Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2012-11-25

Two teams have finished out their season undefeated and they ... will not face each other for the title. Thanks to Tattoo-gate, the Ohio State Buckeyes are banned from postseason play this year, and won't even get a chance to play for the Big Ten title. In a way this might actually be good for Ohio State, since TFG ranks them just behind 2006 Boise State and 2004 Utah in terms of undefeated regular season teams that didn't or couldn't play for a title. An interesting footnote: the coach of that 2004 Utah squad with the top-notch offense and middling defense? Urban Meyer.

This brings us to Notre Dame. I've seen many stories talking about how the Irish won't stack up to the SEC champion and will be exposed as frauds in the title game. I will say that if Notre Dame plays Alabama, they will be significant underdogs. But if somehow they get matched up with Georgia, that will be much more of a fair fight. Notre Dame has good wins over (8) Stanford, (9) Oklahoma, (16) Michigan, (18) USC, and (20) Michigan State. TFG ranks their SOS at #21, which is pretty even with Alabama (#19) and miles ahead of Georgia (#50).

The clear favorite for the title right now, though, is Alabama. TFG has them as 90% likely to beat Georgia, and currently puts them as 82.1% against Notre Dame. The Crimson Tide have the top-rated offense and the top-rated defense in FBS. The Irish have the second-best defense, but lag behind both Alabama and Georgia in offense; they've been able to move the ball, but have had trouble getting it into the end zone (see: five FGs against USC, including three from inside the 12).

Georgia has the most difficult path, though. They're heavy underdogs to Alabama (only 10% likely to win), and as it stands right now they'd have a 1-in-3 shot against Notre Dame. This adds up to a 3.4% chance of the Bulldogs taking the BCS title. Georgia has the weakest defense of the three contenders, and definitely has the weakest SOS. The only TFG top 25 the Bulldogs have faced this year are (4) Florida and (11) South Carolina. In their win over Florida, the Gators coughed up the ball six times, and the Bulldogs got 10 of their 17 points on drives that started inside the Gator 30 thanks to Florida turnovers. That type of luck won't strike twice, so Georgia will really need to play better defense to slow down Alabama.

In short, here are your current BCS title odds:

WinnerOdds
Alabama73.9%
Notre Dame     22.7%
Georgia3.4%

Locks

Ohio State Buckeyes*
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.762 19 0.530 52 28.8 8 18.1 37 162.1 83

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  80 Miami-OH 10 at  22 Ohio St. 56 193 89.0%
2012/09/08  52 UCF 16 at  15 Ohio St. 31 161 83.7%
2012/09/15  47 California 28 at  13 Ohio St. 35 176 84.0%
2012/09/22 114 UAB 15 at  16 Ohio St. 29 165 97.4%
2012/09/29  19 Ohio St. 17 at  16 Michigan St. 16 156 35.5%
2012/10/06  18 Nebraska 38 at  20 Ohio St. 63 166 58.2%
2012/10/13  14 Ohio St. 52 at  86 Indiana 49 195 83.5%
2012/10/20  68 Purdue 22 at  19 Ohio St. 29 164 84.5%
2012/10/27  19 Ohio St. 35 at  23 Penn State 23 174 41.5%
2012/11/03  98 Illinois 22 at  17 Ohio St. 52 175 90.4%
2012/11/17  19 Ohio St. 21 at  10 Wisconsin 14 169 38.7%
2012/11/24  14 Michigan 21 at  19 Ohio St. 26 142 45.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.887 2 0.606 21 25.7 24 11.3 2 157.6 103

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  59 Navy 10 vs  16 Notre Dame 50 150 74.7%
2012/09/08  71 Purdue 17 at  13 Notre Dame 20 172 90.6%
2012/09/15  16 Notre Dame 20 at   9 Michigan St. 3 165 30.7%
2012/09/22  24 Michigan 6 at  11 Notre Dame 13 133 74.3%
2012/10/06  11 Notre Dame 41 vs  44 Miami-FL 3 154 78.0%
2012/10/13  10 Stanford 13 at   4 Notre Dame 20 165 65.5%
2012/10/20  31 BYU 14 at   4 Notre Dame 17 145 84.8%
2012/10/27   6 Notre Dame 30 at   3 Oklahoma 13 166 32.0%
2012/11/03  36 Pittsburgh 26 at   3 Notre Dame 29 199 83.9%
2012/11/10   4 Notre Dame 21 at  97 Boston College 6 150 93.5%
2012/11/17  94 Wake Forest 0 at   5 Notre Dame 38 152 94.0%
2012/11/24   2 Notre Dame 22 at  18 USC 13 142 71.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2012-11-25


Florida Gators
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.874 4 0.674 5 26.7 18 12.3 4 156.7 109

