Tuesday Trivia: Not All Undefeated Teams Are Created Equal

Going undefeated over the course of a college football season is a daunting prospect, and few teams have made it through a full season unscathed. Normally a team that finishes the regular season undefeated has a strong argument for inclusion in the national title game, and usually the human voters and computers sort out which of the undefeated teams should play for the title. Over the last few years, though, we've seen teams from outside the six BCS conferences make it to mid-December with a perfect record and argue they deserve a spot in a BCS bowl, if not the title game itself.

Do these claims have any merit?

Some say "no" just on the face of it. They argue that because of the weak schedule these teams face during the regular season that it'd be a surprise if they didn't go undefeated. They say that teams shouldn't be rewarded for playing a schedule full of New Mexicos, Utah States, and Louisiana Techs, no matter how well they do against them. They argue that even if such a team managed a victory against a BCS opponent early on in the season that it doesn't matter since it doesn't reflect sustained performance.

And in many cases they point to the 2007 Hawaii team, a team that went 12-0 in the Western Athletic Conference, only to be ground to a pulp by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. It was the classic David versus Goliath story, except in this case David's sling broke and Goliath had ten of his closest Goliath-sized friends teach the pipsqueak a lesson, sending him back to his tribe as a warning to other potential upstarts. You mess with the bull, you get the horns.

That leaves us wondering, though: are all undefeated teams from outside the BCS conferences created equally? Was Hawaii representative of what an undefeated small-conference team looks like when they take on the might of the dominating SEC? Or are other teams from recent years and the upsets they accomplished the true story?

In order to answer this we took the seven non-BCS teams to finish undefeated in the regular season since 2003 and ranked them from worst to best. We'll look at their schedule, how they played through the year -- the whole body of work, as it were -- and the prediction facing that team as they entered their bowl game.

The full story is after the jump.

Hawaii Warriors
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2007	0.602	44	0.405	84	25.4	12	21.5	79	172.4	25

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2007/09/08	33	Hawaii	45	at	113	LA Tech	44	91.3%	202
2007/09/15	45	Hawaii	49	at	100	UNLV	14	76.5%	170
2007/09/29	37	Hawaii	48	at	111	Idaho	20	86.2%	180
2007/10/06	116	Utah St.	37	at	40	Hawaii	52	96.4%	162
2007/10/12	50	Hawaii	42	at	108	SJSU	35	79.8%	205
2007/10/27	94	New Mexico St.	13	at	51	Hawaii	50	87.3%	173
2007/11/10	56	Fresno St.	30	at	45	Hawaii	37	62.7%	162
2007/11/16	46	Hawaii	28	at	68	Nevada	26	63.7%	160
2007/11/23	10	Boise St.	27	at	45	Hawaii	39	25.6%	172
2007/12/01	53	Washington	28	at	38	Hawaii	35	59.8%	168
2008/01/01	40	Hawaii	10	vs	11	Georgia	41	30.0%	169

We start our journey with the 2007 Hawaii squad that went a perfect 12-0 in the WAC and was rewarded with an invitation to the 2008 Sugar Bowl. Just glancing over their schedule we can see not just one but three close calls against teams in the bottom half of the FBS rankings. Hawaii may have gone 12-0 and snagged a 12 point win against (10) Boise State, but just a week earlier they'd snuck past (68) Nevada by two points. The Warriors started out the season ranked 45th, and didn't do much throughout the year to deviate too much from that ranking. Bouncing around between 37th and 50th all year, the Warriors were ranked 40th when they squared off against 11th-ranked Georgia. It doesn't take a math genius to know that when you pit the #11 team against the #40 team that things aren't going to go well for the one outside the top 25 (although someone needed to tell these guys that). Hawaii finished the season ranked 44th, and provided a warning to any team coming from the WAC that simply "undefeated" wasn't good enough.

