	(2) TCU	32	98.9
(2) TCU	42	(114) New Mexico	15	99.8

Other than the home game against Utah, TCU should be able to put it on cruise control for the rest of the season and still come out undefeated.  They have nearly a 90% chance of finishing the year with an unblemished record.  How the BCS will respond to two undefeated non-BCS teams remains to be seen.

Cincinnati (#5 BCS, #13 TFG, 0.858 WPct, 0.456 SoS)

Cincinnati is a team that the voters love, the BCS computers love, yet tempo-free stats remain unsure.  Their defensive rating (11.7) is respectable, yet their offensive efficiency (21.3) is keeping them out of the top 10.  It sounds odd to pick on a team that averages 39.1 PPG (6th in the NCAA), but the adjusted stats say that Cincinnati's less-than-average strength-of-schedule is hurting them here.  Sagarin agrees, pegging the Bearcats' SoS at 75th in the nation.  Cincinnati has a somewhat downhill schedule from here with three of their last four at home.  However, getting past West Virginia and Pittsburgh will be difficult.

Home		Visitors		Odds
(13) Cincinnati	24	(52) Connecticut	17	87.5
(13) Cincinnati	24	(27) West Virginia	17	78.4
(13) Cincinnati	24	(78) Illinois	17	94.5
(20) Pittsburgh	17	(13) Cincinnati	24	63.0

All together the Bearcats have a 41% chance of finishing the year undefeated, and are just as likely to finish the year with one loss.  Cincinnati is a good team but are even more overrated by the BCS than Boise State and TCU.

Iowa (#4 BCS, #14 TFG, 0.855 WPct, 0.559 SoS) 

The Hawkeyes have been on the knife's edge all season and have come out ahead each time.  They've defeated (48) Michigan State, (65) Michigan, and (83) Arkansas State by a combined margin of seven points.  Yet this is the same team that defeated Penn State on the road by 11.   As time passes, though, you have to wonder if the true Iowa team is the one that defeated Penn State on the road or the one that struggled to put away Indiana at home.

Home		Visitors		Odds
(14) Iowa	24	(75) Northwestern	17	94.2
(6) Ohio St.	17	(14) Iowa	7	82.3
(14) Iowa	24	(58) Minnesota	17	89.9

The entire Hawkeye season will come down to how they do on November 14th at Ohio State.  Right now the odds don't look good, with OSU pegged as 5-to-1 favorites.  Iowa has roughly a 1-in-6 shot of finishing the year undefeated, but a win over OSU bumps those odds up to nearly 5-in-6.  In short: we'll wait and see.

Tomorrow ... the thrilling conclusion of the Week 10 BCS picture.