2011 - 2012 Bowl Previews: Part VI

Today is Part VI of our 2011 - 2012 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• TicketCity Bowl
  Houston Cougars vs Penn State Nittany Lions
• Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl
  Florida Gators vs Ohio State Buckeyes
• Capital One Bowl
  Nebraska Cornhuskers vs South Carolina Gamecocks
• Discover Orange Bowl
  Clemson Tigers vs West Virginia Mountaineers
• Champs Sports Bowl
  Florida State Seminoles vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Full previews after the jump ....

10. TicketCity Bowl

Monday, January 2 at 12:00 PM

Houston Cougars (11 - 1; 8 - 1 Conference-USA)
vs
Penn State Nittany Lions (8 - 3; 6 - 2 Big Ten)

GUGS Score: 59.0

Justin

Houston Cougars
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.704	24	0.359	108	26.0	13	18.4	55	181.0	4

Penn State Nittany Lions
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.680	27	0.624	10	16.4	89	12.2	3	167.8	47

In the grand scheme of things, it's best that Houston lost their final game of the year. They weren't a particularly good undefeated non-BCS team, and it's likely that had they made it into a big bowl game we would have seen shades of 2007 Hawaii all over again. That said, the Cougars are a good team with a top-tier offense and a decent defense; Penn State, on the other hand, matches the third-best defense in FBS with Rice's offense. That might not be a fatal blow, though, as even the Owls managed to hang 34 points on Houston. Houston, however, certainly won't put up 73 against the Nittany Lion defense. Similar to last year's TCU/Wisconsin game, this will be a referendum on how TFG handles two top teams with very different resumes. TFG says that the Cougar offense will be strong enough to power past the Nittany Lion defense, and Penn State's inept offense won't be strong enough to put up enough points. Houston 33, Penn State 30 (52.8%); 174 plays.

Eddie

Houston Cougars
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.789	28	0.472	84	22.4	15	15.3	57	175.5	4

Penn State Nittany Lions
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.712	38	0.543	26	13.2	90	10.2	6	163.4	98

As Justin suggests, this game pits two contrasting styles, but RBA doesn't give Penn State quite the credit TFG does. The Penn State defense is good but not great at 2.4 +/- 15.6 PPH. That's good for a lot of teams, and it matches up quite well against a Houston 39.2 +/- 33.7 PPH offense known to disappear against high caliber competition. It's difficult to make that claim too strongly, since Houston has played only one team in the RBA top 40 this year (#15 Southern Miss, a 49-28 loss). The other side of the ball should be a comedy of errors, with Penn State's anemic 20.5 +/- 14.7 PPH offense facing off against the generous 11.2 +/- 8.3 PPH Houston defense. In the end, RBA thinks that Penn State simply lacks the firepower to keep up with Houston, ending with a 28-20 Cougar victory with 59.1% confidence.

Houston Cougars Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	78	/  66	UCLA	34	at	63	/  67	Houston	38	170	74.5%	/  50.7%
2011/09/10	65	/  63	Houston	48	at	109	/ 111	North Texas	23	186	73.3%	/  68.4%
2011/09/17	63	/  67	Houston	35	at	77	/  79	LA Tech	34	205	51.2%	/  64.5%
2011/09/29	63	/  63	Houston	49	at	96	/  97	UTEP	42	178	62.1%	/  75.5%
2011/10/08	80	/  93	East Carolina	3	at	66	/  56	Houston	56	182	67.1%	/  56.0%
2011/10/22	94	/  99	Marshall	28	at	52	/  45	Houston	63	169	84.8%	/  70.9%
2011/10/27	98	/  98	Rice	34	at	46	/  47	Houston	73	179	87.2%	/  81.7%
2011/11/05	40	/  48	Houston	56	at	112	/ 119	UAB	13	176	89.2%	/  84.0%
2011/11/10	35	/  50	Houston	73	at	114	/ 113	Tulane	17	187	91.3%	/  90.1%
2011/11/19	65	/  72	SMU	7	at	32	/  45	Houston	37	167	68.8%	/  61.5%
2011/11/25	27	/  24	Houston	48	at	30	/  50	Tulsa	16	190	53.1%	/  47.1%
2011/12/03	43	/  15	Southern Miss.	49	at	23	/  28	Houston	28	205	63.2%	/  52.0%
2012/01/02	27	/  38	Penn State	--	vs	24	/  28	Houston	--	--	52.8%	/  59.1%