Boise State Broncos
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2006	0.797	18	0.414	85	27.3	5	15.8	38	169.2	51

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2006/09/07	55	Oregon St.	14	at	30	Boise St.	42	77.9%	144
2006/09/16	27	Boise St.	17	at	57	Wyoming	10	64.8%	148
2006/09/23	60	Hawaii	34	at	26	Boise St.	41	82.3%	153
2006/09/30	28	Boise St.	36	at	25	Utah	3	37.7%	143
2006/10/07	98	LA Tech	14	at	17	Boise St.	55	95.5%	164
2006/10/15	17	Boise St.	40	at	108	New Mexico St.	28	94.6%	172
2006/10/21	20	Boise St.	42	at	110	Idaho	26	93.5%	164
2006/11/01	57	Fresno St.	21	at	25	Boise St.	45	78.7%	145
2006/11/11	20	Boise St.	23	at	91	SJSU	20	86.9%	135
2006/11/18	117	Utah St.	10	at	24	Boise St.	49	98.1%	142
2006/11/25	24	Boise St.	38	at	39	Nevada	7	61.7%	139
2007/01/01	8	Oklahoma	42	vs	18	Boise St.	43	40.5%	170

The second team on our countdown is the 2006 Boise State Broncos. You've probably heard of this team. Three trick plays and one overtime against traditional powerhouse Oklahoma catapulted the Broncos and coach Chris Petersen into the national spotlight. This squad started the year in the mid-20s and slowly climbed their way into the top 25. Notice the difference between this team and the Hawaii team that flamed out against Georgia: only three close games all year, and the only "bad" one there was a 23-20 victory on the road against (91) San Jose State. These Broncos had a solid season that included convincing wins against (55) Oregon State, (25) Utah, and (39) Nevada. This team didn't have the defensive skills we've come to expect from more recent Boise State teams, as even (108) New Mexico State and (110) Idaho put up 20+ points. Going into the now-legendary Fiesta Bowl the Broncos were slight underdogs -- TFG would have given them a 2-in-5 shot of winning -- and the results bore out the reality that this Boise State team was extremely good but not truly elite.

Utah Utes
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2004	0.799	14	0.433	81	28.8	4	16.6	42	169.9	65

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2004/09/02	70	Texas A&M	21	at	31	Utah	41	86.2%	185
2004/09/11	33	Utah	23	at	93	Arizona	6	81.5%	140
2004/09/18	29	Utah	48	at	93	Utah St.	6	84.2%	162
2004/09/25	60	Air Force	35	at	22	Utah	49	84.7%	180
2004/10/01	19	Utah	28	at	46	New Mexico	7	61.2%	175
2004/10/16	71	North Carolina	16	at	15	Utah	46	90.9%	176
2004/10/23	77	UNLV	28	at	12	Utah	63	92.7%	172
2004/10/30	13	Utah	51	at	79	SDSU	28	83.7%	186
2004/11/06	59	Colorado St.	31	at	14	Utah	63	82.5%	170
2004/11/13	15	Utah	45	at	79	Wyoming	28	86.4%	162
2004/11/20	61	BYU	21	at	15	Utah	52	78.2%	160
2005/01/01	14	Utah	35	vs	38	Pittsburgh	7	70.6%	158

The first of back-to-back Utah entries, this 2004 squad helmed by second-year coach Urban Meyer was the first non-BCS team to receive a BCS invitation. Their final regular season ranking of 6th in the BCS was a bit higher than their TFG ranking, but the Utes had the good fortune to be paired against a mediocre Pittsburgh team in the Fiesta Bowl. This team finished their regular season with no final scores closer than two touchdowns, and was never an underdog at any point in their schedule. Like the previous Boise State team, this one faltered on defense occasionally -- truly elite teams don't give up 28 points to (79) San Diego State or (79) Wyoming -- but had more than enough offensive firepower to get the job done. Coach Meyer left for Florida the next year, but Utah was able to rebuild and run the table again ....

