Thursday, December 29, 2011

2011 - 2012 Bowl Previews: Part VI


Today is Part VI of our 2011 - 2012 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • TicketCity Bowl
    Houston Cougars vs Penn State Nittany Lions
  • Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl
    Florida Gators vs Ohio State Buckeyes
  • Capital One Bowl
    Nebraska Cornhuskers vs South Carolina Gamecocks
  • Discover Orange Bowl
    Clemson Tigers vs West Virginia Mountaineers
  • Champs Sports Bowl
    Florida State Seminoles vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Full previews after the jump ....

10. TicketCity Bowl

Monday, January 2 at 12:00 PM

Houston Cougars (11 - 1; 8 - 1 Conference-USA)
vs
Penn State Nittany Lions (8 - 3; 6 - 2 Big Ten)
GUGS Score: 59.0

Justin

Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.704 24 0.359 108 26.0 13 18.4 55 181.0 4
Penn State Nittany Lions
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.680 27 0.624 10 16.4 89 12.2 3 167.8 47

In the grand scheme of things, it's best that Houston lost their final game of the year. They weren't a particularly good undefeated non-BCS team, and it's likely that had they made it into a big bowl game we would have seen shades of 2007 Hawaii all over again. That said, the Cougars are a good team with a top-tier offense and a decent defense; Penn State, on the other hand, matches the third-best defense in FBS with Rice's offense. That might not be a fatal blow, though, as even the Owls managed to hang 34 points on Houston. Houston, however, certainly won't put up 73 against the Nittany Lion defense. Similar to last year's TCU/Wisconsin game, this will be a referendum on how TFG handles two top teams with very different resumes. TFG says that the Cougar offense will be strong enough to power past the Nittany Lion defense, and Penn State's inept offense won't be strong enough to put up enough points. Houston 33, Penn State 30 (52.8%); 174 plays.

Eddie

Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.789 28 0.472 84 22.4 15 15.3 57 175.5 4
Penn State Nittany Lions
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.712 38 0.543 26 13.2 90 10.2 6 163.4 98

As Justin suggests, this game pits two contrasting styles, but RBA doesn't give Penn State quite the credit TFG does. The Penn State defense is good but not great at 2.4 +/- 15.6 PPH. That's good for a lot of teams, and it matches up quite well against a Houston 39.2 +/- 33.7 PPH offense known to disappear against high caliber competition. It's difficult to make that claim too strongly, since Houston has played only one team in the RBA top 40 this year (#15 Southern Miss, a 49-28 loss). The other side of the ball should be a comedy of errors, with Penn State's anemic 20.5 +/- 14.7 PPH offense facing off against the generous 11.2 +/- 8.3 PPH Houston defense. In the end, RBA thinks that Penn State simply lacks the firepower to keep up with Houston, ending with a 28-20 Cougar victory with 59.1% confidence.


Houston Cougars Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03  78 /  66 UCLA 34 at  63 /  67 Houston 38 170  74.5% /  50.7%
2011/09/10  65 /  63 Houston 48 at 109 / 111 North Texas 23 186  73.3% /  68.4%
2011/09/17  63 /  67 Houston 35 at  77 /  79 LA Tech 34 205  51.2% /  64.5%
2011/09/29  63 /  63 Houston 49 at  96 /  97 UTEP 42 178  62.1% /  75.5%
2011/10/08  80 /  93 East Carolina 3 at  66 /  56 Houston 56 182  67.1% /  56.0%
2011/10/22  94 /  99 Marshall 28 at  52 /  45 Houston 63 169  84.8% /  70.9%
2011/10/27  98 /  98 Rice 34 at  46 /  47 Houston 73 179  87.2% /  81.7%
2011/11/05  40 /  48 Houston 56 at 112 / 119 UAB 13 176  89.2% /  84.0%
2011/11/10  35 /  50 Houston 73 at 114 / 113 Tulane 17 187  91.3% /  90.1%
2011/11/19  65 /  72 SMU 7 at  32 /  45 Houston 37 167  68.8% /  61.5%
2011/11/25  27 /  24 Houston 48 at  30 /  50 Tulsa 16 190  53.1% /  47.1%
2011/12/03  43 /  15 Southern Miss. 49 at  23 /  28 Houston 28 205  63.2% /  52.0%
2012/01/02  27 /  38 Penn State -- vs  24 /  28 Houston -- --  52.8% /  59.1%


