Monday, November 25, 2013

Week 14: Top 25 -- TFG


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Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 10 - 0 ) 0.979 0.556 49 27.5 5 6.5 1 146.8 125
2 -- Florida St.  ( 10 - 0 ) 0.965 0.433 76 31.4 1 9.0 3 160.5 98
3 -- Wisconsin  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.918 0.553 50 23.3 14 9.4 4 157.4 108
4 +3 Michigan St.  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.894 0.483 70 18.1 51 8.1 2 160.2 99
5 -- Ohio St.  ( 10 - 0 ) 0.892 0.490 67 28.1 4 12.7 17 166.1 71
6 -2 Baylor  ( 8 - 1 ) 0.888 0.587 39 30.8 2 14.2 30 186.7 2
7 +6 Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.872 0.595 34 24.8 11 12.1 13 184.2 5
8 +3 LSU  ( 7 - 3 ) 0.871 0.709 2 25.4 8 12.4 15 160.1 100
9 -1 Louisville  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.853 0.364 95 21.0 24 10.8 5 152.7 123
10 -- Clemson  ( 8 - 1 ) 0.847 0.590 37 23.3 13 12.3 14 182.2 11
11 +3 Missouri  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.843 0.603 33 21.5 18 11.4 10 174.1 32
12 -6 Oregon  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.840 0.538 60 25.0 10 13.4 20 176.0 24
13 -1 Stanford  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.837 0.582 41 20.9 26 11.3 9 156.1 115
14 -5 Texas A&M  ( 7 - 3 ) 0.830 0.636 16 28.7 3 15.8 51 180.6 14
15 -- Arizona St.  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.820 0.629 19 26.2 7 14.8 43 173.9 34
16 +5 Georgia  ( 6 - 4 ) 0.794 0.687 8 26.7 6 16.1 53 168.5 58
17 -1 BYU  ( 6 - 4 ) 0.788 0.632 18 18.3 48 11.1 7 186.6 3
18 -- South Carolina  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.786 0.618 23 21.4 20 13.1 18 160.8 95
19 -- UCF  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.785 0.422 81 23.7 12 14.6 38 158.6 106
20 -3 Kansas St.  ( 6 - 4 ) 0.784 0.609 26 25.1 9 15.4 45 156.9 111
21 -1 Auburn  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.784 0.626 21 21.9 17 13.5 22 167.6 63
22 -- Oklahoma  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.783 0.589 38 22.6 15 14.0 26 162.0 91
23 NA Washington  ( 6 - 4 ) 0.756 0.591 36 21.5 19 14.1 28 173.8 35
24 NA Bowling Green  ( 7 - 3 ) 0.746 0.234 124 18.0 53 12.0 12 154.8 117
25 NA Notre Dame  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.730 0.604 32 19.3 38 13.3 19 163.5 83
Rankings through games of 2013-11-24
Data from CFBStats

New entries: Washington, Bowling Green, Notre Dame.

Dropped out: USC, Boise St., Houston.

We're coming down the home stretch and Alabama and Florida State seem to be a sea of tranquility surrounded by chaos. Baylor loss? Check. SEC East madness? Check. Boise losing a close game because of kicking issues? Check. The rare Oregon-loss-Stanford-loss-Oregon-loss triple lutz? Check. Year-in and year-out the Pac-12 -- Oregon and Stanford in particular -- seems destined to play out the worst-case scenario of a Mexican standoff. Ohio State is waiting in the wings hoping that eventually the chaos will overtake either the Crimson Tide or the Seminoles, ignoring the fact that they've got a large, green speedbump in front of them.

However even the sea of tranquility doesn't look that calm for the top two. TFG has the Crimson Tide as 93% likely to beat Auburn, but Vegas pins the odds a bit closer to 77%. A quick back-of-the-envelope has the Crimson Tide as about 90% favorites over the eventual SEC East winner, meaning Alabama is somewhere between 69% and 84% likely to win out. FSU are heavy favorites against the Gators, and are waiting for whichever team the ACC Coastal will serve up. Currently there's
  • a 49.4% chance it'll be Virginia Tech;
  • a 43.8% chance it'll be Duke;
  • a 3.5% chance of Miami; and
  • a 3.3% chance of Georgia Tech.
Yes, Duke are actually underdogs to a 6-5 UNC squad. TFG says that FSU shouldn't have any issues dealing with any of those teams. Of course, there's always the legal action hanging over Jameis Winston, and that will and should proceed by the book and at its own pace. Well, it should; whether or not it will is another matter altogether.

Ohio State is just two wins away from its second undefeated season, but they've got Michigan State waiting for them in the B1G title game. The Spartans will be the second-best team the Buckeyes have faced this year, and this time Ohio State won't have home field advantage.

For all the Buckeye fans who complain about TFG putting them behind Wisconsin -- a team they beat 31-24 -- answer me this:

Which is the best Pac-12 team: Stanford, Oregon, or Utah?
  1. If you said Oregon, clearly you're wrong because Stanford beat Oregon.
  2. If you said Stanford, clearly you're wrong because Utah beat Stanford.
  3. If you said Utah, clearly you're wrong because Oregon beat Utah.
Sometimes the better team loses, and in this case my computer argues that the better team lost in late September. As it stands, though, Ohio State has about a 40% chance of finishing the season undefeated. Combined with Alabama and FSU's remaining schedule, we have the following odds for title game matchups:
  • 67% chance of Alabama-FSU;
  • 8.6% chance of FSU-Ohio State;
  • 3.5% chance of Alabama-Ohio State;
  • 1.7% chance that Alabama, FSU, and Ohio State all lose before the end of the season; and
  • 19.2% chance of [other].
As to what [other] is, I'm not sure, but Football Study Hall has a pretty good breakdown of the possibilities. Check back in with us next week for updated odds.


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