Monday, November 14, 2011

Week 12: Top 25 -- TFG


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.967 0.612 18 33.5 1 8.7 1 152.8 120
2 -- LSU 0.930 0.660 2 31.7 3 11.3 2 156.5 114
3 -- Boise St. 0.898 0.481 70 30.7 5 12.9 6 163.5 81
4 +1 Oklahoma 0.889 0.594 28 27.3 12 11.9 4 180.3 4
5 +1 Oregon 0.886 0.602 22 27.8 9 12.2 5 183.4 2
6 +1 Wisconsin 0.877 0.502 65 33.5 2 15.3 24 158.1 110
7 -3 Stanford 0.876 0.532 54 31.3 4 14.3 11 162.3 93
8 +1 TCU 0.839 0.449 78 29.2 7 15.1 19 163.5 79
9 +2 Oklahoma St. 0.832 0.552 49 28.8 8 15.2 23 179.7 7
10 -- Florida St. 0.817 0.559 46 25.9 15 14.3 14 158.8 106
11 -3 Ohio St. 0.796 0.547 51 22.7 34 13.2 7 159.8 103
12 +6 Arkansas 0.794 0.590 30 29.4 6 17.1 39 169.6 36
13 -1 Virginia Tech 0.786 0.512 60 23.6 26 14.0 8 158.7 107
14 -- Notre Dame 0.780 0.602 23 24.0 25 14.5 15 166.6 57
15 +8 Georgia 0.778 0.583 33 27.4 11 16.6 35 161.9 95
16 +4 Michigan 0.767 0.531 56 26.2 13 16.3 32 160.1 100
17 -1 Nebraska 0.763 0.571 36 22.8 31 14.3 13 167.2 55
18 -1 South Carolina 0.762 0.617 15 24.2 23 15.2 21 159.7 104
19 -6 Florida 0.762 0.637 8 23.5 27 14.8 16 160.0 101
20 -1 USC 0.757 0.578 35 24.4 18 15.5 25 169.3 38
21 +1 Michigan St. 0.755 0.597 26 22.0 37 14.0 9 164.2 74
22 -7 Texas 0.739 0.554 48 22.7 33 15.0 18 161.1 98
23 -2 Texas A&M 0.736 0.632 10 22.6 35 15.0 17 184.2 1
24 NA Missouri 0.733 0.628 12 21.3 43 14.2 10 172.7 23
25 -- Miami-FL 0.720 0.628 13 24.4 19 16.7 36 158.5 109
Rankings through games of 2011-11-13

New entries: Missouri.

Dropped out: Clemson.

It's week 12, and we all know what that means: time for Clemson to start playing the hokey pokey with the top 25 (see last year's "you put your whole team in, you take your whole team out, you put your whole team in, .... you take your whole team out, you put your whole team in, and you shake it all about").

Neither Alabama nor LSU did much to change TFG's assessment of their teams. About the only thing that can be said of them is that LSU's offense did poorly enough against Western Kentucky that TFG dropped them to third place, offense-wise, below Wisconsin. Behind them, Boise State's kicking woes continued, but the real issue from TFG's perspective is that they gave up 36 points to (8) TCU and dropped notably in defensive efficiency. It'll be cold comfort to the Broncos that none of the Oklahoma/Oregon/Wisconsin triumvirate did well enough to overtake them.

Thanks to some generous gifts from Stanford, Oregon has leapt into fifth place, but due to an early-season dud against LSU we know that the Ducks are unlikely to make it to the title game. Against Stanford the Ducks held their own on defense -- leaving their defensive efficiency ranked fifth -- and managed to pick up 1.4 PPH on offense. Oklahoma had a bye week and were beneficiaries of Stanford's ineptitude in Palo Alto.

Just a shade below them, Oklahoma State picked up 1.3 PPH on offense and 0.6 PPH on defense on their change upwards through the ranks. Last year we saw another perennial second-tier team work their way up the ranks to a national title, and TFG continues to be similarly skeptical about Oklahoma State; like 2010 Auburn, it's Oklahoma State's second-rate defense that is cause for concern.

Separated by less than 0.020 of expected winning percentage (EWP) we have a grouping of Ohio State (dropping), Arkansas (rising), Virginia Tech (unchanged, EWP-wise), Notre Dame (unchanged), and Georgia (rising rapidly). The interesting scenario at play is Oklahoma over Oklahoma State (likely) and Georgia over LSU (unlikely), leaving no undefeated teams of note at the end of the year.

In short, this year we appear to have Alabama, LSU, and everyone else. It's been that way since week 8, and it doesn't look like that's going to change any time soon. The big question that remains is how the BCS is going to sort this out.

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