Week 3: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Colorado (0.222); Arizona St. (0.212); Vanderbilt (0.212); Minnesota (0.202); Washington St. (0.165)

Biggest drops: UTSA (-0.191); Troy (-0.189); FL-Atlantic (-0.182); New Mexico St. (-0.174); Idaho (-0.165)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 16: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Appalachian St. (0.076); Florida St. (0.049); FIU (0.041); Idaho (0.037); Coastal Carolina (0.025)

Biggest drops: Miami-FL (-0.056); LA-Lafayette (-0.048); TCU (-0.032); LA-Monroe (-0.029); Georgia Southern (-0.026)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 10: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Fresno St. (0.146); Boston College (0.137); Ohio (0.125); Arkansas St. (0.120); Central Michigan (0.109)

Biggest drops: Virginia (-0.162); Idaho (-0.112); Utah (-0.111); LA-Lafayette (-0.104); UNLV (-0.096)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 4: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Texas (0.266); Duke (0.207); Illinois (0.206); Wake Forest (0.180); TCU (0.168)

Biggest drops: UAB (-0.279); Western Kentucky (-0.197); Arkansas (-0.168); Idaho (-0.161); LA Tech (-0.145)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 4: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: SDSU (0.100); Stanford (0.065); New Mexico St. (0.062); Idaho (0.062); Georgia (0.061)

Biggest drops: Oregon St. (-0.160); UAB (-0.089); Middle Tenn. (-0.086); North Carolina (-0.078); Tulsa (-0.070)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 15: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: LA-Lafayette (0.071); Idaho (0.059); Kansas St. (0.053); Ohio (0.037); Georgia Southern (0.030)

Biggest drops: TCU (-0.060); Colorado (-0.050); Navy (-0.040); Georgia State (-0.037); Florida (-0.031)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 5: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Tulane (0.124); Indiana (0.115); North Carolina St. (0.098); Baylor (0.077); Idaho (0.059)

Biggest drops: SDSU (-0.088); Michigan (-0.082); FIU (-0.074); Notre Dame (-0.073); Cincinnati (-0.063)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 15: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: North Texas (0.060); Nevada (0.049); Clemson (0.047); LA-Monroe (0.044); Baylor (0.032)

Biggest drops: Virginia Tech (-0.037); Texas (-0.035); Middle Tenn. (-0.034); Idaho (-0.032); Oklahoma (-0.028)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 8: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: SMU (0.165); Rutgers (0.099); Michigan St. (0.092); Mississippi (0.088); Washington (0.088)

Biggest drops: Pittsburgh (-0.161); Air Force (-0.081); Tulane (-0.078); Idaho (-0.068); Troy (-0.067)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 2: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Pittsburgh (0.066); Bowling Green (0.059); Ball St. (0.045); LA Tech (0.044); Wake Forest (0.041)

Biggest drops: Indiana (-0.073); Purdue (-0.061); Kentucky (-0.053); Idaho (-0.051); Florida St. (-0.039)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 2: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Michigan (0.110); Baylor (0.082); Florida St. (0.061); Bowling Green (0.059); Utah St. (0.058)

Biggest drops: Western Michigan (-0.104); Idaho (-0.065); Auburn (-0.061); Tulsa (-0.060); LA-Monroe (-0.051)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 7: Saturday Matchups

Last week's Game of the Week ended up coming down to a desperate Pitt drive that came up short against Notre Dame, with a similar situation in the Clemson/UNC game. Both ended up coming down to the favorite making a late drive that burned just enough clock to prevent a potential comeback. This week's GOTW should, by all metrics, be a better game than any of the ones we saw last week.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Auburn Tigers.
GUGS Score: 70.6

Justin: TFG has the (17) Tigers and (18) Razorbacks only three ten-thousandths apart in EWP, with the Tigers being 0.1 PPH better on offense and 0.1 PPH worse on offense. Given how close their EWPs are, those are each probably a rounding error. This is one of those games where there's really not much to be gained, but everything to be lost. A Razorback loss will plunge them effectively out of the SEC title race, whereas an Auburn loss will drop them to one loss, but with Arkansas holding the tiebreaker and the Alabama game on the horizon. These teams are each in the top 20 on both sides of the ball, so expect a close and hard-fought game. TFG says home field advantage tips this one to the Tigers, though, in a 35-31 victory.

