Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Week 11: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2012-11-04

With only a few weeks to go in the regular season, the top four contenders for the title game all appear to have a downhill road to an undefeated record. TFG pegs Alabama and Notre Dame as the two favorites to win out. The Crimson Tide will have to face either Florida or Georgia in the SEC title game; even with that, TFG has Alabama at approximately 82% likely to remain undefeated by mid-December. Notre Dame has no conference title, but is not as good and has a tough game left in (16) USC. How the Golden Domers handle the Trojans will be the yardstick by which voters -- and the computers -- measure Notre Dame against Oregon. A big win there will provide ammunition for the argument that Notre Dame be sacrificed to Alabama.

Oregon's path is a bit more cloudy. TFG still respects Stanford, but honestly I think the computer underrates Oregon and overrates Stanford this year. The Ducks have a better-than-54% chance against the Cardinal, but I honestly don't know how much better. As for their conference title, there's the possibility of a three-way tie at the top of the Pac-12 South (USC, UCLA, and Arizona State all at 5-4). If

  • Arizona State beats USC and splits their WSU and Arizona games; and
  • USC beats UCLA, then loses to ASU; and
  • UCLA loses to USC and either Stanford or WSU; then

we'll have a three-way tie with ASU, USC, and UCLA all at 5-4 and 1-1 records against the other two.

In TFG's digital mind, Kansas State is on the outside looking in, although the BCS currently doesn't see it that way; they rate the Wildcats second, followed by Oregon and then Notre Dame. Interestingly enough, it's the lobotomized BCS computers who are pushing Kansas State ahead of Oregon, while the human polls have those two teams swapped.

As we stand, though, there's currently a 3.5% chance that all four teams will reach mid-December with no losses, at which point the arguments from all corners will be epic.

Full details after the jump.


Legitimate Title Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.977 1 0.619 21 40.4 1 9.0 1 149.3 124

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  15 Michigan 14 vs   1 Alabama 41 148 91.3%
2012/09/08  77 Western Kentucky 0 at   1 Alabama 35 130 99.2%
2012/09/15   1 Alabama 52 at  30 Arkansas 0 149 89.4%
2012/09/22 113 FL-Atlantic 7 at   1 Alabama 40 142 99.9%
2012/09/29  60 Mississippi 14 at   1 Alabama 33 154 99.1%
2012/10/13   1 Alabama 42 at  39 Missouri 10 151 94.8%
2012/10/20   1 Alabama 44 at  47 Tennessee 13 149 95.9%
2012/10/27  34 Mississippi St. 7 at   1 Alabama 38 148 96.4%
2012/11/03   1 Alabama 21 at   2 LSU 17 161 82.5%
2012/11/10   8 Texas A&M 29 at   1 Alabama 45 167 89.9%
2012/11/24  62 Auburn 23 at   1 Alabama 47 152 97.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.1
Most difficult game left: November 10, vs Texas A&M Aggies, 89.9%



Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.873 4 0.653 11 26.0 23 12.0 4 161.5 82

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  69 Navy 10 vs   4 Notre Dame 50 150 74.7%
2012/09/08  78 Purdue 17 at   4 Notre Dame 20 172 90.6%
2012/09/15   4 Notre Dame 20 at  20 Michigan St. 3 165 30.7%
2012/09/22  15 Michigan 6 at   4 Notre Dame 13 133 74.3%
2012/10/06   4 Notre Dame 41 vs  55 Miami-FL 3 154 78.0%
2012/10/13   9 Stanford 13 at   4 Notre Dame 20 165 65.5%
2012/10/20  22 BYU 14 at   4 Notre Dame 17 145 84.8%
2012/10/27   4 Notre Dame 30 at   6 Oklahoma 13 166 32.0%
2012/11/03  29 Pittsburgh 26 at   4 Notre Dame 29 199 83.9%
2012/11/10   4 Notre Dame 38 at  97 Boston College 22 163 93.5%
2012/11/17  87 Wake Forest 23 at   4 Notre Dame 39 164 92.8%
2012/11/24   4 Notre Dame 35 at  16 USC 33 162 68.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.7
Most difficult game left: November 24, at USC Trojans, 68.2%



Second-Tier Hopefuls

Oregon Ducks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.854 7 0.507 59 32.7 3 16.1 17 180.0 9

