Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Week 9: Undefeated ... but for how long? — TFG

Odds as of games through 2018-10-14

Legitimate Title Contenders

Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.937 2 0.566 42 23.8 8 8.7 1 167.0 81
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/08   4 Clemson 28 at  42 Texas A&M 26 161 82.2%
2018/09/15  91 Georgia Southern 7 at  11 Clemson 38 154 96.9%
2018/09/22   5 Clemson 49 at  66 Georgia Tech 21 157 89.1%
2018/09/29  61 Syracuse 23 at   4 Clemson 27 176 93.6%
2018/10/06   4 Clemson 63 at  49 Wake Forest 3 182 83.2%
2018/10/20  14 North Carolina St. 25 at   2 Clemson 32 166 85.4%
2018/10/27   2 Clemson 30 at  60 Florida St. 20 167 88.8%
2018/11/03  86 Louisville 20 at   2 Clemson 37 168 96.8%
2018/11/10   2 Clemson 32 at  45 Boston College 22 171 88.4%
2018/11/17  28 Duke 22 at   2 Clemson 30 167 84.9%
2018/11/24  41 South Carolina 21 at   2 Clemson 31 168 89.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 49.2%
Most difficult game left: November 17, vs Duke Blue Devils, 84.9%


Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.948 1 0.511 57 29.2 2 9.8 2 161.4 110
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  23 Louisville 14 vs   1 Alabama 51 167 89.3%
2018/09/08  75 Arkansas St. 7 at   1 Alabama 57 187 98.4%
2018/09/15   1 Alabama 62 at  39 Mississippi 7 164 91.1%
2018/09/22  20 Texas A&M 23 at   1 Alabama 45 164 95.5%
2018/09/29 119 LA-Lafayette 14 at   1 Alabama 56 144 99.6%
2018/10/06   1 Alabama 65 at 106 Arkansas 31 153 98.2%
2018/10/13  32 Missouri 10 at   1 Alabama 39 159 91.7%
2018/10/20   1 Alabama 35 at  73 Tennessee 21 162 93.1%
2018/11/03   1 Alabama 33 at   8 LSU 27 166 70.7%
2018/11/10  15 Mississippi St. 22 at   1 Alabama 32 160 84.6%
2018/11/24  22 Auburn 22 at   1 Alabama 34 167 85.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 47.7%
Most difficult game left: November 3, at LSU Tigers, 70.7%


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.814 13 0.575 40 21.3 25 12.2 17 173.8 39
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  18 Michigan 17 at  10 Notre Dame 24 161 71.5%
2018/09/08 127 Ball St. 16 at  15 Notre Dame 24 195 99.2%
2018/09/15  43 Vanderbilt 17 at  21 Notre Dame 22 170 79.4%
2018/09/22  23 Notre Dame 56 at  41 Wake Forest 27 197 55.4%
2018/09/29  13 Stanford 17 at  19 Notre Dame 38 169 53.9%
2018/10/06  13 Notre Dame 45 at  24 Virginia Tech 23 180 54.5%
2018/10/13  77 Pittsburgh 14 at  13 Notre Dame 19 153 91.1%
2018/10/27  13 Notre Dame 34 vs  92 Navy 23 162 89.7%
2018/11/03  13 Notre Dame 30 at  50 Northwestern 26 176 70.6%
2018/11/10  60 Florida St. 23 at  13 Notre Dame 31 170 82.3%
2018/11/17  63 Syracuse 28 vs  13 Notre Dame 36 178 80.0%
2018/11/24  13 Notre Dame 31 at  44 USC 26 173 72.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 30.4%
Most difficult game left: November 3, at Northwestern Wildcats, 70.6%


Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.903 4 0.535 52 25.8 3 11.1 6 175.5 34
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01 121 Oregon St. 31 at   4 Ohio St. 77 181 99.2%
2018/09/08 105 Rutgers 3 at   8 Ohio St. 52 166 98.0%
2018/09/15   3 Ohio St. 40 vs  14 TCU 28 187 75.2%
2018/09/22  92 Tulane 6 at   3 Ohio St. 49 161 97.7%
2018/09/29   3 Ohio St. 27 at   7 Penn State 26 190 46.6%
2018/10/06  54 Indiana 26 at   2 Ohio St. 49 188 93.4%
2018/10/13  41 Minnesota 14 at   4 Ohio St. 30 152 90.3%
2018/10/20   4 Ohio St. 32 at  36 Purdue 26 172 73.8%
2018/11/03  78 Nebraska 24 at   4 Ohio St. 40 177 94.0%
2018/11/10   4 Ohio St. 32 at  35 Michigan St. 24 169 79.5%
2018/11/17   4 Ohio St. 35 at  48 Maryland 25 169 85.9%
2018/11/24   3 Michigan 30 at   4 Ohio St. 28 164 48.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 23.0%
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Michigan Wolverines, 48.6%


