Monday, November 12, 2012

Week 12: Top 25 -- RBA


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 1.000 0.548 16 25.6 3 6.1 1 156.3 124
2 -- Oregon 0.992 0.529 48 28.6 1 11.8 24 176.9 2
3 +4 Notre Dame 0.984 0.566 1 17.9 40 8.3 3 164.6 95
4 -- Kansas St. 0.983 0.533 45 26.3 2 13.0 31 165.6 83
5 -- Florida 0.975 0.557 5 17.8 41 8.8 4 161.2 114
6 -3 LSU 0.975 0.549 15 23.4 5 8.2 2 160.1 116
7 +2 Texas A&M 0.950 0.556 9 25.1 4 11.2 18 173.5 10
8 -2 Oklahoma 0.950 0.545 22 22.5 11 10.3 12 171.6 18
9 -1 South Carolina 0.949 0.545 25 23.3 6 9.9 8 157.9 123
10 +2 Georgia 0.949 0.544 27 23.1 9 11.3 21 160.0 117
11 +4 Stanford 0.931 0.542 31 20.6 23 10.2 11 167.0 64
12 -2 Boise St. 0.924 0.465 93 19.1 32 9.7 7 168.1 48
13 -- Ohio St. 0.914 0.529 49 21.8 17 13.5 38 159.8 118
14 +3 Rutgers 0.912 0.497 68 16.3 60 10.4 13 164.6 91
15 -1 Florida St. 0.906 0.548 17 22.0 15 8.8 5 165.9 76
16 -5 Oklahoma St. 0.898 0.552 10 22.4 13 13.9 41 173.9 8
17 +2 USC 0.897 0.534 44 23.3 7 11.2 19 167.0 65
18 -2 Wisconsin 0.897 0.529 50 21.6 21 11.2 20 161.5 112
19 -1 Clemson 0.882 0.528 52 23.1 8 13.2 34 167.7 54
20 +1 Nebraska 0.855 0.535 42 20.3 25 13.2 35 167.2 61
21 -1 Michigan 0.843 0.543 29 21.8 19 10.9 17 166.8 70
22 +1 Michigan St. 0.838 0.546 21 15.5 71 10.0 10 167.0 66
23 -1 BYU 0.835 0.485 75 17.5 45 9.9 9 168.9 33
24 -- Utah St. 0.821 0.496 69 16.5 55 10.8 15 168.7 38
25 NA UCLA 0.804 0.545 24 19.0 33 14.6 52 168.2 45
Rankings through games of 2012-11-11


New entries: UCLA.

Dropped out: Arizona St.


Now is the time to remind readers that RBA does not attempt to identify the most deserving teams to play in the national championship.  Furthermore, we have absolutely zero impact on the actual BCS.  RBA attempts to identify who would win if any two teams played and predict the final score.  Personally, I'm not going to sit here and say that Alabama should play in the national championship game over undefeated Oregon, Kansas State, or Notre Dame.  It's in this context that Alabama remains the #1 team in the RBA poll.  If they played next Saturday, RBA would still pick Alabama to beat Texas A&M or any of the other undefeated teams.

The top four teams stack up as follows:

Team Offensive Efficiency Defensive Efficiency
(1) Alabama 31.9 +/- 12.7 PPH 2.2 +/- 7.8 PPH
(2) Oregon 33.9 +/- 10.7 PPH 4.2 +/- 15.3 PPH
(3) Notre Dame 23.9 +/- 11.9 PPH 8.1 +/- 0.4 PPH
(4) Kansas State 34.7 +/- 17.0 PPH 9.3 +/- 7.3 PPH

As discussed previously, Alabama is still the most likely to win in a heads up matchup because they're efficient on both sides of the ball.  Oregon has the strongest offense against top competition, but they're prone to surrendering lots of points against stronger competition.  This data is likely biased by their tendency to let off the throttle late in the game, but they didn't help themselves by surrendering 51 to Southern Cal.  Notre Dame plays the most consistent defense of the bunch (and is actually playing better against top competition than the Crimson Tide), but they lack the offensive firepower to keep up with Oregon and Alabama.  Kansas State can light up the scoreboard (not as well as the Ducks), but their defense makes it a necessity.


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