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  98 Bowling Green 14 at  18 Florida 27 173 93.1%
2012/09/08  21 Florida 20 at  19 Texas A&M 17 159 34.8%
2012/09/15  19 Florida 37 at  36 Tennessee 20 168 55.0%
2012/09/22  74 Kentucky 0 at  15 Florida 38 157 89.6%
2012/10/06   2 LSU 6 at   9 Florida 14 147 36.4%
2012/10/13   6 Florida 31 at  71 Vanderbilt 17 162 83.8%
2012/10/20   6 South Carolina 11 at   8 Florida 44 162 55.9%
2012/10/27  28 Georgia 17 vs   4 Florida 9 157 76.8%
2012/11/03  34 Missouri 7 at   6 Florida 14 169 80.8%
2012/11/10  71 LA-Lafayette 20 at   5 Florida 27 146 91.0%
2012/11/24   5 Florida 37 at   4 Florida St. 26 161 48.0%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.0

Oregon Ducks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.865 5 0.548 44 31.8 2 15.1 11 180.5 8

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  64 Arkansas St. 34 at   6 Oregon 57 208 91.2%
2012/09/08  85 Fresno St. 25 at   6 Oregon 42 199 95.1%
2012/09/22  38 Arizona 0 at   8 Oregon 49 200 84.0%
2012/09/29  99 Washington St. 26 vs   4 Oregon 51 194 95.1%
2012/10/06  65 Washington 21 at   4 Oregon 52 182 90.1%
2012/10/18   7 Oregon 43 at  26 Arizona St. 21 194 62.0%
2012/10/27 116 Colorado 14 at   5 Oregon 70 165 98.4%
2012/11/03   7 Oregon 62 at  16 USC 51 191 61.6%
2012/11/10   7 Oregon 59 at  63 California 17 177 84.0%
2012/11/17   9 Stanford 17 at   3 Oregon 14 187 57.6%
2012/11/24   6 Oregon 48 at  24 Oregon St. 24 189 69.7%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.0

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.973 1 0.612 19 38.3 1 9.1 1 147.8 124

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  14 Michigan 14 vs   1 Alabama 41 148 91.3%
2012/09/08  86 Western Kentucky 0 at   1 Alabama 35 130 99.2%
2012/09/15   1 Alabama 52 at  17 Arkansas 0 149 89.4%
2012/09/22 118 FL-Atlantic 7 at   1 Alabama 40 142 99.9%
2012/09/29  70 Mississippi 14 at   1 Alabama 33 154 99.1%
2012/10/13   1 Alabama 42 at  33 Missouri 10 151 94.8%
2012/10/20   1 Alabama 44 at  48 Tennessee 13 149 95.9%
2012/10/27  21 Mississippi St. 7 at   1 Alabama 38 148 96.4%
2012/11/03   1 Alabama 21 at   2 LSU 17 161 82.5%
2012/11/10   8 Texas A&M 29 at   1 Alabama 24 166 89.9%
2012/11/24  75 Auburn 0 at   1 Alabama 49 139 97.5%
2012/12/01  14 Georgia 29 vs   1 Alabama 42 154 90.0%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.1
Most difficult game left: December 1, vs Georgia Bulldogs, 90.0%
Notes:



Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.782 15 0.601 24 31.2 3 18.7 42 154.7 118

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/08  36 Miami-FL 13 at  30 Kansas St. 52 150 65.6%
2012/09/15  86 North Texas 21 at  25 Kansas St. 35 135 90.1%
2012/09/22  23 Kansas St. 24 at   5 Oklahoma 19 156 19.0%
2012/10/06 101 Kansas 16 at  22 Kansas St. 56 151 92.9%
2012/10/13  20 Kansas St. 27 at  47 Iowa St. 21 164 60.4%
2012/10/20  18 Kansas St. 55 at  30 West Virginia 14 147 50.4%
2012/10/27  22 Texas Tech 24 at  14 Kansas St. 55 166 70.4%
2012/11/03  12 Oklahoma St. 30 at  11 Kansas St. 44 169 54.4%
2012/11/10  11 Kansas St. 23 at  21 TCU 10 146 57.1%
2012/11/17  11 Kansas St. 24 at  43 Baylor 52 190 75.4%
2012/12/01  21 Texas 35 at  15 Kansas St. 38 156 56.6%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.8
Most difficult game left: December 1, vs Texas Longhorns, 56.6%
Notes:



Georgia Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.800 14 0.534 50 28.4 10 16.3 21 161.6 87

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01 112 Buffalo 23 at  20 Georgia 45 168 96.7%
2012/09/08  25 Georgia 41 at  22 Missouri 20 187 35.2%
2012/09/15 118 FL-Atlantic 20 at  20 Georgia 56 164 98.6%
2012/09/22  61 Vanderbilt 3 at  21 Georgia 48 167 80.1%
2012/09/29  54 Tennessee 44 at  18 Georgia 51 182 82.5%
2012/10/06  19 Georgia 7 at   8 South Carolina 35 153 30.6%
2012/10/20  23 Georgia 29 at  96 Kentucky 24 162 78.8%
2012/10/27  28 Georgia 17 vs   4 Florida 9 157 23.2%
2012/11/03  53 Mississippi 10 at  23 Georgia 37 155 70.6%
2012/11/10  19 Georgia 38 at  62 Auburn 0 139 71.7%
2012/11/24  49 Georgia Tech 10 at  16 Georgia 42 158 73.2%
2012/12/01  14 Georgia 29 vs   1 Alabama 42 154 10.0%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-10.0
Most difficult game left: December 1, vs Alabama Crimson Tide, 10.0%
Notes:


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