Penn State Nittany Lions Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	2	/   3	Alabama	27	at	33	/  37	Penn State	11	164	20.5%	/  10.6%
2011/09/17	30	/  38	Penn State	14	at	54	/  61	Temple	10	155	53.7%	/  66.5%
2011/09/24	117	/ 116	Eastern Michigan	6	at	29	/  37	Penn State	34	156	97.6%	/  96.7%
2011/10/01	24	/  39	Penn State	16	at	97	/  98	Indiana	10	193	85.0%	/  84.2%
2011/10/08	25	/  17	Iowa	3	at	30	/  40	Penn State	13	154	56.8%	/  47.8%
2011/10/15	73	/  78	Purdue	18	at	24	/  35	Penn State	23	161	86.9%	/  83.3%
2011/10/22	26	/  40	Penn State	34	at	69	/  86	Northwestern	24	165	68.3%	/  75.6%
2011/10/29	43	/  46	Illinois	7	at	25	/  36	Penn State	10	172	74.0%	/  51.7%
2011/11/12	16	/  18	Nebraska	17	at	27	/  37	Penn State	14	180	47.9%	/  34.5%
2011/11/19	26	/  31	Penn State	20	at	11	/  18	Ohio St.	14	138	39.0%	/  34.2%
2011/11/26	22	/  37	Penn State	7	at	6	/   4	Wisconsin	45	155	29.3%	/  20.3%
2012/01/02	27	/  38	Penn State	--	vs	24	/  28	Houston	--	--	47.2%	/  40.9%

9. Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl

Monday, January 2 at 1:00 PM

Florida Gators (5 - 6; 3 - 5 SEC)
vs
Ohio State Buckeyes (6 - 6; 3 - 5 Big Ten)

GUGS Score: 60.9

Eddie

Florida Gators
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.885	18	0.556	8	20.4	24	7.9	3	161.3	109

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.841	21	0.531	46	18.6	37	12.0	25	159.1	116

In spite of their combined 12 losses, RBA considers both these teams to be top 25 caliber. Contrasting with my Houston-Penn State bowl preview, Ohio State's 4.2 +/- 15.7 PPH defense is only slightly worse than the Nittany Lions', but their offense is considerably better at 25.2 +/- 13.1 PPH. As ugly as it has been for the Gators, their offense is only marginally worse than the Cougars at 35.4 +/- 29.9 PPH. They only look inept because (a) they play much slower and (b) injuries to the quarterback against top-flight competition. The Gators' big problem is on defense, where their 0.0 +/- 28.2 PPH efficiency suggest that they are prone to really bad streaks against good teams. As sad as Florida's defense has become, their offense should be able to move the ball against the Buckeyes. In fact, RBA is so confident that Florida is given a 75.0% chance of beating Ohio State, 28-20.

Justin

Florida Gators
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.756	18	0.656	4	22.8	27	14.5	16	160.4	99

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.750	19	0.563	46	23.0	26	14.8	18	158.6	107

"How," you might ask, "can a bowl game with two teams at or below 0.500 be one of the ten best bowl games this year? This is not 2007." Very true. However, both teams are very good, this is going to be close. The Gators are having a down year, but their losses are to (1) Alabama, (2) LSU, (10) Florida State, (15) South Carolina, (20) Georgia, and (40) Auburn. Of those, only the Auburn loss is particularly egregious. On top of that -- ignoring Alabama and LSU -- the Gators never surrendered more than 14.0 PPH. The Buckeyes' resume is a bit more damaging, not necessarily because any of the losses are bad per se -- (12) Michigan, (13) Michigan State, (22) Nebraska, (27) Penn State, and (29) Miami are all good teams -- it's just that there are so many of them. Both teams are slow with strong defenses, so this one will likely be a defensive slog in search of a few moments of excitement. Expect this one to come down to a late drive or field goal. TFG says this one is a coin toss, with the slight edge going to Florida. In reality, this one's too close to call. Florida 30, Ohio St. 29 (50.7%); 159 plays.

