Monday, December 5, 2011

Week 15: Top 25 -- TFG

With just the annual Army/Navy game next week to close out the season, here are the final regular season standings for 2011-2012.


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.963 0.621 13 33.5 2 9.1 1 152.2 120
2 -- LSU 0.946 0.656 5 33.4 3 10.6 2 156.1 115
3 +1 Boise St. 0.900 0.426 77 30.6 5 12.7 5 164.7 70
4 -1 Wisconsin 0.883 0.535 57 35.0 1 15.6 26 157.9 110
5 +1 Stanford 0.873 0.552 53 30.8 4 14.3 13 162.5 88
6 +1 Oregon 0.861 0.598 22 26.9 10 13.0 6 185.4 1
7 +1 TCU 0.856 0.408 88 29.6 7 14.5 15 162.0 91
8 -3 Oklahoma 0.847 0.594 25 25.1 16 12.7 4 178.7 7
9 +3 Oklahoma St. 0.826 0.559 47 28.4 9 15.2 22 180.4 5
10 -- Florida St. 0.807 0.553 51 25.0 19 14.1 10 157.8 111
11 -- Arkansas 0.804 0.634 7 30.3 6 17.2 38 169.5 38
12 +1 Michigan 0.798 0.567 45 28.7 8 16.6 34 160.4 100
13 +2 Michigan St. 0.798 0.597 23 23.7 24 13.7 7 163.8 79
14 -- USC 0.795 0.584 31 25.6 14 14.9 19 168.2 46
15 +1 South Carolina 0.780 0.622 11 25.0 17 15.0 20 159.5 103
16 -7 Virginia Tech 0.779 0.515 64 23.3 25 14.1 9 158.8 106
17 +1 Notre Dame 0.766 0.620 14 22.3 31 13.9 8 168.6 44
18 +1 Florida 0.756 0.656 4 22.8 27 14.5 16 160.4 99
19 +1 Ohio St. 0.750 0.563 46 23.0 26 14.8 18 158.6 107
20 -3 Georgia 0.750 0.605 20 25.2 15 16.2 29 162.9 85
21 -- Texas A&M 0.745 0.596 24 22.4 29 14.6 17 183.7 2
22 -- Nebraska 0.736 0.591 26 21.4 37 14.2 12 168.7 43
23 +2 Missouri 0.706 0.569 44 20.6 48 14.5 14 170.5 31
24 -1 Houston 0.704 0.359 108 26.0 13 18.4 55 181.0 4
25 -1 Texas 0.686 0.569 43 21.3 41 15.6 25 161.9 93
Rankings through games of 2011-12-04

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.

Alabama and LSU reassert their stranglehold on the top two spots. Boise State is still out of contention thanks to being a 1-loss non-BCS team, the Badgers gave up 39 to Michigan State (the #24 offense in FBS), Stanford never had a shot after losing to Oregon, and Oklahoma State is a good team but just not on the same level as LSU or Alabama. And no, it has nothing to do with what conference they play in. TFG says that if the Cowboys and Tigers met on a neutral field, the Cowboys would have at best about a 1-in-5 shot of winning. I enjoy Matt Hinton's take on Alabama and LSU:
"If Alabama's defense is a boa constrictor, slowly sucking the life out of opposing offenses, LSU's is more like a goon that throws the offense into a burlap sack and starts beating it with a stick. It is not a subtle business. But it is very, very effective."
What's not widely acknowledged is that these teams have extremely efficient offenses, too. Take Arkansas; both Texas A&M and Alabama put up 38 against the Razorbacks, while LSU managed 41. The difference is that the Aggies needed 208 plays (18.3 PPH); the Crimson Tide only needed 145 plays (26.2 PPH), and LSU used 149 plays at 27.5 PPH.

This isn't to take anything away from Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are very good, and upsets are always possible. I've also been on record as a big supporter of teams from outside the BCS conferences and argue for more inclusion of legitimate teams into the BCS bowls and less funny business to keep them segregated. But this is one year where the two best teams are so much better than the rest of the field that to deny it would be crazy talk. It sucks that it has to be a rematch, but if you actually want the two best teams to play in the title game, you have no choice but to pit LSU against Alabama.

Again.

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