UCF Knights
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.750 23 0.390 100 22.9 10 15.2 43 179.9 16
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/08/30  15 UCF 56 at 114 Connecticut 17 177 93.1%
2018/09/21  61 FL-Atlantic 36 at  24 UCF 56 187 82.4%
2018/09/29  83 Pittsburgh 14 at  26 UCF 45 166 88.3%
2018/10/06  91 SMU 20 at  23 UCF 48 187 90.6%
2018/10/13  18 UCF 31 at  64 Memphis 30 181 69.2%
2018/10/20  23 UCF 37 at 113 East Carolina 26 178 86.8%
2018/11/01  29 Temple 29 at  23 UCF 32 177 59.1%
2018/11/10  92 Navy 25 at  23 UCF 36 166 87.7%
2018/11/17  52 Cincinnati 27 at  23 UCF 32 176 66.8%
2018/11/23  23 UCF 35 at  55 South Florida 29 182 70.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 21.0%
Most difficult game left: November 1, vs Temple Owls, 59.1%


Long Shots

North Carolina State Wolfpack
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.807 14 0.481 71 23.0 9 13.4 24 165.2 90
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/08 115 Georgia State 7 at  25 North Carolina St. 41 158 95.0%
2018/09/22  22 North Carolina St. 37 at  85 Marshall 20 168 79.7%
2018/09/29  56 Virginia 21 at  17 North Carolina St. 35 159 83.5%
2018/10/06  50 Boston College 23 at  15 North Carolina St. 28 158 83.2%
2018/10/20  14 North Carolina St. 25 at   2 Clemson 32 166 14.6%
2018/10/27  14 North Carolina St. 34 at  63 Syracuse 30 174 69.9%
2018/11/03  60 Florida St. 23 at  14 North Carolina St. 31 166 81.6%
2018/11/08  76 Wake Forest 26 at  14 North Carolina St. 38 177 87.4%
2018/11/17  14 North Carolina St. 36 at  86 Louisville 25 167 87.8%
2018/11/24  14 North Carolina St. 38 at 112 North Carolina 23 168 93.6%
2018/12/01 113 East Carolina 22 at  14 North Carolina St. 37 170 93.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-17.8
Most difficult game left: October 20, at Clemson Tigers, 14.6%


Absolute Phonies

Cincinnati Bearcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.599 52 0.344 112 15.7 89 13.5 26 172.5 51
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01 112 Cincinnati 26 at  68 UCLA 17 174 16.1%
2018/09/08  94 Cincinnati 21 at  81 Miami-OH 0 151 27.9%
2018/09/22  77 Ohio 30 at  69 Cincinnati 34 171 64.9%
2018/09/29  74 Cincinnati 49 at 118 Connecticut 7 171 76.5%
2018/10/06  87 Tulane 21 at  58 Cincinnati 37 175 76.6%
2018/10/20  52 Cincinnati 24 at  29 Temple 29 174 26.5%
2018/10/27  52 Cincinnati 32 at  95 SMU 28 174 66.5%
2018/11/03  92 Navy 23 at  52 Cincinnati 30 162 78.0%
2018/11/10  55 South Florida 27 at  52 Cincinnati 28 178 58.1%
2018/11/17  52 Cincinnati 27 at  23 UCF 32 176 33.2%
2018/11/23 113 East Carolina 23 at  52 Cincinnati 32 174 84.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-44.7
Most difficult game left: October 20, at Temple Owls, 26.5%


South Florida Bulls
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.564 55 0.325 117 17.4 60 15.8 48 184.6 6
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/08  46 Georgia Tech 38 at  38 South Florida 49 175 67.9%
2018/09/15  40 South Florida 25 vs 115 Illinois 19 198 90.7%
2018/09/22  80 East Carolina 13 at  48 South Florida 20 175 78.2%
2018/10/06  38 South Florida 58 at 116 Massachusetts 42 187 84.5%
2018/10/12  45 South Florida 25 at  95 Tulsa 24 193 70.7%
2018/10/20 126 Connecticut 21 at  55 South Florida 39 175 95.9%
2018/10/27  55 South Florida 30 at  49 Houston 35 188 34.0%
2018/11/03  85 Tulane 26 at  55 South Florida 31 175 71.2%
2018/11/10  55 South Florida 27 at  52 Cincinnati 28 178 41.9%
2018/11/17  55 South Florida 27 at  29 Temple 31 180 34.1%
2018/11/23  23 UCF 35 at  55 South Florida 29 182 30.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-100.5
Most difficult game left: November 23, vs UCF Knights, 30.0%


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