Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Week 8: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2012-10-14




Legitimate Title Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.980 1 0.592 26 39.6 1 8.3 1 148.9 123
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01   9 Michigan 14 vs   1 Alabama 41 148 91.3%
2012/09/08  73 Western Kentucky 0 at   1 Alabama 35 130 99.2%
2012/09/15   1 Alabama 52 at  27 Arkansas 0 149 89.4%
2012/09/22 118 FL-Atlantic 7 at   1 Alabama 40 142 99.9%
2012/09/29  52 Mississippi 14 at   1 Alabama 33 154 99.1%
2012/10/13   1 Alabama 42 at  36 Missouri 10 151 94.8%
2012/10/20   1 Alabama 46 at  48 Tennessee 27 157 95.9%
2012/10/27  34 Mississippi St. 21 at   1 Alabama 45 156 97.6%
2012/11/03   1 Alabama 38 at   2 LSU 28 152 80.9%
2012/11/10  12 Texas A&M 27 at   1 Alabama 45 167 93.0%
2012/11/24  61 Auburn 23 at   1 Alabama 46 154 97.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.5
Most difficult game left: November 3, at LSU Tigers, 80.9%


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.871 4 0.621 16 25.2 26 11.7 3 159.2 95
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  78 Navy 10 vs   4 Notre Dame 50 150 74.7%
2012/09/08  68 Purdue 17 at   4 Notre Dame 20 172 90.6%
2012/09/15   4 Notre Dame 20 at  20 Michigan St. 3 165 30.7%
2012/09/22   9 Michigan 6 at   4 Notre Dame 13 133 74.3%
2012/10/06   4 Notre Dame 41 vs  67 Miami-FL 3 154 78.0%
2012/10/13  11 Stanford 13 at   4 Notre Dame 20 165 65.5%
2012/10/20  32 BYU 23 at   4 Notre Dame 33 160 84.8%
2012/10/27   4 Notre Dame 29 at   3 Oklahoma 33 167 35.8%
2012/11/03  47 Pittsburgh 26 at   4 Notre Dame 36 160 85.9%
2012/11/10   4 Notre Dame 37 at  98 Boston College 22 162 93.3%
2012/11/17  85 Wake Forest 24 at   4 Notre Dame 39 163 92.8%
2012/11/24   4 Notre Dame 34 at  16 USC 31 160 67.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-6.5
Most difficult game left: October 27, at Oklahoma Sooners, 35.8%


Long Shots

Oregon Ducks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.857 7 0.523 50 31.1 5 15.2 14 181.2 7
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  76 Arkansas St. 34 at   7 Oregon 57 208 91.2%
2012/09/08  58 Fresno St. 25 at   7 Oregon 42 199 95.1%
2012/09/22  54 Arizona 0 at   7 Oregon 49 200 84.0%
2012/09/29 101 Washington St. 26 vs   7 Oregon 51 194 95.1%
2012/10/06  69 Washington 21 at   7 Oregon 52 182 90.1%
2012/10/18   7 Oregon 40 at  26 Arizona St. 36 175 62.0%
2012/10/27 111 Colorado 25 at   7 Oregon 55 173 98.0%
2012/11/03   7 Oregon 40 at  16 USC 37 171 61.1%
2012/11/10   7 Oregon 41 at  40 California 31 174 76.7%
2012/11/17  11 Stanford 38 at   7 Oregon 40 171 57.6%
2012/11/24   7 Oregon 42 at  35 Oregon St. 33 172 76.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-8.0
Most difficult game left: November 17, vs Stanford Cardinal, 57.6%


Florida Gators
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.835 8 0.628 14 25.4 25 13.3 5 156.8 106
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01 100 Bowling Green 14 at   8 Florida 27 173 93.1%
2012/09/08   8 Florida 20 at  12 Texas A&M 17 159 34.8%
2012/09/15   8 Florida 37 at  48 Tennessee 20 168 55.0%
2012/09/22  96 Kentucky 0 at   8 Florida 38 157 89.6%
2012/10/06   2 LSU 6 at   8 Florida 14 147 36.4%
2012/10/13   8 Florida 31 at  71 Vanderbilt 17 162 83.8%
2012/10/20   6 South Carolina 31 at   8 Florida 32 156 55.9%
2012/10/27  23 Georgia 33 vs   8 Florida 36 161 66.5%
2012/11/03  36 Missouri 26 at   8 Florida 34 163 77.3%
2012/11/10  70 LA-Lafayette 27 at   8 Florida 40 163 87.8%
2012/11/24   8 Florida 30 at   5 Florida St. 34 156 43.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-9.2
Most difficult game left: November 24, at Florida State Seminoles, 43.1%


