Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Week 8: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2013-10-13


Legitimate Title Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.976 1 0.502 59 27.4 6 6.8 1 147.7 124
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/31  45 Virginia Tech 10 vs   1 Alabama 35 157 96.7%
2013/09/14   1 Alabama 49 at   7 Texas A&M 42 167 72.9%
2013/09/21 108 Colorado St. 6 at   1 Alabama 31 138 99.5%
2013/09/28  31 Mississippi 0 at   1 Alabama 25 152 94.0%
2013/10/05  NA Georgia State 3 at   1 Alabama 45 134 99.9%
2013/10/12   1 Alabama 48 at  76 Kentucky 7 158 97.2%
2013/10/19  66 Arkansas 15 at   1 Alabama 35 154 98.7%
2013/10/26  54 Tennessee 20 at   1 Alabama 37 158 98.1%
2013/11/09   7 LSU 25 at   1 Alabama 31 155 86.3%
2013/11/16   1 Alabama 31 at  43 Mississippi St. 18 151 96.1%
2013/11/30   1 Alabama 32 at  42 Auburn 18 157 96.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.3
Most difficult game left: November 9, vs LSU Tigers, 86.3%


Louisville Cardinals
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.896 5 0.327 106 23.5 13 10.4 8 151.0 121
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/09/01  75 Ohio 7 at  39 Louisville 49 156 85.1%
2013/09/14  28 Louisville 27 at  94 Kentucky 13 161 80.5%
2013/09/21 118 FIU 0 at  28 Louisville 72 128 97.3%
2013/10/05  13 Louisville 30 at 104 Temple 7 145 94.3%
2013/10/10  51 Rutgers 10 at   6 Louisville 24 151 89.6%
2013/10/18  19 UCF 23 at   5 Louisville 29 153 80.0%
2013/10/26   5 Louisville 30 at  90 South Florida 18 155 92.7%
2013/11/08   5 Louisville 31 at  92 Connecticut 17 159 95.5%
2013/11/16  51 Houston 24 at   5 Louisville 34 169 86.3%
2013/11/23  83 Memphis 17 at   5 Louisville 30 155 94.1%
2013/12/05   5 Louisville 30 at  57 Cincinnati 20 156 88.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-2.0
Most difficult game left: October 18, vs UCF Knights, 80.0%


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Florida State Seminoles
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.945 2 0.505 57 30.0 3 10.3 6 158.0 107
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/09/02   6 Florida St. 41 at  30 Pittsburgh 13 140 62.7%
2013/09/14  84 Nevada 7 at   5 Florida St. 62 154 97.1%
2013/09/28   3 Florida St. 48 at  90 Boston College 34 163 96.2%
2013/10/05  52 Maryland 0 at   3 Florida St. 63 170 88.8%
2013/10/19   2 Florida St. 32 at   6 Clemson 29 166 57.6%
2013/10/26  61 North Carolina St. 19 at   2 Florida St. 38 165 96.7%
2013/11/02  26 Miami-FL 27 at   2 Florida St. 38 163 86.7%
2013/11/09   2 Florida St. 37 at  95 Wake Forest 17 163 97.8%
2013/11/16  41 Syracuse 23 at   2 Florida St. 37 164 91.1%
2013/11/23 120 Idaho 16 at   2 Florida St. 46 165 99.6%
2013/11/30   2 Florida St. 29 at   8 Florida 20 155 72.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.2
Most difficult game left: October 19, at Clemson Tigers, 57.6%


Oregon Ducks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.922 3 0.499 62 28.9 4 11.4 10 176.7 23
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/09/07   3 Oregon 59 at  64 Virginia 10 186 86.2%
2013/09/14  42 Tennessee 14 at   2 Oregon 59 175 93.6%
2013/09/28  62 California 16 at   2 Oregon 55 206 96.5%
2013/10/05   2 Oregon 57 at  96 Colorado 16 194 97.3%
2013/10/12   3 Oregon 45 at  15 Washington 24 183 65.2%
2013/10/19  68 Washington St. 21 at   3 Oregon 40 172 95.9%
2013/10/26  16 UCLA 27 at   3 Oregon 38 176 83.4%
2013/11/07   3 Oregon 33 at  12 Stanford 28 167 65.8%
2013/11/16  32 Utah 28 at   3 Oregon 37 170 81.0%
2013/11/23   3 Oregon 39 at  40 Arizona 27 179 86.1%
2013/11/29  35 Oregon St. 29 at   3 Oregon 38 171 82.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.3
Most difficult game left: November 7, at Stanford Cardinal, 65.8%


