Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Week 11: Top 25 -- TFG


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Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 8 - 0 ) 0.982 0.501 59 28.3 7 6.2 1 146.3 125
2 -- Florida St.  ( 7 - 0 ) 0.951 0.550 48 30.7 2 10.1 4 158.8 106
3 +1 Baylor  ( 6 - 0 ) 0.913 0.501 60 33.8 1 14.0 29 187.6 3
4 +3 Ohio St.  ( 8 - 0 ) 0.907 0.527 56 29.3 5 12.5 16 163.4 82
5 -2 Oregon  ( 7 - 0 ) 0.904 0.481 66 28.9 6 12.5 15 178.2 19
6 -1 Louisville  ( 6 - 1 ) 0.901 0.385 96 24.3 11 10.6 5 150.4 124
7 -1 Wisconsin  ( 5 - 2 ) 0.893 0.554 47 24.0 13 10.8 7 159.3 101
8 -- Michigan St.  ( 7 - 1 ) 0.891 0.476 68 16.3 65 7.4 2 161.0 94
9 +2 Texas A&M  ( 6 - 2 ) 0.863 0.585 38 30.5 3 15.3 39 179.5 16
10 +5 Clemson  ( 7 - 1 ) 0.849 0.584 39 22.5 18 11.8 12 182.2 14
11 -2 LSU  ( 6 - 2 ) 0.846 0.597 34 24.7 10 13.0 20 162.8 84
12 +4 Missouri  ( 7 - 1 ) 0.836 0.648 17 21.7 21 11.7 11 175.1 30
13 -3 Stanford  ( 7 - 1 ) 0.836 0.589 37 20.9 25 11.3 9 157.4 111
14 -- Arizona St.  ( 5 - 2 ) 0.835 0.643 19 29.5 4 16.0 54 177.0 23
15 +2 Kansas St.  ( 4 - 3 ) 0.834 0.606 30 23.5 15 12.8 19 155.4 118
16 -4 UCF  ( 6 - 1 ) 0.828 0.425 80 25.3 9 14.0 27 158.4 107
17 -4 BYU  ( 6 - 2 ) 0.824 0.590 36 19.2 39 10.7 6 185.8 6
18 +5 Oklahoma St.  ( 6 - 1 ) 0.799 0.575 42 23.7 14 14.1 32 188.8 2
19 +2 South Carolina  ( 7 - 2 ) 0.798 0.622 26 21.4 23 12.8 18 161.2 90
20 -1 Georgia  ( 5 - 3 ) 0.797 0.729 4 26.0 8 15.6 45 166.6 65
21 +3 USC  ( 6 - 3 ) 0.794 0.626 23 18.7 42 11.2 8 154.1 119
22 -4 Florida  ( 4 - 4 ) 0.775 0.669 13 15.8 71 9.9 3 152.6 122
23 -3 Oklahoma  ( 7 - 1 ) 0.771 0.550 49 22.1 19 14.0 28 161.6 89
24 NA Texas  ( 6 - 2 ) 0.754 0.545 51 21.6 22 14.2 33 172.4 38
25 NA Utah St.  ( 4 - 4 ) 0.747 0.441 76 17.9 48 11.9 13 173.5 31
Rankings through games of 2013-11-03
Data from CFBStats

New entries: Texas, Utah St..

Dropped out: Notre Dame, Michigan.

[ This was originally posted without text. I've now had a chance to go back and do a write-up. ]

Poor Oregon. The Ducks just can't get any love from my computer. They have one off week, and not only do they stay #3 in the BCS rankings, but they get leapfrogged by both Baylor and Ohio State. Obviously they'll have a chance to fix that on Thursday against (13) Stanford. The Cardinal are basically the same team as last year -- the defense is off by 1.4 PPH, and the offense is down by 0.7 PPH from the start of the year -- so we'll see what happens in Palo Alto. The Ducks will need to make a statement, since after the Cardinal they're going to play the #41, #42, and #43 teams in our rankings (huh). I know there are a lot of people who want to see an Alabama-Oregon title matchup, and if Oregon ends up making it to the title game this year over FSU, Baylor, and Ohio State, you could argue that this would be the equivalent of a "Lifetime Achievement Award" berth in order to make up for the last few years where they came oh so close.

The Bears continue to make progress through all offense and a so-so defense -- we'll call that the "pre-2011 Oregon" model -- whereas the Buckeyes are actually making progress on both sides of the ball. Going back and comparing the current rankings to the start of the year and we see that Ohio State has picked up 5.8 PPH on offense and clamped down by 3.2 PPH on defense. It's really the second one that has helped the Buckeyes climb in the rankings.

Kansas State continues to hang around and even climb in the rankings, serving as a reminder that these as predictive of future performance rather than a reward for their previous win-loss records. Bad wins and good losses do matter. After blowing out (80) Iowa State, the Wildcats have a chance to demonstrate this when they visit (37) Texas Tech this week.

Is it just more, or do Georgia and South Carolina play to each other's level year-in and year-out? I'm not talking about only against each other, but in general. They were ranked #8 and #9 last year, and now they're at #19 and #20 this year.

Finally, this year appears to be payback for Oklahoma in return for all those years where my computer loved good Sooner teams with bad records. They're now 7-1, but tucked nicely between 4-4 (22) Florida and 4-4 (25) Utah State.


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