Ohio Bobcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.385 79 0.225 123 20.9 59 25.2 98 169.0 34
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  79 Ohio 24 at  29 Penn State 14 179 20.7%
2012/09/08 119 New Mexico St. 24 at  79 Ohio 51 170 91.8%
2012/09/15  79 Ohio 27 at  94 Marshall 24 200 59.0%
2012/09/29  79 Ohio 37 at 123 Massachusetts 34 192 97.2%
2012/10/06 114 Buffalo 31 at  79 Ohio 38 185 83.2%
2012/10/13 120 Akron 28 at  79 Ohio 34 193 91.5%
2012/10/27  79 Ohio 39 at 109 Miami-OH 35 165 63.9%
2012/11/01 113 Eastern Michigan 33 at  79 Ohio 45 161 80.0%
2012/11/07 100 Bowling Green 32 at  79 Ohio 35 164 65.4%
2012/11/14  79 Ohio 39 at  86 Ball St. 37 172 51.4%
2012/11/23  79 Ohio 35 at  87 Kent St. 34 165 57.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-10.2
Most difficult game left: November 14, at Ball State Cardinals, 51.4%


Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.753 19 0.504 57 28.6 11 18.3 35 160.9 85
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01 109 Miami-OH 10 at  19 Ohio St. 56 193 89.0%
2012/09/08  46 UCF 16 at  19 Ohio St. 31 161 83.7%
2012/09/15  40 California 28 at  19 Ohio St. 35 176 84.0%
2012/09/22 108 UAB 15 at  19 Ohio St. 29 165 97.4%
2012/09/29  19 Ohio St. 17 at  20 Michigan St. 16 156 35.5%
2012/10/06  21 Nebraska 38 at  19 Ohio St. 63 166 58.2%
2012/10/13  19 Ohio St. 52 at  77 Indiana 49 195 83.5%
2012/10/20  68 Purdue 30 at  19 Ohio St. 42 166 84.5%
2012/10/27  19 Ohio St. 31 at  29 Penn State 32 163 47.3%
2012/11/03  93 Illinois 27 at  19 Ohio St. 41 158 89.1%
2012/11/17  19 Ohio St. 37 at  14 Wisconsin 39 157 44.4%
2012/11/24   9 Michigan 39 at  19 Ohio St. 35 157 38.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-16.3
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Michigan Wolverines, 38.9%


Cincinnati Bearcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.728 22 0.478 69 24.7 29 16.7 21 167.6 39
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/06  47 Pittsburgh 10 at  22 Cincinnati 34 167 67.2%
2012/09/29  25 Virginia Tech 24 vs  22 Cincinnati 27 170 46.3%
2012/10/06 109 Miami-OH 14 at  22 Cincinnati 52 172 93.3%
2012/10/20  22 Cincinnati 39 at  63 Toledo 35 168 63.7%
2012/10/26  22 Cincinnati 36 at  39 Louisville 35 158 51.4%
2012/11/03  75 Syracuse 28 at  22 Cincinnati 38 166 81.7%
2012/11/10  22 Cincinnati 35 at  42 Temple 32 161 60.9%
2012/11/17  33 Rutgers 30 at  22 Cincinnati 33 162 58.3%
2012/11/23  59 South Florida 30 at  22 Cincinnati 36 168 71.1%
2012/12/01  22 Cincinnati 34 at  62 Connecticut 27 163 73.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-20.2
Most difficult game left: October 26, at Louisville Cardinals, 51.4%


Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.657 33 0.460 74 21.0 56 16.2 16 157.9 100
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  33 Rutgers 24 at 122 Tulane 12 149 84.8%
2012/09/13  33 Rutgers 23 at  59 South Florida 13 174 34.3%
2012/09/22  33 Rutgers 35 at  27 Arkansas 26 166 30.8%
2012/10/06  62 Connecticut 3 at  33 Rutgers 19 149 62.5%
2012/10/13  75 Syracuse 15 at  33 Rutgers 23 160 78.4%
2012/10/20  33 Rutgers 30 at  42 Temple 32 156 45.1%
2012/10/27  87 Kent St. 24 at  33 Rutgers 36 159 86.6%
2012/11/10 103 Army 28 at  33 Rutgers 42 156 87.4%
2012/11/17  33 Rutgers 30 at  22 Cincinnati 33 162 41.7%
2012/11/24  33 Rutgers 32 at  47 Pittsburgh 30 159 59.2%
2012/11/29  39 Louisville 32 at  33 Rutgers 34 154 54.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-21.7
Most difficult game left: November 17, at Cincinnati Bearcats, 41.7%