Florida Gators Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	113	/ 111	FL-Atlantic	3	at	11	/  16	Florida	41	149	97.5%	/  97.7%
2011/09/10	95	/  94	UAB	0	at	8	/  14	Florida	39	152	96.5%	/  93.1%
2011/09/17	38	/  25	Tennessee	23	at	4	/  11	Florida	33	167	88.6%	/  75.4%
2011/09/24	6	/   9	Florida	48	at	53	/  50	Kentucky	10	170	81.4%	/  85.3%
2011/10/01	1	/   1	Alabama	38	at	3	/  11	Florida	10	146	41.5%	/  29.5%
2011/10/08	7	/  13	Florida	11	at	3	/   3	LSU	41	141	33.4%	/  45.2%
2011/10/15	8	/  14	Florida	6	at	27	/  25	Auburn	17	149	55.2%	/  82.4%
2011/10/29	28	/  11	Georgia	24	vs	11	/  16	Florida	20	172	63.8%	/  66.5%
2011/11/05	79	/  42	Vanderbilt	21	at	13	/  20	Florida	26	158	88.3%	/  82.6%
2011/11/12	13	/  20	Florida	12	at	17	/  10	South Carolina	17	145	48.4%	/  39.6%
2011/11/26	11	/  11	Florida St.	21	at	16	/  17	Florida	7	152	45.3%	/  63.0%
2012/01/02	19	/  21	Ohio St.	--	vs	18	/  18	Florida	--	--	50.7%	/  75.0%

Ohio State Buckeyes Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	119	/ 119	Akron	0	at	4	/   5	Ohio St.	42	151	99.4%	/  99.5%
2011/09/10	75	/  86	Toledo	22	at	1	/   5	Ohio St.	27	169	97.6%	/  96.7%
2011/09/17	3	/  14	Ohio St.	6	at	29	/  40	Miami-FL	24	142	75.7%	/  85.3%
2011/09/24	75	/  70	Colorado	17	at	7	/  15	Ohio St.	37	146	93.2%	/  91.4%
2011/10/01	25	/  34	Michigan St.	10	at	8	/  17	Ohio St.	7	156	76.1%	/  69.0%
2011/10/08	9	/  19	Ohio St.	27	at	24	/  26	Nebraska	34	162	56.7%	/  56.9%
2011/10/15	9	/  18	Ohio St.	17	at	36	/  33	Illinois	7	147	64.0%	/  27.9%
2011/10/29	7	/   6	Wisconsin	29	at	9	/  12	Ohio St.	33	159	52.9%	/  23.6%
2011/11/05	99	/ 102	Indiana	20	at	8	/  11	Ohio St.	34	149	95.1%	/  92.9%
2011/11/12	8	/  16	Ohio St.	23	at	78	/  74	Purdue	26	178	85.6%	/  85.8%
2011/11/19	26	/  31	Penn State	20	at	11	/  18	Ohio St.	14	138	61.0%	/  65.8%
2011/11/26	17	/  23	Ohio St.	34	at	12	/  15	Michigan	40	146	45.2%	/  46.6%
2012/01/02	19	/  21	Ohio St.	--	vs	18	/  18	Florida	--	--	49.3%	/  25.0%

8. Capital One Bowl

Monday, January 2 at 1:00 PM

Nebraska Cornhuskers (8 - 3; 5 - 3 Big Ten)
vs
South Carolina Gamecocks (9 - 2; 6 - 2 SEC)

GUGS Score: 63.2

Justin

Nebraska Cornhuskers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.736	22	0.591	26	21.4	37	14.2	12	168.7	43

South Carolina Gamecocks
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.780	15	0.622	11	25.0	17	15.0	20	159.5	103