Utah Utes
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2008	0.841	10	0.494	68	24.9	15	12.8	10	169.4	39

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2008/08/30	24	Utah	25	at	14	Michigan	23	41.5%	178
2008/09/06	94	UNLV	21	at	24	Utah	42	93.4%	159
2008/09/13	25	Utah	58	at	114	Utah St.	10	89.9%	158
2008/09/20	21	Utah	30	at	41	Air Force	23	53.7%	155
2008/10/02	34	Oregon St.	28	at	21	Utah	31	67.7%	163
2008/10/11	22	Utah	40	at	115	Wyoming	7	93.3%	162
2008/10/18	85	Colorado St.	16	at	17	Utah	49	91.8%	162
2008/11/01	15	Utah	13	at	57	New Mexico	10	73.3%	157
2008/11/06	7	TCU	10	at	15	Utah	13	39.8%	171
2008/11/15	12	Utah	63	at	116	SDSU	14	96.3%	167
2008/11/22	17	BYU	24	at	12	Utah	48	58.9%	169
2009/01/02	10	Utah	31	vs	8	Alabama	17	39.3%	158

... in 2008. This team lacked the offensive weapons of the 2004 team (-3.9 PPH), but made up for it by clamping down on defense (-3.8 PPH). This team also played a slightly tougher schedule, including a game at (14) Michigan, and hosting (34) Oregon State, (7) TCU, and (17) BYU. One year after Georgia demolished Hawaii in the Sugar bowl, another SEC team took a crack at a BCS buster and learned what this computer could have told them: this Utah team was not Hawaii. This Utah squad was closer to the Georgia squad from the previous year, and Alabama found themselves on the losing end of this realization. Utah jumped out to a 21 point lead in the first quarter, and their top-10 defense held the Crimson Tide to 17 points, the fewest Alabama had scored all year. The Utes -- complete with some fun trickery -- emerged as the only undefeated team in FBS for the 2008 - 2009 season. While TFG thinks they were just barely inside the top 10, there's still an argument to be made that Utah manhandled Alabama more thoroughly than in their other loss to eventual champion Florida.

Boise State Broncos
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2009	0.866	7	0.398	90	26.9	7	12.7	12	168.1	53

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2009/09/03	16	Oregon	8	at	8	Boise St.	19	77.0%	158
2009/09/12	116	Miami-OH	0	at	7	Boise St.	48	99.0%	151
2009/09/18	3	Boise St.	51	at	70	Fresno St.	34	89.9%	155
2009/09/26	5	Boise St.	49	at	73	Bowling Green	14	87.5%	166
2009/10/14	5	Boise St.	28	at	52	Tulsa	21	83.5%	158
2009/10/24	6	Boise St.	54	at	91	Hawaii	9	93.7%	165
2009/10/31	102	SJSU	7	at	5	Boise St.	45	98.2%	162
2009/11/06	4	Boise St.	45	at	85	LA Tech	35	94.7%	171
2009/11/14	96	Idaho	25	at	8	Boise St.	63	95.9%	160
2009/11/20	7	Boise St.	52	at	91	Utah St.	21	93.9%	170
2009/11/27	49	Nevada	33	at	7	Boise St.	44	83.3%	161
2009/12/05	120	New Mexico St.	7	at	8	Boise St.	42	98.8%	156
2010/01/04	2	TCU	10	vs	8	Boise St.	17	30.9%	166

Boise State makes their third and final appearance on our countdown with their 2009 team. The 2009 squad was about 3.1 PPH better on defense while only slipping 0.4 PPH on adjusted offensive efficiency. This squad was much more dominating against middling and inferior opponents, and boasted regular-season victories over (16) Oregon, (49) Nevada, and (52) Tulsa. Unfortunately those three teams were the only ones in the top half of the FBS echelons that the Broncos played. The rest of their schedule was filled with basement-dwelling WAC teams, leaving Boise State to play the numbers game and pound their opponents as much as possible to get the respect they wanted. From there they could hope for a BCS bid against a "Big Six" conference opponent.

Unfortunately for Boise the game doesn't quite work this way, and the Broncos got shuffled into what some fans called the "Plessy v. Fergeson Separate But Equal" Fiesta Bowl against (2) TCU. The Horned Frogs had just completed their own undefeated regular season (hold that thought) and were hoping to take on Florida or Cincinnati in a BCS bowl. Conspiracy theorists argue that the Fiesta Bowl bit the bullet for the entire BCS system and invited both outsiders to the same bowl in order to prevent the spectacle of Boise and TCU prevailing over two BCS conference teams. In any event, the Broncos were slight underdogs when they pulled off a stunning upset over TCU to avenge a loss the previous year in the Poinsettia Bowl.

