Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Week 13: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA


Odds as of games through 2012-11-18


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.906 14 0.529 50 21.4 19 13.0 30 159.9 118
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  92 Miami-OH 10 at  23 Ohio St. 56 193 85.8%
2012/09/08  62 UCF 16 at  20 Ohio St. 31 161 71.7%
2012/09/15  50 California 28 at  20 Ohio St. 35 176 71.4%
2012/09/22 115 UAB 15 at  19 Ohio St. 29 165 93.1%
2012/09/29  21 Ohio St. 17 at  19 Michigan St. 16 156 42.7%
2012/10/06  20 Nebraska 38 at  11 Ohio St. 63 166 51.1%
2012/10/13   9 Ohio St. 52 at  82 Indiana 49 195 89.8%
2012/10/20  63 Purdue 22 at  17 Ohio St. 29 164 78.1%
2012/10/27  12 Ohio St. 35 at  26 Penn State 23 174 48.8%
2012/11/03  90 Illinois 22 at  13 Ohio St. 52 175 84.9%
2012/11/17  14 Ohio St. 21 at  19 Wisconsin 14 169 43.3%
2012/11/24  21 Michigan 21 at  14 Ohio St. 28 163 61.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Michigan Wolverines, 61.7%


Long Shots

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.983 4 0.565 1 18.6 36 7.2 2 164.5 96
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  75 Navy 10 vs  20 Notre Dame 50 150 77.7%
2012/09/08  73 Purdue 17 at  17 Notre Dame 20 172 79.4%
2012/09/15   6 Notre Dame 20 at  15 Michigan St. 3 165 49.1%
2012/09/22  22 Michigan 6 at  13 Notre Dame 13 133 50.1%
2012/10/06   9 Notre Dame 41 vs  56 Miami-FL 3 154 80.4%
2012/10/13  13 Stanford 13 at   7 Notre Dame 20 165 50.0%
2012/10/20  28 BYU 14 at   6 Notre Dame 17 145 60.6%
2012/10/27   5 Notre Dame 30 at   8 Oklahoma 13 166 47.3%
2012/11/03  41 Pittsburgh 26 at   7 Notre Dame 29 199 86.7%
2012/11/10   3 Notre Dame 21 at  98 Boston College 6 150 93.5%
2012/11/17  91 Wake Forest 0 at   4 Notre Dame 38 152 91.4%
2012/11/24   4 Notre Dame 27 at  17 USC 24 165 52.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.9
Most difficult game left: November 24, at USC Trojans, 52.3%


One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2012-11-18

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 1.000 1 0.548 15 25.6 2 6.1 1 156.3 124
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  21 Michigan 14 vs   1 Alabama 41 148 90.8%
2012/09/08  89 Western Kentucky 0 at   1 Alabama 35 130 99.1%
2012/09/15   1 Alabama 52 at  38 Arkansas 0 149 87.9%
2012/09/22 119 FL-Atlantic 7 at   1 Alabama 40 142 99.9%
2012/09/29  72 Mississippi 14 at   1 Alabama 33 154 99.5%
2012/10/13   1 Alabama 42 at  32 Missouri 10 151 95.8%
2012/10/20   1 Alabama 44 at  55 Tennessee 13 149 96.8%
2012/10/27  27 Mississippi St. 7 at   1 Alabama 38 148 95.1%
2012/11/03   1 Alabama 21 at   3 LSU 17 161 76.1%
2012/11/10   7 Texas A&M 29 at   1 Alabama 24 166 87.2%
2012/11/24  70 Auburn 7 at   1 Alabama 42 157 97.3%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.0
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Auburn Tigers, 97.3%
Notes:


Oregon Ducks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.992 2 0.530 49 27.8 1 11.5 19 177.0 3
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  69 Arkansas St. 34 at   3 Oregon 57 208 88.2%
2012/09/08  86 Fresno St. 25 at   3 Oregon 42 199 93.3%
2012/09/22  48 Arizona 0 at   3 Oregon 49 200 81.0%
2012/09/29  89 Washington St. 26 vs   2 Oregon 51 194 88.7%
2012/10/06  37 Washington 21 at   2 Oregon 52 182 78.3%
2012/10/18   2 Oregon 43 at  21 Arizona St. 21 194 54.4%
2012/10/27 112 Colorado 14 at   2 Oregon 70 165 96.4%
2012/11/03   2 Oregon 62 at  19 USC 51 191 50.4%
2012/11/10   2 Oregon 59 at  62 California 17 177 85.9%
2012/11/17  13 Stanford 17 at   2 Oregon 14 187 56.6%
2012/11/24   2 Oregon 34 at  23 Oregon St. 27 173 80.7%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.2
Most difficult game left: November 24, at Oregon State Beavers, 80.7%
Notes:


Georgia Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.958 9 0.544 26 23.1 9 11.3 18 160.0 117
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01 113 Buffalo 23 at  14 Georgia 45 168 97.1%
2012/09/08  15 Georgia 41 at  29 Missouri 20 187 31.6%
2012/09/15 121 FL-Atlantic 20 at  13 Georgia 56 164 97.9%
2012/09/22  44 Vanderbilt 3 at   5 Georgia 48 167 52.0%
2012/09/29  47 Tennessee 44 at   4 Georgia 51 182 59.8%
2012/10/06  13 Georgia 7 at   3 South Carolina 35 153 31.8%
2012/10/20  14 Georgia 29 at  83 Kentucky 24 162 86.4%
2012/10/27  15 Georgia 17 vs   4 Florida 9 157 30.7%
2012/11/03  51 Mississippi 10 at  12 Georgia 37 155 69.5%
2012/11/10  10 Georgia 38 at  68 Auburn 0 139 84.6%
2012/11/24  41 Georgia Tech 21 at   9 Georgia 38 161 74.1%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.3
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 74.1%
Notes:


Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.974 6 0.531 47 25.2 3 14.1 44 165.7 78
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/08  53 Miami-FL 13 at  22 Kansas St. 52 150 61.8%
2012/09/15  96 North Texas 21 at  14 Kansas St. 35 135 92.1%
2012/09/22  18 Kansas St. 24 at   9 Oklahoma 19 156 42.0%
2012/10/06  97 Kansas 16 at  17 Kansas St. 56 151 89.4%
2012/10/13  17 Kansas St. 27 at  81 Iowa St. 21 164 74.7%
2012/10/20   9 Kansas St. 55 at  44 West Virginia 14 147 62.4%
2012/10/27  35 Texas Tech 24 at   6 Kansas St. 55 166 60.3%
2012/11/03  11 Oklahoma St. 30 at   4 Kansas St. 44 169 60.4%
2012/11/10   4 Kansas St. 23 at  36 TCU 10 146 69.2%
2012/11/17   6 Kansas St. 24 at  37 Baylor 52 190 77.1%
2012/12/01  30 Texas 27 at   6 Kansas St. 41 166 68.7%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.5
Most difficult game left: December 1, vs Texas Longhorns, 68.7%
Notes:


Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.899 15 0.527 54 23.5 5 14.0 43 168.0 49
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  33 Clemson 26 vs  41 Auburn 19 177 46.2%
2012/09/08  99 Ball St. 27 at  33 Clemson 52 183 83.0%
2012/09/22  33 Clemson 37 at   6 Florida St. 49 185 25.1%
2012/09/29  33 Clemson 45 at  79 Boston College 31 185 72.0%
2012/10/06  72 Georgia Tech 31 at  28 Clemson 47 174 55.3%
2012/10/20  39 Virginia Tech 17 at  23 Clemson 38 170 54.4%
2012/10/25  20 Clemson 42 at  82 Wake Forest 13 191 78.2%
2012/11/03  18 Clemson 56 at  68 Duke 20 188 69.1%
2012/11/10  86 Maryland 10 at  19 Clemson 45 154 77.1%
2012/11/17  60 North Carolina St. 48 at  15 Clemson 62 223 77.6%
2012/11/24   7 South Carolina 27 at  15 Clemson 31 162 65.3%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.5
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs South Carolina Gamecocks, 65.3%
Notes:


Florida Gators
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.975 5 0.558 5 17.8 42 8.8 3 161.2 114
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01 106 Bowling Green 14 at  16 Florida 27 173 96.2%
2012/09/08  21 Florida 20 at  19 Texas A&M 17 159 31.5%
2012/09/15  18 Florida 37 at  35 Tennessee 20 168 60.8%
2012/09/22  75 Kentucky 0 at  14 Florida 38 157 80.5%
2012/10/06   4 LSU 6 at   5 Florida 14 147 20.7%
2012/10/13   6 Florida 31 at  44 Vanderbilt 17 162 84.3%
2012/10/20   7 South Carolina 11 at   3 Florida 44 162 44.3%
2012/10/27  15 Georgia 17 vs   4 Florida 9 157 69.3%
2012/11/03  29 Missouri 7 at   5 Florida 14 169 74.6%
2012/11/10  77 LA-Lafayette 20 at   5 Florida 27 146 95.0%
2012/11/24   5 Florida 24 at  16 Florida St. 21 163 51.0%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-2.0
Most difficult game left: November 24, at Florida State Seminoles, 51.0%
Notes:


Florida State Seminoles
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.891 16 0.547 17 22.3 16 9.3 5 165.8 77
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/15  69 Wake Forest 0 at   9 Florida St. 52 162 85.9%
2012/09/22  33 Clemson 37 at   6 Florida St. 49 185 74.9%
2012/09/29   8 Florida St. 30 at  69 South Florida 17 161 89.9%
2012/10/06  12 Florida St. 16 at  52 North Carolina St. 17 175 86.8%
2012/10/13  77 Boston College 7 at  16 Florida St. 51 165 91.4%
2012/10/20  12 Florida St. 33 at  56 Miami-FL 20 168 83.0%
2012/10/27  65 Duke 7 at  13 Florida St. 48 171 89.8%
2012/11/08  15 Florida St. 28 at  44 Virginia Tech 22 166 77.7%
2012/11/17  16 Florida St. 41 at  87 Maryland 14 145 93.1%
2012/11/24   5 Florida 24 at  16 Florida St. 21 163 49.0%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-2.0
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Florida Gators, 49.0%
Notes:


Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.878 18 0.498 68 15.1 75 9.4 6 164.5 94
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  43 Rutgers 24 at 121 Tulane 12 149 90.5%
2012/09/13  32 Rutgers 23 at  52 South Florida 13 174 48.7%
2012/09/22  26 Rutgers 35 at  43 Arkansas 26 166 39.6%
2012/10/06  73 Connecticut 3 at  25 Rutgers 19 149 66.7%
2012/10/13  94 Syracuse 15 at  19 Rutgers 23 160 75.4%
2012/10/20  19 Rutgers 35 at  65 Temple 10 142 67.8%
2012/10/27  94 Kent St. 35 at  16 Rutgers 23 164 92.8%
2012/11/10 101 Army 7 at  14 Rutgers 28 159 87.8%
2012/11/17  18 Rutgers 10 at  29 Cincinnati 3 146 50.7%
2012/11/24  18 Rutgers 25 at  52 Pittsburgh 24 164 64.0%
2012/11/29  34 Louisville 21 at  18 Rutgers 31 165 59.1%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-2.6
Most difficult game left: November 29, vs Louisville Cardinals, 59.1%
Notes:


Louisville Cardinals
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.757 34 0.487 73 19.2 30 15.9 59 165.7 79
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/02  64 Kentucky 14 at  44 Louisville 32 162 59.3%
2012/09/15  58 North Carolina 34 at  37 Louisville 39 154 51.7%
2012/09/22  34 Louisville 28 at  98 FIU 21 149 78.2%
2012/09/29  35 Louisville 21 at  77 Southern Miss. 17 142 65.4%
2012/10/13  36 Louisville 45 at  73 Pittsburgh 35 155 40.5%
2012/10/20  69 South Florida 25 at  36 Louisville 27 164 63.4%
2012/10/26  29 Cincinnati 31 at  36 Louisville 34 178 68.6%
2012/11/03  79 Temple 17 at  31 Louisville 45 152 68.4%
2012/11/10  32 Louisville 26 at  61 Syracuse 45 169 61.6%
2012/11/24  86 Connecticut 17 at  34 Louisville 31 166 81.3%
2012/11/29  34 Louisville 21 at  18 Rutgers 31 165 40.9%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-3.0
Most difficult game left: November 29, at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 40.9%
Notes:


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