Northern Illinois Huskies
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.542 56 0.235 124 19.3 39 18.1 72 185.6 6
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/31  28 Northern Ill. 30 at  68 Iowa 27 198 75.2%
2013/09/14  48 Northern Ill. 45 at 123 Idaho 35 200 94.9%
2013/09/28  68 Northern Ill. 55 at  88 Purdue 24 175 55.6%
2013/10/05  54 Northern Ill. 38 at  95 Kent St. 24 187 74.5%
2013/10/12 117 Akron 20 at  52 Northern Ill. 27 202 94.9%
2013/10/19  56 Northern Ill. 36 at 115 Central Michigan 27 171 82.4%
2013/10/26 117 Eastern Michigan 23 at  56 Northern Ill. 41 169 95.8%
2013/11/02  56 Northern Ill. 35 at 124 Massachusetts 21 172 97.1%
2013/11/13  65 Ball St. 32 at  56 Northern Ill. 35 182 61.8%
2013/11/20  56 Northern Ill. 33 at  75 Toledo 30 173 62.4%
2013/11/26 118 Western Michigan 24 at  56 Northern Ill. 38 178 93.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.6
Most difficult game left: November 13, vs Ball State Cardinals, 61.8%


Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.849 10 0.571 39 26.8 8 14.0 29 164.8 72
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/31 111 Buffalo 20 at  19 Ohio St. 40 163 93.6%
2013/09/07  57 SDSU 7 at  23 Ohio St. 42 164 79.8%
2013/09/14  13 Ohio St. 52 at  69 California 34 206 79.2%
2013/09/28   5 Wisconsin 24 at  19 Ohio St. 31 159 40.9%
2013/10/05  15 Ohio St. 40 at  27 Northwestern 30 172 58.0%
2013/10/19  37 Iowa 23 at  10 Ohio St. 33 162 80.2%
2013/10/26  25 Penn State 26 at  10 Ohio St. 34 171 74.5%
2013/11/02  10 Ohio St. 39 at 107 Purdue 22 163 95.0%
2013/11/16  10 Ohio St. 36 at  60 Illinois 26 163 85.1%
2013/11/23  46 Indiana 32 at  10 Ohio St. 40 174 78.8%
2013/11/30  10 Ohio St. 34 at  27 Michigan 31 163 65.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.0
Most difficult game left: November 30, at Michigan Wolverines, 65.0%


Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.885 6 0.590 37 23.5 12 10.9 9 175.1 28
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/31   8 Georgia 35 at  22 Clemson 38 178 31.4%
2013/09/19  12 Clemson 26 at  40 North Carolina St. 14 178 58.8%
2013/09/28 103 Wake Forest 7 at  14 Clemson 56 174 97.4%
2013/10/05   4 Clemson 49 at  43 Syracuse 14 187 72.1%
2013/10/12  64 Boston College 14 at   5 Clemson 24 171 92.7%
2013/10/19   2 Florida St. 32 at   6 Clemson 29 166 42.4%
2013/10/26   6 Clemson 32 at  74 Maryland 23 170 86.6%
2013/11/02   6 Clemson 34 at  86 Virginia 20 174 92.9%
2013/11/14  45 Georgia Tech 25 at   6 Clemson 34 164 85.9%
2013/11/30   6 Clemson 30 at  15 South Carolina 28 166 64.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5.3
Most difficult game left: October 19, vs Florida State Seminoles, 42.4%