Penn State Nittany Lions Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/10   2 /   3 Alabama 27 at  33 /  37 Penn State 11 164  20.5% /  10.6%
2011/09/17  30 /  38 Penn State 14 at  54 /  61 Temple 10 155  53.7% /  66.5%
2011/09/24 117 / 116 Eastern Michigan 6 at  29 /  37 Penn State 34 156  97.6% /  96.7%
2011/10/01  24 /  39 Penn State 16 at  97 /  98 Indiana 10 193  85.0% /  84.2%
2011/10/08  25 /  17 Iowa 3 at  30 /  40 Penn State 13 154  56.8% /  47.8%
2011/10/15  73 /  78 Purdue 18 at  24 /  35 Penn State 23 161  86.9% /  83.3%
2011/10/22  26 /  40 Penn State 34 at  69 /  86 Northwestern 24 165  68.3% /  75.6%
2011/10/29  43 /  46 Illinois 7 at  25 /  36 Penn State 10 172  74.0% /  51.7%
2011/11/12  16 /  18 Nebraska 17 at  27 /  37 Penn State 14 180  47.9% /  34.5%
2011/11/19  26 /  31 Penn State 20 at  11 /  18 Ohio St. 14 138  39.0% /  34.2%
2011/11/26  22 /  37 Penn State 7 at   6 /   4 Wisconsin 45 155  29.3% /  20.3%
2012/01/02  27 /  38 Penn State -- vs  24 /  28 Houston -- --  47.2% /  40.9%


9. Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl

Monday, January 2 at 1:00 PM

Florida Gators (5 - 6; 3 - 5 SEC)
vs
Ohio State Buckeyes (6 - 6; 3 - 5 Big Ten)
GUGS Score: 60.9

Eddie

Florida Gators
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.885 18 0.556 8 20.4 24 7.9 3 161.3 109
Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.841 21 0.531 46 18.6 37 12.0 25 159.1 116

In spite of their combined 12 losses, RBA considers both these teams to be top 25 caliber. Contrasting with my Houston-Penn State bowl preview, Ohio State's 4.2 +/- 15.7 PPH defense is only slightly worse than the Nittany Lions', but their offense is considerably better at 25.2 +/- 13.1 PPH. As ugly as it has been for the Gators, their offense is only marginally worse than the Cougars at 35.4 +/- 29.9 PPH. They only look inept because (a) they play much slower and (b) injuries to the quarterback against top-flight competition. The Gators' big problem is on defense, where their 0.0 +/- 28.2 PPH efficiency suggest that they are prone to really bad streaks against good teams. As sad as Florida's defense has become, their offense should be able to move the ball against the Buckeyes. In fact, RBA is so confident that Florida is given a 75.0% chance of beating Ohio State, 28-20.

Justin

Florida Gators
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.756 18 0.656 4 22.8 27 14.5 16 160.4 99
Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.750 19 0.563 46 23.0 26 14.8 18 158.6 107

"How," you might ask, "can a bowl game with two teams at or below 0.500 be one of the ten best bowl games this year? This is not 2007." Very true. However, both teams are very good, this is going to be close. The Gators are having a down year, but their losses are to (1) Alabama, (2) LSU, (10) Florida State, (15) South Carolina, (20) Georgia, and (40) Auburn. Of those, only the Auburn loss is particularly egregious. On top of that -- ignoring Alabama and LSU -- the Gators never surrendered more than 14.0 PPH. The Buckeyes' resume is a bit more damaging, not necessarily because any of the losses are bad per se -- (12) Michigan, (13) Michigan State, (22) Nebraska, (27) Penn State, and (29) Miami are all good teams -- it's just that there are so many of them. Both teams are slow with strong defenses, so this one will likely be a defensive slog in search of a few moments of excitement. Expect this one to come down to a late drive or field goal. TFG says this one is a coin toss, with the slight edge going to Florida. In reality, this one's too close to call. Florida 30, Ohio St. 29 (50.7%); 159 plays.


