Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Week 9: Undefeated ... but for how long? — RBA

Odds as of games through 2018-10-14

Legitimate Title Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.909 1 0.555 9 31.3 1 9.5 3 158.1 130
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  32 Louisville 14 vs   1 Alabama 51 167 91.0%
2018/09/08  79 Arkansas St. 7 at   1 Alabama 57 187 97.1%
2018/09/15   1 Alabama 62 at  40 Mississippi 7 164 95.2%
2018/09/22  19 Texas A&M 23 at   1 Alabama 45 164 93.7%
2018/09/29 124 LA-Lafayette 14 at   1 Alabama 56 144 99.7%
2018/10/06   1 Alabama 65 at 103 Arkansas 31 153 99.1%
2018/10/13  37 Missouri 10 at   1 Alabama 39 159 91.7%
2018/10/20   1 Alabama 49 at  98 Tennessee 20 161 97.0%
2018/11/03   1 Alabama 27 at  11 LSU 21 159 78.0%
2018/11/10  15 Mississippi St. 13 at   1 Alabama 31 161 79.8%
2018/11/24  10 Auburn 14 at   1 Alabama 31 160 74.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 44.9%
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Auburn Tigers, 74.4%


Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.878 3 0.535 49 26.7 3 10.0 6 163.1 117
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01 111 Oregon St. 31 at   3 Ohio St. 77 181 95.9%
2018/09/08 100 Rutgers 3 at   4 Ohio St. 52 166 97.3%
2018/09/15   3 Ohio St. 40 vs  13 TCU 28 187 40.5%
2018/09/22  95 Tulane 6 at   3 Ohio St. 49 161 93.7%
2018/09/29   2 Ohio St. 27 at   6 Penn State 26 190 46.6%
2018/10/06  61 Indiana 26 at   2 Ohio St. 49 188 90.0%
2018/10/13  62 Minnesota 14 at   3 Ohio St. 30 152 91.6%
2018/10/20   3 Ohio St. 35 at  50 Purdue 24 167 86.5%
2018/11/03  71 Nebraska 17 at   3 Ohio St. 52 165 92.8%
2018/11/10   3 Ohio St. 28 at  39 Michigan St. 20 164 84.2%
2018/11/17   3 Ohio St. 41 at  58 Maryland 21 164 88.6%
2018/11/24   4 Michigan 24 at   3 Ohio St. 27 163 57.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 34.6%
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Michigan Wolverines, 57.8%


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.825 6 0.541 37 23.2 9 8.8 1 170.0 46
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/08   3 Clemson 28 at  30 Texas A&M 26 161 77.2%
2018/09/15  97 Georgia Southern 7 at   8 Clemson 38 154 97.4%
2018/09/22   7 Clemson 49 at  64 Georgia Tech 21 157 87.5%
2018/09/29  43 Syracuse 23 at   7 Clemson 27 176 87.7%
2018/10/06   8 Clemson 63 at  52 Wake Forest 3 182 86.4%
2018/10/20  28 North Carolina St. 20 at   6 Clemson 35 169 69.5%
2018/10/27   6 Clemson 31 at  51 Florida St. 20 167 80.5%
2018/11/03  74 Louisville 14 at   6 Clemson 48 167 89.3%
2018/11/10   6 Clemson 34 at  43 Boston College 20 168 76.4%
2018/11/17  20 Duke 17 at   6 Clemson 31 169 65.3%
2018/11/24  19 South Carolina 17 at   6 Clemson 35 164 63.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 15.8%
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs South Carolina Gamecocks, 63.5%


Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.746 18 0.566 2 18.2 45 11.0 11 165.3 95
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  12 Michigan 17 at  17 Notre Dame 24 161 60.6%
2018/09/08 126 Ball St. 16 at  15 Notre Dame 24 195 97.0%
2018/09/15  48 Vanderbilt 17 at  26 Notre Dame 22 170 74.1%
2018/09/22  26 Notre Dame 56 at  54 Wake Forest 27 197 62.6%
2018/09/29  13 Stanford 17 at  20 Notre Dame 38 169 71.1%
2018/10/06  20 Notre Dame 45 at  29 Virginia Tech 23 180 43.3%
2018/10/13  65 Pittsburgh 14 at  18 Notre Dame 19 153 77.9%
2018/10/27  18 Notre Dame 27 vs  89 Navy 21 161 82.0%
2018/11/03  18 Notre Dame 25 at  49 Northwestern 24 170 67.4%
2018/11/10  51 Florida St. 17 at  18 Notre Dame 34 165 69.4%
2018/11/17  48 Syracuse 20 vs  18 Notre Dame 34 166 66.9%
2018/11/24  18 Notre Dame 28 at  34 USC 27 166 59.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 15.2%
Most difficult game left: November 24, at USC Trojans, 59.1%