Baylor Bears
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.863 9 0.547 44 32.4 1 16.2 53 186.9 4
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/09/07 108 Buffalo 13 at  24 Baylor 70 187 96.1%
2013/09/21  98 LA-Monroe 7 at  17 Baylor 70 190 95.2%
2013/10/05  57 West Virginia 42 at   6 Baylor 73 205 89.8%
2013/10/12  14 Baylor 35 at  35 Kansas St. 25 166 59.6%
2013/10/19  52 Iowa St. 29 at   9 Baylor 46 181 88.5%
2013/10/26   9 Baylor 42 at 105 Kansas 25 177 93.6%
2013/11/07  14 Oklahoma 31 at   9 Baylor 39 175 63.8%
2013/11/16  30 Texas Tech 34 vs   9 Baylor 43 190 68.6%
2013/11/23   9 Baylor 44 at  33 Oklahoma St. 35 187 71.2%
2013/11/30   9 Baylor 39 at  36 TCU 30 172 73.0%
2013/12/07  34 Texas 34 at   9 Baylor 43 179 71.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-7.4
Most difficult game left: November 7, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 63.8%


Long Shots

Fresno State Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.581 49 0.349 103 21.8 23 19.3 86 186.5 5
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/29  42 Rutgers 51 at  44 Fresno St. 52 209 48.5%
2013/09/14  54 Fresno St. 35 at 101 Colorado 29 177 75.5%
2013/09/20  45 Boise St. 40 at  50 Fresno St. 41 212 57.9%
2013/09/28  56 Fresno St. 42 at 116 Hawaii 37 210 87.0%
2013/10/05  58 Fresno St. 61 at 120 Idaho 14 213 92.4%
2013/10/19 110 UNLV 29 at  49 Fresno St. 45 180 91.4%
2013/10/26  49 Fresno St. 32 at  73 SDSU 31 174 52.9%
2013/11/02  80 Nevada 32 at  49 Fresno St. 39 180 74.0%
2013/11/09  49 Fresno St. 36 at  76 Wyoming 33 181 63.1%
2013/11/23  98 New Mexico 30 at  49 Fresno St. 40 170 82.0%
2013/11/29  49 Fresno St. 37 at  88 SJSU 31 178 74.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-9.6
Most difficult game left: October 26, at San Diego State Aztecs, 52.9%


Missouri Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.781 20 0.615 25 21.2 26 13.2 20 172.4 37
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/09/07  75 Toledo 23 at  54 Missouri 38 163 79.8%
2013/09/21  46 Missouri 45 at  52 Indiana 28 209 42.6%
2013/09/28  97 Arkansas St. 19 at  37 Missouri 41 173 92.8%
2013/10/05  38 Missouri 51 at  51 Vanderbilt 28 176 49.6%
2013/10/12  28 Missouri 41 at  13 Georgia 26 175 27.0%
2013/10/19   8 Florida 24 at  20 Missouri 22 162 47.7%
2013/10/26  15 South Carolina 28 at  20 Missouri 29 164 58.0%
2013/11/02  54 Tennessee 27 at  20 Missouri 34 171 77.1%
2013/11/09  20 Missouri 32 at  81 Kentucky 23 167 83.9%
2013/11/23  20 Missouri 30 at  44 Mississippi 26 172 68.7%
2013/11/30  11 Texas A&M 39 at  20 Missouri 33 176 39.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-20.5
Most difficult game left: November 30, vs Texas A&M Aggies, 39.7%


Absolute Phonies

Miami Hurricanes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.760 26 0.529 48 24.3 10 15.8 46 169.3 54
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/30 106 FL-Atlantic 6 at  61 Miami-FL 34 173 81.7%
2013/09/07   6 Florida 16 at  33 Miami-FL 21 158 27.7%
2013/09/28  26 Miami-FL 49 at 105 South Florida 21 159 90.2%
2013/10/05  49 Georgia Tech 30 at  36 Miami-FL 45 157 66.5%
2013/10/17  26 Miami-FL 35 at  72 North Carolina 29 171 70.6%
2013/10/26  95 Wake Forest 21 at  26 Miami-FL 36 169 94.0%
2013/11/02  26 Miami-FL 27 at   2 Florida St. 38 163 13.3%
2013/11/09  38 Virginia Tech 24 at  26 Miami-FL 29 166 62.5%
2013/11/16  26 Miami-FL 38 at  63 Duke 30 171 77.6%
2013/11/23  86 Virginia 24 at  26 Miami-FL 34 171 86.5%
2013/11/29  26 Miami-FL 32 at  50 Pittsburgh 27 163 69.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-38.6
Most difficult game left: November 2, at Florida State Seminoles, 13.3%


