Monday, September 19, 2011

Week 4: Top 25 -- TFG


Week 3 is in the books, and the computers continue to get a better view of how this year is going to shake out.

Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.945 0.528 45 28.8 7 9.3 1 159.1 107
2 -- Boise St. 0.915 0.471 74 28.8 8 11.2 3 166.6 59
3 +2 Stanford 0.898 0.499 64 31.1 1 13.0 8 160.4 98
4 +2 Oklahoma 0.896 0.653 9 25.5 17 10.8 2 179.7 6
5 +2 LSU 0.890 0.690 5 29.5 3 12.8 7 156.1 118
6 -2 Florida 0.885 0.516 56 26.4 12 11.6 4 161.9 92
7 -4 Ohio St. 0.863 0.481 68 24.2 19 11.6 5 158.3 110
8 +1 Oregon 0.862 0.645 11 27.5 10 13.2 10 185.5 1
9 +4 Wisconsin 0.859 0.474 71 29.8 2 14.5 18 158.4 109
10 -2 TCU 0.854 0.429 89 29.0 5 14.3 16 163.3 80
11 -- Virginia Tech 0.854 0.531 41 25.7 16 12.7 6 156.2 116
12 -2 Arkansas 0.806 0.533 40 27.5 9 15.6 26 169.5 36
13 -1 Florida St. 0.803 0.632 14 26.0 15 14.8 22 157.5 114
14 +5 Texas A&M 0.790 0.557 32 22.4 33 13.2 9 176.3 12
15 NA Miami-FL 0.781 0.693 4 23.6 22 14.2 14 166.9 53
16 NA Utah 0.781 0.509 57 24.0 21 14.5 17 165.5 69
17 -2 Oklahoma St. 0.779 0.524 49 26.1 13 15.8 29 182.8 2
18 -1 Nebraska 0.758 0.523 50 24.1 20 15.3 25 165.9 64
19 -5 Auburn 0.753 0.634 13 29.1 4 18.7 55 169.7 33
20 -2 Georgia 0.749 0.715 1 28.9 6 18.6 53 157.9 112
21 -5 West Virginia 0.748 0.507 60 22.8 30 14.8 19 160.0 103
22 +2 Texas 0.740 0.479 70 22.9 28 15.1 23 163.1 83
23 -- USC 0.739 0.553 33 22.4 34 14.8 20 168.3 46
24 -2 Missouri 0.735 0.561 31 20.5 49 13.6 11 171.2 25
25 -5 Iowa 0.734 0.576 26 23.3 23 15.6 27 168.7 41

New entries: Miami-FL, Utah.

Dropped out: South Carolina, Michigan St.

Out with the old, in with the new. And then there's Alabama. The Crimson Tide solidify their hold on the top spot by shutting out whipping boy North Texas. Meanwhile Stanford, Oklahoma, and LSU continue their charge up the rankings, while Ohio State, TCU, and Auburn begin their slow drift downwards. Ohio State, in particular, is still living off their power rankings from old data. The computer doesn't know about the loss of Jim Tressel or key pieces of OSU's squad, but it'll figure it out soon enough as the Buckeyes post less and less impressive stats.

Miami benefits from this, though, as the Hurricanes leap 14 spots to land in the top 25 thanks to a thumping of an apparently-powerful Buckeye team. Utah also makes an amazing leap into the top 25, gaining 15 spots thanks to a 44-point thumping of BYU.

On the flip side, South Carolina snuck by Navy to win by 3, but that wasn't enough to keep them in the top 25. Michigan State didn't even manage to win, dropping an important one to Notre Dame by 18 and dropping out of the top 25 as a result.

This season is shaping up to be a five-way race between Alabama, Boise State, Stanford, Oklahoma, and LSU. The last three, in particular, are separated by less than one-hundredth of a point and are looking to make up the gap from last year. Two more weeks and we'll be ready to start looking at conference projections and the national title picture in earnest.

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