Compared to the previous game the teams are slightly better and the pace should yield slightly more offense. These are two very good teams that have mostly flown under the radar this year. USC (East) had the misfortune of playing Arkansas and Auburn from the SEC West, and came away with two losses. If it weren't for the Auburn loss, USC would have been the team to lose to LSU in the SEC title game. Nebraska's only bad loss was to Northwestern, a team known for punching above their weight; their losses to Wisconsin and Michigan are completely understandable. Both teams have great defenses -- in the top 20 -- but the Gamecocks have an offense that yields 3.6 PPH more than Nebraska's. One potential pitfall for the Gamecocks is their slow pace doesn't lend itself well to comebacks, so they'll need to get a good jump on Nebraska if they want to have a chance. Right now TFG gives the slight edge to the USC offense over the Cornhusker defense. South Carolina 32, Nebraska 29 (56.0%); 164 plays.

Eddie

Nebraska Cornhuskers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.811	25	0.532	43	19.3	30	12.5	32	166.8	61

South Carolina Gamecocks
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.931	10	0.544	22	20.9	21	10.0	5	157.9	119

The Cornhuskers and Gamecocks are surprisingly well matched. Offensively, the only difference between these two teams is their base efficiency. South Carolina's 30.3 +/- 18.8 PPH offense is only marginally more efficient than Nebraska's 28.7 +/- 18.8 PPH. On the other side of the ball, the Huskers are more consistent on defense at 6.8 +/- 11.3 PPH, whereas the Gamecocks are more efficient at 3.2 +/- 13.6 PPH. Slower tempos keep this game closer than the efficiencies dictate, but RBA thinks that Nebraska should be able to exploit South Carolina's defensive inconsistency. RBA says that South Carolina is a 66.6% favorite, but the 25-24 score suggests that it will be tight throughout.

Nebraska Cornhuskers Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	70	/  73	Fresno St.	29	at	14	/  13	Nebraska	42	166	90.0%	/  89.1%
2011/09/17	60	/  51	Washington	38	at	17	/  15	Nebraska	51	177	82.7%	/  79.9%
2011/09/24	18	/  13	Nebraska	38	at	104	/  92	Wyoming	14	161	89.2%	/  92.0%
2011/10/01	17	/  26	Nebraska	17	at	7	/   2	Wisconsin	48	159	26.1%	/  33.8%
2011/10/08	9	/  19	Ohio St.	27	at	24	/  26	Nebraska	34	162	43.3%	/  43.1%
2011/10/22	18	/  23	Nebraska	41	at	100	/ 112	Minnesota	14	160	87.7%	/  89.2%
2011/10/29	10	/  20	Michigan St.	3	at	19	/  17	Nebraska	24	153	53.4%	/  37.3%
2011/11/05	67	/  65	Northwestern	28	at	12	/  16	Nebraska	25	171	85.4%	/  79.1%
2011/11/12	16	/  18	Nebraska	17	at	27	/  37	Penn State	14	180	52.1%	/  65.5%
2011/11/19	17	/  25	Nebraska	17	at	16	/  21	Michigan	45	163	49.5%	/  53.0%
2011/11/25	36	/  30	Iowa	7	at	23	/  25	Nebraska	20	169	59.3%	/  61.9%
2012/01/02	15	/  10	South Carolina	--	vs	22	/  25	Nebraska	--	--	44.0%	/  33.4%