Texas Tech Red Raiders
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.743 30 0.464 68 20.3 30 13.7 27 193.2 1
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/30  56 Texas Tech 41 at  52 SMU 23 216 44.9%
2013/09/12  31 TCU 10 at  38 Texas Tech 20 187 57.6%
2013/09/21 100 Texas State 7 at  38 Texas Tech 33 192 92.1%
2013/10/05  25 Texas Tech 54 at 100 Kansas 16 211 88.2%
2013/10/12  58 Iowa St. 35 at  31 Texas Tech 42 216 79.1%
2013/10/19  30 Texas Tech 32 at  55 West Virginia 30 183 59.2%
2013/10/26  30 Texas Tech 27 at  14 Oklahoma 32 178 28.9%
2013/11/02  33 Oklahoma St. 33 at  30 Texas Tech 34 190 57.6%
2013/11/09  31 Kansas St. 30 at  30 Texas Tech 32 174 54.8%
2013/11/16  30 Texas Tech 34 vs   9 Baylor 43 190 31.4%
2013/11/28  30 Texas Tech 33 at  34 Texas 31 183 53.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-109.4
Most difficult game left: October 26, at Oklahoma Sooners, 28.9%


What are YOU doing here??

UCLA Bruins
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.795 16 0.501 61 20.7 29 12.4 15 176.4 26
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/31  64 Nevada 20 at  49 UCLA 58 199 62.4%
2013/09/14  29 UCLA 41 at  22 Nebraska 21 185 29.7%
2013/09/21 123 New Mexico St. 13 at  23 UCLA 59 191 99.0%
2013/10/03  19 UCLA 34 at  28 Utah 27 192 48.5%
2013/10/12  78 California 10 at  19 UCLA 37 186 88.6%
2013/10/19  16 UCLA 26 at  12 Stanford 30 167 31.5%
2013/10/26  16 UCLA 27 at   3 Oregon 38 176 16.6%
2013/11/02 106 Colorado 21 at  16 UCLA 36 172 94.8%
2013/11/09  16 UCLA 31 at  40 Arizona 29 179 62.9%
2013/11/15  21 Washington 27 at  16 UCLA 29 173 57.4%
2013/11/23  22 Arizona St. 33 at  16 UCLA 35 176 52.8%
2013/11/30  16 UCLA 28 at  29 USC 26 164 56.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-186.6
Most difficult game left: October 26, at Oregon Ducks, 16.6%


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.577 51 0.325 107 19.0 41 16.9 66 187.2 3
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/09/07  70 Houston 22 at  85 Temple 13 202 46.6%
2013/09/21  68 Houston 31 at  64 Rice 26 184 36.6%
2013/09/28  71 Houston 59 at  80 UTSA 28 180 48.0%
2013/10/12  82 Memphis 15 at  55 Houston 25 172 75.2%
2013/10/19  17 BYU 29 at  51 Houston 28 183 37.5%
2013/10/26  51 Houston 28 at  53 Rutgers 31 179 38.7%
2013/10/31  90 South Florida 24 at  51 Houston 32 173 84.4%
2013/11/09  51 Houston 27 at  19 UCF 33 172 24.1%
2013/11/16  51 Houston 24 at   5 Louisville 34 169 13.7%
2013/11/23  57 Cincinnati 29 at  51 Houston 30 175 53.5%
2013/11/29  77 SMU 30 at  51 Houston 35 183 67.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-684.7
Most difficult game left: November 16, at Louisville Cardinals, 13.7%


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