Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Week 10: Top 25 -- TFG


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Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 8 - 0 ) 0.983 0.499 59 28.9 6 6.3 1 146.1 125
2 -- Florida St.  ( 6 - 0 ) 0.944 0.516 56 30.6 3 10.6 6 160.2 97
3 +1 Oregon  ( 7 - 0 ) 0.911 0.496 60 29.6 5 12.3 14 177.5 20
4 -1 Baylor  ( 6 - 0 ) 0.906 0.507 57 33.5 1 14.3 33 187.8 4
5 +1 Louisville  ( 6 - 1 ) 0.899 0.375 99 24.0 12 10.6 5 149.8 124
6 -1 Wisconsin  ( 4 - 2 ) 0.881 0.533 51 23.5 15 11.1 8 158.1 110
7 +3 Ohio St.  ( 7 - 0 ) 0.875 0.590 39 28.9 7 13.9 28 164.1 79
8 +8 Michigan St.  ( 6 - 1 ) 0.872 0.457 75 16.1 63 7.8 2 162.0 87
9 -2 LSU  ( 6 - 2 ) 0.848 0.598 33 24.5 11 12.9 19 162.5 84
10 -2 Stanford  ( 7 - 1 ) 0.846 0.603 31 21.3 23 11.3 9 156.7 114
11 +2 Texas A&M  ( 5 - 2 ) 0.845 0.662 15 31.1 2 16.4 56 181.7 14
12 -1 UCF  ( 6 - 1 ) 0.824 0.415 87 25.0 10 14.0 29 157.9 111
13 +5 BYU  ( 6 - 2 ) 0.823 0.590 36 19.1 36 10.7 7 184.8 8
14 -- Arizona St.  ( 4 - 2 ) 0.821 0.675 13 29.7 4 16.8 60 177.5 21
15 -6 Clemson  ( 6 - 1 ) 0.815 0.611 30 21.3 24 12.2 13 180.9 15
16 -4 Missouri  ( 6 - 1 ) 0.804 0.655 16 22.0 20 13.0 20 175.6 28
17 +7 Kansas St.  ( 3 - 3 ) 0.801 0.641 21 23.6 14 14.0 30 156.1 116
18 -3 Florida  ( 4 - 3 ) 0.798 0.642 20 15.9 68 9.5 3 152.2 122
19 -2 Georgia  ( 4 - 3 ) 0.794 0.711 7 25.7 8 15.5 43 166.5 66
20 -1 Oklahoma  ( 7 - 1 ) 0.784 0.566 46 22.6 17 13.9 27 162.0 86
21 -1 South Carolina  ( 6 - 2 ) 0.784 0.624 25 20.8 26 12.8 17 160.6 92
22 NA Notre Dame  ( 6 - 2 ) 0.784 0.621 28 19.5 33 12.0 12 163.3 81
23 -- Oklahoma St.  ( 5 - 1 ) 0.778 0.571 45 22.6 18 14.1 32 188.3 2
24 NA USC  ( 5 - 3 ) 0.770 0.631 24 18.1 46 11.5 10 154.4 119
25 -3 Michigan  ( 6 - 1 ) 0.761 0.467 71 25.2 9 16.3 55 162.2 85
Rankings through games of 2013-10-27
Data from CFBStats

New entries: Notre Dame, USC.

Dropped out: Boise St., Miami-FL.

Alabama and Florida State continue to cruise. Oregon let UCLA hang around for a half, and then put them away. Baylor's offense continues to be utterly dominant, but their lackluster defense is probably going to catch up to them at some point (see: last year's WVU squad).

Ohio State continues to make inroads and is a much better team than last year. I'm not sure what their ceiling is yet, but they continue to let other teams score too many points, even if they do win in the end. The good news for Buckeye fans is that their two most difficult games -- Wisconsin and Northwestern -- are behind them, and only Michigan has a real shot at defeating them (although Indiana could make it interesting). The likely title matchup between Michigan State and Ohio State would be an unstoppable-force-immovable-object scenario, though, as the Spartans' defense is second to only Alabama's.

Speaking of the Spartans, Michigan State is finally starting to find that offense they needed. If that's the case, it's becoming more and more likely that they'll represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl.

I want to take a second to focus on two teams that are notable for their relationship to my top 25: Miami-FL and Kansas State. The Hurricanes probably have the largest gap between human perception (undefeated and currently ranked #7 in the BCS, but not even in the top 25 here). They've eeked out close wins against UNC and Wake Forest the last two weeks, but don't expect Florida State to go easy on them. The FSU offense is #3 in the nation, and the Miami defense just isn't equipped to handle that. Miami is basically Clemson, but with a slightly worse defense.

Kansas State, on the other hand, is in the top 25. Why is that? The short answer is that they've done very well against an extremely difficult schedule so far. They're the only team to hold the Bears to fewer than 8 touchdowns (yes, eight) and have lost to (1) the Bears, (2) a resurgent Texas team, (3) Oklahoma State at OSU, and (4) the #1 team in FCS, which can legitimately be ranked ahead of Virginia Tech, Michigan, and Notre Dame. TFG rankings don't look to reward a team for their performance, but to predict how they'll do in the future. Based on that metric, the Wildcats rate somewhere between Missouri and Florida in terms of "would-we-want-to-play-them".

Tomorrow we'll take a look at the undefeated picture.


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