South Carolina Gamecocks Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	20	/  19	South Carolina	56	vs	74	/  81	East Carolina	37	180	81.8%	/  84.1%
2011/09/10	19	/  19	South Carolina	45	at	21	/  21	Georgia	42	165	36.9%	/  46.6%
2011/09/17	45	/  41	Navy	21	at	21	/  20	South Carolina	24	139	74.7%	/  62.2%
2011/09/24	79	/  57	Vanderbilt	3	at	27	/  21	South Carolina	21	147	86.9%	/  78.5%
2011/10/01	28	/  13	Auburn	16	at	18	/  18	South Carolina	13	170	63.1%	/  56.0%
2011/10/08	70	/  57	Kentucky	3	at	27	/  15	South Carolina	54	175	84.3%	/  70.3%
2011/10/15	18	/  11	South Carolina	14	at	45	/  36	Mississippi St.	12	163	60.8%	/  56.9%
2011/10/29	17	/   9	South Carolina	14	at	45	/  35	Tennessee	3	151	57.9%	/  65.8%
2011/11/05	17	/  13	South Carolina	28	at	22	/  14	Arkansas	44	159	49.8%	/  58.2%
2011/11/12	13	/  20	Florida	12	at	17	/  10	South Carolina	17	145	51.6%	/  60.4%
2011/11/26	32	/  32	Clemson	13	at	18	/   9	South Carolina	34	157	62.3%	/  70.2%
2012/01/02	15	/  10	South Carolina	--	vs	22	/  25	Nebraska	--	--	56.0%	/  66.6%

7. Discover Orange Bowl

Wednesday, January 4 at 8:30 PM

Clemson Tigers (9 - 3; 7 - 2 ACC)
vs
West Virginia Mountaineers (8 - 3; 5 - 2 Big East)

GUGS Score: 63.2

Eddie

Clemson Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.789	29	0.526	57	18.5	38	14.3	48	166.8	57

West Virginia Mountaineers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.734	34	0.535	38	19.5	28	14.2	47	166.1	70

If two teams play in a bowl game and nobody watches, do we miss the pick? The humans don't want to watch this game, and the computers can't figure out why. Neither team plays much defense, and the teams are respectable, even if they do play in the two most mocked conferences in college football. Clemon's defense is a little more consistent at 13.0 +/- 2.6 PPH, but West Virginia's is a little better against average competition at 10.3 +/- 8.0 PPH. Offensively, it's more of the same. Clemson isn't quite as explosive as West Virginia's 32.0 +/- 25.1 PPH, but they're more consistent at 22.5 +/- 8.0 PPH. RBA thinks that Clemson can pull off the victory, 31-24, with 56.0% confidence. This means that you should double down on the Mountaineers because RBA never picks Clemson correctly.

Justin

Clemson Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.678	28	0.584	32	22.2	32	16.5	33	171.9	26

West Virginia Mountaineers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.682	26	0.547	54	24.2	22	17.8	47	169.1	40

On paper this looks like it'll be a good game between the ACC champ and the Big East champ. TFG and RBA disagree about the winner, so GUGS sees this as a particularly interesting game. Neither team has a defense that rates in the top quarter of FBS, so we can expect a load of points. By all accounts, the computers predict this will be an interesting game. The problem is that the computers are almost certainly going to be wrong about this game. Given that each computer has picked a different team to win this one, I'm not sure how they can both be wrong, but if there's one way to tempt fate it's by putting a Big East team against an ACC team. The Tigers aren't a particularly great team, but for whatever reason they seemed to have Virginia Tech's number. The Mountaineers have a similar resume with wins over a number of mediocre teams and losses to (2) LSU (understandable), (46) Louisville (hrm), and (79) Syracuse (whoops). This game might not be exciting, but it will be unpredictable and have a lot of points. In the end this will be a toss-up, with TFG picking the Mountaineers out of a hat. West Virginia 35, Clemson 33 (50.6%); 170 plays.

Clemson Tigers Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	68	/  76	Troy	19	at	34	/  38	Clemson	43	180	80.6%	/  80.0%
2011/09/17	14	/  18	Auburn	24	at	26	/  29	Clemson	38	181	47.7%	/  45.7%
2011/09/24	13	/  12	Florida St.	30	at	28	/  16	Clemson	35	166	49.2%	/  28.3%
2011/10/01	23	/  10	Clemson	23	at	11	/  19	Virginia Tech	3	162	26.8%	/  37.6%
2011/10/08	88	/  91	Boston College	14	at	13	/   9	Clemson	36	159	92.0%	/  84.8%
2011/10/15	19	/   9	Clemson	56	at	55	/  62	Maryland	45	194	67.3%	/  77.3%
2011/10/22	40	/  44	North Carolina	38	at	23	/   8	Clemson	59	181	73.6%	/  67.0%
2011/10/29	21	/  10	Clemson	17	at	41	/  39	Georgia Tech	31	162	55.1%	/  62.2%
2011/11/12	72	/  88	Wake Forest	28	at	24	/  14	Clemson	31	183	82.1%	/  83.8%
2011/11/19	27	/  16	Clemson	13	at	62	/  65	North Carolina St.	37	173	72.0%	/  72.6%
2011/11/26	32	/  32	Clemson	13	at	18	/   9	South Carolina	34	157	37.7%	/  29.8%
2011/12/03	9	/  23	Virginia Tech	10	vs	35	/  29	Clemson	38	175	27.9%	/  38.5%
2012/01/04	26	/  34	West Virginia	--	vs	28	/  29	Clemson	--	--	49.4%	/  56.0%