Florida Gators Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03 113 / 111 FL-Atlantic 3 at  11 /  16 Florida 41 149  97.5% /  97.7%
2011/09/10  95 /  94 UAB 0 at   8 /  14 Florida 39 152  96.5% /  93.1%
2011/09/17  38 /  25 Tennessee 23 at   4 /  11 Florida 33 167  88.6% /  75.4%
2011/09/24   6 /   9 Florida 48 at  53 /  50 Kentucky 10 170  81.4% /  85.3%
2011/10/01   1 /   1 Alabama 38 at   3 /  11 Florida 10 146  41.5% /  29.5%
2011/10/08   7 /  13 Florida 11 at   3 /   3 LSU 41 141  33.4% /  45.2%
2011/10/15   8 /  14 Florida 6 at  27 /  25 Auburn 17 149  55.2% /  82.4%
2011/10/29  28 /  11 Georgia 24 vs  11 /  16 Florida 20 172  63.8% /  66.5%
2011/11/05  79 /  42 Vanderbilt 21 at  13 /  20 Florida 26 158  88.3% /  82.6%
2011/11/12  13 /  20 Florida 12 at  17 /  10 South Carolina 17 145  48.4% /  39.6%
2011/11/26  11 /  11 Florida St. 21 at  16 /  17 Florida 7 152  45.3% /  63.0%
2012/01/02  19 /  21 Ohio St. -- vs  18 /  18 Florida -- --  50.7% /  75.0%


Ohio State Buckeyes Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03 119 / 119 Akron 0 at   4 /   5 Ohio St. 42 151  99.4% /  99.5%
2011/09/10  75 /  86 Toledo 22 at   1 /   5 Ohio St. 27 169  97.6% /  96.7%
2011/09/17   3 /  14 Ohio St. 6 at  29 /  40 Miami-FL 24 142  75.7% /  85.3%
2011/09/24  75 /  70 Colorado 17 at   7 /  15 Ohio St. 37 146  93.2% /  91.4%
2011/10/01  25 /  34 Michigan St. 10 at   8 /  17 Ohio St. 7 156  76.1% /  69.0%
2011/10/08   9 /  19 Ohio St. 27 at  24 /  26 Nebraska 34 162  56.7% /  56.9%
2011/10/15   9 /  18 Ohio St. 17 at  36 /  33 Illinois 7 147  64.0% /  27.9%
2011/10/29   7 /   6 Wisconsin 29 at   9 /  12 Ohio St. 33 159  52.9% /  23.6%
2011/11/05  99 / 102 Indiana 20 at   8 /  11 Ohio St. 34 149  95.1% /  92.9%
2011/11/12   8 /  16 Ohio St. 23 at  78 /  74 Purdue 26 178  85.6% /  85.8%
2011/11/19  26 /  31 Penn State 20 at  11 /  18 Ohio St. 14 138  61.0% /  65.8%
2011/11/26  17 /  23 Ohio St. 34 at  12 /  15 Michigan 40 146  45.2% /  46.6%
2012/01/02  19 /  21 Ohio St. -- vs  18 /  18 Florida -- --  49.3% /  25.0%


8. Capital One Bowl

Monday, January 2 at 1:00 PM

Nebraska Cornhuskers (8 - 3; 5 - 3 Big Ten)
vs
South Carolina Gamecocks (9 - 2; 6 - 2 SEC)
GUGS Score: 63.2

Justin

Nebraska Cornhuskers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.736 22 0.591 26 21.4 37 14.2 12 168.7 43
South Carolina Gamecocks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.780 15 0.622 11 25.0 17 15.0 20 159.5 103