TCU Horned Frogs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2009	0.923	2	0.501	67	26.1	9	9.6	1	166.8	63

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2009/09/12	5	TCU	30	at	65	Virginia	14	84.6%	148
2009/09/26	7	TCU	14	at	18	Clemson	10	56.8%	162
2009/10/03	112	SMU	14	at	10	TCU	39	98.5%	157
2009/10/10	8	TCU	20	at	53	Air Force	17	79.8%	166
2009/10/17	65	Colorado St.	6	at	8	TCU	44	92.9%	152
2009/10/24	7	TCU	38	at	22	BYU	7	68.7%	160
2009/10/31	92	UNLV	0	at	6	TCU	41	97.4%	149
2009/11/07	2	TCU	55	at	106	SDSU	12	97.4%	163
2009/11/14	17	Utah	28	at	3	TCU	55	82.6%	176
2009/11/21	2	TCU	45	at	108	Wyoming	10	98.4%	153
2009/11/28	108	New Mexico	10	at	3	TCU	51	98.1%	178
2010/01/04	2	TCU	10	vs	8	Boise St.	17	69.1%	166

Here we have the flip side of the 2009 Boise State team. TCU didn't quite have the offense that the Broncos did, but it certainly had the better defense. In fact, TFG rated the Horned Frogs as having the best defense in all of FBS. Their strength of schedule might not have weighed in impressively, but they held (65) UVa to less than 10 PPH, (18) Clemson to 6.2 PPH, and (22) BYU to 4.4 PPH. Their worst defensive showing was to (17) Utah, giving up 15.9 PPH. This is the same Utah squad, by the way, that put up 13.6 PPH on the road against Oregon early in the season when home field advantage is worth more. So when TCU and their defense marched into the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State, they did so as better than 2-to-1 favorites. As noted, though, Boise had a few tricks up their sleeve and walked away with the win. Which brings us to ....

TCU Horned Frogs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2010	0.934	1	0.452	78	29.3	5	10.1	1	161.4	99

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2010/09/04	2	TCU	30	vs	27	Oregon St.	21	85.0%	156
2010/09/18	68	Baylor	10	at	4	TCU	45	95.1%	153
2010/09/24	4	TCU	41	at	74	SMU	24	92.1%	162
2010/10/02	4	TCU	27	at	108	Colorado St.	0	97.2%	153
2010/10/09	102	Wyoming	0	at	2	TCU	45	98.6%	135
2010/10/16	51	BYU	3	at	1	TCU	31	95.9%	156
2010/10/23	39	Air Force	7	at	1	TCU	38	94.7%	137
2010/10/30	1	TCU	48	at	102	UNLV	6	98.3%	155
2010/11/06	1	TCU	47	at	10	Utah	7	78.1%	148
2010/11/13	80	SDSU	35	at	1	TCU	40	98.3%	173
2010/11/27	1	TCU	66	at	116	New Mexico	17	99.5%	170
2011/01/01	15	Wisconsin	19	vs	1	TCU	21	81.2%	138

... the 2010 TCU Horned Frogs. They were the 2010 TFG/RBA Consensus National Champion. Their defense might have slipped a half-step from the previous year, but QB Andy Dalton managed to find another 3.2 PPH on offense. Their schedule wasn't as tough as the previous year, and TCU once again plowed their way through a perfect regular season. This time they got pitted against Big 10 champion Wisconsin -- another team that had stormed through the regular season -- in what looked to be an interesting referendum on our computer predictions. The computers declared TCU to be the heavy favorites while Vegas cautiously listed the Horned Frogs as a favorite by a field goal. (The moral of this story is: Vegas knows what it's doing.)

So Now What?

