Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Week 4: Saturday Recap

[ Note: Justin is on the road this week and won't have much to say about his games. ]

Week 4 is in the books, so let's look at the recap of our games of the week.

Week 4
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
TFG  34.6 -  12.4 73.6  34 -  13 72.3
RBA  33.8 -  13.2 71.9  34 -  13 72.3

Game of the Week
LSU Tigers 47, West Virginia Mountaineers 21

(5) LSU 33, (21) West Virginia 29 (64.2%)

The final score was actually less close than the actual game, which saw four West Virginia turnovers that yielded 21 points for LSU. If the Mountaineers hold onto the ball a bit better, then the game becomes much more interesting. As it was, LSU completely dominated and will look to rise in the rankings this week.

(17) West Virginia 25, (8) LSU 24 (64.7%)

I didn't get to watch this game because my cable went out (more later), but all reviews are that LSU laid a real butt whoopin' on the Mountaineers. As predicted, the Tiger offense sputtered to 366 yards of total offense, which would rate them 83rd in the country on average. However, West Virginia provided four turnovers to the Tigers, and Tiger punter Brad Wing delivered with six kicks inside the WVU 15. All things considered, RBA predicted much of what happened. It just didn't account for how generous the Mountaineer offense and special teams would be.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game
Alabama Crimson Tide 38, Arkansas Razorbacks 14

(2) Alabama 34, (13) Arkansas 21 (74.7%)

I told my wife, "Good news: The cable went out. Bad news: I'm happy about it." Alabama scored 21 points on special teams and defense. The Razorback defense held Trent Richardson and company to only 17 points, which is actually pretty good given that they were missing starting DEs Jake Bequette (hamstring) and Tenarius Wright (broken arm). The Hogs simply couldn't run the ball with Ronnie Wingo and take some pressure off Tyler Wilson. If Arkansas can slow down Alabama's running game, LSU should be able to do it. The question is if LSU can score on Alabama, either. We'll find out on November 5.

(1) Alabama 37, (12) Arkansas 29 (86.0%)

Apparently I over-estimated Arkansas' ability to score against Alabama. The Crimson Tide are scary good, and have a legitimate shot to displace LSU as SEC favorites and possibly even national championship favorites. The Razorbacks aren't bad by any stretch of the imagination, it was just that they ran into an absolute brick wall.

Shootout of the Week
Boise State Broncos 41, Tulsa Golden Hurricane 21

(2) Boise St. 43, (52) Tulsa 26 (93.2%)

Off by 2 (Boise) and 5 (Tulsa). I can live with this prediction. In the meantime I'll see about finding more interesting matchups in the coming weeks.

(4) Boise St. 49, (59) Tulsa 17 (89.8%)

Poor, poor Tulsa. They scored 14 in the 4th quarter to make it respectable, but Boise State opened a can of whoop ass on them. The Broncos pulled Kellen Moore in the 3rd quarter and still hung 41 on the Golden Hurricane. They scored 34 before the Golden Hurricane sniffed the end zone. This game was every bit the shootout we expected it to be. I attribute the score difference to Boise State pulling their starters so early.

Coin Toss Game of the Week
North Texas Mean Green 24, Indiana Hoosiers 21

(108) North Texas 31, (96) Indiana 28 (59.7%)

I'm not even going to pretend that I knew how this game was going to turn out. I sent a text message to Justin bragging that the Mean Green were leading 21-0 at the half and that I was well on my way to victory. Then, the Hoosiers went on a 21 point run in the 4th quarter. Needless to say, I'm happy to finally win a toss-up. Even with all the mess, RBA managed to get the exact margin of victory -- three points in favor of North Texas, 24-21.

(98) Indiana 36, (108) North Texas 35 (57.5%)

Chalk one up for RBA. Fortunately we split the other games on which our systems disagreed, 2-1 in my favor, so I didn't lose any more ground for the season tally. Plus I'm still up one in the coin toss games. On to next week!

Coin Toss Record: TFG 2, RBA 1.

2011 - 2012 Season
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
RBA 134.1 -  44.9 74.9 135 -  44 75.4
TFG 136.1 -  42.9 76.0 132 -  47 73.7

Follow us on Twitter @TFGridiron.