| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Adjusted | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||||||
| 1 | -- | Alabama | 0.973 | 0.612 | 19 | 38.3 | 1 | 9.1 | 1 | 147.8 | 124 |
| 2 | -- | Notre Dame | 0.887 | 0.606 | 21 | 25.7 | 24 | 11.3 | 2 | 157.6 | 103 |
| 3 | -- | LSU | 0.880 | 0.669 | 7 | 27.1 | 14 | 12.2 | 3 | 162.5 | 80 |
| 4 | +1 | Florida | 0.874 | 0.674 | 5 | 26.7 | 18 | 12.3 | 4 | 156.7 | 109 |
| 5 | +1 | Oregon | 0.865 | 0.548 | 44 | 31.8 | 2 | 15.1 | 11 | 180.5 | 8 |
| 6 | +1 | Texas A&M | 0.857 | 0.671 | 6 | 27.9 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 185.5 | 4 |
| 7 | -3 | Florida St. | 0.846 | 0.520 | 57 | 30.6 | 4 | 15.5 | 16 | 157.1 | 105 |
| 8 | -- | Stanford | 0.840 | 0.557 | 41 | 26.9 | 16 | 13.9 | 7 | 161.1 | 88 |
| 9 | -- | Oklahoma | 0.832 | 0.636 | 12 | 26.4 | 21 | 13.9 | 8 | 176.1 | 13 |
| 10 | +1 | Boise St. | 0.817 | 0.379 | 100 | 27.5 | 13 | 15.1 | 12 | 157.0 | 107 |
| 11 | +2 | South Carolina | 0.808 | 0.602 | 23 | 28.0 | 11 | 15.8 | 17 | 157.0 | 106 |
| 12 | -2 | Wisconsin | 0.806 | 0.553 | 42 | 30.1 | 5 | 17.1 | 27 | 156.0 | 114 |
| 13 | -1 | Oklahoma St. | 0.803 | 0.633 | 14 | 27.1 | 15 | 15.4 | 14 | 183.1 | 7 |
| 14 | +2 | Georgia | 0.800 | 0.534 | 50 | 28.4 | 10 | 16.3 | 21 | 161.6 | 87 |
| 15 | -- | Kansas St. | 0.782 | 0.601 | 24 | 31.2 | 3 | 18.7 | 42 | 154.7 | 118 |
| 16 | -2 | Michigan | 0.781 | 0.571 | 34 | 30.0 | 6 | 18.0 | 35 | 152.0 | 123 |
| 17 | -- | Nebraska | 0.770 | 0.616 | 18 | 26.1 | 22 | 16.1 | 20 | 168.0 | 47 |
| 18 | -- | USC | 0.763 | 0.563 | 36 | 29.0 | 7 | 18.2 | 38 | 162.2 | 81 |
| 19 | -- | Ohio St. | 0.762 | 0.530 | 52 | 28.8 | 8 | 18.1 | 37 | 162.1 | 83 |
| 20 | +3 | Michigan St. | 0.734 | 0.603 | 22 | 20.1 | 68 | 13.4 | 5 | 163.1 | 74 |
| 21 | -1 | Texas | 0.733 | 0.576 | 33 | 26.7 | 19 | 17.8 | 33 | 159.3 | 96 |
| 22 | -- | BYU | 0.726 | 0.442 | 73 | 21.1 | 58 | 14.3 | 10 | 162.7 | 79 |
| 23 | +2 | TCU | 0.726 | 0.559 | 38 | 23.3 | 36 | 15.8 | 18 | 163.7 | 68 |
| 24 | NA | Cincinnati | 0.716 | 0.507 | 61 | 22.3 | 48 | 15.5 | 15 | 166.3 | 56 |
| 25 | NA | Penn State | 0.713 | 0.535 | 49 | 20.1 | 66 | 14.0 | 9 | 169.9 | 34 |
Rankings through games of 2012-11-25
New entries: Cincinnati, Penn State.
Dropped out: Clemson, Oregon St..
Well it appears that will finally happen. As far back as week 8 we were predicting an Alabama/Notre Dame championship game. Of course we expected Alabama to be the undefeated one, with Notre Dame as more likely to lose. Granted, Alabama still has to beat Georgia in the SEC title game. TFG doesn't think too much of Georgia, but a lot of that skepticism comes from early-season games against Florida-Atlantic (gave up 20 points), Tennessee (44 points), and Kentucky (24 points). More recently, though, Georgia has clamped down on defense and only allowed a combined 29 points against Florida, Mississippi, Auburn, and Georgia Tech.
On a side note, while it would be interesting to see an Ohio State/Notre Dame championship game -- there are only two undefeated teams left, after all -- it's probably better for the Buckeyes that they're going to have to sit this one out. Currently TFG places them in the neighborhood of the 2006 Boise State team that went undefeated and beat Alabama in the Fiesta Bowl. In other words: they're good, but nowhere near as good as Notre Dame. A Notre Dame/Ohio State championship game would be about on the same level as a Notre Dame/USC game. Urban Meyer definitely got the offense clicking this year to the tune of 28.8 PPH, but their defense still needs work (18.1 PPH).
Previously we've shown that most BCS champions end up in the top 3 on either offense or defense, and in the top ten on the other side of the ball. Right now the only teams that meets those criteria is Alabama, although Oregon is close (2nd-best offense, 11th-best defense). The Irish have an amazing defense -- second-best in FBS, at 11.3 PPH -- but their offense barely eeks into the top 25 at 25.7 PPH; that's on par with (17) Nebraska.
The most the Irish can hope for right now is that Georgia upsets Alabama in the SEC title game. The Irish have an 18% chance against the Crimson Tide, but a 66% chance against Georgia. So for all those Notre Dame fans and Alabama haters: Go Dawgs.
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