West Virginia Mountaineers Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/04	93	/  95	Marshall	13	at	19	/  18	West Virginia	34	127	92.9%	/  92.3%
2011/09/17	16	/  16	West Virginia	37	at	46	/  34	Maryland	31	192	60.4%	/  35.6%
2011/09/24	5	/   7	LSU	47	at	21	/  26	West Virginia	21	188	35.6%	/  64.7%
2011/10/01	90	/  89	Bowling Green	10	at	32	/  27	West Virginia	55	161	87.5%	/  88.5%
2011/10/08	56	/  68	Connecticut	16	at	21	/  23	West Virginia	43	184	80.0%	/  72.7%
2011/10/21	16	/  22	West Virginia	23	at	77	/  79	Syracuse	49	162	79.9%	/  84.1%
2011/10/29	27	/  30	West Virginia	41	at	52	/  52	Rutgers	31	185	55.3%	/  75.6%
2011/11/05	53	/  52	Louisville	38	at	28	/  31	West Virginia	35	165	71.3%	/  68.7%
2011/11/12	30	/  33	West Virginia	24	at	34	/  31	Cincinnati	21	175	49.8%	/  49.3%
2011/11/25	33	/  33	Pittsburgh	20	at	28	/  34	West Virginia	21	175	53.4%	/  54.2%
2011/12/01	26	/  34	West Virginia	30	at	50	/  51	South Florida	27	180	62.2%	/  55.3%
2012/01/04	26	/  34	West Virginia	--	vs	28	/  29	Clemson	--	--	50.6%	/  44.0%

6. Champs Sports Bowl

Thursday, December 29 at 5:30 PM

Florida State Seminoles (7 - 4; 5 - 3 ACC)
vs
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8 - 4; 1 - 0 Independents)

GUGS Score: 69.4

Justin

Florida State Seminoles
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.807	10	0.553	51	25.0	19	14.1	10	157.8	111

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.766	17	0.620	14	22.3	31	13.9	8	168.6	44

Oddly enough GUGS has more respect for two teams with a combined eight losses than two teams with a combined six losses. The Seminoles have a not-horrible loss to Oklahoma, and three ACC losses by a total of 11 points. Notre Dame hasn't been a horrible team, but seems to have a weakness against Pac-12 teams (hello, USC and Stanford). These teams have nearly identical defenses -- only 0.2 PPH apart -- but differ more significantly on offense; the Seminoles have a 2.7 PPH advantage. Overall the Seminoles have about a field-goal-per-game advantage over Notre Dame, but this one will be close. Don't let the middling records fool you: there are two top-20 teams with excellent defenses and strong offenses. TFG just says that Florida State has a slight edge. Florida St. 31, Notre Dame 29 (56.0%); 163 plays.