This was close to being a contrast of this year's Boise State and Houston teams. I say "was" because Boise's kicking woes continued, and they lost to TCU, 36-35 this past Saturday. (Silly Mountain West Conference; biased refereeing in order to protect your undefeated teams should be left to the SEC.) But why don't we have a go at it, just for the sake of comparison?

Houston Cougars
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.652	32	0.297	116	26.0	14	20.2	65	180.0	5

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	78	UCLA	34	at	63	Houston	38	74.5%	170
2011/09/10	65	Houston	48	at	109	North Texas	23	73.3%	186
2011/09/17	63	Houston	35	at	77	LA Tech	34	51.2%	205
2011/09/29	63	Houston	49	at	96	UTEP	42	62.1%	178
2011/10/08	80	East Carolina	3	at	66	Houston	56	67.1%	182
2011/10/22	94	Marshall	28	at	52	Houston	63	84.8%	169
2011/10/27	98	Rice	34	at	46	Houston	73	87.2%	179
2011/11/05	40	Houston	56	at	112	UAB	13	89.2%	176
2011/11/10	35	Houston	73	at	114	Tulane	17	91.3%	187
2011/11/19	65	SMU	32	at	32	Houston	38	68.8%	170
2011/11/25	32	Houston	37	at	30	Tulsa	38	48.9%	178

This team is much closer to the 2007 Hawaii squad than even the 2006 Boise State team. A good offense paired with an incredibly suspect defense (20.2 PPH) is cause for alarm. Houston plays fast, too, which only boosts the hype of this team by inflating the sense of accomplishment on the offensive side. Winning by 4 against (78) UCLA, by 1 against (77) Louisiana Tech, and 7 against (96) UTEP does not engender much confidence. The Cougars finally started to play some defense in the last two games, but even then they let two of the ten worst teams in FBS average a shade better than two touchdowns. When you're not even the favorite in your season closer against a team outside of the top 25, don't expect much respect when you ask to be let into the BCS. The #11 ranking the Cougars have in the BCS is pure illusion, and they would crash and burn hard if they ever ran into a real team.

Boise State Broncos
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.898	3	0.481	70	30.7	5	12.9	6	163.5	81

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	23	Georgia	21	vs	2	Boise St.	35	84.9%	159
2011/09/16	2	Boise St.	40	at	65	Toledo	15	89.8%	181
2011/09/24	52	Tulsa	21	at	2	Boise St.	41	93.1%	162
2011/10/01	45	Nevada	10	at	2	Boise St.	30	91.2%	159
2011/10/07	2	Boise St.	57	at	72	Fresno St.	7	90.9%	161
2011/10/15	2	Boise St.	63	at	109	Colorado St.	13	98.2%	162
2011/10/22	62	Air Force	26	at	3	Boise St.	37	95.9%	158
2011/11/05	3	Boise St.	48	at	113	UNLV	21	98.6%	158
2011/11/12	9	TCU	36	at	3	Boise St.	35	71.4%	162
2011/11/19	3	Boise St.	40	at	63	SDSU	25	90.6%	166
2011/11/26	93	Wyoming	23	at	3	Boise St.	43	95.5%	166
2011/12/03	120	New Mexico	17	at	3	Boise St.	48	99.4%	163

Ah, what could have been. A 14 point victory against SEC-title-bound Georgia. A 20 point victory over now-30th-ranked Tulsa. A good win against Nevada. A dominating performance against (9) TCU. Well, two out of three isn't bad. This Boise State team is better than the one that beat TCU in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl. Before you scoff, read the first answer here, and then tell me that Texas Tech would beat Oklahoma again. The better team doesn't always win, but Boise State really needed to thump TCU in order to make their case for a BCS bowl.

The bottom line is that not all non-BCS challengers are created equal, and answering cries of "2007 Hawaii" with retorts of "2008 Utah" are perfectly valid (we'll also take "2010 TCU" as an acceptable answer). Bear that in mind in two months when "2011 Houston" joins the ranks of non-BCS teams that get thrashed in a BCS bowl. Unless they have the good fortune to get paired with the Big East champion; I'm pretty sure even Houston would have a fighting chance there.

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