Eddie:  RBA also thinks this one is going to be an incredibly tight game between two top 25 teams.  (19) Arkansas actually has the advantage on both sides of the ball because they have demonstrated consistency against a variety of opponent strengths.  The Razorbacks hold a 0.6 PPH offensive advantage and a 0.6 PPH defensive advantage.  (22) Auburn has home field on their side, which makes all the difference.  RBA predicts an Auburn victory, 28-24, with only 51.3% confidence.  This Hog fan is hoping for a mistake here.

BCS Game of the Week
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders.
GUGS Score: 66.3

Eddie: (33) Texas Tech is the toughest test to date for (32) Oklahoma State.  This game will certainly be exciting because Oklahoma State's 17.0 PPH is only marginally better than Texas Tech's 16.9 PPH.  However, it's tricky to figure out the accuracy of the Cowboy's offensive efficiency.  The defensive efficiency of their opponents are 26.3 PPH, 23.3 PPH, 26.3 PPH, 18.1 PPH, and 28.4 PPH.  On one hand, this could be due to the butt whoopin' the Cowboys offense laid on them.  On the other hand, the Cowboy offense could be a total fraud by laying the law down on terrible defenses.  Texas Tech is a bit easier to estimate because they played at least one good opponent.  We're about to find out if the Cowboys really mean business.  RBA isn't optimistic, picking the Red Raiders 34-28 with 53.6% confidence.

Justin: The (32) Cowboys visit the (39) Red Raiders in a game that will have north of 190 plays and nearly 80 points of offense. Neither team has a particularly excellent offense -- 23.4 PPH and 22.4 PPH, respectively -- or an atrocious defense -- 17.4 PPH and 17.2 PPH -- but both teams play at lightning speed and have just enough advantage on offense to make this one interesting. The Cowboys are undefeated but haven't played anyone of note. The Red Raiders have a loss to a floundering (13) Texas squad and an inexplicable loss to (72) Iowa State. They'll need a good showing against Oklahoma State in order to show that they can succeed without Mike Leach, and TFG says they'll get it in the form of a 39-36 victory.

BCS Upset Watch of the Week
North Carolina State Wolfpack at East Carolina Pirates.
GUGS Score: 56.4

Justin: Unfortunately we're in the part of the season where the AQ teams have given up on playing good non-AQ teams, so the pickings are slim. The next best BCS Upset Watch game after this one is (88) Army at (49) Rutgers, which TFG says breaks 3-to-1 in Rutgers' favor. No, instead we have (37) North Carolina State visiting the (64) Pirates. The Wolfpack have a top-25 offense that rings up 23.1 PPH, but a middle-50 defense that allows 18.1 PPH. ECU, on the other hand, is close to the very definition of a middle-of-the-road team; 19.5 PPH on offense, and 19.9 PPH on defense. They'll get a slight boost from playing at home, but TFG expects this close game to shake out in favor of the Wolfpack in the form of a 37-35 win.

Eddie: Another week, another ACC upset watch. RBA isn't sure why this game is here because it doesn't look that interesting.  (38) NC State has a consistent offense that varies only 13.2 PPH and a respectable defense that should hold the line at 14.9 PPH. (67) East Carolina has home field advantage, but a 4.7 PPH disadvantage.  RBA says this one isn't really that close with the Wolfpack pulling of a 34-28 victory with 67.2% probability.

Kids Table Game of the Week
Idaho Vandals at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
GUGS Score: 48.0

Eddie:  This is going to be the closest game that nobody watches.  (86) Idaho holds a 2.8 PPH offensive advantage over (85) Louisiana Tech, but the Bulldogs have a whopping 5.4 PPH defensive advantage.  The game is being played over 2,000 miles away from Moscow, so that only emphasizes the difference between the two teams' efficiencies.  RBA isn't very confident about it (51.7%), but if things fall according to plan, the Bulldogs should have themselves a 31-24 victory.

Justin: The (82) Vandals visit the (83) Bulldogs in a display of contrasting styles. The Idaho has managed to stay out of the cellar thanks to an offense that rings up 19.0 PPH, but can't climb any higher thanks to a defense that allows 23.7 PPH. Louisiana Tech, however, sports a respectable defense that only allows 17.6 PPH -- compare that to (32) Oklahoma State and their 17.4 PPH defense -- but an absolutely horrendous offense that only manages 13.9 PPH. The real question that will decide this game will be how the Bulldogs' offense manages against Idaho's porous defense. TFG says just well enough to give the Bulldogs a 35-31 victory at home.

Games you probably wanted us to preview:

South Carolina Gamecocks at Kentucky Wildcats
GUGS Score: 59.8

Both TFG and RBA like this game, but just not enough. Both give South Carolina a 60-ish percent chance of winning, which is actually much lower than what the press (and Vegas) predicts. Beating the (1) team has that effect on your rankings and your perceptions, even if one game ultimately doesn't mean that much, rankings-wise.

