Saturday, October 27, 2012

Week 9: Saturday Matchups

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Game of the Week
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Oklahoma Sooners

Justin

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
3 Oklahoma 0.896 0.614 20 26.9 18 11.4 3 173.6 18
6 Notre Dame 0.866 0.629 18 25.8 26 12.2 4 158.1 101

Oklahoma 33, Notre Dame 29 (68.0%); 165 plays

Eddie

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
4 Oklahoma 0.983 0.546 21 23.2 7 9.2 7 171.6 16
6 Notre Dame 0.975 0.564 2 20.3 26 8.6 4 164.5 93

Both our systems have a tendency to overrate Oklahoma.  In RBA's case, it's not because they're super-efficient on offense.  It's because they're consistently efficient at 27.1 +/- 7.7 PPH.  If you can put up a reasonable number of points against everyone, you're most likely going to win.  In contrast, the Irish struggle offensively against quality opposition, 32.4 +/- 24.2 PPH.  That rarely matters thanks to their surprisingly good 9.7 +/- 2.1 PPH defense.  Realistically, this game is going to come down to the matchup between Oklahoma's offense and Notre Dame's defense.  The Irish can't afford to get into a shootout.  If everything goes according to plan, Oklahoma silences the echoes, 27-20, with 52.7% confidence.



Coin Toss Game of the Week
Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones
GUGS Score: 49.9

Eddie

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
74 Iowa St. 0.388 0.543 26 10.6 114 11.1 19 169.8 27
40 Baylor 0.681 0.563 3 25.2 3 20.6 104 173.4 10

Baylor's defense is a dreadful 7.6 +/- 25.9 PPH.  The thing is that they can score at will with a 31.5 +/- 12.6 PPH offense.  The Cyclones are going to have a hard time keeping up with the Bears.  Sure, they beat TCU, but they scored only 9 points against Iowa, 13 against Texas Tech, and 10 against Oklahoma State, resulting in a 6.3 +/- 8.5 PPH offense.  Their defense surrenders quite a few points, as well, suggesting that we're in for a shootout.  RBA says Baylor in a very close one, 32-31, with 62.1% confidence.


Justin

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
53 Iowa St. 0.545 0.699 5 16.1 106 15.0 13 174.0 16
38 Baylor 0.606 0.641 16 27.3 16 23.0 78 184.9 4

Iowa St. 37, Baylor 35 (55.6%); 179 plays




SystemExpected
W - L
Expected
% Correct
RBA 39.40 - 14.60 72.96%
TFG 38.74 - 15.26 71.74%
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