Compared to the previous game the teams are slightly better and the pace should yield slightly more offense. These are two very good teams that have mostly flown under the radar this year. USC (East) had the misfortune of playing Arkansas and Auburn from the SEC West, and came away with two losses. If it weren't for the Auburn loss, USC would have been the team to lose to LSU in the SEC title game. Nebraska's only bad loss was to Northwestern, a team known for punching above their weight; their losses to Wisconsin and Michigan are completely understandable. Both teams have great defenses -- in the top 20 -- but the Gamecocks have an offense that yields 3.6 PPH more than Nebraska's. One potential pitfall for the Gamecocks is their slow pace doesn't lend itself well to comebacks, so they'll need to get a good jump on Nebraska if they want to have a chance. Right now TFG gives the slight edge to the USC offense over the Cornhusker defense. South Carolina 32, Nebraska 29 (56.0%); 164 plays.

Eddie

Nebraska Cornhuskers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.811 25 0.532 43 19.3 30 12.5 32 166.8 61
South Carolina Gamecocks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.931 10 0.544 22 20.9 21 10.0 5 157.9 119

The Cornhuskers and Gamecocks are surprisingly well matched. Offensively, the only difference between these two teams is their base efficiency. South Carolina's 30.3 +/- 18.8 PPH offense is only marginally more efficient than Nebraska's 28.7 +/- 18.8 PPH. On the other side of the ball, the Huskers are more consistent on defense at 6.8 +/- 11.3 PPH, whereas the Gamecocks are more efficient at 3.2 +/- 13.6 PPH. Slower tempos keep this game closer than the efficiencies dictate, but RBA thinks that Nebraska should be able to exploit South Carolina's defensive inconsistency. RBA says that South Carolina is a 66.6% favorite, but the 25-24 score suggests that it will be tight throughout.


Nebraska Cornhuskers Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/10  70 /  73 Fresno St. 29 at  14 /  13 Nebraska 42 166  90.0% /  89.1%
2011/09/17  60 /  51 Washington 38 at  17 /  15 Nebraska 51 177  82.7% /  79.9%
2011/09/24  18 /  13 Nebraska 38 at 104 /  92 Wyoming 14 161  89.2% /  92.0%
2011/10/01  17 /  26 Nebraska 17 at   7 /   2 Wisconsin 48 159  26.1% /  33.8%
2011/10/08   9 /  19 Ohio St. 27 at  24 /  26 Nebraska 34 162  43.3% /  43.1%
2011/10/22  18 /  23 Nebraska 41 at 100 / 112 Minnesota 14 160  87.7% /  89.2%
2011/10/29  10 /  20 Michigan St. 3 at  19 /  17 Nebraska 24 153  53.4% /  37.3%
2011/11/05  67 /  65 Northwestern 28 at  12 /  16 Nebraska 25 171  85.4% /  79.1%
2011/11/12  16 /  18 Nebraska 17 at  27 /  37 Penn State 14 180  52.1% /  65.5%
2011/11/19  17 /  25 Nebraska 17 at  16 /  21 Michigan 45 163  49.5% /  53.0%
2011/11/25  36 /  30 Iowa 7 at  23 /  25 Nebraska 20 169  59.3% /  61.9%
2012/01/02  15 /  10 South Carolina -- vs  22 /  25 Nebraska -- --  44.0% /  33.4%