California Golden Bears at Southern California Trojans.
GUGS Score: 59.5

Both of our systems are relatively certain that USC is going to take this one, but expect it to be somewhat low-scoring. Under GUGS:TNG, this combination of relative certainty and low score means it doesn't make the cut.

Texas Longhorns at Nebraska Cornhuskers.
GUGS Score: 53.5

Up until a few weeks ago this was slated to be one of the games of the year. As it stands now, though, Texas has fallen too far and Nebraska has gotten too good to make this enough of a contest to catch our attention. Besides, doesn't ESPN have this one pretty well-covered?

2009 Bowl Previews: Part II

[ This should have been posted yesterday, but I had a bout of food poisoning yesterday.  Time to get back on track. ]

#32: Insight Bowl
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (39.6 CQR)
Eddie:  Neither (69) Iowa State or (64) Minnesota is particularly good offensively, especially since Eric Decker went down with an injury.  However, Minnesota plays relatively consistent defense.  Iowa State forces more turnovers, so they can make this a game.  RBA favors Minnesota, 27-24, but with a virtual coin flip at 52.5% confidence.
Justin: Both (68) Minnesota and (82) Iowa State sport similar defensive efficiencies (17.0 and 17.8 PPH, respectively) but Minnesota has a 2.3 PPH edge on the offensive end and has played a the 12-strongest schedule in the Bowl Division.  In an odd statistical convergence, TFG also favors Minnesota 27-24, but with a slightly higher confidence level.

#31: Humanitarian Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Idaho Vandals (40.4 CQR)
Justin: Expect this game to be the very definition of a shootout.  (77) Bowling Green might play lackluster defense by allowing 19.0 PPH, but the 86th-ranked Vandals are tied for having the 8th worse defensive efficiency by allowing 25.6 PPH.  They make up for it by having a slightly better offense than Bowling Green, but that's not saying much.  If you want to know the importance of a good defense, all you have to do is look at Idaho and Nebraska; both have identical offensive efficiencies (18.7) but Nebraska only allows 10.4 PPH.  This should be a fast and furious shootout, with Bowling Green taking the victory, 38-31.
Eddie:  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, well, you get the picture.  After being the idiot for picking Idaho a few weeks back, RBA decides to go the other way and pick (55) Bowling Green over (71) Idaho because they play better defense and turn the ball over 0.85 times fewer per game.  Expected score is 38-31 with 52.5% confidence.

#30: Little Caesar's Bowl
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Ohio Bobcats (40.6 CQR)
Eddie:  (73) Marshall has a serious drop-off against above-average opponents, whereas (35) Ohio holds their own against teams up until 0.620 winning percentages.  Not only that, Ohio is more opportunistic on defense, averaging 2.75 takeaways per game.  RBA says Ohio over Marshall, 24-17, with 62.8% confidence.
Justin: Although (70) Ohio and (84) Marshall are only separated by 14 spots in the standings, the difference in their expected winning percentage is quite staggering (0.451 to 0.310); this is what happens when Ohio has a nearly 2.0 PPH advantage on both sides of the ball.  Marshall is really going to need to step it up to make up for that gap, but TFG isn't optimistic, pegging Ohio as nearly 2-to-1 favorites to take home the 27-24 victory.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(82)	Iowa St.	24	(68)	Minnesota	27	63.5	(69)	Iowa St.	24	(64)	Minnesota	27	52.5
(77)	Bowling Green	38	(86)	Idaho	31	60.7	(55)	Bowling Green	38	(71)	Idaho	31	52.5
(84)	Marshall	24	(70)	Ohio	27	64.7	(73)	Marshall	17	(35)	Ohio	24	62.8

Week 13: Saturday Matchups

Once again we give you two games to watch, the coin toss game of the week, and the "No, You're An Idiot" game, in which Eddie and I explain how the other is just plain wrong.  Currently Eddie has been correct once, and I have yet to be correct.

