Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2011-11-27


LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.941 2 0.649 5 33.3 3 11.0 2 154.9 118

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03   5 Oregon 27 vs   9 LSU 40 45.4% 184
2011/09/15   7 LSU 19 at  35 Mississippi St. 6 69.4% 150
2011/09/24   5 LSU 47 at  21 West Virginia 21 64.4% 188
2011/10/01  62 Kentucky 7 at   5 LSU 35 93.0% 162
2011/10/08   7 Florida 11 at   3 LSU 41 66.6% 141
2011/10/15   3 LSU 38 at  32 Tennessee 7 81.4% 143
2011/10/22  24 Auburn 10 at   2 LSU 45 88.6% 144
2011/11/05   2 LSU 9 at   1 Alabama 6 27.4% 143
2011/11/12  97 Western Kentucky 9 at   2 LSU 42 98.0% 151
2011/11/19   2 LSU 52 at  87 Mississippi 3 96.6% 139
2011/11/25   9 Arkansas 17 at   2 LSU 41 78.2% 149
2011/12/03   2 LSU 39 vs  17 Georgia 29 82.8% 158


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.2
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Georgia Bulldogs, 82.8%
Notes: At this point LSU is a lock for the title game. Even a loss to Georgia wouldn't derail them, but that seems unlikely. A loss to the Bulldogs would potentially affect who the Tigers play in the title game -- there are limits to the number of teams from a single conference that can be in the BCS -- but we're shaping up for an LSU/Alabama rematch.


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.721 23 0.335 111 26.7 12 18.2 53 180.0 5

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  78 UCLA 34 at  63 Houston 38 74.5% 170
2011/09/10  65 Houston 48 at 109 North Texas 23 73.3% 186
2011/09/17  63 Houston 35 at  77 LA Tech 34 51.2% 205
2011/09/29  63 Houston 49 at  96 UTEP 42 62.1% 178
2011/10/08  80 East Carolina 3 at  66 Houston 56 67.1% 182
2011/10/22  94 Marshall 28 at  52 Houston 63 84.8% 169
2011/10/27  98 Rice 34 at  46 Houston 73 87.2% 179
2011/11/05  40 Houston 56 at 112 UAB 13 89.2% 176
2011/11/10  35 Houston 73 at 114 Tulane 17 91.3% 187
2011/11/19  65 SMU 7 at  32 Houston 37 68.8% 167
2011/11/25  27 Houston 48 at  30 Tulsa 16 53.1% 190
2011/12/03  43 Southern Miss. 35 vs  23 Houston 39 63.2% 177


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles, 63.2%
Notes: To be fair to the Cougars, they're not quite 2007 Hawaii but aren't exactly 2006 Boise State yet. They would get totally thrashed if they played LSU or Alabama -- who wouldn't? -- but are getting to the point where they'd have a small shot against someone like Virginia Tech or Stanford.


One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2011-11-27

Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.874 6 0.556 50 30.9 5 14.3 13 162.7 89

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 115 SJSU 3 at   6 Stanford 57 98.8% 162
2011/09/10   6 Stanford 44 at  90 Duke 14 91.4% 155
2011/09/17   5 Stanford 37 at  40 Arizona 10 76.6% 155
2011/10/01  76 UCLA 19 at   4 Stanford 45 95.3% 152
2011/10/08  76 Colorado 7 at   5 Stanford 48 95.2% 155
2011/10/15   4 Stanford 44 at  82 Washington St. 14 93.1% 157
2011/10/22  44 Washington 21 at   4 Stanford 65 91.4% 159
2011/10/29   4 Stanford 56 at  24 USC 48 69.6% 191
2011/11/05   4 Stanford 38 at  61 Oregon St. 13 88.6% 149
2011/11/12   7 Oregon 53 at   4 Stanford 30 59.7% 166
2011/11/19  51 California 28 at   7 Stanford 31 84.8% 152
2011/11/26  15 Notre Dame 14 at   7 Stanford 28 65.8% 174


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.0
Notes: Stanford's season is over, and all that's left to do is wait and see if they get an at-large bid. The Cardinal are one of three teams currently splitting the "anyone-but-Alabama" votes in the BCS poll.