South Carolina Gamecocks Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03  20 /  19 South Carolina 56 vs  74 /  81 East Carolina 37 180  81.8% /  84.1%
2011/09/10  19 /  19 South Carolina 45 at  21 /  21 Georgia 42 165  36.9% /  46.6%
2011/09/17  45 /  41 Navy 21 at  21 /  20 South Carolina 24 139  74.7% /  62.2%
2011/09/24  79 /  57 Vanderbilt 3 at  27 /  21 South Carolina 21 147  86.9% /  78.5%
2011/10/01  28 /  13 Auburn 16 at  18 /  18 South Carolina 13 170  63.1% /  56.0%
2011/10/08  70 /  57 Kentucky 3 at  27 /  15 South Carolina 54 175  84.3% /  70.3%
2011/10/15  18 /  11 South Carolina 14 at  45 /  36 Mississippi St. 12 163  60.8% /  56.9%
2011/10/29  17 /   9 South Carolina 14 at  45 /  35 Tennessee 3 151  57.9% /  65.8%
2011/11/05  17 /  13 South Carolina 28 at  22 /  14 Arkansas 44 159  49.8% /  58.2%
2011/11/12  13 /  20 Florida 12 at  17 /  10 South Carolina 17 145  51.6% /  60.4%
2011/11/26  32 /  32 Clemson 13 at  18 /   9 South Carolina 34 157  62.3% /  70.2%
2012/01/02  15 /  10 South Carolina -- vs  22 /  25 Nebraska -- --  56.0% /  66.6%


7. Discover Orange Bowl

Wednesday, January 4 at 8:30 PM

Clemson Tigers (9 - 3; 7 - 2 ACC)
vs
West Virginia Mountaineers (8 - 3; 5 - 2 Big East)
GUGS Score: 63.2

Eddie

Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.789 29 0.526 57 18.5 38 14.3 48 166.8 57
West Virginia Mountaineers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.734 34 0.535 38 19.5 28 14.2 47 166.1 70

If two teams play in a bowl game and nobody watches, do we miss the pick? The humans don't want to watch this game, and the computers can't figure out why. Neither team plays much defense, and the teams are respectable, even if they do play in the two most mocked conferences in college football. Clemon's defense is a little more consistent at 13.0 +/- 2.6 PPH, but West Virginia's is a little better against average competition at 10.3 +/- 8.0 PPH. Offensively, it's more of the same. Clemson isn't quite as explosive as West Virginia's 32.0 +/- 25.1 PPH, but they're more consistent at 22.5 +/- 8.0 PPH. RBA thinks that Clemson can pull off the victory, 31-24, with 56.0% confidence. This means that you should double down on the Mountaineers because RBA never picks Clemson correctly.

Justin

Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.678 28 0.584 32 22.2 32 16.5 33 171.9 26
West Virginia Mountaineers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.682 26 0.547 54 24.2 22 17.8 47 169.1 40

On paper this looks like it'll be a good game between the ACC champ and the Big East champ. TFG and RBA disagree about the winner, so GUGS sees this as a particularly interesting game. Neither team has a defense that rates in the top quarter of FBS, so we can expect a load of points. By all accounts, the computers predict this will be an interesting game. The problem is that the computers are almost certainly going to be wrong about this game. Given that each computer has picked a different team to win this one, I'm not sure how they can both be wrong, but if there's one way to tempt fate it's by putting a Big East team against an ACC team. The Tigers aren't a particularly great team, but for whatever reason they seemed to have Virginia Tech's number. The Mountaineers have a similar resume with wins over a number of mediocre teams and losses to (2) LSU (understandable), (46) Louisville (hrm), and (79) Syracuse (whoops). This game might not be exciting, but it will be unpredictable and have a lot of points. In the end this will be a toss-up, with TFG picking the Mountaineers out of a hat. West Virginia 35, Clemson 33 (50.6%); 170 plays.


Clemson Tigers Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03  68 /  76 Troy 19 at  34 /  38 Clemson 43 180  80.6% /  80.0%
2011/09/17  14 /  18 Auburn 24 at  26 /  29 Clemson 38 181  47.7% /  45.7%
2011/09/24  13 /  12 Florida St. 30 at  28 /  16 Clemson 35 166  49.2% /  28.3%
2011/10/01  23 /  10 Clemson 23 at  11 /  19 Virginia Tech 3 162  26.8% /  37.6%
2011/10/08  88 /  91 Boston College 14 at  13 /   9 Clemson 36 159  92.0% /  84.8%
2011/10/15  19 /   9 Clemson 56 at  55 /  62 Maryland 45 194  67.3% /  77.3%
2011/10/22  40 /  44 North Carolina 38 at  23 /   8 Clemson 59 181  73.6% /  67.0%
2011/10/29  21 /  10 Clemson 17 at  41 /  39 Georgia Tech 31 162  55.1% /  62.2%
2011/11/12  72 /  88 Wake Forest 28 at  24 /  14 Clemson 31 183  82.1% /  83.8%
2011/11/19  27 /  16 Clemson 13 at  62 /  65 North Carolina St. 37 173  72.0% /  72.6%
2011/11/26  32 /  32 Clemson 13 at  18 /   9 South Carolina 34 157  37.7% /  29.8%
2011/12/03   9 /  23 Virginia Tech 10 vs  35 /  29 Clemson 38 175  27.9% /  38.5%
2012/01/04  26 /  34 West Virginia -- vs  28 /  29 Clemson -- --  49.4% /  56.0%