Eddie

Florida State Seminoles
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.930	11	0.549	15	19.2	33	9.7	4	165.8	75

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.852	20	0.565	2	18.8	35	11.9	22	165.0	85

Overrated! CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP. Consider this: Notre Dame lost four games this year. They turned the ball over three times inside the South Florida 10 yard line before losing by three. Michigan mounted the comeback of the year to beat Notre Dame, seconds after the Irish "sealed" the game. Down 17-10 at the USC 1, Dayne Crist fumbled, leading to a USC scoop, score, and momentum swing that ultimately doomed the Irish. Hell, if the Irish could stop failing epically in opponents' territory, they very well could have been in a BCS game. (Horseshoes, hand grenades, etc.) Florida State was actually respectable, too, losses to Wake Forest and Virginia notwithstanding, of course. The Seminole offense is slightly above average at 25.4 +/- 12.5 PPH. This is roughly equivalent to the 25.8 +/- 13.0 PPH Irish offense. Defensively, the teams are closely matched, as well. The Seminoles have a slight advantage at 3.8 +/- 11.9 PPH over the Irish at 5.6 +/- 12.6 PPH. The big difference here is team strength, where Florida State boasts a 0.064 advantage. Based on strength and minor advantages on both sides of the ball, RBA picks Florida State, 31-20, with 58.8% confidence.

Florida State Seminoles Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	109	/ 105	LA-Monroe	0	at	17	/  17	Florida St.	34	147	96.6%	/  94.2%
2011/09/17	6	/   5	Oklahoma	23	at	12	/  12	Florida St.	13	150	48.3%	/  71.9%
2011/09/24	13	/  12	Florida St.	30	at	28	/  16	Clemson	35	166	50.8%	/  71.7%
2011/10/08	16	/  14	Florida St.	30	at	82	/  86	Wake Forest	35	181	81.4%	/  90.8%
2011/10/15	23	/  19	Florida St.	41	at	80	/  70	Duke	16	151	78.2%	/  87.3%
2011/10/22	50	/  65	Maryland	16	at	21	/  17	Florida St.	41	178	79.7%	/  72.5%
2011/10/29	57	/  63	North Carolina St.	0	at	16	/  15	Florida St.	34	156	82.3%	/  77.0%
2011/11/03	11	/  10	Florida St.	38	at	84	/  85	Boston College	7	139	86.0%	/  88.9%
2011/11/12	25	/  22	Miami-FL	19	at	10	/  11	Florida St.	23	152	67.2%	/  82.1%
2011/11/19	66	/  67	Virginia	14	at	10	/  14	Florida St.	13	154	84.3%	/  87.0%
2011/11/26	11	/  11	Florida St.	21	at	16	/  17	Florida	7	152	54.7%	/  37.0%
2011/12/29	17	/  20	Notre Dame	--	vs	10	/  11	Florida St.	--	--	56.0%	/  58.8%

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	49	/  41	South Florida	23	at	21	/  26	Notre Dame	20	182	78.6%	/  58.6%
2011/09/10	28	/  30	Notre Dame	31	at	39	/  45	Michigan	35	151	45.1%	/  65.3%
2011/09/17	25	/  45	Michigan St.	13	at	31	/  27	Notre Dame	31	164	57.3%	/  53.4%
2011/09/24	24	/  23	Notre Dame	15	at	30	/  34	Pittsburgh	12	168	45.4%	/  44.4%
2011/10/01	19	/  25	Notre Dame	38	at	82	/  92	Purdue	10	178	78.9%	/  82.7%
2011/10/08	50	/  47	Air Force	33	at	14	/  16	Notre Dame	59	181	81.8%	/  57.2%
2011/10/22	30	/  19	USC	31	at	17	/  21	Notre Dame	17	156	72.5%	/  59.0%
2011/10/29	56	/  66	Navy	14	at	20	/  21	Notre Dame	56	146	81.3%	/  74.2%
2011/11/05	14	/  15	Notre Dame	24	at	77	/  91	Wake Forest	17	146	82.3%	/  79.8%
2011/11/12	14	/  17	Notre Dame	45	vs	71	/ 100	Maryland	21	176	82.3%	/  85.8%
2011/11/19	84	/  83	Boston College	14	at	14	/  15	Notre Dame	16	172	87.2%	/  87.3%
2011/11/26	15	/  21	Notre Dame	14	at	7	/   7	Stanford	28	174	34.2%	/  26.4%
2011/12/29	17	/  20	Notre Dame	--	vs	10	/  11	Florida St.	--	--	44.0%	/  41.2%

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