Monday, September 19, 2011

Week 3: Saturday Recap

Another week in the books, and the roles are reversed slightly. TFG clawed back the game it lost to RBA last week, but both systems did about as well as expected.

Week 3
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
TFG  35.6 -  12.4 74.1  36 -  12 75.0
RBA  35.8 -  12.2 74.6  35 -  13 72.9

Game of the Week
Oklahoma Sooners 23, Florida State Seminoles 13

(6) Oklahoma 33, (12) Florida St. 32 (51.7%)

This was a very physical game that was closer than the final score expected. The Sooners are currently the top team in the AP rankings, and I'm probably going to get less grief than I did previously about having them highly ranked. Florida State had some problems scoring against the Sooners, but they're unlikely to face another team like Oklahoma the rest of the season (the verdict is still out on Miami and Florida). Of course Oklahoma's season is going to be overshadowed by lots of "What's going to happen to the Big XII" talk, but TFG isn't aware of any of that, instead crediting the Sooners with a good win over a top-15 opponent.

(17) Florida St. 29, (6) Oklahoma 28 (71.9%)

As Justin suggested, this game was really close. I stand by RBA's prediction. Florida State's starting quarterback left the game with an injury, so who knows what would have happened if E.J. Manuel had stayed healthy. The Seminole defense abused Landry Jones and the Oklahoma offense. Somebody had to lose, and it just happened to be Florida State. On the other hand, Oklahoma played well, too, and moves up slightly in the RBA top 25. They're still overrated because of their tempo, but they're within striking distance of Stanford, Alabama, Wisconsin, and Boise State.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game
Stanford Cardinal 37, Arizona Wildcats 10

(1) Stanford 35, (32) Arizona 21 (79.2%)

Stanford managed to survive injuries to its top two receivers and top defender to beat Arizona in Tucson. The Cardinal rammed it down the Wildcats' throats to the point where Farkers were drinking on "power running game." Their running game wore down the Arizona defense. Andrew Luck was efficient and kept the safeties at home. All in all, it was everything one would expect from the top team in the country. Arizona quarterback Nick Foles played quite well for only scoring 10 points, completing his first 17 passes. It simply wasn't enough to compensate for 51 yards rushing.

(5) Stanford 36, (39) Arizona 27 (76.5%)

This was billed as a showdown between Stanford's offense and Arizona's defense, and for one half it was. Arizona even ha a shot to take a lead going into halftime, but Stanford gamed the system with a pass interference call that denied the Wildcats a chance to take the lead. It was all downhill from there, though, as Stanford's offense started firing on all cylinders. Arizona had no response. Chalk one up for the unstoppable force.

Shootout of the Week
Oklahoma State Cowboys 59, Tulsa Golden Hurricane 33

(15) Oklahoma St. 38, (55) Tulsa 33 (66.1%)

Technically this game wasn't played until the 18th thanks to a weather delay that pushed the opening kickoff past midnight. Tulsa got their 33 points, but TFG was about three touchdowns shy of predicting Oklahoma State's final tally. Oklahoma State was viciously efficient, having racked up 45 points 36 minutes into the game. Pace contributed, too, as this game tallied over 200 plays and delivered as the "Shootout of the Week."

(10) Oklahoma St. 38, (60) Tulsa 27 (70.7%)

Not much more to add beyond Justin's analysis. Oklahoma State scored at will, as predicted. You have to wonder if the defenses were tired before kickoff and dead men walking by the 3:35 AM end. If so, maybe this wouldn't have been quite as bad for the Golden Hurricane.

Coin Toss Game of the Week
West Virginia Mountaineers 37, Maryland Terrapins 31

(35) Maryland 25, (18) West Virginia 24 (64.4%)

Maryland opted for the all black uniforms, so they didn't have quite enough fugly to hold back West Virginia. This game started ugly with a 24-3 West Virginia lead, but Maryland clawed back to 37-31 before throwing the game clenching interception deep in West Virginia territory with 1:13 remaining. As with all toss-ups, you win some and you lose some. This time, I missed two in a row. Maybe Auburn's luck rubbed off on Justin.

(16) West Virginia 31, (46) Maryland 29 (60.4%)

Apparently ugly uniforms didn't help as much against West Virginia as they did against Miami. It's possible that Maryland needed to switch to something even more unique to give their QB better odds of throwing it to the right team. Maryland has two non-conference games left, including one against FCS Towson, before starting the hectic ACC schedule. West Virginia, on the other hand, has a showdown against LSU before heading into a Big East schedule that includes send-off games against Syracuse and Pittsburgh.

Coin Toss Record: TFG 2, RBA 0.

2011 - 2012 Season
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
RBA 100.2 -  31.8 75.9 101 -  31 76.5
TFG 101.4 -  30.6 76.8  98 -  34 74.2

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