Louisville Cardinals
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.612 39 0.490 64 27.1 19 22.6 74 150.2 122
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/02  96 Kentucky 14 at  39 Louisville 32 162 81.5%
2012/09/15  28 North Carolina 34 at  39 Louisville 39 154 72.4%
2012/09/22  39 Louisville 28 at  92 FIU 21 149 70.3%
2012/09/29  39 Louisville 21 at  72 Southern Miss. 17 142 57.9%
2012/10/13  39 Louisville 45 at  47 Pittsburgh 35 155 42.1%
2012/10/20  59 South Florida 32 at  39 Louisville 38 160 69.9%
2012/10/26  22 Cincinnati 36 at  39 Louisville 35 158 48.6%
2012/11/03  42 Temple 34 at  39 Louisville 36 152 56.4%
2012/11/10  39 Louisville 37 at  75 Syracuse 32 158 65.1%
2012/11/24  62 Connecticut 30 at  39 Louisville 34 155 61.7%
2012/11/29  39 Louisville 32 at  33 Rutgers 34 154 45.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-28.7
Most difficult game left: November 29, at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 45.2%


Absolute Phonies

Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.757 18 0.567 34 32.2 2 20.4 53 154.3 116
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/08  67 Miami-FL 13 at  18 Kansas St. 52 150 65.6%
2012/09/15  89 North Texas 21 at  18 Kansas St. 35 135 90.1%
2012/09/22  18 Kansas St. 24 at   3 Oklahoma 19 156 19.0%
2012/10/06 105 Kansas 16 at  18 Kansas St. 56 151 92.9%
2012/10/13  18 Kansas St. 27 at  45 Iowa St. 21 164 60.4%
2012/10/20  18 Kansas St. 41 at  30 West Virginia 40 163 50.1%
2012/10/27  24 Texas Tech 35 at  18 Kansas St. 42 163 66.8%
2012/11/03  15 Oklahoma St. 39 at  18 Kansas St. 42 168 53.2%
2012/11/10  18 Kansas St. 36 at  13 TCU 38 155 40.3%
2012/11/17  18 Kansas St. 46 at  38 Baylor 41 169 66.1%
2012/12/01  17 Texas 39 at  18 Kansas St. 38 158 49.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-42.7
Most difficult game left: November 10, at TCU Horned Frogs, 40.3%


What are YOU doing here??

Oregon State Beavers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.653 35 0.600 23 23.4 37 18.2 34 163.5 69
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/08  14 Wisconsin 7 at  35 Oregon St. 10 162 16.1%
2012/09/22  35 Oregon St. 27 at  57 UCLA 20 180 33.7%
2012/09/29  35 Oregon St. 38 at  54 Arizona 35 197 42.3%
2012/10/06 101 Washington St. 6 at  35 Oregon St. 19 156 80.5%
2012/10/13  35 Oregon St. 42 at  32 BYU 24 174 24.7%
2012/10/20  55 Utah 30 at  35 Oregon St. 37 161 72.0%
2012/10/27  35 Oregon St. 35 at  69 Washington 33 159 57.3%
2012/11/03  26 Arizona St. 36 at  35 Oregon St. 34 167 49.4%
2012/11/10  35 Oregon St. 31 at  11 Stanford 39 163 26.4%
2012/11/17  40 California 32 at  35 Oregon St. 33 165 55.0%
2012/11/24   7 Oregon 42 at  35 Oregon St. 33 172 23.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-142.0
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Oregon Ducks, 23.8%


Mississippi State Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.656 34 0.486 66 21.1 54 16.3 18 163.9 67
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/08  61 Auburn 10 at  34 Mississippi St. 28 152 66.1%
2012/09/15  34 Mississippi St. 30 at  80 Troy 24 174 81.6%
2012/09/22 117 South Alabama 10 at  34 Mississippi St. 30 166 95.6%
2012/10/06  34 Mississippi St. 27 at  96 Kentucky 14 163 69.6%
2012/10/13  48 Tennessee 31 at  34 Mississippi St. 41 166 68.3%
2012/10/20  99 Middle Tenn. 27 at  34 Mississippi St. 40 168 88.4%
2012/10/27  34 Mississippi St. 21 at   1 Alabama 45 156 2.4%
2012/11/03  12 Texas A&M 35 at  34 Mississippi St. 30 174 34.0%
2012/11/10  34 Mississippi St. 25 at   2 LSU 36 160 14.0%
2012/11/17  27 Arkansas 35 at  34 Mississippi St. 32 164 45.5%
2012/11/24  34 Mississippi St. 34 at  52 Mississippi 31 163 60.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3597.2
Most difficult game left: October 27, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 2.4%


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