Long Shots

UCF Knights
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.768 13 0.467 91 24.1 8 13.9 39 166.1 82
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/08/30  25 UCF 56 at 116 Connecticut 17 177 90.5%
2018/09/21  80 FL-Atlantic 36 at  25 UCF 56 187 80.7%
2018/09/29  65 Pittsburgh 14 at  24 UCF 45 166 62.2%
2018/10/06  96 SMU 20 at  14 UCF 48 187 86.5%
2018/10/13  13 UCF 31 at  55 Memphis 30 181 76.1%
2018/10/20  13 UCF 45 at 104 East Carolina 17 169 91.1%
2018/11/01  45 Temple 24 at  13 UCF 38 164 70.3%
2018/11/10  89 Navy 20 at  13 UCF 35 161 84.8%
2018/11/17  64 Cincinnati 20 at  13 UCF 42 168 79.5%
2018/11/23  13 UCF 35 at  46 South Florida 36 168 29.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 12.8%
Most difficult game left: November 23, at South Florida Bulls, 29.7%


South Florida Bulls
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.612 46 0.510 62 20.6 25 16.7 68 170.3 43
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/08  59 Georgia Tech 38 at  39 South Florida 49 175 60.0%
2018/09/15  44 South Florida 25 vs 111 Illinois 19 198 87.2%
2018/09/22  88 East Carolina 13 at  50 South Florida 20 175 86.2%
2018/10/06  42 South Florida 58 at 113 Massachusetts 42 187 87.5%
2018/10/12  46 South Florida 25 at  95 Tulsa 24 193 76.0%
2018/10/20 127 Connecticut 14 at  46 South Florida 42 168 94.5%
2018/10/27  46 South Florida 31 at  47 Houston 35 174 48.4%
2018/11/03  86 Tulane 21 at  46 South Florida 38 169 74.9%
2018/11/10  46 South Florida 31 at  64 Cincinnati 28 170 62.2%
2018/11/17  46 South Florida 31 at  45 Temple 34 166 50.0%
2018/11/23  13 UCF 35 at  46 South Florida 36 168 70.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-13.4
Most difficult game left: October 27, at Houston Cougars, 48.4%


North Carolina State Wolfpack
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.701 28 0.529 54 19.9 35 12.9 29 168.3 64
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/08 124 Georgia State 7 at  37 North Carolina St. 41 158 94.9%
2018/09/22  28 North Carolina St. 37 at  71 Marshall 20 168 70.9%
2018/09/29  78 Virginia 21 at  26 North Carolina St. 35 159 76.8%
2018/10/06  41 Boston College 23 at  28 North Carolina St. 28 158 60.4%
2018/10/20  28 North Carolina St. 20 at   6 Clemson 35 169 30.5%
2018/10/27  28 North Carolina St. 28 at  48 Syracuse 29 167 38.4%
2018/11/03  51 Florida St. 21 at  28 North Carolina St. 31 167 64.3%
2018/11/08  54 Wake Forest 21 at  28 North Carolina St. 38 168 65.6%
2018/11/17  28 North Carolina St. 35 at  74 Louisville 24 167 78.5%
2018/11/24  28 North Carolina St. 35 at 100 North Carolina 21 168 85.7%
2018/12/01 104 East Carolina 13 at  28 North Carolina St. 45 170 87.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-34.6
Most difficult game left: October 20, at Clemson Tigers, 30.5%


Absolute Phonies

Cincinnati Bearcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.512 64 0.491 72 15.4 81 15.0 51 170.4 42
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01 115 Cincinnati 26 at  61 UCLA 17 174 17.5%
2018/09/08  96 Cincinnati 21 at 104 Miami-OH 0 151 44.6%
2018/09/22  68 Ohio 30 at  82 Cincinnati 34 171 21.6%
2018/09/29  71 Cincinnati 49 at 125 Connecticut 7 171 81.8%
2018/10/06  86 Tulane 21 at  62 Cincinnati 37 175 69.9%
2018/10/20  64 Cincinnati 21 at  45 Temple 34 166 37.9%
2018/10/27  64 Cincinnati 34 at  97 SMU 28 169 68.1%
2018/11/03  89 Navy 24 at  64 Cincinnati 34 164 58.9%
2018/11/10  46 South Florida 31 at  64 Cincinnati 28 170 37.8%
2018/11/17  64 Cincinnati 20 at  13 UCF 42 168 20.5%
2018/11/23 104 East Carolina 20 at  64 Cincinnati 38 171 72.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-117.1
Most difficult game left: November 17, at UCF Knights, 20.5%


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