West Virginia Mountaineers Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/04  93 /  95 Marshall 13 at  19 /  18 West Virginia 34 127  92.9% /  92.3%
2011/09/17  16 /  16 West Virginia 37 at  46 /  34 Maryland 31 192  60.4% /  35.6%
2011/09/24   5 /   7 LSU 47 at  21 /  26 West Virginia 21 188  35.6% /  64.7%
2011/10/01  90 /  89 Bowling Green 10 at  32 /  27 West Virginia 55 161  87.5% /  88.5%
2011/10/08  56 /  68 Connecticut 16 at  21 /  23 West Virginia 43 184  80.0% /  72.7%
2011/10/21  16 /  22 West Virginia 23 at  77 /  79 Syracuse 49 162  79.9% /  84.1%
2011/10/29  27 /  30 West Virginia 41 at  52 /  52 Rutgers 31 185  55.3% /  75.6%
2011/11/05  53 /  52 Louisville 38 at  28 /  31 West Virginia 35 165  71.3% /  68.7%
2011/11/12  30 /  33 West Virginia 24 at  34 /  31 Cincinnati 21 175  49.8% /  49.3%
2011/11/25  33 /  33 Pittsburgh 20 at  28 /  34 West Virginia 21 175  53.4% /  54.2%
2011/12/01  26 /  34 West Virginia 30 at  50 /  51 South Florida 27 180  62.2% /  55.3%
2012/01/04  26 /  34 West Virginia -- vs  28 /  29 Clemson -- --  50.6% /  44.0%


6. Champs Sports Bowl

Thursday, December 29 at 5:30 PM

Florida State Seminoles (7 - 4; 5 - 3 ACC)
vs
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8 - 4; 1 - 0 Independents)
GUGS Score: 69.4

Justin

Florida State Seminoles
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.807 10 0.553 51 25.0 19 14.1 10 157.8 111
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.766 17 0.620 14 22.3 31 13.9 8 168.6 44

Oddly enough GUGS has more respect for two teams with a combined eight losses than two teams with a combined six losses. The Seminoles have a not-horrible loss to Oklahoma, and three ACC losses by a total of 11 points. Notre Dame hasn't been a horrible team, but seems to have a weakness against Pac-12 teams (hello, USC and Stanford). These teams have nearly identical defenses -- only 0.2 PPH apart -- but differ more significantly on offense; the Seminoles have a 2.7 PPH advantage. Overall the Seminoles have about a field-goal-per-game advantage over Notre Dame, but this one will be close. Don't let the middling records fool you: there are two top-20 teams with excellent defenses and strong offenses. TFG just says that Florida State has a slight edge. Florida St. 31, Notre Dame 29 (56.0%); 163 plays.