Games of the Week

Utah Utes at Brigham Young Cougars
Justin: This game is a perfect example of why it's better to lose early in the season.  The 21st-ranked Cougars were crushed at home by (3) TCU 38-7 a month ago, whereas (20) Utah received their 55-28 shellacking from TCU on the road two weeks ago.  Both have similar strength of schedule and both have identical records.  But BYU is ranked four spots higher in the BCS and is a 7-point favorite.  The TFG numbers disagree, giving Utah a 4-point edge in this game, but only as a 53% favorite.  The Utes are thin at the running back position, but the good news is for them it's always been about defense.  If they can stop BYU's offense -- similar in adjusted efficiency to (12) Oregon -- they'll pull out the victory.
Eddie: RBA considers this a near toss-up because the teams have identical SoS-adjusted strengths.  (28) BYU is expected to put up 16.1 PPH, whereas (29) Utah should produce 17.1 PPH.  They have nearly identical tendencies with takeaways and penalties.  BYU tends to turn the ball over once more per game, but they're playing at home.  RBA favors BYU over Utah by a single point, 28-27, in what should be one of the best games of the day.  The winner of the turnover battle wins the Holy War.

Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Eddie: I love Paul Johnson and what he has done for (11) Georgia Tech.  They absolutely flatten teams with the flexbone, but RBA keeps them out of the top 10 because their defense has been terrible.  How bad?  I'm talking about Baylor-level bad, surrendering 15.4 PPH to average opponents.  On the bright side, they're consistently bad, so we expect similar performance against a (59) Georgia team looking to put the defensive ineptitude of the 2009 season behind them.  Barring a turnover-ridden game, the Yellow Jackets will out-play the Bulldogs on both sides of the ball, win decisively 41-24, and send Georgia defensive coordinator Willie Martinez to the unemployment office.
Justin: The (22) Yellow Jackets possess the third-most efficient offense in the nation behind only (1) Florida and (2) Texas.  Why, then, does TFG think so poorly of Tech that it has them 20 spots behind the Longhorns?  Defense, defense, defense.  And those three words are about as much defense as the 38th-ranked Bulldogs are going to see this weekend.  This is going to be a slow but high-scoring game, as both Tech and the Dawgs possess exceedingly average defenses; think Michigan or Washington for adjusted-efficiency analogs.  The Bulldogs' game plan needs to be all about slowing down Tech's offense because they shouldn't need to worry too much about scoring against the Yellow Jackets.  However, I remain skeptical about Georgia's ability to do just that, so look for Tech to walk away as 38-31 winners.

The "No, You're An Idiot" Game of the Week

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Duke Blue Devils
Justin: This didn't turn out so well for me last week, but I've got a better feeling about this game.  Mainly because my system picked (63) Wake Forest and Eddie's picked (81) Duke.  Yes, for football.  The Blue Devils had a reasonable streak in the middle of the season, defeating Maryland, North Carolina State, and Virginia.  In restrospect, however, defeating the 59th, 80th, and 89th ranked teams in the nation does not a BCS contender make, and the Blue Devils have slipped over the last several weeks.  Wake Forest has been playing well, but against tough competition.  Expect the Demon Deacons to put it all together this weekend and pull off the 27-24 victory.
Eddie: Newsflash!  (88) Wake Forest falls in the same category as (113) Maryland, (107) NC State, and (72) Virginia.  As miserable as (74) Duke has been lately, Wake Forest has been even worse.  Duke should put up 16.4 PPH against Wake's 14.5 PPH.  Duke also turns the ball over less frequently, takes the ball away more frequently, commits fewer penalties, and plays at home.  RBA is picking Duke over Wake Forest, 31-24, in a game where the Blue Devils simply make fewer mistakes than the Demon Deacons.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Utah State Aggies at Idaho Vandals
Eddie: (66) Idaho has made serious improvements since last year but has been run over by everybody with a solid pulse, losing to Washington, Nevada, Boise State, and Fresno State by a staggering score of 206-114.  Luckily for them, (102) Utah State has been on life support for a couple of seasons now.  Idaho has been very, very sloppy on occasion, surrendering as many as seven turnovers against Boise State.  Unlike the Broncos, the Aggies' sport one of the worst defenses in the country.  In this one, the Vandals simply suck less and are playing at home.  RBA says Idaho over Utah State, 34-20 with 73.2% odds.
Justin: This matchup isn't going to be on ESPN Prime-Time anytime soon, but this should be a good game.  The line has (90) Idaho as three-point favorites, but TFG likes (86) Utah State for the upset.  Neither team plays anything really really resembling "defense", but at least the Aggies have an adjusted efficiency resembling that of Georgia (19.8 PPH versus 19.2 PPH) whereas the Vandals have a porous defense with an AdjE of 25.6 PPH, good for 9th-worst in FBS.  The Aggies, however, make up for it with an offensive efficiency of 14.5 PPH.  This game isn't likely to be described in retrospect as "pretty", but expect a lot of scoring and for the game to be decided in Utah State's favor on a late drive.  Final score: 35-31.

Full predictions available here.