Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Week 13: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA


Odds as of games through 2011-11-20




Legitimate Title Contenders

LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.992 2 0.548 15 26.3 5 6.6 2 160.2 113

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03   9 Oregon 27 vs   8 LSU 40 56.5% 184
2011/09/15   8 LSU 19 at  25 Mississippi St. 6 64.1% 150
2011/09/24   7 LSU 47 at  26 West Virginia 21 35.3% 188
2011/10/01  57 Kentucky 7 at   4 LSU 35 84.7% 162
2011/10/08  13 Florida 11 at   3 LSU 41 54.8% 141
2011/10/15   2 LSU 38 at  29 Tennessee 7 82.7% 143
2011/10/22  31 Auburn 10 at   3 LSU 45 87.0% 144
2011/11/05   3 LSU 9 at   1 Alabama 6 27.0% 143
2011/11/12  95 Western Kentucky 9 at   2 LSU 42 98.4% 151
2011/11/19   2 LSU 52 at  88 Mississippi 3 96.6% 139
2011/11/25   9 Arkansas 21 at   2 LSU 34 77.3% 162


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.3
Most difficult game left: November 25, vs Arkansas Razorbacks, 77.3%
Notes: This doesn't include the SEC championship game, but they must first beat the Hogs. Even if they lose, LSU may not fall from the top two in the BCS. At the risk of sounding like a homer, I hope we get to test that hypothesis.


Long Shots

Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.646 45 0.471 85 21.0 19 15.3 57 175.1 4

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  66 UCLA 34 at  67 Houston 38 50.7% 170
2011/09/10  63 Houston 48 at 111 North Texas 23 68.4% 186
2011/09/17  67 Houston 35 at  79 LA Tech 34 64.5% 205
2011/09/29  64 Houston 49 at  95 UTEP 42 75.5% 178
2011/10/08  93 East Carolina 3 at  57 Houston 56 56.0% 182
2011/10/22  99 Marshall 28 at  46 Houston 63 70.9% 169
2011/10/27  98 Rice 34 at  48 Houston 73 81.7% 179
2011/11/05  48 Houston 56 at 119 UAB 13 84.0% 176
2011/11/10  50 Houston 73 at 113 Tulane 17 90.1% 187
2011/11/19  72 SMU 7 at  45 Houston 37 61.5% 167
2011/11/25  45 Houston 28 at  46 Tulsa 31 47.1% 172


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-2.1
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 47.1%
Notes: Another week, another unnecessary description of the Cougars. Houston is a slight underdog this weekend and will have an opportunity play Southern Miss in the Conference USA championship game if they win. Contrary to popular belief, the Cougars deserve to be nowhere near the championship game.


One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2011-11-20

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 1.000 1 0.548 16 25.3 7 4.6 1 157.1 120

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  97 Kent St. 7 at   2 Alabama 48 98.2% 172
2011/09/10   3 Alabama 27 at  37 Penn State 11 89.4% 164
2011/09/17 108 North Texas 0 at   2 Alabama 41 98.1% 153
2011/09/24  19 Arkansas 14 at   2 Alabama 38 74.7% 145
2011/10/01   1 Alabama 38 at  10 Florida 10 70.5% 146
2011/10/08  58 Vanderbilt 0 at   1 Alabama 34 94.6% 140
2011/10/15   1 Alabama 52 at  69 Mississippi 7 97.8% 141
2011/10/22  35 Tennessee 6 at   1 Alabama 37 93.0% 138
2011/11/05   3 LSU 9 at   1 Alabama 6 73.0% 143
2011/11/12   1 Alabama 24 at  30 Mississippi St. 7 95.3% 155
2011/11/26   1 Alabama 34 at  37 Auburn 14 96.1% 158


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.0
Most difficult game left: November 26, at Auburn Tigers, 96.1%
Notes: The current BCS #2 finishes off their season with a layup against Auburn. It's unlikely, but an Auburn upset might keep LSU in the top two, even with a loss against Arkansas.


Virginia Tech Hokies
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.827 24 0.526 57 18.0 42 11.5 18 158.2 118

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/10  13 Virginia Tech 17 at  79 East Carolina 10 92.3% 150
2011/09/17  84 Arkansas St. 7 at  10 Virginia Tech 26 94.6% 163
2011/09/24  11 Virginia Tech 30 at 103 Marshall 10 91.5% 157
2011/10/01  11 Clemson 23 at  19 Virginia Tech 3 62.4% 162
2011/10/08  54 Miami-FL 35 at  24 Virginia Tech 38 75.4% 146
2011/10/15  23 Virginia Tech 38 at  80 Wake Forest 17 82.8% 167
2011/10/22  91 Boston College 14 at  26 Virginia Tech 30 86.4% 158
2011/10/29  25 Virginia Tech 14 at  74 Duke 10 79.9% 162
2011/11/10  26 Virginia Tech 37 at  40 Georgia Tech 26 63.7% 147
2011/11/17  48 North Carolina 21 at  24 Virginia Tech 24 59.9% 157
2011/11/26  24 Virginia Tech 27 at  67 Virginia 20 75.9% 161


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.3
Most difficult game left: November 26, at Virginia Cavaliers, 75.9%
Notes: As covered yesterday, Virginia Tech isn't that good of a team, but they'll likely finish the regular season with only one loss. The rematch with Clemson depends on Sammy Watkins' return.


Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.957 7 0.543 24 27.9 2 11.3 13 167.0 53

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 107 SJSU 3 at   1 Stanford 57 98.2% 162
2011/09/10   1 Stanford 44 at  82 Duke 14 93.3% 155
2011/09/17   1 Stanford 37 at  37 Arizona 10 79.2% 155
2011/10/01  75 UCLA 19 at   3 Stanford 45 94.7% 152
2011/10/08  67 Colorado 7 at   4 Stanford 48 94.9% 155
2011/10/15   4 Stanford 44 at  66 Washington St. 14 90.8% 157
2011/10/22  33 Washington 21 at   2 Stanford 65 88.3% 159
2011/10/29   2 Stanford 56 at  22 USC 48 83.9% 191
2011/11/05   2 Stanford 38 at  60 Oregon St. 13 92.8% 149
2011/11/12   3 Oregon 53 at   5 Stanford 30 51.2% 166
2011/11/19  44 California 28 at   7 Stanford 31 90.0% 153
2011/11/26  16 Notre Dame 27 at   7 Stanford 38 73.6% 165


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.4
Most difficult game left: November 26, vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 73.6%
Notes: We like to knock Notre Dame here at Tempo-Free Gridiron, but they actually have a decent shot at knocking off Stanford. The Cardinal need a lot of help to get into the national championship game, but then again, so did Arkansas.


Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.974 5 0.548 17 26.8 3 14.0 46 173.3 7

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 113 LA-Lafayette 34 at  12 Oklahoma St. 61 94.4% 196
2011/09/08  32 Arizona 14 at  10 Oklahoma St. 37 53.2% 185
2011/09/18   9 Oklahoma St. 59 at  59 Tulsa 33 70.7% 202
2011/09/24  10 Oklahoma St. 30 at  14 Texas A&M 29 52.7% 199
2011/10/08  89 Kansas 28 at   9 Oklahoma St. 70 89.9% 186
2011/10/15   9 Oklahoma St. 38 at  35 Texas 26 52.3% 184
2011/10/22   8 Oklahoma St. 45 at  28 Missouri 24 63.8% 187
2011/10/29  45 Baylor 24 at   6 Oklahoma St. 59 68.5% 190
2011/11/05  33 Kansas St. 45 at   7 Oklahoma St. 52 61.1% 181
2011/11/12   7 Oklahoma St. 66 at  62 Texas Tech 6 78.4% 179
2011/11/18   5 Oklahoma St. 31 at  75 Iowa St. 37 82.2% 211
2011/12/03   4 Oklahoma 28 at   5 Oklahoma St. 31 63.0% 172


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 63.0%
Notes: The BCS computers love Oklahoma State and a resounding victory over Oklahoma and an undefeated LSU may propel them to the national title game.


Arkansas Razorbacks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.948 9 0.565 2 23.8 9 11.4 16 165.6 78

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/10 115 New Mexico 3 at  14 Arkansas 52 97.3% 173
2011/09/17  78 Troy 28 at  13 Arkansas 38 86.7% 189
2011/09/24  19 Arkansas 14 at   2 Alabama 38 25.3% 145
2011/10/01  14 Texas A&M 38 vs  16 Arkansas 42 51.6% 208
2011/10/08  23 Auburn 14 at  12 Arkansas 38 63.1% 178
2011/10/22  16 Arkansas 29 at  70 Mississippi 24 82.9% 161
2011/10/29  19 Arkansas 31 at  47 Vanderbilt 28 76.9% 166
2011/11/05  14 South Carolina 28 at  15 Arkansas 44 41.8% 159
2011/11/12  39 Tennessee 7 at   9 Arkansas 49 56.8% 161
2011/11/19  33 Mississippi St. 17 at   9 Arkansas 44 60.8% 173
2011/11/25   9 Arkansas 21 at   2 LSU 34 22.7% 162


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-4.4
Most difficult game left: November 25, at LSU Tigers, 22.7%
Notes: My Razorbacks are the long-shot, even at BCS #3 thanks to a brutal road trip to Baton Rouge on Friday. Even if they win, voters may not elevate them to #2 thanks to a collection of slow 11:00 AM CT starts and a 24-point beat down in Tuscaloosa.


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