Eddie

Florida State Seminoles
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.930 11 0.549 15 19.2 33 9.7 4 165.8 75
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.852 20 0.565 2 18.8 35 11.9 22 165.0 85

Overrated! CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP. Consider this: Notre Dame lost four games this year. They turned the ball over three times inside the South Florida 10 yard line before losing by three. Michigan mounted the comeback of the year to beat Notre Dame, seconds after the Irish "sealed" the game. Down 17-10 at the USC 1, Dayne Crist fumbled, leading to a USC scoop, score, and momentum swing that ultimately doomed the Irish. Hell, if the Irish could stop failing epically in opponents' territory, they very well could have been in a BCS game. (Horseshoes, hand grenades, etc.) Florida State was actually respectable, too, losses to Wake Forest and Virginia notwithstanding, of course. The Seminole offense is slightly above average at 25.4 +/- 12.5 PPH. This is roughly equivalent to the 25.8 +/- 13.0 PPH Irish offense. Defensively, the teams are closely matched, as well. The Seminoles have a slight advantage at 3.8 +/- 11.9 PPH over the Irish at 5.6 +/- 12.6 PPH. The big difference here is team strength, where Florida State boasts a 0.064 advantage. Based on strength and minor advantages on both sides of the ball, RBA picks Florida State, 31-20, with 58.8% confidence.


Florida State Seminoles Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03 109 / 105 LA-Monroe 0 at  17 /  17 Florida St. 34 147  96.6% /  94.2%
2011/09/17   6 /   5 Oklahoma 23 at  12 /  12 Florida St. 13 150  48.3% /  71.9%
2011/09/24  13 /  12 Florida St. 30 at  28 /  16 Clemson 35 166  50.8% /  71.7%
2011/10/08  16 /  14 Florida St. 30 at  82 /  86 Wake Forest 35 181  81.4% /  90.8%
2011/10/15  23 /  19 Florida St. 41 at  80 /  70 Duke 16 151  78.2% /  87.3%
2011/10/22  50 /  65 Maryland 16 at  21 /  17 Florida St. 41 178  79.7% /  72.5%
2011/10/29  57 /  63 North Carolina St. 0 at  16 /  15 Florida St. 34 156  82.3% /  77.0%
2011/11/03  11 /  10 Florida St. 38 at  84 /  85 Boston College 7 139  86.0% /  88.9%
2011/11/12  25 /  22 Miami-FL 19 at  10 /  11 Florida St. 23 152  67.2% /  82.1%
2011/11/19  66 /  67 Virginia 14 at  10 /  14 Florida St. 13 154  84.3% /  87.0%
2011/11/26  11 /  11 Florida St. 21 at  16 /  17 Florida 7 152  54.7% /  37.0%
2011/12/29  17 /  20 Notre Dame -- vs  10 /  11 Florida St. -- --  56.0% /  58.8%


Notre Dame Fighting Irish Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03  49 /  41 South Florida 23 at  21 /  26 Notre Dame 20 182  78.6% /  58.6%
2011/09/10  28 /  30 Notre Dame 31 at  39 /  45 Michigan 35 151  45.1% /  65.3%
2011/09/17  25 /  45 Michigan St. 13 at  31 /  27 Notre Dame 31 164  57.3% /  53.4%
2011/09/24  24 /  23 Notre Dame 15 at  30 /  34 Pittsburgh 12 168  45.4% /  44.4%
2011/10/01  19 /  25 Notre Dame 38 at  82 /  92 Purdue 10 178  78.9% /  82.7%
2011/10/08  50 /  47 Air Force 33 at  14 /  16 Notre Dame 59 181  81.8% /  57.2%
2011/10/22  30 /  19 USC 31 at  17 /  21 Notre Dame 17 156  72.5% /  59.0%
2011/10/29  56 /  66 Navy 14 at  20 /  21 Notre Dame 56 146  81.3% /  74.2%
2011/11/05  14 /  15 Notre Dame 24 at  77 /  91 Wake Forest 17 146  82.3% /  79.8%
2011/11/12  14 /  17 Notre Dame 45 vs  71 / 100 Maryland 21 176  82.3% /  85.8%
2011/11/19  84 /  83 Boston College 14 at  14 /  15 Notre Dame 16 172  87.2% /  87.3%
2011/11/26  15 /  21 Notre Dame 14 at   7 /   7 Stanford 28 174  34.2% /  26.4%
2011/12/29  17 /  20 Notre Dame -- vs  10 /  11 Florida St. -- --  44.0% /  41.2%


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