Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Week 13: Saturday Recap

This week we're bringing something new to the recaps: in-game win probabilities. We're still working on bringing these graphs to you live on game day -- hence the "beta" tag -- but for now we're hoping they add an extra bit of insight into how each game unfolded.

Week 13
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
RBA  39.4 -  13.6 74.3  40 -  13 75.5
TFG  38.5 -  14.5 72.7  39 -  14 73.6

Game of the Week

Florida State Seminoles 21, Florida Gators 7; 152 plays

(11) Florida St. 31, (16) Florida 30 (54.7%); 158 plays

Even in defeat, TFG continues to overestimate the Gators. Even though Florida State is better than their record would indicate, Florida should have at least made a game of it. By halftime the game was pretty much a lock. The Seminoles had a 14-point lead and were just shy of 90% likely to win. An ugly game, but a win's a win.

(17) Florida 28, (14) Florida St. 24 (63.0%); 163 plays

We said this would be unpredictable. Well, nobody saw the two teams combining for 279 total yards and five turnovers. Unlike LSU-Alabama, which was a hard-hitting game with a bunch of missed field goals, this game was completely forgettable thanks to sloppy play all around. RBA missed the pick, but I get the joy of watching my Florida and Florida State officemates go back and forth for the next few weeks.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game

Wisconsin Badgers 45, Penn State Nittany Lions 7; 155 plays

(6) Wisconsin 34, (31) Penn State 17 (79.7%); 162 plays

Chalk up another one for the Unstoppable Force. I was a bit more pessimistic about the Penn State offense than Justin, and they delivered. The game was higher scoring than expected, largely due to Penn State's turnover problem. When you keep turning the ball over on your side of the field, you're going to surrender points, especially against an offense like Wisconsin's.

(6) Wisconsin 36, (22) Penn State 26 (70.7%); 162 plays

This game was going to be an uphill battle for the Nittany Lions, but they started strong with a 7-0 lead. It was downhill from there. This was another one that was over by halftime. Even with a slow pace, the Badgers proved they've got a dominating offense.

Unstoppable Force 9, Immovable Object 3

Shootout of the Week

Baylor Bears 66, Texas Tech Red Raiders 42; 210 plays

(50) Baylor 41, (71) Texas Tech 36 (63.1%); 178 plays

A game with 210 plays and 108 total points. I'll have to check, but that might set a record for highest combined offensive efficiency in a game (51.4 PPH). Despite being underdogs and down by 10 with about 12 minutes left, the Red Raiders still had a 1-in-4 shot of winning. And that, folks, is why playing "the first to 60 wins" is a bad strategy.

(50) Baylor 38, (63) Texas Tech 31 (58.6%); 175 plays

Jackpot. This game was way higher scoring than expected, making it the perfect shootout. 210 plays in a non-overtime game is absolutely ridiculous. Interestingly, they hit 210 plays despite Baylor running for 360 yards without RG3. Good thing Texas Tech fired Mike Leach; they might become an embarrassment.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Florida Atlantic Owls 38, UAB Blazers 35; 159 plays

(117) FL-Atlantic 31, (118) UAB 27 (73.7%); 164 plays

A football game was played. RBA picked the winner, despite them being winless on the season. I'll consider that a positive.

(112) UAB 36, (117) FL-Atlantic 33 (70.3%); 163 plays

Dammit, another loss. Eddie: I promise I'll tweak it so it'll stop choosing these "who-the-f*ck-are-these-guys" games.

Coin Toss Record: TFG 6, RBA 5.

2011 - 2012 Season
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
TFG 485.7 - 170.3 74.0 481 - 175 73.3
RBA 482.8 - 173.2 73.6 473 - 183 72.1

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