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  66 Arkansas St. 34 at   7 Oregon 57 208 91.2%
2012/09/08  49 Fresno St. 25 at   7 Oregon 42 199 95.1%
2012/09/22  53 Arizona 0 at   7 Oregon 49 200 84.0%
2012/09/29 103 Washington St. 26 vs   7 Oregon 51 194 95.1%
2012/10/06  70 Washington 21 at   7 Oregon 52 182 90.1%
2012/10/18   7 Oregon 43 at  37 Arizona St. 21 194 62.0%
2012/10/27 120 Colorado 14 at   7 Oregon 70 165 98.4%
2012/11/03   7 Oregon 62 at  16 USC 51 191 61.6%
2012/11/10   7 Oregon 44 at  63 California 30 173 84.0%
2012/11/17   9 Stanford 37 at   7 Oregon 40 169 54.2%
2012/11/24   7 Oregon 42 at  28 Oregon St. 33 171 74.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.0
Most difficult game left: November 17, vs Stanford Cardinal, 54.2%



Long Shots

Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.816 11 0.599 27 35.3 2 19.4 47 153.9 118

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/08  55 Miami-FL 13 at  11 Kansas St. 52 150 65.6%
2012/09/15  95 North Texas 21 at  11 Kansas St. 35 135 90.1%
2012/09/22  11 Kansas St. 24 at   6 Oklahoma 19 156 19.0%
2012/10/06 105 Kansas 16 at  11 Kansas St. 56 151 92.9%
2012/10/13  11 Kansas St. 27 at  50 Iowa St. 21 164 60.4%
2012/10/20  11 Kansas St. 55 at  41 West Virginia 14 147 50.4%
2012/10/27  33 Texas Tech 24 at  11 Kansas St. 55 166 70.4%
2012/11/03  14 Oklahoma St. 30 at  11 Kansas St. 44 169 54.4%
2012/11/10  11 Kansas St. 40 at  21 TCU 36 159 57.1%
2012/11/17  11 Kansas St. 48 at  46 Baylor 37 170 76.2%
2012/12/01  24 Texas 37 at  11 Kansas St. 42 157 63.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.6
Most difficult game left: November 10, at TCU Horned Frogs, 57.1%



Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.757 17 0.489 63 30.0 6 19.0 43 162.1 77

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01 112 Miami-OH 10 at  17 Ohio St. 56 193 89.0%
2012/09/08  32 UCF 16 at  17 Ohio St. 31 161 83.7%
2012/09/15  63 California 28 at  17 Ohio St. 35 176 84.0%
2012/09/22 107 UAB 15 at  17 Ohio St. 29 165 97.4%
2012/09/29  17 Ohio St. 17 at  20 Michigan St. 16 156 35.5%
2012/10/06  18 Nebraska 38 at  17 Ohio St. 63 166 58.2%
2012/10/13  17 Ohio St. 52 at  75 Indiana 49 195 83.5%
2012/10/20  78 Purdue 22 at  17 Ohio St. 29 164 84.5%
2012/10/27  17 Ohio St. 35 at  25 Penn State 23 175 41.6%
2012/11/03 100 Illinois 22 at  17 Ohio St. 52 175 90.4%
2012/11/17  17 Ohio St. 37 at  13 Wisconsin 39 157 44.1%
2012/11/24  15 Michigan 38 at  17 Ohio St. 36 157 47.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.8
Most difficult game left: November 17, at Wisconsin Badgers, 44.1%



Louisville Cardinals
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.635 36 0.488 64 28.1 10 22.5 73 151.9 122

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/02 106 Kentucky 14 at  36 Louisville 32 162 81.5%
2012/09/15  35 North Carolina 34 at  36 Louisville 39 154 72.4%
2012/09/22  36 Louisville 28 at  93 FIU 21 149 70.3%
2012/09/29  36 Louisville 21 at  91 Southern Miss. 17 142 57.9%
2012/10/13  36 Louisville 45 at  29 Pittsburgh 35 155 42.1%
2012/10/20  56 South Florida 25 at  36 Louisville 27 164 69.9%
2012/10/26  26 Cincinnati 31 at  36 Louisville 34 178 51.1%
2012/11/03  74 Temple 17 at  36 Louisville 45 152 69.3%
2012/11/10  36 Louisville 37 at  58 Syracuse 35 160 57.5%
2012/11/24  79 Connecticut 29 at  36 Louisville 36 155 73.2%
2012/11/29  36 Louisville 33 at  31 Rutgers 35 154 48.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.9
Most difficult game left: November 29, at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 48.6%


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