Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Week 12: Top 25 -- TFG


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Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 9 - 0 ) 0.981 0.543 49 28.4 5 6.5 1 145.8 125
2 -- Florida St.  ( 8 - 0 ) 0.960 0.496 65 30.8 2 9.3 3 159.9 100
3 -- Baylor  ( 7 - 0 ) 0.927 0.531 52 33.7 1 13.0 20 187.5 3
4 -- Ohio St.  ( 8 - 0 ) 0.908 0.524 59 29.2 4 12.4 13 163.9 79
5 +2 Wisconsin  ( 6 - 2 ) 0.896 0.580 39 24.1 12 10.7 4 159.7 102
6 +2 Michigan St.  ( 7 - 1 ) 0.891 0.464 71 16.2 66 7.3 2 160.9 93
7 -2 Oregon  ( 7 - 1 ) 0.882 0.516 60 27.3 6 12.8 18 177.3 23
8 -2 Louisville  ( 7 - 1 ) 0.880 0.340 105 22.8 15 10.8 7 152.6 123
9 +6 Kansas St.  ( 5 - 3 ) 0.851 0.611 26 24.8 10 12.9 19 155.6 116
10 +3 Stanford  ( 8 - 1 ) 0.851 0.633 21 21.5 20 11.2 8 156.8 113
11 -2 Texas A&M  ( 7 - 2 ) 0.848 0.595 34 30.0 3 15.7 51 181.3 14
12 -- Missouri  ( 8 - 1 ) 0.840 0.611 25 21.8 18 11.7 10 174.1 31
13 -2 LSU  ( 6 - 3 ) 0.840 0.673 12 25.0 9 13.4 23 161.7 89
14 -4 Clemson  ( 7 - 1 ) 0.837 0.564 46 22.5 16 12.1 11 181.8 13
15 +3 Oklahoma St.  ( 7 - 1 ) 0.818 0.529 56 23.6 14 13.4 24 187.0 4
16 -2 Arizona St.  ( 6 - 2 ) 0.818 0.628 22 27.3 7 15.5 48 175.9 25
17 -1 UCF  ( 7 - 1 ) 0.817 0.448 76 23.9 13 13.6 26 157.3 111
18 -1 BYU  ( 6 - 3 ) 0.813 0.639 20 18.8 42 10.8 6 186.6 5
19 -- South Carolina  ( 7 - 2 ) 0.794 0.620 23 21.2 23 12.8 17 161.4 91
20 -- Georgia  ( 5 - 3 ) 0.793 0.722 3 25.7 8 15.5 46 166.8 65
21 NA Auburn  ( 8 - 1 ) 0.768 0.589 38 21.0 25 13.4 25 164.5 75
22 -1 USC  ( 7 - 3 ) 0.766 0.574 42 19.5 36 12.5 14 155.0 119
23 NA Georgia Tech  ( 5 - 3 ) 0.747 0.594 35 22.3 17 14.9 42 153.4 121
24 NA Washington  ( 5 - 3 ) 0.733 0.599 32 19.2 38 13.1 21 172.1 40
25 -2 Oklahoma  ( 7 - 2 ) 0.722 0.602 29 20.3 27 14.2 32 161.7 88
Rankings through games of 2013-11-10
Data from CFBStats

New entries: Auburn, Georgia Tech, Washington.

Dropped out: Florida, Texas, Utah St.

Oregon's loss in Palo Alto on Thursday really only codified what the computers have been saying: Alabama and FSU are the two best teams this year. Should these two teams make the title game, it'll be the second year in a row that the TFG #1 and #2 teams meet in the title game. Unlike last year's game, though, this one might actually be competitive. FSU's offense is on par with the A&M squad that took 10 years off Nick Saban's life, but their defense allows points at about half the rate as the Aggies.

Baylor continues to run rampant through a down year in the Big XII. I know the common meme is that a resurgent Texas squad might give the Bears a boost in the rankings -- both in people's minds as well as the computers -- but by a large margin (15) Oklahoma State is going to be the biggest challenge for the Bears.

Ohio State continues to improve, but remains the clear #4 team. Their defense is at a high-level, but not quite elite-level. The likely B1G title game between (4) Ohio State and (6) Michigan State is going to be an interesting battle between an unstoppable force -- the Buckeyes' #4 offense -- and an immovable object -- the Spartans' #2 defense.

Once again I'd like to revisit Kansas State. The Wildcats are now in the TFG top 10, tied with Stanford. With TCU, Kansas, and Oklahoma left on the schedule, Kansas State has a 55.4% chance of finishing 8-3 against FBS teams (and 0-1 against repeat FCS champions North Dakota State).

On a closing note, Georgia and South Carolina continue to cling to each other.


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