Week 12: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG

Odds as of games through 2011-11-13

Legitimate Title Contenders

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.930	2	0.660	2	31.7	3	11.3	2	156.5	114

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	5	Oregon	27	vs	9	LSU	40	45.4%	184
2011/09/15	7	LSU	19	at	35	Mississippi St.	6	69.4%	150
2011/09/24	5	LSU	47	at	21	West Virginia	21	64.4%	188
2011/10/01	62	Kentucky	7	at	5	LSU	35	93.0%	162
2011/10/08	7	Florida	11	at	3	LSU	41	66.6%	141
2011/10/15	3	LSU	38	at	32	Tennessee	7	81.4%	143
2011/10/22	24	Auburn	10	at	2	LSU	45	88.6%	144
2011/11/05	2	LSU	9	at	1	Alabama	6	27.4%	143
2011/11/12	97	Western Kentucky	9	at	2	LSU	42	98.0%	151
2011/11/19	2	LSU	43	at	87	Mississippi	22	96.6%	159
2011/11/25	12	Arkansas	33	at	2	LSU	39	77.5%	163

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.3
Most difficult game left: November 25, vs Arkansas Razorbacks, 77.5%
Notes: The Tigers are in cruise control mode at the moment. Ole Miss would need an upset of historic proportions to derail LSU, and the Razorbacks would need to beat the Tigers at home. Even a neutral-site game against Georgia (not shown here) in the SEC title game still leaves LSU at about 60% likely to run the table. It's that other 40% that could make things much more interesting.

Second-Tier Hopefuls

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.832	9	0.552	49	28.8	8	15.2	23	179.7	7

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	110	LA-Lafayette	34	at	16	Oklahoma St.	61	96.7%	196
2011/09/08	34	Arizona	14	at	22	Oklahoma St.	37	69.2%	185
2011/09/18	15	Oklahoma St.	59	at	55	Tulsa	33	66.1%	202
2011/09/24	17	Oklahoma St.	30	at	14	Texas A&M	29	38.3%	199
2011/10/08	89	Kansas	28	at	18	Oklahoma St.	70	91.8%	186
2011/10/15	15	Oklahoma St.	38	at	29	Texas	26	51.6%	184
2011/10/22	15	Oklahoma St.	45	at	22	Missouri	24	42.6%	187
2011/10/29	50	Baylor	24	at	12	Oklahoma St.	59	83.3%	190
2011/11/05	35	Kansas St.	45	at	10	Oklahoma St.	52	75.4%	181
2011/11/12	11	Oklahoma St.	66	at	60	Texas Tech	6	77.1%	179
2011/11/18	9	Oklahoma St.	41	at	77	Iowa St.	27	88.6%	177
2011/12/03	4	Oklahoma	38	at	9	Oklahoma St.	36	38.2%	179

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.0
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 38.2%
Notes: The Cowboys get to beat up on Iowa State this Friday night, and then get 15 days to rest and wait for the Sooners. TFG's skepticism of Oklahoma State is well documented, which means the possibility of a 1-loss team squaring off against LSU in the National Title game is entirely likely.

Long Shots

Houston Cougars
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.652	32	0.297	116	26.0	14	20.2	65	180.0	5

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	78	UCLA	34	at	63	Houston	38	74.5%	170
2011/09/10	65	Houston	48	at	109	North Texas	23	73.3%	186
2011/09/17	63	Houston	35	at	77	LA Tech	34	51.2%	205
2011/09/29	63	Houston	49	at	96	UTEP	42	62.1%	178
2011/10/08	80	East Carolina	3	at	66	Houston	56	67.1%	182
2011/10/22	94	Marshall	28	at	52	Houston	63	84.8%	169
2011/10/27	98	Rice	34	at	46	Houston	73	87.2%	179
2011/11/05	40	Houston	56	at	112	UAB	13	89.2%	176
2011/11/10	35	Houston	73	at	114	Tulane	17	91.3%	187
2011/11/19	65	SMU	32	at	32	Houston	38	68.8%	170
2011/11/25	32	Houston	37	at	30	Tulsa	38	48.9%	178

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.0
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 48.9%
Notes: While the Cougars have finally started to show some signed of defense the last two weeks, no one is mistaking them for a legitimate title team.

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