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.962 1 0.616 14 33.4 2 9.1 1 152.3 120

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 100 Kent St. 7 at   3 Alabama 48 98.6% 172
2011/09/10   2 Alabama 27 at  33 Penn State 11 79.5% 164
2011/09/17 106 North Texas 0 at   1 Alabama 41 99.1% 153
2011/09/24  12 Arkansas 14 at   1 Alabama 38 86.1% 145
2011/10/01   1 Alabama 38 at   3 Florida 10 58.5% 146
2011/10/08  86 Vanderbilt 0 at   1 Alabama 34 98.5% 140
2011/10/15   1 Alabama 52 at  72 Mississippi 7 96.9% 141
2011/10/22  42 Tennessee 6 at   1 Alabama 37 96.9% 138
2011/11/05   2 LSU 9 at   1 Alabama 6 72.6% 143
2011/11/12   1 Alabama 24 at  39 Mississippi St. 7 93.7% 155
2011/11/26   1 Alabama 42 at  39 Auburn 14 94.7% 136


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.0
Notes: Like Stanford, the Crimson Tide are done for now and just waiting to see where they end up. Again, if the BCS wants an LSU/Alabama rematch, it'd be difficult to argue against that.

Virginia Tech Hokies
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.815 9 0.502 66 24.4 21 13.5 7 158.0 109

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/10   9 Virginia Tech 17 at  72 East Carolina 10 83.3% 150
2011/09/17  85 Arkansas St. 7 at  11 Virginia Tech 26 93.5% 163
2011/09/24  11 Virginia Tech 30 at  99 Marshall 10 92.2% 157
2011/10/01  23 Clemson 23 at  11 Virginia Tech 3 73.2% 162
2011/10/08  29 Miami-FL 35 at  11 Virginia Tech 38 69.5% 146
2011/10/15  13 Virginia Tech 38 at  71 Wake Forest 17 78.7% 167
2011/10/22  88 Boston College 14 at  12 Virginia Tech 30 93.2% 158
2011/10/29  13 Virginia Tech 14 at  81 Duke 10 81.9% 162
2011/11/10  12 Virginia Tech 37 at  37 Georgia Tech 26 64.2% 147
2011/11/17  43 North Carolina 21 at  13 Virginia Tech 24 70.1% 157
2011/11/26  14 Virginia Tech 38 at  66 Virginia 0 80.1% 151
2011/12/03   9 Virginia Tech 34 vs  35 Clemson 28 72.1% 164


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.4
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Clemson Tigers, 72.1%
Notes: They Hokies get a shot at the team that beat them in a freak upset. Then again, freak upsets aren't all that uncommon. Virginia Tech is the second team that's getting "anyone-but-Alabama" title attention, but they are currently much less deserving than Stanford.


Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.800 12 0.536 55 27.7 9 15.9 27 181.2 4

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 110 LA-Lafayette 34 at  16 Oklahoma St. 61 96.7% 196
2011/09/08  34 Arizona 14 at  22 Oklahoma St. 37 69.2% 185
2011/09/18  15 Oklahoma St. 59 at  55 Tulsa 33 66.1% 202
2011/09/24  17 Oklahoma St. 30 at  14 Texas A&M 29 38.3% 199
2011/10/08  89 Kansas 28 at  18 Oklahoma St. 70 91.8% 186
2011/10/15  15 Oklahoma St. 38 at  29 Texas 26 51.6% 184
2011/10/22  15 Oklahoma St. 45 at  22 Missouri 24 42.6% 187
2011/10/29  50 Baylor 24 at  12 Oklahoma St. 59 83.3% 190
2011/11/05  35 Kansas St. 45 at  10 Oklahoma St. 52 75.4% 181
2011/11/12  11 Oklahoma St. 66 at  60 Texas Tech 6 77.1% 179
2011/11/18   9 Oklahoma St. 31 at  77 Iowa St. 37 88.6% 211
2011/12/03   5 Oklahoma 38 at  12 Oklahoma St. 35 36.3% 180


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-2.8
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 36.3%
Notes: This is one of those games that's going to depend on one factor my computer doesn't consider: injuries. Right now the computer says that the Sooners are 2-to-1 favorites, but Vegas lists the Cowboys as a 3-point favorite. Currently Oklahoma State is the third -- and least-deserving -- of the "anyone-but-Alabama" teams. Hopefully a loss to the Sooners will cut back on the chaos some.


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